2014 NHL Draft: The Electric Eel, The Nylander Son, or The Finnish Canadian?

[theIceWookie]

Old Thread was over 1000. Here it is for reference. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1649501

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[mydnyte]

2014 NHL Entry Draft: Leafs Select 8th Overall, 68th.,94th.,103rd.,128th.,158th

my take on big players is this...
would you still rank this player as high (or take this player) if he was only 6'.0" (or 5'.11") 175lbs (which is average)

...in the cases of Ritchie i'd say NO

also, the Max ideal weight for someone 6'2" is 194 (add 10 lbs for the real world), and he's still 25 lbs overweight

He's going to be another Byfuglien

 

[FlareKnight]

Talent is talent though. It doesn't just magically change when a player jumps to the next level. It's constant in the player. It's going to be the same at one level as it is at the next. Now factors influence how able to use that talent a player is but I'm not sure I agree with you on size. It's a factor but I think it's a factor that is pretty overstated in teh NHL and on these boards.

The thing with size is that people forget that it's as big an issue for that awkward big guy as it is the small guy. I don't think you understand the issue of size at one level to the next. The 6 foot 2 guy might be able to dominant at a lower level because of his size. He'll be able to push around the smaller guys, bull to the net, and generally look bigger and faster because he's just so much more physically adept. When he jumps to the next level, it's soooo much harder to do what he did at the lower levels and do it again at the NHL level. That's why you see big guys like Pouliot get picked high and become pedestrian NHLers. They had less talent and depended on the physical gifts they had.

The small guy by comparison, has always played against people bigger than him. Always. From when he basically made it in high end hockey and at every level he's played at. The whole "he'll get pushed around at the NHL" is the same thing he's had at every level. If he's sub 5 foot 11, he's going to get physically dominated. Players at the NHL level may be bigger than the OHL level but they are still going to push him around just as much. That's why he develops a skill of not getting caught or playing feisty (like Gallagher). The best players take what they have and use it to their advantage. Why is a player like Gaudreau so successful at every level he plays? He knows that he's smaller than everyone and its damn near impossible to catch him, so he uses that to his advantage.

Big players don't just develop talent once they fill out, they just get some of the more technical skills that small guys have already developed. That's the big thing. They get balance, they can fine tune their stick handling, they can fine tune skating (this is a big one. Try adding an inch to you gait every year until your 19 and gaining weight every time you do. It would play havoc with your technical skills. Trust me, I have a keen understanding of this, I'm 6 foot 9). So putting it together is more fine tuning the technical skills they have. It doesn't mean they will be the better player, it just means that they are usually the less refined player.

Which could be a reason to take him higher but only if those skills are likely to lead to a better player. From what I've seen this fine tuning gets overrated a ton, and skilled players get passed over because they are smaller, with teams instead going to bigger players because of a mythical "what if" factor.

People like to say "oh it's rare that a small player becomes St Louis or Gallagher" but it's no more rare than a big player figuring it out and becoming a Getzlaf. I'd bet it's similar levels of rarity.

The one issue I have with this is that it seems to underestimate the difficulties for the smaller player at the next level. Just because the risk of being pushed around exists at every level, doesn't mean it's the level of risk at every level. It's one thing to avoid the bruisers in junior than the NHL. The size difference exists, but also the speed difference. The smaller guys have to be just that much better to avoid getting destroyed.

Sadly the larger players have a better chance to have a safety net. If they don't become the next Getzlaf they can still become a good NHL player. If the small guy can't become top notch he's not going to be there at all.

Between a large player figuring things out and a smaller player becoming the next small skilled NHLer, the rarity is a complete shot in the dark and not even worth discussing. In both cases you are somewhat dealing with boom and bust results, just one having a much worse bust.

 

[mydnyte]

my take on big players is this...
would you still rank this player as high (or take this player) if he was only 6'.0" (or 5'.11") 175lbs (which is average)

...in the cases of Ritchie i'd say NO

also, the Max ideal weight for someone 6'2" is 194 (add 10 lbs for the real world), and he's still 25 lbs overweight

He's going to be another Byfuglien

 

[BertCorbeau]

I have more confidence in Burke and Morrison, rather than Nonis and Morrison. But Nonis can go a long way in rectifying this by showing me some out of the box thinking and not go with the obvious drafting a player with size and skill approach.

We need difference makers, not size and some skill. Draft a star, draft the BPA.

