Prospect Info: 2013 Draft [Part 8]: Unsolved Mysteries: MacKinnon, Drouin or Barkov? 4 Days Remain

[RockLobster]

It might help if you read the thread with this guy in mind:

It was June 18th, 10:46 PM on a hot Summer evening when the 2013 NHL Draft got a little more interesting.

Adrian Dater, Beat Writer for his local sports team, the Colorado Avalanche, posted a Tweet that would contain a link to a news story on the DenverPost.com that baffled the world of many of those following the 2013 NHL Draft.

adater ‏@adater 18 Jun
Avalanche won't take Seth Jones at No. 1, per Denver Post... http://sulia.com/my_thoughts/9e7b8f95-1f4f-465c-afec-e71c06068eb5/?source=twitter …

He went on to say that he believes that MacKinnon is atop of the Avalanche's Draft List.

The next day, a further wrinkle was placed into this enigma. His name? Aleksander Barkov. Renegade Stylings, a respected poster on HFBoards.com and scout for Future Considerations received a tip from a source close to the Avalanche Front Office that said that they had Barkov as their target for the draft.

So just who will be the Avalanche's pick at the 2013 NHL Draft? Was Joe Sakic's comments just a smokescreen and they're still going to get Seth Jones? What about Nathan MacKinnon? If they take a forward, and a Center at that, wouldn't it make sense to take him? And let's not forget Jonathan Drouin, the silky-smooth winger with Hockey IQ oozing out of him. Word has it that Patrick Roy attempted to acquire him while in the QMJHL. And then there's Barkov, who for years was considered a Top 2 (possible 1st overall) pick in this draft. This year he's been seemingly overshadowed by Jones, MacKinnon and Drouin.

To find the answer to this Unsolved Mystery, make sure that you tune in to the 2013 NHL Draft on Sunday, 6/30/13 at 3pm EST!

Previous Thread

[URL="http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1438711"]http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1438711[/URL]

Interesting Developments

-On 6/24/13 BOTH Joe Sakic AND Patrick Roy have given interviews where they say if the Draft were held today that MacKinnon would be the pick.

-Joe Sakic has publicly said that Jones will not (likely) be the draft pick for the Avs. More on that here:

http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche/ci_23489308/avalanche-pass-seth-jones-take-forward-joe-sakic

-Renegade Stylings has heard that Barkov is high on the Avs' draft board, possibly at the top of it. Read more on that at the following link:

http://whl-from-above.blogspot.ca/2013/06/source-barkov-is-true-draft-target-for.html

-To some, Jones=EJ 2.0, but not so fast Freudian says:

Seth Jones hasn't anything to do with EJ. There is no cautionary tale here. Just a monster under the bed you are scared of.

-Roy, Sakic and Co. have publicly stated that they will "Study the possibility of moving out of the #1 Overall"

-Roy will be the one talking trades w/ other GM's, leaving many wonder what Greg Sherman will actually do

-Rumors abounded (6/12/13) that the Buffalo Sabres have talked with the Avs about the #1 pick, and expect to continue to talk up to the Draft.

Jeremy White ‏@JeremyWGR 6h
#Sabres Director of Amateur Scouting says they have talked with Colorado about the 1st pick...expect to continue conversations up to draft.

http://www.trendingbuffalo.com/sports/buffalo-sabres/sabres-talking-trade-with-avalanche-for-top-pick/#

-Stevie Y says that he's not trading up to #1

Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 1h
Yzerman said he doesn't expect to move up from No. 3. Said he doesn't have ammunition to pry No. 1 pick from Avs.

Interesting Articles

"Why The Avs Will Take Seth Jones"

http://www.aspechockey.com/article2.php

"Why The Avs Will Take Nathan MacKinnon"

http://www.aspechockey.com/article1.php

Click to read more...

 

[Freudian]

Perhaps add a poll, asking where people think Avs will pick in the first round.

Options:

1st overall
2nd overall
3rd overall
4th overall
21st overall

 

[InjuredChoker]

Perhaps add a poll, asking where people think Avs will pick in the first round.

Options:

1st overall
2nd overall
3rd overall
4th overall
21st overall

I know what Leafs fans would vote.

 

[RockLobster]

Perhaps add a poll, asking where people think Avs will pick in the first round.

Options:

1st overall
2nd overall
3rd overall
4th overall
21st overall

Done...exactly as you asked.

 

[Freudian]

Voted second. I think Tallon doesn't have the stomach to let MacKinnon slip away, unless Roy gets too greedy and asks for too much. Part prediction/part wish.

