2012-13 Qualitative +/- Ratings

[Joe McGrath]

Heh, half our defensemen last year WERE forwards... in their own minds anyway...

In seriousness, it goes without saying that the numbers shouldn't be used for cross-positional comparisons. A forward would have to be god-awful to have an overall minus, and a defenseman would have to be Bobby Orr to have an overall plus. The idea is to illustrate their individual impact in relation to the rest of the team. Eventually I need to work in TOI and QualComp to get a more fully-developed picture.

I wonder what the defensemans numbers would look like on a team that doesn't suck balls...

I don't think it would take Bobby Orr to be a +. Hell Harrison was what, a minus 2? Gleason a minus 3 playing the minutes he did? I would think someone like Doughty or Pieterangelo would be at the very least flirt with a plus rating.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I wonder what the defensemans numbers would look like on a team that doesn't suck balls...

I don't think it would take Bobby Orr to be a +. Hell Harrison was what, a minus 2? Gleason a minus 3 playing the minutes he did? I would think someone like Doughty or Pieterangelo would be at the very least flirt with a plus rating.

You're probably right about that, a defenseman with a strong two-way game would probably put up enough pluses to be on the positive side of the ledger. I guess we'll find out someday when we actually get one...

 

[Joe McGrath]

I must say, I find it remarkable that McBain only has 7 minuses to this point.

 

[rocky7]

no idea what they plan on doing with Joni Pitkanen. i can't imagine how a smashed heel on top of his other health issues isn't going to be an on going problem for him. and, watching all the clips again didn't leave me all that impressed with his play regardless. kind of stuck there.

anyways, if Ward and Khudobin play awesome it will make such a huge difference !!!!

after watching a bunch of stuff over the summer, i kind of feel sorry for Peters. he just isn't an NHL goalie but man did he ever come up with some nice saves from time to time. he must have sure felt some highs and lows.

 

[rocky7]

Game 36 vs Tampa Bay Lightning
4/4/2013
5-0 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

none

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 0:28 Purcell (Carle)
-1 Bowman - While this one was close to being another error on Ellis, there were enough defensive gaffes here to exacerbate the soft rebound. First and foremost was this performance by Bowman -- overplaying the center lane, then getting beaten along the boards, then turning the puck over right up the middle of the ice.
-1 Dwyer - Makes much the same mistake as Bowman, overplaying the strong side to the point of being way out of position on the turnover.
-1 Harrison - If he gets a body or even a stick on the net-crashing Purcell, the rebound might not come back to bite the Canes.

2nd 15:55 Pyatt (Killorn, Brewer)
-1 Nash - Beaten cleanly on the d-zone faceoff, then fails to tie up Pyatt's stick on the tip-in.

2nd 19:17 Aulie (Stamkos, St. Louis)
Goaltender Error - Ellis - Traffic or not, an NHL goalie has to stop 50-foot floaters.

3rd 2:24 St. Louis (Pouliot, Carle)
-1 Corvo - Characteristically trying to play the game reactively instead of thinking about what he's doing.
-1 Harrison - Characteristically overthinking the situation instead of just making the obvious play.
^ This is a defensive pairing made in hell.

3rd 7:30 Pouliot (Stamkos, St. Louis)
-1 Gleason - Another embarrassing effort in a night full of them. Gets torched on a simple 2-on-2 crossover, then takes out his own goalie and flops around trying to recover.
-1 Eric Staal - Again, embarrassing. He gets absolutely outmuscled in the corner by St. Louis of all people.
-1 Skinner - And that's why you don't turn your back on the puck in the defensive zone. Jeebus.

Totals
Error - Ellis
-1 Bowman
-1 Corvo
-1 Dwyer
-1 Gleason
-1 Nash
-1 Skinner
-1 Eric Staal
-2 Harrison

lol . Semin strips the puck and goes with Staal for what looked like an easy goal for them and then instead of having his stick on the ice or slowing, he kicks it in. it was a nice flip pass to Staal. he was being too closely back checked to stop i guess and looked like he expected Staal to shoot and the pass was at his feet. maybe he should have shot himself. idk looked like a brain fart too. maybe it was just one of those that look worse than it was or something but it was hilarious. he was laughing but i wish i could have seen Staal's face .

 

[tarheelhockey]

lol . Semin strips the puck and goes with Staal for what looked like an easy goal for them and then instead of having his stick on the ice or slowing, he kicks it in. it was a nice flip pass to Staal. he was being too closely back checked to stop i guess and looked like he expected Staal to shoot and the pass was at his feet. maybe he should have shot himself. idk looked like a brain fart too. maybe it was just one of those that look worse than it was or something but it was hilarious. he was laughing but i wish i could have seen Staal's face .

