2013 Draft Thread IV–June 30 3pm–8 16 38 52 69 129 130 143 159 189–Draft Primer in OP

[jfb392]

He would destroy the Q. The league is a defensive joke.

Regardless of your view of the league, you're missing my point.
Because I see him in a negative light already, I think greater exposure would not help him at all.

If he was in the Q, the attention on him would be magnified exponentially.
Questions about things like his character, coachability, commitment, hockey sense, and style of play would be able to be answered with much more certainty because of increased viewings and the fact that you can find things out very easily through the grapevine.
If he repeatedly showed frustration when faced with adversity like I think he has in my viewings, or even something like he didn't take practice or working out seriously (not saying he does), it wouldn't go unnoticed.
There wouldn't be divides on things like if he has rocks for brains or above average hockey sense.
There's just too many viewings and too many connections between NHL teams and junior teams for those type of things to go unanswered.

In Europe, it's different because it seems like a large chunk of scouts cover the whole continent plus Russia as opposed to just a single smaller region like North America, leading to less viewings and likely less connections that would enable you to answer those types of questions.
It's just much easier to maintain an aura of mystery.

 

[Woodhouse]

6.25 – The Pipeline Show's ISS Draft Preview with Ross MacLean (Part-1, Part-2, Part-3, Part-4, Part-5, Part-6) <120:00>

***

Here's how the segments break down if you want something in particular for the way into work or whatnot:

• Part-1 = Centers: MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm and Monahan
• Part-2 = Centers: Horvat, Lazar, Wennberg, Gauthier, Domi, Petan, Compher, De La Rose, Lodge and Carrier
• Part-3 = Wingers: Drouin, Nichushkin, Shinkaruk, Burakowsky and Mantha
• Part-4 = Blueliners: Jones, Nurse, Zadorov, Ristolainen, Pulock, Morrissey, Bowey and Santini
• Part-5 = Goalies: Fucale, Jarry, McAdam, Desrosiers, Martin, Dekort and Fotinos
• Part-6 = Sleepers & More: Hartman, Rychel, Chase, Nastasiuk, Baptiste, Morin, Heatherington, Cammarata, Descheneau, Bartosak, Kichton, Kanzig, Subban and McCarron

 

[Paxon]

6.25 – The Pipeline Show's ISS Draft Preview with Ross MacLean (Part-1, Part-2, Part-3, Part-4, Part-5, Part-6) <120:00>

***

Here's how the segments break down if you want something in particular for the way into work or whatnot:

• Part-1 = Centers: MacKinnon, Barkov, Lindholm and Monahan
• Part-2 = Centers: Horvat, Lazar, Wennberg, Gauthier, Domi, Petan, Compher, De La Rose, Lodge and Carrier
• Part-3 = Wingers: Drouin, Nichushkin, Shinkaruk, Burakowsky and Mantha
• Part-4 = Blueliners: Jones, Nurse, Zadorov, Ristolainen, Pulock, Morrissey, Bowey and Santini
• Part-5 = Goalies: Fucale, Jarry, McAdam, Desrosiers, Martin, Dekort and Fotinos
• Part-6 = Sleepers & More: Hartman, Rychel, Chase, Nastasiuk, Baptiste, Morin, Heatherington, Cammarata, Descheneau, Bartosak, Kichton, Kanzig, Subban and McCarron

Hook a brother up with a player from Part 1 and one from Part 4, Darcy.

 

[Deevo]

I'm really hoping that someone in front of us (probably EDM) takes Nurse or Risto. That way we're guaranteed one of Lindholm, Monahan, or Nisch.

 

[Chainshot]

Don't look now, but Bob McKenzie has Rasmus Ristolainen at #8.

 

[S319R11S16]

Don't look now, but Bob McKenzie has Rasmus Ristolainen at #8.

That's totally who we are taking.

 

[Chainshot]

That's totally who we are taking.

If it is, I reserve the right to gloat.

 

[Woodhouse]

FYI Devine will be on HH today per Sylvester.

 

[OkimLom]

FYI Devine will be on HH today per Sylvester.

Let the Speculation begin...I wonder how many quotes will be misinterpreted

 

[S319R11S16]

If it is, I reserve the right to gloat.

Seriously hope we don't take 2 d-men in the first.

 

[Woodhouse]

Buzzing The Net - 2013 NHL draft: Scouts preview the top 10 prospects.

 

[couture23]

Buzzing The Net - 2013 NHL draft: Scouts preview the top 10 prospects.

And this one has us taking Lindholm. I honestly think no one can predict this top 10 perfectly.

 

[OkimLom]

And this one has us taking Lindholm. I honestly think no one can predict this top 10 perfectly.

I think these are just RANKING the guys, not saying who will be taken where.

 

[haseoke39]

Let the Speculation begin...I wonder how many quotes will be misinterpreted

I think "all of them" is a safe bet.

 

[Paxon]

When will Devine be on HH? I honestly can't sit and listen through the caller segments to wait for it. I just can't handle the callers WGR gets.

