2013 & 2014 draft classes

[Henkka]

Just interesting to look where our recent acquired guys did/could fit in earlier drafts.

After Holland has acquired some players, our draft classes look like this:

2013
-----
1st, 20.overall, W Anthony Mantha
2nd, 34.overall, F Jacob De La Rose (MTL)
2nd, 48.overall, F Zach Nastasiuk
2nd, 53.overall, RD Madison Bowey (WSH)
2nd, 58.overall, W Tyler Bertuzzi (extra SJS pick)
3rd, 79.overall, F Mattias Janmark
4th, 109.overall, W David Pope
5th, 139.overall, LD Mitch Wheaton
6th, 169.overall, RD Marc McNulty
7th, 199.overall, W Hampus Melen

So Holland traded Janmark for Cole in the past, but has also got 3 extra guys from that draft with trades. Bertuzzi from Mantha trade-down, De La Rose from waivers and Bowey for "5th" in Jensen-trade.

2014
-----
1st, 15.overall, C Dylan Larkin
2nd, undrafted, LW Taro Hirose (free agent)
3rd, 63.overall, C Dominic Turgeon
3rd, 81.overall, LW Dylan Sadowy (SJS pick)
4th, 106.overall, C Christoffer Ehn
5th, 136.overall, G Chase Perry
6th, 166.overall, C Julius Vähätalo
6th, undrafted, LW Ryan Kuffner (free agent)
7th, 196.overall, C Axel Holmström
7th, 201.overall, C Alexander Kadeykin


Probable non-factor Dylan Sadowy was traded a while ago for a 2017 3rd round pick. For that lost 2017 3rd Holland acquired later 4 x third rounders for that 2017 draft.

2014 2nd was lost in Legwand trade. This college-signed Hirose could become that level of player. Kuffner's potential is a lot lower.

Click to read more...

 

[Marky9er]

Remember when they got Sadowy and people were saying that he'd be a first round pick if he were to re-enter the draft? I guess that means he's a bust.

 

[izlez]

I'm not following the logic of Hirose being a 2nd round pick.

So now I've already seen him being compared to a Nyquist replacement and a 2nd round pick...sure those things COULD happen, but it's probably equally likely that he finished his career with 0 NHL points.

 

[Henkka]

Remember when they got Sadowy and people were saying that he'd be a first round pick if he were to re-enter the draft? I guess that means he's a bust.

I don't remeber that. He sounded like a hard-working cheking-line project, like Tyler Bertuzzi.

But he seems not to develop well and probably will career minor-leaguer. Like I said, we lost a 3rd for him and Holland has already acquired 4 extra 3rds for the same drafts.

My whole point is to inform, how minor things it was to lose single 2nd and 3rd rounders per year for those Legwands and Cole's on the playff run. Because it has been this easy to get those level of guys/picks back (from 2013 & 2014 drafts), when you really start the rebuild.

It's just the decision when you start the rebuild. Buyer always wins on those trades and you can very easily fix the depth holes in kid core later.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Just interesting to look where our recent acquired guys did/could fit in earlier drafts.

After Holland has acquired some players, our draft classes look like this:

2013
-----
1st, 20.overall, W Anthony Mantha
2nd, 34.overall, F Jacob De La Rose (MTL)
2nd, 48.overall, F Zach Nastasiuk
2nd, 53.overall, RD Madison Bowey (WSH)
2nd, 58.overall, W Tyler Bertuzzi (extra SJS pick)
3rd, 79.overall, F Mattias Janmark
4th, 109.overall, W David Pope
5th, 139.overall, LD Mitch Wheaton
6th, 169.overall, RD Marc McNulty
7th, 199.overall, W Hampus Melen

So Holland traded Janmark for Cole in the past, but has also got 3 extra guys from that draft with trades. Bertuzzi from Mantha trade-down, De La Rose from waivers and Bowey for "5th" in Jensen-trade.

2014
-----
1st, 15.overall, C Dylan Larkin
2nd, undrafted, LW Taro Hirose (free agent)
3rd, 63.overall, C Dominic Turgeon
3rd, 81.overall, LW Dylan Sadowy (SJS pick)
4th, 106.overall, C Christoffer Ehn
5th, 136.overall, G Chase Perry
6th, 166.overall, C Julius Vähätalo
6th, undrafted, LW Ryan Kuffner (free agent)
7th, 196.overall, C Axel Holmström
7th, 201.overall, C Alexander Kadeykin


Probable non-factor Dylan Sadowy was traded a while ago for a 2017 3rd round pick. For that lost 2017 3rd Holland acquired later 4 x third rounders for that 2017 draft.

2014 2nd was lost in Legwand trade. This college-signed Hirose could become that level of player. Kuffner's potential is a lot lower.

Why is Taro listed as a 2nd pick and undrafted and Kuffner 6th and undrafted?

