2012 CBA/Lockout talk Part VII..Will a deal get done..

[Kate08]

There is Z-E-R-O chance this ends in a lost season. ZERO

This is the final bickering, threats, planes, trains, and automobiles

Sure- cancel the season and miss a year or more of your career, then come back as a joke sport with a pie that has shrunk by a third....

This reminds me of the people who are steadfast in joining a gym first of the year, eating better, losing weight etc.....and starting XMas Eve they eat anything and everything for a week. That is all this is

we knew this was coming, right?

I have no idea what you're talking about....

 

[Number8]

It's two seasons actually, as what remains of this season would also be done under an artificially inflated cap number which would see many teams able to afford payrolls many more others can't. Perhaps you mean "it's just one more season?"

I must admit, I don't understand your stance here. You're asking why I don't support a wider gap between max and min payrolls and then ask why anyone would support a system that "forced [a team] to ice an inferior product when they have to load up on AHL-level players on the lowest contracts possible." Just to be clear, I believe having a wider gap between min and max. caps achieves exactly that. When you lower the minimum salary cap there are teams who will add more minimum contracts so they can stay closer to the 44 million figure rather then being forced to spend more to reach that 49 million figure. Why would anyone want that? You tell me? Yes, it may only affect 7 teams, but we are only talking about a 30 team league and those 7 teams just happen to be an areas where the sport needs the most help.

And parity is part of a fair playing ground, is it not? You set up the financial fundamentals in such a way that will allow teams like NYR and Toronto to spend 20 million more on payroll then teams like Phoenix and Columbus and you're putting those teams at a disadvantage... no? If you don't believe in a correlation between salary and skill then I can understand the reasoning but I believe the better players get paid more (not something I would have classified as going out on a limb on honestly).

I'll ask my question again. Why do you believe I, as a fan, should care more about the players pocket book then I do the quality of the on ice product? Why do you think I should support a wider gap between max and min payroll spending? Perhaps you can change my mind.

Just for reference, my preferred choices in this case are:
1. Go to 50/50 split sooner rather then later as it allows teams to be competitively payroll wise with each other sooner (read: I care more about on ice product then I do players pocket books).
2. Failing #1, concede on 65 million in year two but keep the minimum cap closer to the 65 mill figure so that teams are forced to be a little bit more competitive payroll wise (read: I care more about on ice product then I do owners pocket books).
3. Failing #2, concede on both the 65 million upper limit and the 44 million lower limit. (I care more about having a hockey season then I do on ice product over the next two seasons).

The problem when introducing parity and fairness into the equation, is it's not realistic and who's back would it rest on anyway?

Up until now there has already been a potential $16M parity gap in place in terms of possible player payrolls between teams. Depending upon the relative capabilities of the GM's, that SHOULD make a huge difference each year.

If you wanted real parity, you'd say "the salary requirement is $50M a year (I just picked a number -- the point is everyone would spend equally) and you owners/gm's must spend to that amount".

Required salary: $50M
Teams as of now: 30
Salary due players; $1.5B
HRR required for 50/50 split: $3B

From there, the owners and players would split the monies above or below (escrow) that $3B figure.

That would make for so called "parity" -- however under that model teams like Toronto and NY would make an "unfair" killing financially.

So, if you wanted to make it "fair", then the Maple Leafs owners for example would then have to say something like "you know without a league we don't have a team, without a team we don't make money, without the Phoenix's we don't have a league -- so let's all share everything, it's only fair --- tv, tickets, merchandising, etc.,etc.,"

You could argue that that would be closer to fair and a system of parity than what's in place now. However, neither of those scenarios I describe will ever happen.

So given that, why should the players be forced to make things sort of fair, or close to parity? Neither is truly in place, nor ever going to be in place.

 

[Number8]

I have no idea what you're talking about....

He's saying they all know that not going back to work on January 11 is economically bad for all, but until then all the little piggies are at the trough greedily squabbling over whatever scraps are left.

I knowing being a glutton over Christmas is not necessarily an attractive quality, and I know it needs to come to an end with the new year......... but that doesn't stop me from doing it each and every year (CBA).

 

[Kate08]

He's saying they all know that not going back to work on January 11 is economically bad for all, but until then all the little piggies are at the trough greedily squabbling over whatever scraps are left.

I knowing being a glutton over Christmas is not necessarily an attractive quality, and I know it needs to come to an end with the new year......... but that doesn't stop me from doing it each and every year (CBA).

I was kidding. The scenario he described was exactly the internal conversation I had with myself around Christmas.