I remember being kind of stunned when it happened in real time. It's like, do you bother celebrating this or not? Even from the other side of the arena it was such an obvious kick-in that there was no question they would wave it off.

He didn't even try to put his stick on the ice or anything, just booted it in there... can't say I've seen one quite like that before.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 44 vs Philadelphia Flyers
4/20/2013
5-3 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 13:18 Skinner (unassisted)
+1 Skinner - Nice to see Skinner playing more aggressive defense and profiting off the turnover. A glimmer of hope that he's starting to "get" two-way hockey.
+1 Jordan Staal - Again, good aggressive forechecking.
+1 Gleason - Well-timed pinch to cause the turnover.

2nd 7:19 Faulk (Wallace, Westgarth)
+1 Wallace - What I love about this goal is that if Wallace isn't quite so eager to put a body on that Flyer defender, the clearing pass probably gets out of the zone. If he shies away from that hit on the boards, he doesn't get the puck back to Faulk. Between him and Westgarth and Blanchard, this whole sequence was born out of pure competitive willpower.
+1 Westgarth - This is probably the best hockey play Westgarth made all season.
+1 Blanchard - Easy save for the goalie if Blanchard's butt isn't in his face.
+1 Faulk - Another good example of taking power off a shot to make it more dangerous.

3rd 2:43 Eric Staal (Tlusty, Semin)
+1 Faulk - Pretty good display of hand-eye-foot coordination to get that puck up the ice.
+1 Semin - Playmaking sense = off the charts.
+1 Tlusty - He has the easiest job in the league. Skate in a straight line at the net, receive beautiful passes, take open shots, collect points.
+1 Eric Staal - Simple enough.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 7:00 Voracek (Giroux)
-1 Jordan Staal - That's just an awful, awful turnover. The defensemen and especially Peters never stood a chance.

2nd 1:54 Simmonds (Read)
-1 Bergeron - And that's why this guy was available for trade. A CHL defenseman would be expected to kill that pass.

2nd 8:33 Simmonds (Couturier, Read)
-1 Tlusty - This one is a bit of a judgment call, since the defense was kind of scrambly and Tlusty had switched assignments with Staal. It appears to me that Tlusty, playing the center assignment, simply got absorbed by the corner battle and drifted too low to provide puck support. Which is the decision you'd expect from a board-working winger, but there's a reason they call it a "center". Staal and Semin were glued to the points, so there was nobody left covering the center lane except Harrison, who as a defenseman is not supposed to step out to the high slot.
-1 Corvo - Coverage factors aside, Corvo simply got overpowered in the corner.

3rd 0:48 Simmonds (Schenn)
Goalie Error - Peters - This is about the time I started feeling kind of bad for Peters.

3rd 7:03 Read (Simmonds)
-1 McBain - I guess he was in a bit of a tough spot, but still. If he simply stands up and skates hard, he at least gets a stick on Read during that breakaway.

Totals
+2 Faulk
+1 Blanchard
+1 Gleason
+1 Semin
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
+1 Wallace
+1 Westgarth
-1 Bergeron
-1 Corvo
-1 McBain

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 45 @ Tampa Bay Lightning
4/21/2013
3-2 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 0:16 Semin (Eric Staal)
+1 Eric Staal - Absolutely brilliant forechecking and transition.
+1 Semin - That's a tougher shot than it appears at first glance. Semin managed to get good elevation on a short-range slapshot with the puck about 3 feet in front of him.

1st 10:45 Tlusty (Semin, Corvo)
Fluke goal off a defender, no points assigned here.

1st 18:46 Tlusty (Eric Staal, Semin)
+1 Tlusty - Gotta love a goal like this... just playing hard with a will to put the puck in the net.
+1 Semin - Again, showing off that completely insane vision and hockey sense.
+1 Eric Staal - Not just for the assist, either. Before the goal, he gets a stick on a Lightning player just as the latter was about to clear the zone. A little defensive effort turned failure into success.
+1 Harrison - Did a nice job of holding the line to support Staal and then getting the puck back down low.

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 2:16 St. Louis (Lecavalier)
-1 Corvo - That should just never ever happen, ever.
-1 Dwyer - Got absolutely torched by Lecavalier on the faceoff.
-1 Nash - He played a big role in this by first getting kicked out of the circle and then misplaying the faceoff result.

Totals
+1 Harrison
+1 Semin
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Corvo
-1 Dwyer
-1 Nash

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 46 vs New York Islanders
4/23/2013
4-3 SO Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 3:57 Semin (Eric Staal, McBain)
+1 Semin - He benefited from some soft goaltending, but I guess that's what happens when you take unexpected shots.
+1 Eric Staal - The chemistry he has with Semin really is a thing of beauty.

