Speculation: 2013 Off-Season Armchair GM thread

[WantonAbandon]

I think if they roll with Pavs at 3c. Horcoff at 4c can kill penalties, win faceoffs, provide a little O and play good defense. Horcoff is a good utility guy who is judged by his contract.

Last year the Oilers used him in almost every scenario

 

[Negatively Positive]

To the depth fanatics, if the Sharks were to find a way to move Havlat. The Sharks could build a really good third line with Horcoff Pavs, and Burish

Lines would be something like

Burns Thornton TJ

Torres Couture Marleau (Marleau on wrong side sigh)

Horcoff Pavs Burish

Wingles Desi Forward X (Maybe Shep but he would be on the wrong side)

Still too much money for Horcoff

Umm... Torres plays exclusively right wing and Marleau plays left wing and center so why did you switch them? Lol at Burish on 3rd line and claiming depth.

 

[WantonAbandon]

Umm... Torres plays exclusively right wing and Marleau plays left wing and center so why did you switch them? Lol at Burish on 3rd line and claiming depth.

If you want to switch Marleau and Torres than so be it. You under rate Burish. That third line would be good enough to shut down most teams top competition. They wouldn't necessarily be used that way and would probably score a lot of goals.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No I think it would work just fine. Burish is grossly under rated here. Put him with Pavelski and Burish will score 10 goals. Horcoff would likely score 15-20. Pavs would also score 15-20.

Burish is rated just fine around here. He sucks. He blocks a few shots and dives all over the ice. He's not going to score 10 goals because he's just not a good enough hockey player to use reliably on the 3rd line. There's a reason why he hasn't scored 10 goals in a season in his entire career. Horcoff may score 15 goals with Pavs but if that other winger is Burish, it will drag that entire line down. It'd be much better off with Wingels or Galiardi or Sheppard than Burish. Burish should be bought out if they know what's good for them but I know that won't happen.

 

[WantonAbandon]

Burish is rated just fine around here. He sucks. He blocks a few shots and dives all over the ice. He's not going to score 10 goals because he's just not a good enough hockey player to use reliably on the 3rd line. There's a reason why he hasn't scored 10 goals in a season in his entire career. Horcoff may score 15 goals with Pavs but if that other winger is Burish, it will drag that entire line down. It'd be much better off with Wingels or Galiardi or Sheppard than Burish. Burish should be bought out if they know what's good for them but I know that won't happen.

Yeah he could score ten goals with Pavelski pretty easily. And no he is grossly under rated here. Burish has scored 8 in less than 70 games with Dallas and while playing with who?

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

That's a waste of Pavelski if you're putting him in a shutdown role with 2 line mates who suck at offense. There's no point of buying out Havlat if you're replacing him with Shawn ****ing Horcoff.

Gali-JT-Burns
Marleau-Couture-Havlat
Torres-Pavs-Wingels
Sheppard-Desjardins-Burish is much better than what you posted.

 

[do0glas]

if anything youre overrating burish. he isnt a third liner. doesnt have any of the tools except speed. his season that he scored 19 points he was splitting time with ott/benn

horcoff-pavs-wingels
desi-burish-sheppard

would be okay. not great, though. just depends on how you want to use that line.

 

[WantonAbandon]

Yeah he could score ten goals with Pavelski pretty easily. And no he is grossly under rated here. Burish has scored 8 in less than 70 games with Dallas and while playing with who?

Actually I can answer my own question he was playing primarily with Ott.

 

[do0glas]

yeah he could score ten goals with pavelski pretty easily. And no he is grossly under rated here. Burish has scored 8 in less than 70 games with dallas and while playing with who?

brenden morrow mike ribeiro adam burish 4.22%

 

[WantonAbandon]

if anything youre overrating burish. he isnt a third liner. doesnt have any of the tools except speed. his season that he scored 19 points he was splitting time with ott/benn

horcoff-pavs-wingels
desi-burish-sheppard

would be okay. not great, though. just depends on how you want to use that line.

What? The forward he played the most minutes with that season was Wandell by quite a bit. In second was Ott.