 

[henchman21]

There is 1 thing I think people are overlooking when it comes to the Mac vs Barkov debate (FTR I would rather have Mac).... Duchene and Mac are fairly similar centers. Both are ~5'11" 200 lbs. Both rely on their speed. Both have great hands. Both are responsible defensively, but not great defensively. Both have a great work ethic. Etc. If you look at both of their scouting reports coming out of junior, they are shockingly similar. So... maybe the Avs don't want to build around 2 centers that are very similar?

 

[Freudian]

The problem with drafting another center is that it's groundhog day. Avs couldn't give Duchene/Stastny/O'Reilly as centers enough minutes without feeding them PK time. Add another center and you're back where you started, even if you trade Stastny.

Is this town big enough for three 1C/2C two way centers? Probably not, unless you get buy-in in a major way from all three. I don't think trading O'Reilly is the answer. He plays the right way. He will be a playoff beast. I'd rather have it be with us.

It's a shame Avs didn't like Jones enough to pick him #1. It would have been a much better fit in pretty much every way.

 

[ABasin]

The problem with drafting another center is that it's groundhog day. Avs couldn't give Duchene/Stastny/O'Reilly as centers enough minutes without feeding them PK time. Add another center and you're back where you started, even if you trade Stastny.

Is this town big enough for three 1C/2C two way centers? Probably not, unless you get buy-in in a major way from all three. I don't think trading O'Reilly is the answer. He plays the right way. He will be a playoff beast. I'd rather have it be with us.

An interesting topic. It didn't work long term for Pittsburgh, but it has worked so far for Boston (with Seguin at wing). I wonder how long it will work. It also seems to work in LA, but in that case, Carter was willing to move to wing to make it work.

But all of those only had 3 guys. If the Avs draft MacKinnon, they'll have 4. Which is a scenario I can't see working. They have to move Stastny or O'R. I'd also like to keep O'R.

 

[henchman21]

The problem with drafting another center is that it's groundhog day. Avs couldn't give Duchene/Stastny/O'Reilly as centers enough minutes without feeding them PK time. Add another center and you're back where you started, even if you trade Stastny.

Is this town big enough for three 1C/2C two way centers? Probably not, unless you get buy-in in a major way from all three. I don't think trading O'Reilly is the answer. He plays the right way. He will be a playoff beast. I'd rather have it be with us.

It's a shame Avs didn't like Jones enough to pick him #1. It would have been a much better fit in pretty much every way.

I don't think there is a way to get all 4 of them to commit, but 3 is possible IMO. With McLeod and Bordy manning the 4th line,the 4th line should only get ~4-6 minutes a game. That leaves about ~18 minutes a game for the other 3 lines, which is near 1st line minutes.

If one is switched to wing permanently, it might be possible to keep all 4.

IMO the problem child really is ROR. Stastny can move to wing and his game should translate. ROR's talents will be wasted at wing. Also, ROR is too offensively talented to be a #3C, but he isn't more talented than Duchene, MacKinnon/Barkov, or Stastny. His salary is also too high for a #3C. I would prefer to keep him, but it looks difficult right now.

 

[Mr Serious]

I enjoyed reading the synopsis of what has happened until this point.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

The problem with drafting another center is that it's groundhog day. Avs couldn't give Duchene/Stastny/O'Reilly as centers enough minutes without feeding them PK time. Add another center and you're back where you started, even if you trade Stastny.

Is this town big enough for three 1C/2C two way centers? Probably not, unless you get buy-in in a major way from all three. I don't think trading O'Reilly is the answer. He plays the right way. He will be a playoff beast. I'd rather have it be with us.

It's a shame Avs didn't like Jones enough to pick him #1. It would have been a much better fit in pretty much every way.

This is why I said in the previous thread not to invest in a ROR or Stastny jersey. If Mac or Barkov is the pick both men will be traded. Count on it. It makes too much sense playing time wise as well as financially.

 

[tucker3434]

I don't think there is a way to get all 4 of them to commit, but 3 is possible IMO. With McLeod and Bordy manning the 4th line,the 4th line should only get ~4-6 minutes a game. That leaves about ~18 minutes a game for the other 3 lines, which is near 1st line minutes.

If one is switched to wing permanently, it might be possible to keep all 4.

IMO the problem child really is ROR. Stastny can move to wing and his game should translate. ROR's talents will be wasted at wing. Also, ROR is too offensively talented to be a #3C, but he isn't more talented than Duchene, MacKinnon/Barkov, or Stastny. His salary is also too high for a #3C. I would prefer to keep him, but it looks difficult right now.

