2014 NHL Draft Discussion: Part I

[CREW99AW]

Hmmm, this could impact the Isles' decision on the 2014 vs. 2015 pick:

"As we head towards a 2015 draft with two talents that have scouts drooling -- Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid -- the NHL is considering a system that could see the lottery going beyond just the No. 1 overall choice.

There are discussions about having the top three picks, or even the top five, selected this way."

Elliotte Friedman

http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...ughts-changing-odds-in-nhl-draft-lottery.html

I came to post the same info.
I am in favor of putting up roadblocks to stop teams from tanking.

This does make the isles first rounder to Buffalo a tougher decision. I am leaning towards giving up the pick. Isles are sitting on the 4th/5th pick right now. I dislike giving up such a high pick, but would really hate losing out on a generational talent.

 

[blinkman360]

I'm leaning towards you two on this -- McDavid and Eichel are establishing themselves on another level so far. Konecny is putting up impressive numbers and is making people take notice. Hanifin, Zacha, and Barzal are probably of similar upside as Ekblad, Dal Colle, Bennett, Reinhart, and Draisaitl. Although I haven't had a chance to watch Zacha yet.

With the recent rumblings of a new lottery system for 2015 -- you have to consider letting Buffalo have the 2014 pick. I am not as high on Draisaitl and Dal Colle as some others are (both are too similar to Vanek for me, i.e. inconsistent effort levels). So if they are who the Islanders are looking to land in 2014, why bother? Especially if they feel the same way as I do about the players available. And if the cap is only $48 mil, you all know as well as I do what that means about free agency signings. The Isles are very likely to be in the lottery again next year, why give Buffalo a chance? It's too risky. Worst case scenario they still have a shot at guys like Dylan Strome, Paul Bittner, Mitch Marner, Zack Werenski, Oliver Kylington, Colin White, etc. if they don't win or finish bottom five and they are all very good prospects, respectively.

Yup. The 10th overall in '15 should net us a better player than the 5th overall in '14. Even if we make the playoffs and pick 15th, we could still get a similar prospect. Best case: we go deep in the playoffs and I doubt anyone would care about the fact that we passed up a top-5 pick the year prior. Worst case and we flop again, we'll at least get a real reward in the mold of a true game-breaking talent. A guy like Hanifin could end up going 4th or 5th(which is a spot we've picked many teams, possibly again in the '14 draft), and I'd take him over Ekblad 100/100 times.

It will be an unpopular decision at the time, but IMO it will be worth it.

I still say, if we get a shot at Ekblad, we HAVE to take him. The guy is an unbelieveable talent. How many 17 year old 6-4 210 defensemen score 23 goals, AND play on the WJC team before they even get drafted. We have nobody as talented as Ekblad in our D prospect pool. Reinhart-Ekblad-Pulock-Pokka-Pelech-Mayfield-Pedan is just a wonderfully talented D crew, and that doesn't even include De haan and Hamonic. I know last year they were saying Seth Jones was a generational talent, but man, Ekblad is right up there with Jones for young 2-way defensive prospects.

Aaron Ekblad
Defense -- shoots R
Born Feb 7 1996 -- Belle River, ONT
[18 yrs. ago]
Height 6.03 -- Weight 207 [191 cm/94 kg]


2013-14 Barrie Colts OHL 58 23 30 53 91 7

Seth Jones
Defense -- shoots R
Born Oct 3 1994 -- Plano, TX
[19 yrs. ago]
Height 6.04 -- Weight 205 [193 cm/93 kg]

2012-13 Portland Winterhawks WHL 61 14 42 56 33 46

Reminder, Portland was a POWERHOUSE in the WHL, played in the Memorial Cup.

Not only do we have a better defenseman currently in our system, we have two. Both Reinhart and de Haan will be better NHL defensemen than Ekblad when it's all said and done. He's never going to live up to this hype.

 

[doublechili]

The other thing is, sometimes we can get too hung up on a pick being a top 5 or 10 pick as opposed to a 10-20 pick. However, in a strong/deep draft like next year, a 10-20 pick could be as good a player as a 4 or 5-10 pick in a weaker year. From what I've seen, there are 3 guys in 2014 who seem to be top-end talents with relatively few questions. Outside of those 3, blemishes pop up with each guy such that even a 10-20 pick next year could be similar (not even counting the risk factor of McDavid/Eichel, etc.).