1st 16:20 Jordan Staal (Harrison, Tlusty)
+1 Jordan Staal - Epic deflection, as that shot wasn't anywhere close to the net.
+1 Semin - Plays like this make me wonder why Semin has a reputation for not doing board work. This play doesn't exist if he isn't strong on the boards, preventing a clear.
+1 Tlusty - Despite a couple of missed chances on the sequence, he's doing his usual thing of running around and causing havoc. In particular, that hairpin turn on the far boards really created the time and space that led to the goal.
+1 Harrison - Much like Tlusty, so often it seems he generates offense just by following simple hockey maxims. When in doubt, throw the puck at the net and good things happen.

2nd 17:45 Dwyer (Jordan Staal, Ruutu)
+1 Ruutu - You gotta love Ruutu when he plays like this. His approach to a 1-on-3 is to knock one guy out of the play, dump the puck, chase his own dump-in and steal it back. Those moments are when he's actually worth his salary.
+1 Dwyer - Scores the goal and gives Nabokov a nice little push for good measure.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 6:04 Boyes (Streit, Moulson)
-1 Faulk - Just a rough shift overall, from the turnover to being beaten along the boards to the questionable call in front of the net.
-1 Ruutu - This is why you're supposed to turn and face out from the net when you're defending the slot.

2nd 7:34 Bailey (Okposo, Neilsen)
-1 Eric Staal - Interesting study in the butterfly effect of getting kicked out of a neutral-zone faceoff. Staal was actually handling Okposo pretty well at first, but just got burned on that spin move.
-1 Tlusty - Covering Staal's lane, he got burned even worse.
-1 Sanguinetti - Absorbed by the puck, not covering his man.

3rd 18:59 Tavares (Moulson, Okposo)
-1 Semin - Another minus due to a weak pass getting intercepted. Continues to fit the pattern that began with his injury.
-1 Eric Staal - That's just a pitiful defensive effort, and coming right off the bench no less. Plays like this go a long way to reinforce the complaints about his work ethic.

Totals
+1 Dwyer
+1 Harrison
+1 Semin
+1 Jordan Staal
-1 Faulk
-1 Sanguinetti
-1 Eric Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 47 vs New York Rangers
4/25/2013
4-3 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 7:51 Ruutu (Westgarth)
+1 Westgarth - Hey! That was Kevin Westgarth beating four guys for the puck!
+1 Ruutu - Hey! That was Tuomo Ruutu going top shelf on Lundqvist!

3rd 0:49 Tlusty (Eric Staal)
+1 Tlusty - The lucky bounce off his skate is whatever, but look at how his feet started moving the instant he saw the puck headed toward Staal. He had his mind on scoring a goal the whole way up the ice.
+ Eric Staal - Interesting decision to pass so high in the zone. It worked out well.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 3:19 Stepan (Hagelin, Callahan)
-1 Blanchard - Technically this was Staal's lane, but he had moved up to forecheck. As the RW back, Blanchard was in position to cover the rush till he inexplicably crossed the ice (aka trying to do too much at the NHL level) and left Stepan alone for an easy goal.

1st 15:52 Brassard (Hagelin, Del Zotto)
-1 Skinner - There was a lot going on here, but it's hard to justify a center heading back to the bench during a defensive transition like this. This goal is almost entirely the result of not having 5 players involved in the defense, particularly in the slot when things fell apart.

OT 2:55 Callahan (Stepan, McDonough)
Goaltender error - Ellis - He was simply off his angle, which made fatal his lack of glove tracking.

Totals
+1 Ruutu
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
+1 Westgarth
-1 Blanchard
-1 Skinner
Error - Ellis

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 48 @ Pittsburgh Penguins
4/27/2013
8-3 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 12:30 Westgarth (Tlusty, Eric Staal)
+1 Faulk - He got lucky on the favorable deflection, but still he did a nice job of headmanning the rush.
+1 Eric Staal - #12 really is a beast when he explodes into the zone like that.
+1 Westgarth - Not just the goal, but it looks like he actually made a nice little touch pass to Staal in the neutral zone.

2nd 17:14 Ruutu (Jordan Staal, Dwyer)
+1 Ruutu - Boy oh boy, watch the high speed replay at the end of that clip. Curls a moving puck 6 inches from the goal line, loads it up and drills the water bottle over Fleury's outstretched pad. That was a thing of beauty.
+1 Dwyer - If he could do this regularly...
+1 Jordan Staal - If he could also do this regularly...