I think you nailed it. Roll three top lines almost evenly. I'd start the season with:

Xxx-duchene-pap
Landeskog-oreilly-xxx
Xxx-stastny-mackinnon

Fill in the blanks with jones, downie, and mcginn. That's pretty much a constant threat for 50 min a game.

Sign both stastny and oreilly to extensions, and let that be the permanent gameplan with a possible swap of Mac and stastny as needed. This of course, is assuming stastny wants to be here and is okay with this setup. I could easily see him wanting to test the ufa market if we draft another center.

 

[RockLobster]

I enjoyed reading the synopsis of what has happened until this point.

FINALLY somebody who appreciated the work I put into it!

Thanks man, I do appreciate it...hope everyone was hearing Robert Stack's voice as they read it.

 

[CB Joe]

I think the Avs end up trade down with Florida or Tampa. I think Florida and Tampa would hate the idea of their rival getting their guy, and end up paying the price.

 

[AMDZen]

Good work indeed lobster, good work indeed

 

[raistlin76]

There is 1 thing I think people are overlooking when it comes to the Mac vs Barkov debate (FTR I would rather have Mac).... Duchene and Mac are fairly similar centers. Both are ~5'11" 200 lbs. Both rely on their speed. Both have great hands. Both are responsible defensively, but not great defensively. Both have a great work ethic. Etc. If you look at both of their scouting reports coming out of junior, they are shockingly similar. So... maybe the Avs don't want to build around 2 centers that are very similar?

It could be answer why Sakic want Barkov. He try to model this team like for example Pittsburgh with smaller Crosby and bigger Malkin and defensive specialist with offensive talent (previously Staal now in lesser extent Sutter). Barkov is quite similar to Malkin, highly skilled, big frame but doesn't use his body much. I'm really Ok with Barkov, I'm sure he will be great and I'll be happy to watch as kid grows in AVS uniform, but please trade down, don't take him with No 1!

 

[henchman21]

It could be answer why Sakic want Barkov. He try to model this team like for example Pittsburgh with smaller Crosby and bigger Malkin and defensive specialist with offensive talent (previously Staal now in lesser extent Sutter). Barkov is quite similar to Malkin, highly skilled, big frame but doesn't use his body much. I'm really Ok with Barkov, I'm sure he will be great and I'll be happy to watch as kid grows in AVS uniform, but please trade down, don't take him with No 1!

Bergeron 6'2" 194 lbs
Toews 6'2" 208 lbs
Kopitar 6'3" 225 lbs
Jordan Staal 6'4" 220 lbs Malkin 6'3" 195 lbs
Getzlaf 6'4" 225 lbs
Eric Staal 6'4" 205 lbs

The only team to win a cup without a big 1/2 center since the lockout was Detroit in 2008. Most of that group above are very capable of playing great defense as well.

 

[Avs For Life]

My problem with Barkov lies with the fact that I probably havent seen enough of him. The highlight vids I have seen seem to show that he rarely creates a play himself which is something that Mack is very good at. Again this could just be due to the highlight vids not showing enough of his game. He seems to be good at finishing but the play seems to be started and created by other players.

I really hope I just am not seeing the right videos and such. If this post could not be farther from the truth, please link me a vid so I can fall in love with yet another player.

 

[Avs For Life]

Bergeron 6'2" 194 lbs
Toews 6'2" 208 lbs
Kopitar 6'3" 225 lbs
Jordan Staal 6'4" 220 lbs Malkin 6'3" 195 lbs
Getzlaf 6'4" 225 lbs
Eric Staal 6'4" 205 lbs

The only team to win a cup without a big 1/2 center since the lockout was Detroit in 2008. Most of that group above is very capable of playing great defense as well.

Staz and ROR are both 6'. Is 2 inches really that big of a difference or is this something that is getting blown a bit out of proportion? 6'4" might be a difference maker though.

 

[R S]

Posted this in a PM to RockLobster, but figured I would share it too.

Every scout and every person sees things differently. I'm a huge Jones supporter but I can admit he has holes in his game. He's not great defensively and I can admit his defensive hockey sense became a bit worrisome for me later in the season and at the Memorial Cup. Was it fatigue? I would think that played some role.

And this also doesn't include the interview process. I wasn't in the room with the Avs to hear his answers and hear what he had to say about certain things. Maybe his interviews weren't great. We'll likely never know.

Roy also has a history with the two QMJHL forwards. He likely has a ton of pull in regards to the draft and probably is urging the scouting staff and Sakic/Sherman to take one of the two guys he's seen extensively. I think MacKinnon averaged like 2 points per game while playing against Roy's Remparts in his QMJHL career. That's pretty dominant.