In fairness Nonis has only had 1 draft to base this on - personally I think he did a good job based on the progress of the prospects they picked to date.. Now I understand you're not a fan of the Gauthier pick, but Freddy improved his play significantly in 2014 particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs

Verhaeghe looks very promising and so does Herzog .. Bibeau put up good numbers on a relatively poor team (IIRC he was traded in season as well) and as outplayed Fucale as per one poster on this board in their playoff series .. And Johnson was the rookie of the year in the Swedish league

But I do believe BPA is the way to go and the Leafs prospect pool needs some high end talent with elite skill that has some potential star power .. Wouldn't be opposed to this type of pick at all, including Fabbri

 

[67Cup]

Well, I can't match you at 6'9" but I did top out at a hair under 6'6" so I do know about the awkwardness of growth spurts. In fact, I think a lot of what you wrote is a more detailed version of what I was saying. There is a lot of physical catching up for the bigger guy, in many cases. I tried to say as clearly as I could, that it is not all about size. In fact, I said it twice in a short post. I was, however, trying to argue against some previous posters who seemingly dismissed size as a factor entirely.


On a slightly different note: you are right that there are players that thrive in junior only because they are bigger and stronger than their peers. Their game doesn't translate when they move up a level and have to play against men who are just as big and strong but have more all around skill. But it can work the same way with players who thrive in junior on pure speed. Their game may not translate when they move up to a level where most players are really fast. I learned that years ago watching a player called Ken Yaremchuk.

I stand by my general point that scouts are not looking for present junior success as much as they are for projectability and that size does tend to project better. I concede cheerfully that it is never size alone. Otherwise you and I would have been in the NHL!

 

[BertCorbeau]

I have more confidence in Burke and Morrison, rather than Nonis and Morrison. But Nonis can go a long way in rectifying this by showing me some out of the box thinking and not go with the obvious drafting a player with size and skill approach.

We need difference makers, not size and some skill. Draft a star, draft the BPA.

In fairness Nonis has only had 1 draft to base this on - personally I think he did a good job based on the progress of the prospects they picked to date.. Now I understand you're not a fan of the Gauthier pick, but Freddy improved his play significantly in 2014 particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs

Verhaeghe looks very promising and so does Herzog .. Bibeau put up good numbers on a relatively poor team (IIRC he was traded in season as well) and as outplayed Fucale as per one poster on this board in their playoff series .. And Johnson was the rookie of the year in the Swedish league

But I do believe BPA is the way to go and the Leafs prospect pool needs some high end talent with elite skill that has some potential star power .. Wouldn't be opposed to this type of pick at all, including Fabbri

 

[calcal798]

I have more confidence in Burke and Morrison, rather than Nonis and Morrison. But Nonis can go a long way in rectifying this by showing me some out of the box thinking and not go with the obvious drafting a player with size and skill approach.

We need difference makers, not size and some skill. Draft a star, draft the BPA.

How do you have more confidence in Burke and Morrison? Nonis has had one draft, and from that draft with five picks, he selected Herzog, Verhaeghe, Gauthier and Johnson. I'm more then happy with those draft picks.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

In fairness Nonis has only had 1 draft to base this on - personally I think he did a good job based on the progress of the prospects they picked to date.. Now I understand you're not a fan of the Gauthier pick, but Freddy improved his play significantly in 2014 particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs

Verhaeghe looks very promising and so does Herzog .. Bibeau put up good numbers on a relatively poor team (IIRC he was traded in season as well) and as outplayed Fucale as per one poster on this board in their playoff series .. And Johnson was the rookie of the year in the Swedish league

But I do believe BPA is the way to go and the Leafs prospect pool needs some high end talent with elite skill that has some potential star power .. Wouldn't be opposed to this type of pick at all, including Fabbri

I can grow to love Gauthier if we pick a possible #1C this draft like Fabbri.

The only way to get quality Centers is to draft them.

If Fabbri can develop into a #1C, trustworthy Bozak as #2C, and Gauthier as our Hanzal at #3C, with Sam Carrick at #4. I would love our depth down the middle. A little of everything in these 4 guys. That's what a team needs.

 

[7even]

In fairness Nonis has only had 1 draft to base this on - personally I think he did a good job based on the progress of the prospects they picked to date.. Now I understand you're not a fan of the Gauthier pick, but Freddy improved his play significantly in 2014 particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs

Verhaeghe looks very promising and so does Herzog .. Bibeau put up good numbers on a relatively poor team (IIRC he was traded in season as well) and as outplayed Fucale as per one poster on this board in their playoff series .. And Johnson was the rookie of the year in the Swedish league

But I do believe BPA is the way to go and the Leafs prospect pool needs some high end talent with elite skill that has some potential star power .. Wouldn't be opposed to this type of pick at all, including Fabbri

Fabbri is going to make a team very happy. Ridiculously skilled. Reminds me of Kadri.