 

[Zip15]

Interesting look into the beginning of analyzing draft prospect player usage despite seemingly a dearth of data:

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition

Much like the AHL gamesheets that Willis made use of, the boxscores in the KHL and SHL (formerly known as SEL) provide data on which players were on the ice for each goal. This gives us a coarse look at the player's competition -- if a player is on the ice for 100 even-strength goals, we get 100 pieces of data on what kinds of players he typically faced. Let's see what we can do with that.

My favorite approach to evaluating quality of competition is to take the average total ice time of the opposing forwards or defensemen that a player faced at even strength. Since the KHL and SHL publish ice time for each player, we can use our competition snapshot to prepare that kind of analysis for players in those leagues.

Here we can see that Valeri Nichushkin got reasonably soft minutes compared to his KHL teammates, going against middling forwards and relatively weak defensemen. That doesn't mean he's not a good player, but it does suggest that similar production from someone facing tougher competition might be more impressive.

Of course, in men's leagues like the KHL and SHL, even the best 17-year-old won't usually be asked to face the opponents' top lines, so Nichushkin's usage might not be all that different from other KHL draft prospects.

The CHL boxscores also record which player was on the ice for each goal, but the CHL unfortunately does not record players' ice time. So we'll need to develop an estimate of ice time if we want to make a plot like this one for a CHL team.

Fortunately, Scott Reynolds gave us a clue on how to do that. The number of goals that a player was on the ice for correlates pretty well to his ice time, at least in the NHL. We can actually refine the estimate a bit by accounting for the team's scoring rate -- if a guy was on the ice for 1/3 of the goals scored for or against his team, then he probably played about 1/3 of the minutes, give or take a little.

Using this method, we can estimate the amount of ice time each player had. For example, we'd guess that Darnell Nurse played about 25 and a half minutes per game, or that the Halifax Mooseheads played Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin about 27 minutes per game, but Martin Frk only 22 and a half. So then we can use those estimated ice times to produce plots similar to the above for CHL players.

You can see from this plot how an elite two-way player like Sean Monahan sees both the opponent's top line and their best defensemen.

In contrast, Max Domi sees significantly weaker opposing forwards, leaving the heavy lifting to teammates like Chris Tierney.

We can also return to Sweden and look at the HockeyAllsvenskan, Sweden's second-tier league. Like the KHL and SHL, the HockeyAllsvenskan is a men's league, but at a distinctly lower level -- and unlike those leagues, it does not publish TOI for each player, so we will have to use the same process we used for the CHL. We can then see that Alexander Wennberg's role in this lower-tier league is more like Domi's than Nichushkin's:

Check it out, it's pretty interesting.

 

[Woodhouse]

And this one has us taking Lindholm. I honestly think no one can predict this top 10 perfectly.

I think these are just RANKING the guys, not saying who will be taken where.

Their mock had Monahan and Zadorov to Buffalo.

When will Devine be on HH? I honestly can't sit and listen through the caller segments to wait for it. I just can't handle the callers WGR gets.

"Just after eleven."

 

[Chainshot]

Interesting look into the beginning of analyzing draft prospect player usage despite seemingly a dearth of data:

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition








Check it out, it's pretty interesting.

Thanks for this. Very interesting.

 

[Zip15]

I wonder if Hamilton sleeps in an Adam Erne jersey at night.

We get it, Paul, you want them to pick Erne at 16. Erne "knows Grigorenko" and "can help Grigorenko" and Erne "plays that power game that Sabres fans crave." Oy.

 

[Chainshot]

I wonder if Hamilton sleeps in an Adam Erne jersey at night.

We get it, Paul, you want them to pick Erne at 16. Erne "knows Grigorenko" and "can help Grigorenko" and Erne "plays that power game that Sabres fans crave." Oy.

Jame's got the electrodes plugged into Paul, clearly.

I missed most of it, just caught the part about the locals at the end.

 

[Zip15]

Jame's got the electrodes plugged into Paul, clearly.

I missed most of it, just caught the part about the locals at the end.

It was almost like he way saying, "Kevin, don't forget about these factors when it comes to Erne!"

Devine says Bailey likely to go in Round 2.

 

[BloFan4Life]

I wonder if Hamilton sleeps in an Adam Erne jersey at night.

We get it, Paul, you want them to pick Erne at 16. Erne "knows Grigorenko" and "can help Grigorenko" and Erne "plays that power game that Sabres fans crave." Oy.

Erne is someone I would target with our 3rd first round pick probably in the 20s. We will get a first for either Vanek or Miller.

 

[stokes84]

Ksly is an abysmal interviewer. He never asks the good questions. You have an interview 10 mins earlier with a guy saying Carolina might move out of 5, yet he can't get around to gauging the interest of moving into that area from Devine? Just a terrible job.

 

[Woodhouse]

I wonder if Hamilton sleeps in an Adam Erne jersey at night.

We get it, Paul, you want them to pick Erne at 16. Erne "knows Grigorenko" and "can help Grigorenko" and Erne "plays that power game that Sabres fans crave." Oy.

Hamilton just wanted validation for that one piece on chemistry he wrote. My gripe is that this is the third straight Devine interview looking for Bailey and Malone insight, as if anything's changed with them from his last answers...change it up.

 

[Chainshot]

Saving.