The fact is that Snow traded our 2014 pick. He'd have to take the affirmative step of taking it back and deferring next year's pick to Buffalo per the exception built into the trade. I say, unless we're getting a stud, keep the trade as-is and move on. Consider Collberg your 2014 1st rounder (I'm sure that's how it will be spun).

And, I think Snow knows that if it's outside the top 3 and he lets Buffalo have this year's pick, the deal will be done. Whoever Buffalo drafts will probably not be in the NHL next year. If he defers to 2015, he gets to live with the Vanek deal for another year.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I still say, if we get a shot at Ekblad, we HAVE to take him. The guy is an unbelieveable talent. How many 17 year old 6-4 210 defensemen score 23 goals, AND play on the WJC team before they even get drafted. We have nobody as talented as Ekblad in our D prospect pool. Reinhart-Ekblad-Pulock-Pokka-Pelech-Mayfield-Pedan is just a wonderfully talented D crew, and that doesn't even include De haan and Hamonic. I know last year they were saying Seth Jones was a generational talent, but man, Ekblad is right up there with Jones for young 2-way defensive prospects.

Not only do we have a better defenseman currently in our system, we have two. Both Reinhart and de Haan will be better NHL defensemen than Ekblad when it's all said and done. He's never going to live up to this hype.

My feelings on Ekblad fall somewhere in the middle of the above two quotes. I don't think he's got Jones' potential like scott does, but I also think blinkman's really underrating his potential.

Re: the Jones comparison. Keep in mind that because Portland was deep on defense, that meant Jones didn't get the kind of minutes Ekblad does. Particularly on the PP, when their PP ran through Derrick Pouliot. Ekblad is his team's sole option on defense, so every thing runs through him.

Also, you can't underestimate the experience factor. Jones played his one and only season in junior hockey the year he was drafted. So it was essentially his rookie season, where he was learning the pace of the junior game on the fly. Ekblad's had three seasons to hone his craft against junior level competition, so his play this year was helped by having those 2 prior years learning experience.

There's also the "skillsets". Jones is a better skater. He's so smooth for such a big guy, so athletic that you wouldn't even know he's 6'4 the way he moves around the ice. Ekblad isn't slow by any means, but he's also not the skater Jones is. There's also hockey sense; Jones' hockey sense is, IMO, superior to Ekblad's. Ekblad gets by a lot more in junior based on being a man amongst boys, so to speak. Jones got by less on his physicality and more on his hockey sense/skating.

Re: Ekblad versus de Haan and Reinhart. I can't say for certain who will end up being better, as that would require knowledge we'll only have 10 years down the road. Having said that, based exclusively on their skillsets and how they performed at their draft age, and what that projects to, I think Ekblad's upside is greater than either guy's. He's better defensively than de Haan (at the same age), more physical, and has a rocket of a shot. And he's got a much higher offensive upside than Reinhart, while being a better skater, and not much below him defensively.

This is all speculation on my part based on watching all three at the same age (ie. their draft year). But I'd say Ekblad's somewhere in between where scott sees him and where blinkman does.

 

[Beastrt]

Yup. The 10th overall in '15 should net us a better player than the 5th overall in '14. Even if we make the playoffs and pick 15th, we could still get a similar prospect. Best case: we go deep in the playoffs and I doubt anyone would care about the fact that we passed up a top-5 pick the year prior. Worst case and we flop again, we'll at least get a real reward in the mold of a true game-breaking talent. A guy like Hanifin could end up going 4th or 5th(which is a spot we've picked many teams, possibly again in the '14 draft), and I'd take him over Ekblad 100/100 times.

How do we know any of this? i would rather have the 4 or 5 pick this year for the 10th overall next year. Whoever the islanders draft this year is likely closer to the nhl. Im sick of rooting for tanking, i rather just take the solid top 6 player this year. Yes if we are terrible next year which i don't see because everything want terrible this year and we still likely not finish in the top 3. I would rather us focus on putting a winning product on the ice.