 

[theIceWookie]

2014 NHL Entry Draft: Leafs Select 8th Overall, 68th.,94th.,103rd.,128th.,158th

Well, I can't match you at 6'9" but I did top out at a hair under 6'6" so I do know about the awkwardness of growth spurts. In fact, I think a lot of what you wrote is a more detailed version of what I was saying. There is a lot of physical catching up for the bigger guy, in many cases. I tried to say as clearly as I could, that it is not all about size. In fact, I said it twice in a short post. I was, however, trying to argue against some previous posters who seemingly dismissed size as a factor entirely.


On a slightly different note: you are right that there are players that thrive in junior only because they are bigger and stronger than their peers. Their game doesn't translate when they move up a level and have to play against men who are just as big and strong but have more all around skill. But it can work the same way with players who thrive in junior on pure speed. Their game may not translate when they move up to a level where most players are really fast. I learned that years ago watching a player called Ken Yaremchuk.

I stand by my general point that scouts are not looking for present junior success as much as they are for projectability and that size does tend to project better. I concede cheerfully that it is never size alone. Otherwise you and I would have been in the NHL!

As I was writing it, I realized it was basically a more detailed version of what you were writing, but maybe with a little defense for someone smaller haha.

I meant to mention that at the end of the post but didn't.

 

[theIceWookie]

In fairness Nonis has only had 1 draft to base this on - personally I think he did a good job based on the progress of the prospects they picked to date.. Now I understand you're not a fan of the Gauthier pick, but Freddy improved his play significantly in 2014 particularly down the stretch and into the playoffs

Verhaeghe looks very promising and so does Herzog .. Bibeau put up good numbers on a relatively poor team (IIRC he was traded in season as well) and as outplayed Fucale as per one poster on this board in their playoff series .. And Johnson was the rookie of the year in the Swedish league

But I do believe BPA is the way to go and the Leafs prospect pool needs some high end talent with elite skill that has some potential star power .. Wouldn't be opposed to this type of pick at all, including Fabbri

In one draft he's done a pretty good job I think, given early returns. Like you said, for all the crap Gauthier received, he stepped it up when it mattered. He played very well in 2014 too, just started out slowly in 2013. And he was basically the worst pick we had last year. Every other pick has performed very well.

I'm really not too worried. The past three years have been good in the late rounds. We're having some players show some serious good potential for where they were picked.

And every top ten pick we've had has been a good one (save for Schenn but it was widely reported that Fletcher strong handed this pick, so I'll give the scouts a pass). Rielly is looking to be a stud, Kadri was a much better pick than virtually anyone taken after him until Kreider was taken at like 20.

So I'm not all that worried. I'm pretty confident that whoever Morrison and Co pick, it will be a good player. Even if it's a guy that I'd rather slip to someone else.

 

[Daisy Jane]

You know.... I think we're forgetting one teeny tiny thing.
Nonis won't have the final say. Not this year. Shanahan will. So this changes things, eh?

 

[theIceWookie]

You know.... I think we're forgetting one teeny tiny thing.
Nonis won't have the final say. Not this year. Shanahan will. So this changes things, eh?

Not really. Didn't he basically say that he would spend the year sort of watching the team go forward and letting Nonis do what he does?

 

[SprDaVE]

Fabbri is going to make a team very happy. Ridiculously skilled. Reminds me of Kadri.

Are you sure? Seems like Kadri doesn't make many Leaf fans happy.......................

 

[Daisy Jane]

Not really. Didn't he basically say that he would spend the year sort of watching the team go forward and letting Nonis do what he does?

Did he really say he'd take a year to see the team go forward? Wowzer. (I truthfully can't remember him saying or not saying that - so if that's true - well. never mind). I was like, wait? Maybe Shanny may want say... X instead of how Nonis would go Y.

i just enjoy watching y'all talk about junior people anyway. I have zero horse in this race

 

[theIceWookie]

Did he really say he'd take a year to see the team go forward? Wowzer. (I truthfully can't remember him saying or not saying that - so if that's true - well. never mind). I was like, wait? Maybe Shanny may want say... X instead of how Nonis would go Y.

i just enjoy watching y'all talk about junior people anyway. I have zero horse in this race

That's what I thought I heard. I could be wrong. He may have but didn't really mean it. I'm not sure haha.

Hopefully he doesn't mess with things too much scouting wise. It's already almost May and for him to start changing things on the scouts...it could be potentially disastrous in my opinion.