 

[marcmadsen]

Why is Taro listed as a 2nd pick and undrafted and Kuffner 6th and undrafted?

He's just gauging the potential of each prospect with what he believes the equivalent draft round would be. He's saying that Hirose, in his opinion, is the equivalent of what would or could have been a 2nd round prospect from that draft class.

 

[Shaman464]

Just interesting to look where our recent acquired guys did/could fit in earlier drafts.

After Holland has acquired some players, our draft classes look like this:

2013
-----
1st, 20.overall, W Anthony Mantha
2nd, 34.overall, F Jacob De La Rose (MTL)
2nd, 48.overall, F Zach Nastasiuk
2nd, 53.overall, RD Madison Bowey (WSH)
2nd, 58.overall, W Tyler Bertuzzi (extra SJS pick)
3rd, 79.overall, F Mattias Janmark
4th, 109.overall, W David Pope
5th, 139.overall, LD Mitch Wheaton
6th, 169.overall, RD Marc McNulty
7th, 199.overall, W Hampus Melen

So Holland traded Janmark for Cole in the past, but has also got 3 extra guys from that draft with trades. Bertuzzi from Mantha trade-down, De La Rose from waivers and Bowey for "5th" in Jensen-trade.

2014
-----
1st, 15.overall, C Dylan Larkin
2nd, undrafted, LW Taro Hirose (free agent)
3rd, 63.overall, C Dominic Turgeon
3rd, 81.overall, LW Dylan Sadowy (SJS pick)
4th, 106.overall, C Christoffer Ehn
5th, 136.overall, G Chase Perry
6th, 166.overall, C Julius Vähätalo
6th, undrafted, LW Ryan Kuffner (free agent)
7th, 196.overall, C Axel Holmström
7th, 201.overall, C Alexander Kadeykin


Probable non-factor Dylan Sadowy was traded a while ago for a 2017 3rd round pick. For that lost 2017 3rd Holland acquired later 4 x third rounders for that 2017 draft.

2014 2nd was lost in Legwand trade. This college-signed Hirose could become that level of player. Kuffner's potential is a lot lower.

Hirose was draft eligible, he was not selected in the 2nd. Nor was Kuffner. Ranking them above players that were draft is disingenuous. Nothing Hirose has done makes him anything more than an older player playing well as a senior in the NCAA. There are many low level draft picks that have done that.

 

[SCD]

My whole point is to inform, how minor things it was to lose single 2nd and 3rd rounders per year for those Legwands and Cole's on the playff run. Because it has been this easy to get those level of guys/picks back (from 2013 & 2014 drafts), when you really start the rebuild.

But don't confuse the difference between the 22 yr old 2nd or 3rd round player who has failed to develop, and a future 2nd or 3rd round pick. One always hopes your draft team will unearth the next Kucherov or great late pick. Much greater value in an unknown 18 yr old compared to a 22 yr old with known limitations.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Remember when they got Sadowy and people were saying that he'd be a first round pick if he were to re-enter the draft? I guess that means he's a bust.

The advanced stats on him were incredible and helped convince me over... Guess analytics have some downsides as well would be one of my comments on him.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Hirose was draft eligible, he was not selected in the 2nd. Nor was Kuffner. Ranking them above players that were draft is disingenuous. Nothing Hirose has done makes him anything more than an older player playing well as a senior in the NCAA. There are many low level draft picks that have done that.

He lead the country in scoring, so yeah his value isn't a bottom basement look at this point either. Nothing Hirose has done assures him that he will translate up, but he produced points better than literally anyone playing in his level of hockey this year, sorry but that isn't nothing.

We will see what happens, it is worth pointing out that Dekeyser is one of the more successful college free agents and we complain about him a lot as it is. I don't expect huge things out of these guys, but leading the country in scoring is leading the country in scoring. I will be curious to see him at the pro level, I am not banking on him but I don't think he has no value and as a free asset in terms of cost to acquire him that is a nice addition. We need lots of talent hopefully he works his way into the picture. It also pains me as a MSU fan that all I have is Abdelkader and Miller before him, that is no good. Come on Hirose, be something the Wolverines gave us our future captain, Spartans are lagging.

 

[Shaman464]

He lead the country in scoring, so yeah his value isn't a bottom basement look at this point either. Nothing Hirose has done assures him that he will translate up, but he produced points better than literally anyone playing in his level of hockey this year, sorry but that isn't nothing.

We will see what happens, it is worth pointing out that Dekeyser is one of the more successful college free agents and we complain about him a lot as it is. I don't expect huge things out of these guys, but leading the country in scoring is leading the country in scoring. I will be curious to see him at the pro level, I am not banking on him but I don't think he has no value and as a free asset in terms of cost to acquire him that is a nice addition. We need lots of talent hopefully he works his way into the picture. It also pains me as a MSU fan that all I have is Abdelkader and Miller before him, that is no good. Come on Hirose, be something the Wolverines gave us our future captain, Spartans are lagging.