 

[boredmale]

Yes if we are terrible next year which i don't see because everything want terrible this year and we still likely not finish in the top 3.

While we might not finish bottom 3 next year, depending how they change the lottery we could be picking bottom 3.

All that being said giving up a top 5/6 pick when you can transfer it to next year just tells the team you plan on losing, it's a really bad message to send to the team no mater how bad the team does. If we finish 5th or 6th what I do is try get Buffalo give us back both picks so it at least looks like you got some value for dropping out this draft, i wouldn't give it straight up.

 

[Bps21*]

Tim Murray actually made a comment relevant to that idea recently. He said something to the effect of depending of where the pick ends up this year that the isles may think the sabres will want to trade them something to get them to give up the pick. But that he's equally fine rolling the dice next year as he is getting another high pick now. Basically he's happy he isn't the one who has to make the choice...and is happy to let whatever becomes of it happen. I wouldn't want to be the one to make the call either. Anything can happen with a prospect taken now, and anything can happen with that pick placement next year. It's a total crapshoot.

 

[N Ireland Nets Fan]

Firstly, there is no way these new ideas on the lottery will be implemented for next season. It would need to be passed by different committees I'd imagine and discussed prior to any changes. I highly doubt any change occurs for next year.

Secondly, there is just no way that Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart or even dal Colle isn't a better prospect than any player available 10th or later in the 1st in 2015, I just completely disagree with what people are saying here.

You tank like crazy this year because in reality we're only tanking for 20 games really since we lost JT so for really short term pain, we add a top prospect to our already stacked system. We sign/trade for a goalie, make signings to reach the cap floor and fight for the playoffs next season, our last on Long Island.

We have so many youngsters gaining valuable experience throughout this season and playing down the stretch that it's going to benefit us long term. Next year, Nelson should look even better along with all our rookies due to understanding the league better and what it takes to get the job done.

With Luongo now in Florida, fully expect the Panthers to overtake us down the stretch and with Edmonton having Scrivens injecting some life for the Oilers, it's likely they pass us as well. I can definitely see us finishing with the 2nd worst record which guarantees one of Ekblad, Bennett or Reinhart. I'd take any of those prospects and run.

We're going to be a much better team next year, we could be really good if we get a good new head coach which is another factor.

 

[Konk]

Yup. The 10th overall in '15 should net us a better player than the 5th overall in '14. Even if we make the playoffs and pick 15th, we could still get a similar prospect. Best case: we go deep in the playoffs and I doubt anyone would care about the fact that we passed up a top-5 pick the year prior. Worst case and we flop again, we'll at least get a real reward in the mold of a true game-breaking talent. A guy like Hanifin could end up going 4th or 5th(which is a spot we've picked many teams, possibly again in the '14 draft), and I'd take him over Ekblad 100/100 times.

This I don't agree with.

As I said, I think McDavid and Eichel are above anyone in 2014 at this point, however, the top 5 in 2014 are similar to prospects 3-7 in 2015. The top end is better and more talented, but from that point on it has yet to be seen if 2015 is as good, better, or worse than 2014. As players emerge over the next year we'll have a better idea as to the depth of the class. This can all change between now and next year.

 

[Levi Walking Bear]

Lottery Standings

5-Calgary, 63 Points, 13 Games Remaining.
4-Islanders, 61 PTS, 12 GR
3-Florida, 60 PTS, 13 GR
2-Edmonton 59 PTS, 12 GR

Islanders next game, Sunday vs Columbus

Here are the "contenders" next few games before Sunday.

Thursday
Buffalo at Edmonton
Florida at Phoenix

Friday
Nashville at Calgary

Saturday
Florida at Los Angeles
Calgary at Edmonton

 

[bluechipbonzo]

Remaining match-up games amongst bottom feeders

Flames
@ Oilers
@Panthers

Oilers
@ Flames
@Sabres

Panthers
@Flames
@ Isles

Islanders
@ Panthers

 

[doublechili]

Firstly, there is no way these new ideas on the lottery will be implemented for next season. It would need to be passed by different committees I'd imagine and discussed prior to any changes. I highly doubt any change occurs for next year.