 

[Trapper]

That's what I thought I heard. I could be wrong. He may have but didn't really mean it. I'm not sure haha.

Hopefully he doesn't mess with things too much scouting wise. It's already almost May and for him to start changing things on the scouts...it could be potentially disastrous in my opinion.

The first thing I understood would happen is an assessment of the entire organization.
Carlyle's fate will be decided but we will hear nothing until the 1st round of the playoffs is done.
What happens next is anyone's guess.

 

[Daisy Jane]

That's what I thought I heard. I could be wrong. He may have but didn't really mean it. I'm not sure haha.

Hopefully he doesn't mess with things too much scouting wise. It's already almost May and for him to start changing things on the scouts...it could be potentially disastrous in my opinion.

oh i doubt scouting is touched until August. no one is that dumb to fire scouts this close to draft weekend anyway (and no one would release scouts to us (or even execs) until after the draft - or they'd be hired but can't work with the Leafs.

 

[SarcazemKadri]

Have a feeling we take a serious look at Jared McCann at #8. I've said it before and I will say it again - he has soo much more potential then his stat-line indicates.

 

[theIceWookie]

oh i doubt scouting is touched until August. no one is that dumb to fire scouts this close to draft weekend anyway (and no one would release scouts to us (or even execs) until after the draft - or they'd be hired but can't work with the Leafs.

The Bruins fired their head of scouting last year in June before the draft lol.

I guess it could happen. Theoretically anyways. Just would be kind of crazy.

Columbus fired four scouts directly after the 2012 draft. Which is almost more odd.

 

[BigWilly]

Fabbri is going to make a team very happy. Ridiculously skilled. Reminds me of Kadri.

Not as skilled as Kadri, but he's one of the smartest players I've ever watched. Combine that with his crazy work ethic, and this kid will be a player.

My guess is he'll be the heart of a team like a NYR Callahan.

 

[theIceWookie]

Have a feeling we take a serious look at Jared McCann at #8. I've said it before and I will say it again - he has soo much more potential then his stat-line indicates.

What concerns me about him is that he's already making the safe play at the OHL level. He's not going to just suddenly start playing more offensive.

I really would rather prefer we have someone with more offensive punch to their game. I just don't really see that kind of offensive punch in McCann.

I guess it's certainly possible he could be more restrained by his coach, but I'm iffy on him.

 

[Ace88*]

No he wouldn't. If Fabbri was 6 foot 3 and 200 pounds, it would significantly affect his development.

I don't think people understand that certain things influence how a player develops. Canada puts out a ton of hockey players because we have a culture that supports hockey and naturally more people play it. It's the same concept with a player, just on a micro level.

A small player develops teh way he does BECAUSE he's small. A tall and big player develops teh way he does BECAUSE he's big.

That's why the Flames took Jankowksi so high. He developed most of his life as a small player but had a huge growth spurt and became a big player. It was incredibly intriguing. What do you get when you have the skills and development of a 5 foot 8 player in the body of a 6 foot 3 player?

Every year someone always says "if so and so player was just 6 foot 3". It's just a wrong statement. If they weree that size, they would have developed COMPLETELY differently.

lol i agree so hard. I love when people try to pick and choose things like this to put in a vacuum. Guys like Fabbri and Fiala have the motors they have because they evolved as players out of necessity to play that style. If they played passively and with less aggression they'd get killed out there. It's totally illogical to say that because they are such high energy players at 5'11 they'd be monster players at 6'3. That's just not true. It's a matter of evolution, like saying that if chimpanzees had developed smarter brains, their extremely dextrous hands and feet and tails would be put to better use. Well, no, that's not the case, as we see with humans today.

This is why players such as Ritchie are slated to go in the top 10. He's a big guy with little guy skills. Look at Anthony Davis in the NBA--he developed as a point guard because he was only like 6' til a few years ago, then hit a massive spurt and he's now a 6'11 C that plays like a point guard. Those kinds of mixes are intriguing in pro sports because they're so rare.

 

[Trapper]

What concerns me about him is that he's already making the safe play at the OHL level. He's not going to just suddenly start playing more offensive.

I really would rather prefer we have someone with more offensive punch to their game. I just don't really see that kind of offensive punch in McCann.

I guess it's certainly possible he could be more restrained by his coach, but I'm iffy on him.

As I said before with McCann, he has the same output as O'Reilly in his draft year and plays the same high compete 2-way game. Is he elite? No. Is he the safe pick? He's better than a safe pick. IMO he can develop into that strong 2-way 2nd line center. A Mike Fisher. Ryan O'Reilly. Now depending who's on the board at no. 8 will be a big factor.