 

[Kitten Mittons]

Yeah he could score ten goals with Pavelski pretty easily. And no he is grossly under rated here. Burish has scored 8 in less than 70 games with Dallas and while playing with who?

Ribeiro and Morrow.

 

[do0glas]

What? The forward he played the most minutes with that season was Wandell by quite a bit. In second was Ott.

leftwing lock is a pretty reliable source for this.

he did play with ott but not as much as ribeiro, who is a better playmaker than pavs.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Yah I agree, and we have things they would be interested in. Niemi, Boyle, Pavelski, etc.

Well, I also would say that the chances of SJ getting him are slim. The Penguins are in that area where they don't want draft picks but need a longer-term asset than Boyle.

Little chance that they take Boyle, and little chance DW traded Niemi. Other than Setoguchi/cap reasons, DW doesn't trade quality players who are playing well. Even when he acquired Thornton, Sturm and Stuart were having really bad years. Bernier, Gorges, Kiprusoff, Carle, etc. on and on. Even Setoguchi had kind of worn out his welcome.

We already know that he loves Pavelski and Couture. Much too important to trade, plus the reasons outlined above.

Pittsburgh likely has little interest in Hertl and/or a 1st as the center of the package, even if it would be enough.

I could maybe see the Sharks trading Demers/Irwin, and that isn't going to be nearly enough.

 

[WantonAbandon]

brenden morrow mike ribeiro adam burish 4.22%

Well thank you for agreeing with me. He played over 400 minutes that season with Ott second most was with Wandell, but since he played some minuts with some players who weren't scrubs he actually scored 8 goals in 63 games. Lets give him 400+ minutes with Pavleski and see what happens. Could he score 10 in 81... Oh NO WAY!!!

 

[WantonAbandon]

leftwing lock is a pretty reliable source for this.

he did play with ott but not as much as ribeiro, who is a better playmaker than pavs.

I use stats.hockeyanalysis.com. It breaks it down in minutes

 

[Kitten Mittons]

Goals scored by Burish:

1. assisted by Trevor Daley
2. assisted by Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow
3. assisted by Brenden Morrow
4. assisted by Tom Wandell and Jamie Benn
5. assisted by Michael Ryder and Loui Eriksson
6. assisted by Jake Dowell and Tom Wandell


Assists by Burish:

1. Goal by Vernon Fiddler
2. Goal by Jamie Benn x7
3. Goal by Sheldon Souray (primary assist by Benn)
4. Goal by Brenden Morrow (primary assist by Ribeiro)
5. Goal by Tom Wandell (secondary assist by Benn)
6. Goal by Loui Eriksson (primary assist by Souray)
7. Goal by Tom Wandell

 

[WantonAbandon]

That's a waste of Pavelski if you're putting him in a shutdown role with 2 line mates who suck at offense. There's no point of buying out Havlat if you're replacing him with Shawn ****ing Horcoff.

Gali-JT-Burns
Marleau-Couture-Havlat
Torres-Pavs-Wingels
Sheppard-Desjardins-Burish is much better than what you posted.

He is not in a shutdown line role on that line. Horcoff, Pavs, Burish would be a far better line than the Wellwood, Pavelski, Mitchell line everyone on this board lost their **** over and has caused disappointment every time Pavs isn't on the third line. Horcoff> Wellwood offensively and defensively; Burish is pretty close to Mitchell

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yeah he could score ten goals with Pavelski pretty easily. And no he is grossly under rated here. Burish has scored 8 in less than 70 games with Dallas and while playing with who?

Burish played significant time with Jamie Benn, if I recall correctly. He's not a third liner, he's barely a competent fourth liner.

And to people who want Horcoff... He's done. Like really done. Don't want him at all.

