tomgilbertfan
#WhyBother
DGB summarizes findings on Carrying the puck v. Dump and chase
It turns out that crossing the blue line with possession is worth more than a dump-in.
How much more? Quite a bit, according to this paper presented at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.10 After tracking more than 300 games from the 2011-12 season, the authors found that, even when accounting for the higher failure rate of carry attempts, that approach still generated roughly twice as many shots, scoring chances, and goals as dumping in the puck and trying to retrieve it.
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Of course, it's not quite that simple. There's a reason why teams started embracing the dump-and-chase strategy all those years ago, and it still holds true today: Gaining the offensive zone with possession is difficult. You have to avoid turning over the puck on your way in. If you make an extra move, you may put your teammate offside. And at the moment you do gain the zone, you quickly become vulnerable to a defender because you can't bring the puck back out. Even if you can manage all that while still protecting the puck, there's a decent chance you're going to end up taking a hit for your troubles.
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We're never going to see the day when the dump-and-chase play is going to go away, but the research suggests that smart teams will rely on it less.14
Is that actually happening, though? Are any NHL teams changing their strategy based on this kind of thinking?
Yes, as it turns out. One prominent example: the Minnesota Wild, a classic dump-and-chase team last year that made the playoffs with that style of play. But after the Wild realized they were going to need to beat elite divisional rivals like the Blackhawks and Blues to get to the next level, the Minnesota brain trust decided to shift strategies. As outlined in this recent post by Elliotte Friedman, Minnesota has decided to focus on gaining the zone with the puck.
