2013 9th Overall Pick Discussion: Horvat vs Nichushkin [MOD NOTE POST #1]

[jimslob]

^ Max Domi

Of course I don't know why I said Drouin. I had already forgot about Domi's dominant WJC.

 

[Verviticus]

nichushkin is considerably bigger than virtanen

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

nichushkin is considerably bigger than virtanen

Size means nothing if you do not use it, ask Taylor Pyatt.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Or Zack Kassian

 

[The Iron Goalie]

Size means nothing if you do not use it, ask Taylor Pyatt.

Indeed Jake playeplays a true power game, where as Valeri uses his size too drive the net, but isn't that pwoer forward who is physically dominating the opposition.

Nichushkin- skilled forward with size
Jake- power forward with skill.

 

[Ryp37]

This thread was awful to read through the past two years, glad everytime Nuke gets a secondary assist posters this isn't being bumped

 

[Vankiller Whale]

This thread was awful to read through the past two years, glad everytime Nuke gets a secondary assist posters this isn't being bumped

Meh, that's only because he hasn't been playing.

 

[opendoor]

Interesting comparison if you consider their time in similar minutes. Horvat has spent most of the year on the 4th line with Dorsett. In those minutes here's his production and the offense the team generates with those two on the ice:

Pts/60: 1.63
GF/60: 2.45

Pretty respectable pace, though granted it's a smaller sample. Still, when you compare that to what Nichushkin did last year in the 500 minutes he didn't play with Benn, the contrast is stark:

Pts/60: 0.64
GF/60: 0.765

Nichushkin has yet to demonstrate that he can do anything at the NHL level without being hitched to two superstars in Benn and Seguin. Doesn't mean he won't be a great player, but he hasn't shown it yet.

And just to illustrate how awful those numbers are, here are Tom Sestito's numbers from last year:

Pts/60: 0.98
GF/60: 1.35

 

[Nucker101]

Interesting comparison if you consider their time in similar minutes. Horvat has spent most of the year on the 4th line with Dorsett. In those minutes here's his production and the offense the team generates with those two on the ice:

Pts/60: 1.63
GF/60: 2.45

Pretty respectable pace, though granted it's a smaller sample. Still, when you compare that to what Nichushkin did last year in the 500 minutes he didn't play with Benn, the contrast is stark:

Pts/60: 0.64
GF/60: 0.765

Nichushkin has yet to demonstrate that he can do anything at the NHL level without being hitched to two superstars in Benn and Seguin. Doesn't mean he won't be a great player, but he hasn't shown it yet.

And just to illustrate how awful those numbers are, here are Tom Sestito's numbers from last year:

Pts/60: 0.98
GF/60: 1.35

Great post, as you said it's still early and that's a small sample size but those are some telling numbers. Thanks.

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

^i can't wait until there are similar numbers showing Virtanen was a better pick than Ehlers and Nylander

 

[Diamonddog01]

Interesting comparison if you consider their time in similar minutes. Horvat has spent most of the year on the 4th line with Dorsett. In those minutes here's his production and the offense the team generates with those two on the ice:

Pts/60: 1.63
GF/60: 2.45

Pretty respectable pace, though granted it's a smaller sample. Still, when you compare that to what Nichushkin did last year in the 500 minutes he didn't play with Benn, the contrast is stark:

Pts/60: 0.64
GF/60: 0.765

Nichushkin has yet to demonstrate that he can do anything at the NHL level without being hitched to two superstars in Benn and Seguin. Doesn't mean he won't be a great player, but he hasn't shown it yet.

And just to illustrate how awful those numbers are, here are Tom Sestito's numbers from last year:

Pts/60: 0.98
GF/60: 1.35

Interesting. Their CF% is

Nich - 50.7%
Horvat - 42.2%

Dallas was 14th last year as a team, Vancouver currently sits 20th.

Very different players but I can see a case made for either.

 

[Addison Rae]

Interesting. Their CF% is

Nich - 50.7%
Horvat - 42.2%

Dallas was 14th last year as a team, Vancouver currently sits 20th.

Very different players but I can see a case made for either.

You have to realize there's a vast difference in their quality of teammates.

 

[Bleach Clean]

You have to realize there's a vast difference in their quality of teammates.

When away from Seguin and Benn, Nich's CF% was still about 6% higher. Possession wise, Horvat doesn't look ready. Nich was already playing in the KHL against men. Far more prepared early on.

That said, it looks like Horvat now has acclimatized to his new environment. Getting used to the pro game. I expect his possession numbers to be better from here on out. That 4th line is looking strong game to game. Only a matter of time.