 

[WantonAbandon]

Goals scored by Burish:

1. assisted by Trevor Daley
2. assisted by Mike Ribeiro and Brenden Morrow
3. assisted by Brenden Morrow
4. assisted by Tom Wandell and Jamie Benn
5. assisted by Michael Ryder and Loui Eriksson
6. assisted by Jake Dowell and Tom Wandell


Assists by Burish:

1. Goal by Vernon Fiddler
2. Goal by Jamie Benn x7
3. Goal by Sheldon Souray (primary assist by Benn)
4. Goal by Brenden Morrow (primary assist by Ribeiro)
5. Goal by Tom Wandell (secondary assist by Benn)
6. Goal by Loui Eriksson (primary assist by Souray)
7. Goal by Tom Wandell

He must have scored one on the pp or pk. So he scored 8 in 63 with ott as his most consistent linemate... Yeah Burish has the ability to score 10 in 81

 

[hockeyball]

Well, I also would say that the chances of SJ getting him are slim. The Penguins are in that area where they don't want draft picks but need a longer-term asset than Boyle.

Little chance that they take Boyle, and little chance DW traded Niemi. Other than Setoguchi/cap reasons, DW doesn't trade quality players who are playing well. Even when he acquired Thornton, Sturm and Stuart were having really bad years. Bernier, Gorges, Kiprusoff, Carle, etc. on and on. Even Setoguchi had kind of worn out his welcome.

We already know that he loves Pavelski and Couture. Much too important to trade, plus the reasons outlined above.

Pittsburgh likely has little interest in Hertl and/or a 1st as the center of the package, even if it would be enough.

I could maybe see the Sharks trading Demers/Irwin, and that isn't going to be nearly enough.

While everything you said is completely logical and reasonable...

This is Malkin, a guy considered one of the best players in the game. You can throw all of that stuff out the window if he is available. Malkin keeps the Sharks a powerhouse for the forseeable future and means the Sharks can turn around and trade Thornton to one of the teams that lost out on Malkin. If you don't acquire Malkin, one of your competitors does and it makes them substantially better. This is one the very few players where absolutely no one on the team is off-the table completely. As Malkin is a rental though I probably wouldn't offer up Couture, but beyond that no one is untouchable.

 

[Kitten Mittons]

He must have scored one on the pp or pk. So he scored 8 in 63 with ott as his most consistent linemate... Yeah Burish has the ability to score 10 in 81

He cored 5 goals that weren't assisted by Ribeiro, Morrow, or Neal. And it doesn't matter if he has that ability ; he played a full season only once in his career, his rookie season.

 

[do0glas]

10:35
DAL A. Burish (8) Slap - ASST: J. Williams

10:38
DAL A. Burish (7) Wrist - ASST: M. Ribeiro

19:59
DAL EN - A. Burish (6) Slap - ASST: NONE

13:58
DAL A. Burish (5) Tip-In - ASST: S. Robidas (17) AND N. Grossmann

06:59
DAL A. Burish (4) Deflected - ASST: S. Ott

05:57
DAL A. Burish (3) Backhand - ASST: T. Daley (7) AND B. Segal (3)

13:33
DAL A. Burish (2) Slap - ASST: J. Neal (11) AND K. Lehtonen (1)

06:04
DAL A. Burish (1) Wrist - ASST: M. Ribeiro (6) AND B. Morrow (1)

This is his eight goal season. one was an empty net. 2 were a result of ribeiro/1 neal. 1 was from a 30 point defenseman.

so 4 of 7 goals were with high calibre players.

 

[Juxtaposer]

lol! aw... It's even worse when someone makes a judgment on something they have no practical experience at. Might as well sit up in the observation area watching brain surgery making judgement on what the surgeon is doing when you've never even taken a first aid class.

So, understanding stats isn't the issue... I just didn't know what the terminology for each data point was. I worked in an engineering dept for more than a decade dealing a lot of statistical analysis as it related to design verification test results.... Not my favorite thing but again I have real world expereince with it...

If you know stats so well, then what is your problem with sample size? That's like the first thing you learn in stats, don't trust a small sample size. Yet you insist that his production in the playoffs is important and his production during the regular season wasn't, even though one is a vastly larger sample size.

So what is the equation that generates those numbers? What are the tolerances that are acceptable? I notice you had no answer for that when I asked previously. Truth is you don't know. When boyle is at -5.5 what does that translate to? Is he spending his entire shift in his own zone? Quoting advanced stats is just a way for those with no practical real life experience to try and support their opinions. Doesn't make those that do it right. There is something to be learned from the stats but it isn't the whole story and it takes an experienced eye to determine when the stats are worthwhile and when they should be thrown out.