 

[Spooner st]

aaronward_nhl: @JayOnrait Fair warning!When lockout ends,all 6'9 and 120 lbs of you best beware.Live SC could be in for a surprise or two. #pencilneck


DarrenDreger: Mediation but no negotiation happening this am in NYC. If agreement in principle reached, will either side have trust until papers signed?

 

[Spooner st]

Renaud Lavoie ‏@RenLavoieRDS
Mediator will be at NHLPA hotel this morning. Mediator should meet with the NHL after. NHL CBA talks not schedule yet.


Kris Letang will play with the St-Petersburgh SKA in the KHL.


DarrenDreger: Because of lack of trust both sides say all language will have to be carefully executed before "Game On" declared. Byproduct of yesterday?

 

[Number8]

I was kidding. The scenario he described was exactly the internal conversation I had with myself around Christmas.

Sorry..... I should have known!!!!!

I just re-read it and it was clear as a bell. So much for my New Year's Resolution not to be as much of a bonehead!!!

 

[Spooner st]

HayesTSN: Fehr's not doing anything until he gets that Disclaimer back. RT: @tpanotchCSN Rumblings there may not be any bargaining today.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

This "trust" issue is stupid, the players are beyond stupid sheep now, and the Fehr needs to be locked away in a prison somewhere until this agreement is reached. Bettman too.

 

[gvkmedia]

There will be a season...

I am not an insider but a long time poster here at HF and a resident of the GTA. I know people who know people (is that sketchy enough for ya?) and every once in awhile I get a tid bit of information through some connected people. Ekklund I am not (whom I believe has accidently become very connected).

Mrs Stamkos (Steve's Mom) has been told by the owner of the Lightning that Steve has been asked to fly back to Tampa to get ready for the upcoming season.

All this tells me is that the two sides are at the end. It will be an up and down ride for a week or less.

We will have hockey this season. Thank goodness.

GVK

 

[DKH]

I was kidding. The scenario he described was exactly the internal conversation I had with myself around Christmas.

you know I really like you so I'm glad you understood me

anyways, I'm not even sure what they are arguing over anymore(and really don't care); I can't believe there is an issue that is worth flushing 3.3 B and WAS growing down the hopper

A great scene would be if Time Square they could build a huge toilet outside NHL offices and instead of lowering 'the ball' they could make a big PUCK and put NHL season on it and lower it into it and then release a hidden hydrant.

I am really looking forward to next Friday- it could be awesome if they haven't agreed yet.

 

[DominicT]

This "trust" issue is stupid, the players are beyond stupid sheep now, and the Fehr needs to be locked away in a prison somewhere until this agreement is reached. Bettman too.

He just might be:

Tom Gulitti ‏@TGfireandice
If NHLPA files disclaimer of interest, NHL would have to sign waiver to allow Don Fehr to continue to represent players in negotiations

Tom Gulitti ‏@TGfireandice
I think someone reported this a couple of days ago, but told NHL won't sign waiver for either Fehr (Don or Steve) if NHLPA disclaims.

Again, Que Pat Brisson

 

[smithformeragent]

If both sides have come this far just to let the season slip away, the league deserves its place as the red headed step child of professional sports. At this point, it just feels like a cold war with both sides ready to launch the nuke and destroy the sport. They know that idiots like me and many others here will come crawling back because we're suckers and enablers.

 

[ronwm]

I was kidding. The scenario he described was exactly the internal conversation I had with myself around Christmas.

Do what my wife and I do.....we get ourselves all geared up to start working out the first of the year, be gluttons the week before, then end up skipping the working out at all when the first of the year hits....

 

[gvkmedia]

If both sides have come this far just to let the season slip away, the league deserves its place as the red headed step child of professional sports. At this point, it just feels like a cold war with both sides ready to launch the nuke and destroy the sport. They know that idiots like me and many others here will come crawling back because we're suckers and enablers.

This statement is why I believe it when I hear about Stamkos being told it's time to come back. The season is coming.

It just makes too much sense - even for these idiots.

 

[DOGSTARMAN]

The thing that is troubling is that even though it sure seems like the sides are close and you hear a lot about how close they are, it also sounds like both sides are pretty dug in with their current positions. For example, the owners won't move off $60M cap for Year 2 and the hardline players won't move off $65M. Despite that looking like a problem that can be solved, there has not been any movement and it is thus a gap that could prevent this from getting done. We assume it will be resolved - but there's just no guarantee and you have to keep reminding yourself about how much money they have burned off already fighting over these issues. And that's just one of a handful of issues that are similarly held up.