Defense development vs forward development vastly different. A defender being a late bloomer is much more likely than a forward being one. There are tons of players who lead leagues in scoring that aren't the NHL, but don't ever get drafted or make the NHL. And he didn't run away with it, or put up points that were considered elite. In fact, going back 30 years, he lead the league with the lowest point total. The next lowest in the last 30 years was 53 points.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Defense development vs forward development vastly different. A defender being a late bloomer is much more likely than a forward being one. There are tons of players who lead leagues in scoring that aren't the NHL, but don't ever get drafted or make the NHL. And he didn't run away with it, or put up points that were considered elite. In fact, going back 30 years, he lead the league with the lowest point total. The next lowest in the last 30 years was 53 points.

Are you going to honestly say a guy with that accomplishment isn't getting drafted in a re-draft? Maybe not a second, but I don't see the big downside here. If he stinks we are where we were yesterday. Not a big investment here, I think we would be pretty lucky if he turned into a third liner.

I think college hockey is also a lot better on the balance than it was even a decade ago. For instance Hockey East grades out several rungs above CHL scoring translation and just under sm-liiga. The B1G is in front of CHL leagues. To put it another way when you put in Tirose's conversion numbers he is expected to produce at a higher level in pro than several prospects we are excited about. Now I am cautious and don't think he is going to be something big, but I also don't dislike the signing. It makes sense with where we are in the rebuild.

 

[Shaman464]

Are you going to honestly say a guy with that accomplishment isn't getting drafted in a re-draft? Maybe not a second, but I don't see the big downside here. If he stinks we are where we were yesterday. Not a big investment here, I think we would be pretty lucky if he turned into a third liner.

I have no problem, and actually like this pick up. Free asset. What I think is wrong is to arbitrarily put him in the 2nd round.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I have no problem, and actually like this pick up. Free asset. What I think is wrong is to arbitrarily put him in the 2nd round.

I get that, a second is probably high, but I doubt it is really lower than third round value, I am not certain it is way off was a part of my defense.

 

[Shaman464]

I get that, a second is probably high, but I doubt it is really lower than third round value, I am not certain it is way off was a part of my defense.

Ranking players that haven’t made the NHL 5 years after they were draft eligible is pretty useless in my mind.

 

[DetroitRed]

I don't think you can use Taro leading the NCAA in points this season to estimate his value for 2014. He was 8th in points in the MHPL in '14. The top two guys got drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds but not the 5 guys in between. So, I'd be more likely to estimate that he would have been a late 3rd, or 4th round pick just based on what he'd accomplished up until that point.

 

[Hockey Know it all]

Ranking players that haven’t made the NHL 5 years after they were draft eligible is pretty useless in my mind.

Hirose was only a junior this year by the way, not a senior.

To one of your previous posts,

Yes it was a lower scoring year in the NCAA but Hirose still led the NCAA in points on a HORRIBLE Michigan state team.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I don't think you can use Taro leading the NCAA in points this season to estimate his value for 2014. He was 8th in points in the MHPL in '14. The top two guys got drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds but not the 5 guys in between. So, I'd be more likely to estimate that he would have been a late 3rd, or 4th round pick just based on what he'd accomplished up until that point.

He is significantly better than he was back then, because development isn't linear from guy to guy.

Now if we are looking at where he stood at the time of the draft it was that he wasn't drafted period. Where he fits in his draft year now is nearly impossible to place, especially until we start seeing him play pro games since guys in his year absolutely have made the league in a decent sample size and have track records to study. By the fact he looks likely to play in the league at all probably puts him in the top half of the draft even if that can be argued as a circumstance of getting him to sign and not actual talent assessment in my opinion. Still to offer it means you have worked your way into a 3rd or 4th round at the lowest picture to me on a re-draft.

I still am curious to see how this works out. I don't put a lot into undrafted guys, if they pan out into something I am ecstatic, but often times even guys like Hicketts that are nice stories you see the reasons why they went undrafted in the first place often. Hopefully the steps Hirose has taken in his game allow him to excel, if it doesn't pan out we didn't lose anything but one contract slot for two seasons on this gamble and that is well worth it in my opinion.

 

[DetroitRed]

He is significantly better than he was back then, because development isn't linear from guy to guy.

Now if we are looking at where he stood at the time of the draft it was that he wasn't drafted period. Where he fits in his draft year now is nearly impossible to place, especially until we start seeing him play pro games since guys in his year absolutely have made the league in a decent sample size and have track records to study. By the fact he looks likely to play in the league at all probably puts him in the top half of the draft even if that can be argued as a circumstance of getting him to sign and not actual talent assessment in my opinion. Still to offer it means you have worked your way into a 3rd or 4th round at the lowest picture to me on a re-draft.