Secondly, there is just no way that Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart or even dal Colle isn't a better prospect than any player available 10th or later in the 1st in 2015, I just completely disagree with what people are saying here.

NINF, I think they could change the lottery before 2015. I don't recall a whole lot of advance notice when they changed it to allow all 15 non-playoff teams a shot at the #1 pick. I think it just happened.

Re: the second part, I think most posters are saying if it's a top 3 pick this year you keep the 2014 pick, but if it's below that you consider letting Buffalo have it.

 

[doublechili]

My feelings on Ekblad fall somewhere in the middle of the above two quotes. I don't think he's got Jones' potential like scott does, but I also think blinkman's really underrating his potential.

Re: the Jones comparison. Keep in mind that because Portland was deep on defense, that meant Jones didn't get the kind of minutes Ekblad does. Particularly on the PP, when their PP ran through Derrick Pouliot. Ekblad is his team's sole option on defense, so every thing runs through him.

Also, you can't underestimate the experience factor. Jones played his one and only season in junior hockey the year he was drafted. So it was essentially his rookie season, where he was learning the pace of the junior game on the fly. Ekblad's had three seasons to hone his craft against junior level competition, so his play this year was helped by having those 2 prior years learning experience.

There's also the "skillsets". Jones is a better skater. He's so smooth for such a big guy, so athletic that you wouldn't even know he's 6'4 the way he moves around the ice. Ekblad isn't slow by any means, but he's also not the skater Jones is. There's also hockey sense; Jones' hockey sense is, IMO, superior to Ekblad's. Ekblad gets by a lot more in junior based on being a man amongst boys, so to speak. Jones got by less on his physicality and more on his hockey sense/skating.

Re: Ekblad versus de Haan and Reinhart. I can't say for certain who will end up being better, as that would require knowledge we'll only have 10 years down the road. Having said that, based exclusively on their skillsets and how they performed at their draft age, and what that projects to, I think Ekblad's upside is greater than either guy's. He's better defensively than de Haan (at the same age), more physical, and has a rocket of a shot. And he's got a much higher offensive upside than Reinhart, while being a better skater, and not much below him defensively.

This is all speculation on my part based on watching all three at the same age (ie. their draft year). But I'd say Ekblad's somewhere in between where scott sees him and where blinkman does.

STK, on perhaps a scale of 1-10, where would you rate Ekblad on his hockey sense and "calm factor". The Isles seems to really like that (both CDH and appparently Reinhart are rated as smart, calming presences on the back end with a low panic threshold).

 

[MattMartin]

Lottery Standings

5-Calgary, 63 Points, 13 Games Remaining.
4-Islanders, 61 PTS, 12 GR
3-Florida, 60 PTS, 13 GR
2-Edmonton 59 PTS, 12 GR

Islanders next game, Sunday vs Columbus

Here are the "contenders" next few games before Sunday.

Thursday
Buffalo at Edmonton
Florida at Phoenix

Friday
Nashville at Calgary

Saturday
Florida at Los Angeles
Calgary at Edmonton

Last night was Bizarro world in here from just 1 year ago. Last year we were scoreboard watching hoping too make the playoffs. This year we are watching and hoping for a top 3 pick.

In Bizarro world last night, everything fell for us the right way. This might be the few times in the last 20 years that something went our way, of course, for all the wrong damn reasons!!!!!!!!

 

[bigd]

We are in full tank mode now.

 

[MattMartin]

We are in full tank mode now.

Did my Avatar give it away?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

STK, on perhaps a scale of 1-10, where would you rate Ekblad on his hockey sense and "calm factor". The Isles seems to really like that (both CDH and appparently Reinhart are rated as smart, calming presences on the back end with a low panic threshold).

That's a tough one to answer. He's always struck me as the type who has, to this point, dominated more with his physical size than his mind. But that description sells him short, because he's also smart enough to be in position to impose his physical will on the opposition.

On a number scale? He's probably closer to a 7 or 8. I don't think he's got elite hockey sense, but he's still a smart player. To use an extreme example, he's closer to a Shea Weber/Rob Blake presence on the ice than a Nicklas Lidstrom/Scott Niedermayer presence (ie. good hockey sense with great physical gifts versus elite hockey sense).

 

[PWJunior]

We are in full tank mode now.