I still fall into the camp that just assumes this gets done at the last minute, but there is real risk of losing the season.

 

[Mione134]

This statement is why I believe it when I hear about Stamkos being told it's time to come back. The season is coming.

It just makes too much sense - even for these idiots.

I just...cue the X-Files theme, I want to believvveeeeee!

But I still just have my doubts with all of this.

 

[DominicT]

The thing that is troubling is that even though it sure seems like the sides are close and you hear a lot about how close they are, it also sounds like both sides are pretty dug in with their current positions. For example, the owners won't move off $60M cap for Year 2 and the hardline players won't move off $65M. Despite that looking like a problem that can be solved, there has not been any movement and it is thus a gap that could prevent this from getting done. We assume it will be resolved - but there's just no guarantee and you have to keep reminding yourself about how much money they have burned off already fighting over these issues. And that's just one of a handful of issues that are similarly held up.

I still fall into the camp that just assumes this gets done at the last minute, but there is real risk of losing the season.

Here's a stat for you Kevin

Ilya Kovalchuk has already lost $5 million on his own.

the difference is only $5 million

 

[Pie O My]

Thanks to OOG and Black eye for clarifying some points for me a few pages back regarding what issues have been resolved for good, VS what is outstanding.

Couple of other points and questions for you guys:

Point - OOG has mentioned jan 20th as the drop dead date and said this is what the league is looking at as reasonable, but B eye thinks this will go to the last minute because Fehr is trying to suck this lemon dry. Unfortunately it looks like Fehr is the alpha dog in this fight and things will come to a head when he says so, which begs the question...what does Fehr consider the last minute? I know i sound like a broken record on this feb 16th date but I have to believe that Fehr looks at that and thinks if Bettman was willing to go that far into the season before, then he'll do it again. my 2 cents.

Question - OOG, what have you heard about this mediator? How was he chosen? Did both sides have to agree to him and do both sides trust him?

(a little late on this but it is good having black eye back to posting on here more often)

 

[bp13]

He just might be:

Tom Gulitti ‏@TGfireandice
If NHLPA files disclaimer of interest, NHL would have to sign waiver to allow Don Fehr to continue to represent players in negotiations

Tom Gulitti ‏@TGfireandice
I think someone reported this a couple of days ago, but told NHL won't sign waiver for either Fehr (Don or Steve) if NHLPA disclaims.

Again, Que Pat Brisson

Dom explain this to me...

this would seem to indicate that the players aren't happy with Fehr. But doesn't he serve at their pleasure? If they don't want him representing them any longer, why is he? Why not just remove him today, disclaimer or no disclaimer?

 

[DOGSTARMAN]

Here's a stat for you Kevin

Ilya Kovalchuk has already lost $5 million on his own.

the difference is only $5 million

That's what I have never fully understood - the net $ the players walk away with from all this will be less than it could have been just by virtue of the lost games and revenue/salaries. Somewhere there exists an explanation, a rationale, that makes sense of this but I haven't come across it yet.

If you are looking for cues as to what to expect, I guess Fehr's non-filing of the disclaimer of interest Wednesday is as good as any and it should yield a little optimism. By all accounts, Fehr was empowered to unilaterally file the motion if he wished to. And he did not. There is good and bad news in that:

Good news: It is made plain once again that D Fehr's goal here, the end game, is to wring as much as possible out of the negotiating process without actually losing the whole season. And he must believe they are close to the end and within striking distance of the deal the players will accept. Otherwise he would have take the step that could have destabilized the situation. Fehr more or less tipped his hand here. Some say he doesn't care about hockey or the damage the lockout is causing. I see it differently. All parties have more or less agreed that a "48 game season" would be "acceptable" and that has become both the outcome and the deadline they are working against. Fehr is just wringing every drop he can out of the time available. The non-filing indicates that he is working within that "let's have a short season" construct and sees it coming to pass and is not really interested in blowing it up. Unless things go off the rails somehow - which may or may not have been set in motion unfortunately.

Bad news: Because things got rocky again on Thursday, and the union decided to resurrect the disclaimer tool to serve as their stick in negotiations, this once again pops up as an element or risk. The timing is just unfortunate and has been bungled IMO. They put themselves in the position where they had to put the disclaimer tool a bit too early, got burned a little by that, and now have to go back to it again. This creates a distraction and angst at a time when they should be forging ahead. And because Fehr did not file last time, that indicates that the disclaimer move would be disruptive, yet here it is again. Essentially we want that to go away and not fluxor things up at the end. There is little margin for error when it comes to inflaming the hard liners and hopefully nobody blunders when it comes to keeping those types in check.