I still am curious to see how this works out. I don't put a lot into undrafted guys, if they pan out into something I am ecstatic, but often times even guys like Hicketts that are nice stories you see the reasons why they went undrafted in the first place often. Hopefully the steps Hirose has taken in his game allow him to excel, if it doesn't pan out we didn't lose anything but one contract slot for two seasons on this gamble and that is well worth it in my opinion.

Right. That's kind of what I'm saying. If you we are talking about a redraft, then I don't think you could still rank de La Rose or Bowey as 2nd rounders, and saying that Hirose should be considered a 2014 2nd rounder is basically speaking in those terms. It's speaking hindsight. It suggests a redraft. So, yeah, had we known, maybe he would have been a 2nd rounder, but then Bowey and de La rose would not have been.

 

[ShelbyZ]

Remember when they got Sadowy and people were saying that he'd be a first round pick if he were to re-enter the draft? I guess that means he's a bust.

I remember at the time of the trade Sadowy was being projected as a future Abdelkader...

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I remember at the time of the trade Sadowy was being projected as a future Abdelkader...

Career ahl guy? Seems about right to me. Gator hit the Michigan lottery.

 

[lilidk]

I'm not following the logic of Hirose being a 2nd round pick.

So now I've already seen him being compared to a Nyquist replacement and a 2nd round pick...sure those things COULD happen, but it's probably equally likely that he finished his career with 0 NHL points.

Nyquist first appearance with wings was in 2011 . In 18 games he recorded 7 points , he was 22 just like Hirose now . My comparing Hirose and Nyquist all about skilled forward , who are not good at defense. I'd rathe have complete players , good at both end of the ice , but he has such a magic hands and skating very good to

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

That Legwand trade still makes me nauseous

 

[Henkka]

Nyquist first appearance with wings was in 2011 . In 18 games he recorded 7 points , he was 22 just like Hirose now . My comparing Hirose and Nyquist all about skilled forward , who are not good at defense. I'd rathe have complete players , good at both end of the ice , but he has such a magic hands and skating very good to

Fun fact:

Taro Hirose, 22 years, 8 months old when scoring his first NHL point (assist, on his 1st NHL game)
Gus Nyquist, 22 years, 6 months old when scoring his first NHL point (assist, on his 4th NHL game)

Taro Hirose, 5'10 LW, 36gp, 15+35=50p on his final NCAA season.
Gus Nyquist, 5'11 LW, 36gp, 18+33=51p on his final NCAA season.

 

[ricky0034]

He lead the country in scoring, so yeah his value isn't a bottom basement look at this point either. Nothing Hirose has done assures him that he will translate up, but he produced points better than literally anyone playing in his level of hockey this year, sorry but that isn't nothing.

We will see what happens, it is worth pointing out that Dekeyser is one of the more successful college free agents and we complain about him a lot as it is. I don't expect huge things out of these guys, but leading the country in scoring is leading the country in scoring. I will be curious to see him at the pro level, I am not banking on him but I don't think he has no value and as a free asset in terms of cost to acquire him that is a nice addition. We need lots of talent hopefully he works his way into the picture. It also pains me as a MSU fan that all I have is Abdelkader and Miller before him, that is no good. Come on Hirose, be something the Wolverines gave us our future captain, Spartans are lagging.

it doesn't mean nothing but it doesn't really mean much either

excluding Eichel for obvious reasons here's the last 10 undrafted guys to lead the NCAA in scoring:


2016-17: Zach Aston-Reese(played 59 NHL games with 23 points so far,currently active)
2012-13: Rylan Schwartz(never ended up playing even a single game in the NHL,currently playing in Germany)
2011-12: Spencer Abbott(played 1 game in the NHL,currently playing in Sweden)
2010-11: Andy Miele(played a grand total of 15 games in the NHL where he put up 2 points,currently playing in Russia)
2008-09: Bryan Leitch(never ended up playing even a single game in the NHL,currently retired)
2004-2005: Marty Sertich(never ended up playing even a single game in the NHL,currently retired)
2003-2004: Junior Lessard (played a grand total of 27 games in the NHL where he put up 4 points,currently retired)
2002-2003: Peter Sejna(played a grand total of 48 games in the NHL where he put up 10 points,currently retired)
2000-2001: Jeff Panzer(never ended up playing even a single game in the NHL,currently retired)
1999-2000: Steven Reinprecht(played a grand total of 663 games in the NHL where he put up 382 points,currently retired)

it's a pretty unimpressive list to put it mildly with a combined 421 points in 813 games between the 10 of them,around 80% of which was from Reinprecht alone

half of them either literally never played a single NHL game at all or only played one game,all the rest aside from Reinprecht only played around a quarter to half a season,only aston-reese is currently still active out of the 10