We've been in full tank mode a lot longer than just now. It's with an exclamation point today.

By Sunday's game, we could be passed by both Florida and Edmonton for the #2 spot.

 

[bigd]

We've been in full tank mode a lot longer than just now. It's with an exclamation point today.

By Sunday's game, we could be passed by both Florida and Edmonton for the #2 spot.

Nothing left to root for except a top pick, again.

 

[doublechili]

That's a tough one to answer. He's always struck me as the type who has, to this point, dominated more with his physical size than his mind. But that description sells him short, because he's also smart enough to be in position to impose his physical will on the opposition.

On a number scale? He's probably closer to a 7 or 8. I don't think he's got elite hockey sense, but he's still a smart player. To use an extreme example, he's closer to a Shea Weber/Rob Blake presence on the ice than a Nicklas Lidstrom/Scott Niedermayer presence (ie. good hockey sense with great physical gifts versus elite hockey sense).

Great, thanks!

 

[scott99]

Lottery Standings

5-Calgary, 63 Points, 13 Games Remaining.
4-Islanders, 61 PTS, 12 GR
3-Florida, 60 PTS, 13 GR
2-Edmonton 59 PTS, 12 GR

Islanders next game, Sunday vs Columbus

Here are the "contenders" next few games before Sunday.

Thursday
Buffalo at EdmontonFlorida at Phoenix

Friday
Nashville at Calgary

Saturday
Florida at Los Angeles
Calgary at Edmonton

REALLY NEED Edmonton to beat Buffalo in that game Thursday, may watch that game since the Isles don't play Thursday. Edmonton wins that game, and we are tied for 3rd worst.

 

[Levi Walking Bear]

Last night was Bizarro world in here from just 1 year ago. Last year we were scoreboard watching hoping too make the playoffs. This year we are watching and hoping for a top 3 pick.

In Bizarro world last night, everything fell for us the right way. This might be the few times in the last 20 years that something went our way, of course, for all the wrong damn reasons!!!!!!!!

Crazy third period, Sharks outshot Panthers 29-2 in third period, Luongo made 28 saves.

 

[islandermaniac]

Crazy third period, Sharks outshot Panthers 29-2 in third period, Luongo made 28 saves.

He makes sure that Florida bests the nyi in the standings. Edmonton also actually tried to improve their team down the stretch by getting scrivens and fasth so i would be shocked if the oil don't fly by the islanders as well...the nyi really are THAT bad.

 

[Beastrt]

He makes sure that Florida bests the nyi in the standings. Edmonton also actually tried to improve their team down the stretch by getting scrivens and fasth so i would be shocked if the oil don't fly by the islanders as well...the nyi really are THAT bad.

I dont think so, we suck at tanking for some reason. Teams like colorado, edmonton (they will be good soon), and Tampa have done way better then us in tanking. They have each had 3 top 3 picks in the last 5 or 6 years and we have only had 1. Most of the time we always get stuck with the 4 or 5th pick and miss out on someone really good the pick or 2 before. Our luck we get 3rd and someone who is better wins the lottery and we are stuck at 4. The dream is we finish 2nd worst and even if we lose the lottery, the worse we wind up is 3.

 

[doublechili]

That's a tough one to answer. He's always struck me as the type who has, to this point, dominated more with his physical size than his mind. But that description sells him short, because he's also smart enough to be in position to impose his physical will on the opposition.

On a number scale? He's probably closer to a 7 or 8. I don't think he's got elite hockey sense, but he's still a smart player. To use an extreme example, he's closer to a Shea Weber/Rob Blake presence on the ice than a Nicklas Lidstrom/Scott Niedermayer presence (ie. good hockey sense with great physical gifts versus elite hockey sense).

Now with a little more time to reply, I really like that description of Ekblad. A d-man like that who is a RH shot is a relatively rare commodity. The issue is BPA vs. need. The Isles have a deep defense pipeline, but they also need help right now on the blueline. If Ekblad is NHL-ready and could take a spot behind Hamonic on the right side, they can deal with the RH depth later if we're fortunate enough that it becomes an issue. So I don't see his position alone as being an issue if they have the opportunity and he's BPA in their opinion.