 

[Verviticus]

Interesting comparison if you consider their time in similar minutes. Horvat has spent most of the year on the 4th line with Dorsett. In those minutes here's his production and the offense the team generates with those two on the ice:

Pts/60: 1.63
GF/60: 2.45

Pretty respectable pace, though granted it's a smaller sample. Still, when you compare that to what Nichushkin did last year in the 500 minutes he didn't play with Benn, the contrast is stark:

well these are like what, top six numbers?

 

[The Poacher]

When away from Seguin and Benn, Nich's CF% was still about 6% higher. Possession wise, Horvat doesn't look ready. Nich was already playing in the KHL against men. Far more prepared early on.

That said, it looks like Horvat now has acclimatized to his new environment. Getting used to the pro game. I expect his possession numbers to be better from here on out. That 4th line is looking strong game to game. Only a matter of time.

Question, are his possession number based on his whole line. So if Dorset has the puck and loses it and the line doesn't regain possession again that shift that's a hit against Horvat?

I ask because from watching him play when he has the puck on his stick he protects it very well, rarely being striped and makes smart passes to open team mates.

 

[Addison Rae]

When away from Seguin and Benn, Nich's CF% was still about 6% higher. Possession wise, Horvat doesn't look ready. Nich was already playing in the KHL against men. Far more prepared early on.

That said, it looks like Horvat now has acclimatized to his new environment. Getting used to the pro game. I expect his possession numbers to be better from here on out. That 4th line is looking strong game to game. Only a matter of time.

Yeah, but still Horvat has been glued to the 4th line with mostly Hansen and Dorsett even when Nichushkin played on Dallas' 2nd and 3rd line, he was playing with a better level of linemates. When Nichushkin played with Dallas' 4th line centre Vernon Fiddler in nearly 100 minutes of ice time he had a 41.6% CF%

 

[Bleach Clean]

Question, are his possession number based on his whole line. So if Dorset has the puck and loses it and the line doesn't regain possession again that shift that's a hit against Horvat?

I ask because from watching him play when he has the puck on his stick he protects it very well, rarely being striped and makes smart passes to open team mates.

If looking strictly at overall CF%, then yes, the influence of his linemates matters. It's how Burrows can prop up a guy like Bonino, for example. But CF% can be tracked with and without certain linemates. Referred to as WOWY numbers.

Per your example, if Horvat's puck protection + good passing doesn't result in shots on net, or rather, a better shot differential overall, Horvat's CF% remains where it is. That's why people want to see him played higher up in the line-up. This would likely mean a better differential (as better players are better able to direct shots on the opposition's net, while limiting shots against).

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Nuke is impressive to watch..

 

[Virtanen2Horvat]

^i can't wait until there are similar numbers showing Virtanen was a better pick than Ehlers and Nylander

Best part will be when he takes a run at them. He would destroy them. Ehlers you have to watch though, you miss him he will take off. Anyways that is what makes Virtanen awesome, his big hits just bring so much energy and I bet could help get a crowd back in the game.

 

[F A N]

52% on the faceoffs as a rookie. That is almost unheard of. In comparison, Malhotra's faceoff percentage was like 44%. Kesler's was 46.8% in his first full season as a Canuck. Horvat is going to be a very valuable player moving forward. I am pretty happy with this pick.

 

[fancouver]

52% on the faceoffs as a rookie. That is almost unheard of. In comparison, Malhotra's faceoff percentage was like 44%. Kesler's was 46.8% in his first full season as a Canuck. Horvat is going to be a very valuable player moving forward. I am pretty happy with this pick.

In Horvat's prime, his faceoff percentage is going to be sitting at 60-65% consistently. The guy is solid on the dot and a defensive tank.

 

[LeftCoast]

In Horvat's prime, his faceoff percentage is going to be sitting at 60-65% consistently. The guy is solid on the dot and a defensive tank.

I hate to be the wet blanket, but Malhotra is currently the best face-off guy in the league and he's just over 61%. Everyone else is under 60%.

Once you are around the league for a while, other centres learn your tendencies or just tie up your stick and let the wingers fight for it. I don't think anyone has maintained a 65% F/O percentage.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

My biggest argument against drafting nishkinihkinuskhn was the bolting to the KHL factor. Now that the KHL seems to be in financial hell that seem less of a threat.

Gillis couldn't have predicted that though.

 

[Oliewud]

My biggest argument against drafting nishkinihkinuskhn was the bolting to the KHL factor. Now that the KHL seems to be in financial hell that seem less of a threat.

Gillis couldn't have predicted that though.

i would still take horvat.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

i would still take horvat.

Yeah, I think I would too. Take out the KHL threat though (not that it still can't happen) and it's a little bit harder of a decision for me.

We haven't had a sexy player like that for a while.