Point is, you should probably view what's going on as just the death throes of an ugly, extremely trying and tedious process that we all hate but which has an endpoint and an outcome that most involved seem to have tacitly accepted for some time. The daily drama and flare-ups indicate some real risk and puts us through the ringer, but hopefully they keep it together enough to button this up in the next week. Fehr seems to be acting as if this is the path he believes they are on...

 

[thegodfather]

Thanks to OOG and Black eye for clarifying some points for me a few pages back regarding what issues have been resolved for good, VS what is outstanding.

Couple of other points and questions for you guys:

Point - OOG has mentioned jan 20th as the drop dead date and said this is what the league is looking at as reasonable, but B eye thinks this will go to the last minute because Fehr is trying to suck this lemon dry. Unfortunately it looks like Fehr is the alpha dog in this fight and things will come to a head when he says so, which begs the question...what does Fehr consider the last minute? I know i sound like a broken record on this feb 16th date but I have to believe that Fehr looks at that and thinks if Bettman was willing to go that far into the season before, then he'll do it again. my 2 cents.

Question - OOG, what have you heard about this mediator? How was he chosen? Did both sides have to agree to him and do both sides trust him?

(a little late on this but it is good having black eye back to posting on here more often)

The TSN insiders touched on this the other night. They were shocked when it was leaked that there was a mediator involved in these last set of negotiations.

I would assume though that both parties would have to agree and I would think it's the same group as last time. I guess if you agree to the mediator your pretty much saying you trust them.

 

[DOGSTARMAN]

Dom explain this to me...

this would seem to indicate that the players aren't happy with Fehr. But doesn't he serve at their pleasure? If they don't want him representing them any longer, why is he? Why not just remove him today, disclaimer or no disclaimer?

Dom will have better answers to these question than I will, but my take: The disclaimer of interest is a maneuver that gives the former union, actually the individual players, the right to sue the league because the lockout would no longer be "legal" - if a court chooses to see things that way, at least. The disclaimer is thus leverage over the owners because it brings the courts into this mess and raises anti-trust issues, etc., that the owners would rather not have to be bothered with. This move is not about Fehr stepping aside, rather that would be collateral damage from the disclaimer or decertification.

If I can speculate about the angle Dom is promoting, the objective would still be to get a deal done, but now under duress. The owners would be so po'd at Fehr that they would effectively refuse to bother with him. And hence why somebody like Brisson would step forward to try to get something done.

My take - chances of being wrong: as always, high.

 

[Glove Malfunction]

Dom explain this to me...

this would seem to indicate that the players aren't happy with Fehr. But doesn't he serve at their pleasure? If they don't want him representing them any longer, why is he? Why not just remove him today, disclaimer or no disclaimer?

Anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but as I understand it, the disclaimer of interest is the opening step to dissolution of the players union. And if the union is disslved, then the head of the union would no longer represent the players. It's not a matter of the player not being happy with Fehr, it's a legal question of him no longer "officially" representing them. That waiver (if signed, though it looks unlikely) would allow Fehr to represent the players collectively, even though there would no longer be a union.

Again, anyone feel free to correct anything I've gotten wrong. I'm certainly no labor law expert...

 

[Number8]

Thanks to OOG and Black eye for clarifying some points for me a few pages back regarding what issues have been resolved for good, VS what is outstanding.

Couple of other points and questions for you guys:

Point - OOG has mentioned jan 20th as the drop dead date and said this is what the league is looking at as reasonable, but B eye thinks this will go to the last minute because Fehr is trying to suck this lemon dry. Unfortunately it looks like Fehr is the alpha dog in this fight and things will come to a head when he says so, which begs the question...what does Fehr consider the last minute? I know i sound like a broken record on this feb 16th date but I have to believe that Fehr looks at that and thinks if Bettman was willing to go that far into the season before, then he'll do it again. my 2 cents.

Question - OOG, what have you heard about this mediator? How was he chosen? Did both sides have to agree to him and do both sides trust him?

(a little late on this but it is good having black eye back to posting on here more often)

As payback for this mess, I've committed to not spending a dime on the NHL directly for this season (assuming they have one). I'll watch on TV I have no doubt, but beyond that nothing.

However, if they push it to February 16th -- or something along those lines -- I'll do everything in my power not to even watch on TV. Not sure if I'll be able to hold to that, but at some point you have to stand on principle.

They clearly don't care one iota about their fans, and I'm going to try in some capacity to demonstrate in my tiny little way that that attitude comes at a cost. Enough is enough.