I don't recall you asking, but I assure you that I do know.

The equation that generates those numbers? I told you, it's shot attempt differential. Shot attempts are shots on goal, goals, missed shots, and blocked shots. Corsi is shot attempt differential per 60 minutes of ice time. A -5.5 ranking means that on average, in 60 minutes of even strength ice time, Boyle has a -5.5 shot attempt differential, which means that teams take 5.5 more shot attempts in that time while Boyle is on the ice than Boyle and his teammates do. That could mean that Boyle/teammates take 40 shot attempts and opponents take 45.5 shot attempts per 60, or that Boyle/teammates take 5 shot attempts and opponents take 10.5. If the former, he would be a high-event player (which he is), if the latter, he'd be a low-event player. Now, guys like Scott Hannan are low event players. That means that he is decent at preventing attempts, but not good at creating attempts either. This is why he is called "good defensively". Guys like Dan Boyle or Matt Irwin are what you call high-event. They give up a lot in their own end, but they also create a lot in the opponent's end.

Now, you can't know who's a high-event player and who's a low-event player just by looking at Corsi. Corsi measures differential, basically who does their job best. Hannan may give up less scoring opportunities than Irwin, but Irwin creates enough in the opponent's end that he ends up with a positive differential, while Hannan blows so much in the offensive end that he can't make up for what shot attempts he yields. So while Hannan is "better defensively" than Irwin, Irwin is the more effective player overall and contributes positively to winning.

Truth is, when talking about athletics, statistics are a very small part. More so for the fans probably... and the scouts to a certain degree. If advanced stats were all that is necessary they wouldn't have to travel around watching these kids play. Once you have the players in the room it's different. Kevin Constantine didn't use any advanced stats to determine which goalie would start each game against the Calgary flames back in 94-95. It was an experienced eye. Psychology is infinitely more important in sports than a math degree...

In the end, the experienced eye is more valuable than all the advanced stats in the world. The sharks employ people who have spent a life time playing and analyzing the sport and it's athletes and they are much more capable of that than anyone here at doing so. So it's largely meaningless and intellectually disingenuous to say that it looks like his play is declining because of an eye test.

One stat that used in conjunction with all these others that is interesting to me is that Boyle finished as a plus player in the regular season. Right behind MEV and Stuart. Ahead of Patty... Extrapolated out it would have been right inline with his typical rating for the season.

In the playoffs he did finish -3 which isn't great but his value on the PP outweighed that IMO. Irwin finished even worse at -4 and Couture finished a team worse -6. Finishing -6 in only 11 games is frickin atrocious... or horrendous as you put it... It's funny you place so much importance on Boyle's playoff stats... extrapolated out he's looking at a 60 point season... In both cases, regular season and playoffs... Boyle logged the most ice time of anyone on the team who wasn't a goaltender..

Even in his best offensive seasons Boyle barely finishes as a plus player. Looks like his best recently was +10. Jeez he had a -29 in like 40 games right before he came to the sharks... obviously he should have retired then...

I'm not sure why you all of a sudden brought +/- into the discussion, but you should know I put absolutely no stock into that stat and think it's garbage.

But you should be aware that many NHL teams use advanced stats, including our very own San Jose Sharks. The Canucks, Penguins, and I think Bruins are a couple others that do. New Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen is a fan of advanced stats. And advanced stats were actually thought up by an NHL player-turned-coach, Jim Corsi: http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/story/2013-04-23/jim-corsi-hockey-definition-nhl-advanced-stats-primer-behind-the-net-fenwick-pdo

I hope I helped you to understand possession stats. Obviously they aren't an end-all be-all to hockey, but they're absolutely a great part of analysis.

 

[NWShark*]

I did not at any point say he'd score as many points as Boyle, or even that it's a good idea,

and that was my point. to be honest I forgot to add the... at the end of my comment... The offensive instinct MEV had in junior have since been beaten out of him...

 

[LadyStanley]

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