The other whole part of this is the fact that defenceman at the top of the draft are usually tougher to predict. With a big bunch of new staff coming on board, it's likely fair that they would rather take a more "sure thing" by grabbing a forward. It can really set a franchise back if they take the wrong guy in this spot and that wouldn't be an ideal start with the Avalanche for guys like Roy and Sakic.

So, you shouldn't be so shocked or upset. At the end of the day, everyone sees things differently and you just have to trust our staff. It's almost calmed me a bit to hear this, because if we did take Jones 1st overall, our fans would constantly be bombarded by comments about 1st overall defensive flops and would have to constantly defend Jones as he grew his game at the NHL level. There will be bumps along the way for him and it would have been annoying to have to try and defend him all the time and convince people to be patient. It's likely also better for him as a player to develop in a market like Florida, TB or Nashville, where he won't have as much hype and expectation.

 

[henchman21]

Staz and ROR are both 6'. Is 2 inches really that big of a difference or is this something that is getting blown a bit out of proportion? 6'4" might be a difference maker though.

2" is the difference between 5'8" and 5'10"... there are tons more 5'10" NHLers than there are 5'8". There are few 5'10" defensemen, but there are a ton of 6'0" defensemen. I sound like such a size queen.

Truth is there is a difference, but it may not be huge difference. I was just stating a trend that has happened, and that I think has something to do with what is going on here. Having your 2 top 6 centers being the same type of player that are both on the smaller side of average makes you easier to shut down in the playoffs where clutch-and-grab hockey tends to make a return.

In many ways I am just trying to find the logic in passing on MacKinnon... I think this has something to do with it.

 

[R S]

My problem with Barkov lies with the fact that I probably havent seen enough of him. The highlight vids I have seen seem to show that he rarely creates a play himself which is something that Mack is very good at. Again this could just be due to the highlight vids not showing enough of his game. He seems to be good at finishing but the play seems to be started and created by other players.

I really hope I just am not seeing the right videos and such. If this post could not be farther from the truth, please link me a vid so I can fall in love with yet another player.

I remember watching him as a 16 year old. Not sure if it was at the World Juniors 2 years ago or the U-18's later that year.

Either way, there is one play that always stood out to me from his play.

He was forechecking near the other team's blueline. The defenseman tried to throw a cross-ice pass to his partner. Barkov read the play, knocked the puck down with his stick (it was around knee-high), he gathered the puck and went in and scored.

It was an impressive play that showed off his hockey sense, hands, hand eye co-ordination and goal scoring ability.

He's a creative and smart kid. It's impossible to really get a good feeling for him on highlight videos, but at the end of the day I think he would be a good complimentary player for us. His puck possession abilities and smarts are in the same form as a guy like Parenteau and adding another guy of that caliber (and better) would be nice.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

One thing I cant help but get excited about.


Can you imagine what Stastny will do with a guy like Mackinnon on his wing?


Those 2 together all year and I wouldn't be the least be surprised to see Mackinnon very close to 30 goals, while Stastny gets very close to the 70 point mark.

 

[CalderKing21]

Staz and ROR are both 6'. Is 2 inches really that big of a difference or is this something that is getting blown a bit out of proportion? 6'4" might be a difference maker though.

yes it is. it's a big damn difference especially when you're supremely skilled.

 

[Avs For Life]

I remember watching him as a 16 year old. Not sure if it was at the World Juniors 2 years ago or the U-18's later that year.

Either way, there is one play that always stood out to me from his play.

He was forechecking near the other team's blueline. The defenseman tried to throw a cross-ice pass to his partner. Barkov read the play, knocked the puck down with his stick (it was around knee-high), he gathered the puck and went in and scored.

It was an impressive play that showed off his hockey sense, hands, hand eye co-ordination and goal scoring ability.

He's a creative and smart kid. It's impossible to really get a good feeling for him on highlight videos, but at the end of the day I think he would be a good complimentary player for us. His puck possession abilities and smarts are in the same form as a guy like Parenteau and adding another guy of that caliber (and better) would be nice.

RS, I always love reading what you post, but this one has me torn. On the one hand that play sounds amazing and would have loved to see it and I agree that the highlight vids probably dont show how good he is all around.

On the other hand, when you mention him as a complimentary guy...is that really what we want to take with this high of a pick? Landy and Duchene are center pieces of our franchise and I feel this is where we get a 3rd center piece to really solidify our young talent. We need a natural goal scorer, can Barkov be that? He does seem to finish plays well.

I guess here is my next question for you, Mack or Barkov. From both a pure talent and as a fit on the Avs...which do you take?