2nd 17:51 Westgarth (McBain, Eric Staal)
+1 Westgarth - I guess we should have seen Fleury's implosion coming when he started letting in frequent goals to Westgarth.
+1 Tlusty - Nicely placed screen, which was the real reason for the goal.
+1 McBain - Savvy touch pass off the faceoff.
+1 Eric Staal - Clean faceoff win directly to the right spot.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 4:10 Neal (Letang, Kunitz)
No minuses, as this was the immediate effect of an expiring power play.

2nd 16:10 Jokinen (Dupuis, Iginla)
-1 McBain - Knowing that he has Sangs and Peters behind him, that's an absolutely rotten pinch.
-1 Sanguinetti - He has been going to the Jay Harrison School of Defending 2-on-1s. If he stays on his feet and trusts his goalie, that rebound is not a threat. Instead he provides a nice little deflection and Jussi has probably the easiest goal of his season.

3rd 4:14 Neal (Malkin, Kunitz)
-1 Faulk - Just not a mentally sharp decision to pinch there.
-1 Bergeron - I guess this is about what we should expect when we see Bergeron up against a Malkin-Neal rush.

3rd 5:24 Morrow (Sutter, Cooke)
-1 Dwyer - Goes to the bench during an odd-man rush against, AND picks off his own defender for good measure. Ridiculous.
-1 McBain - He was in a bad position due to Dwyer's ineptitude, but still made it entirely too easy to get that pass through.

3rd 15:43 Cooke (Morrow, Martin)
-1 Faulk - Simply got embarrassed by a grinder. I'd imagine that quite a few remotes were thrown in the Carolinas.

3rd 19:11 Jokinen (Iginla, Letang)
-1 Faulk - At this point you know he just wanted the damn season to be over.

Totals
+2 Eric Staal
+2 Westgarth
+1 Ruutu
+1 Jordan Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Bergeron
-1 McBain
-1 Sanguinetti
-2 Faulk

 

[tomdundo]

Westgarth was a +2 in an 8-3 loss.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Westgarth was a +2 in an 8-3 loss.

That's got to be up there with Lebda's -3 in the 9-3 win.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Here are the final ratings from 2013, also updated in post #2.

Player | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Forwards | | | |
Nicholas Blanchard | 2 | - | +2 | -
Drayson Bowman | 6 | 2 | +4 | -
Zach Boychuk | - | - | 0 | -
Tim Brent | 2 | 2 | 0 | -
Zac Dalpe | 2 | - | +2 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 16 | 7 | +9 | +1
Dan Ellis | 1 | x | +1 | -
Adam Hall | - | 2 | -2 | -
Jussi Jokinen | 4 | 5 | -1 | -
Chad LaRose | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Riley Nash | 11 | 8 | +3 | -
Andreas Nodl | 1 | - | +1 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 8 | 1 | +7 | -
Alex Semin | 27 | 5 | +22 | -
Jeff Skinner | 16 | 9 | +7 | -
Eric Staal | 38 | 13 | +25 | -
Jordan Staal | 18 | 8 | +10 | -
Jiri Tlusty | 24 | 3 | +21 | -
Tim Wallace | 3 | 1 | +2 | -
Kevin Westgarth | 4 | - | +4 | -

Defensemen | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin of Error
Brett Bellemore | 2 | - | +2 | -
Marc-Andre Bergeron | 1 | 3 | -2 | -
Joe Corvo | 8 | 12 | -4 | +1
Justin Faulk | 10 | 15 | -5 | -
Tim Gleason | 9 | 10 | -1 | -1, +1
Jay Harrison | 10 | 10 | even | -
Michal Jordan | - | 2 | -2 | -
Jamie McBain | 6 | 12 | -6 | -
Ryan Murphy | - | 1 | -1 | -
Joni Pitkanen | 4 | 7 | -3 | -
Bobby Sanguinetti | 5 | 18 | -13 | -

Goaltender Errors

Player | Errors
Cam Ward | 6
Dan Ellis | 6
Justin Peters | 2

 

[WWAD]

Not in sexy table form, but here is a list of subjective +/- next to standard +/- and the deviation between the two. Biggest deviation is for J. Staal and Skinner with E. Staal not too far behind.


Player: Subj: +/-: Dev:

Nicholas Blanchard +2 -2 4
Drayson Bowman +4 -7 11
Zach Boychuk 0 0 0
Tim Brent 0 -3 3
Zac Dalpe +2 -7 9
Patrick Dwyer +9 -7 16
Dan Ellis +1 +1 2
Adam Hall -2 -2 0
Jussi Jokinen -1 -8 7
Chad LaRose +2 -8 10
Riley Nash 1 +3 -4 7
Andreas Nodl +1 +2 1
Tuomo Ruutu +7 -6 13
Alex Semin +22 +14 8
Jeff Skinner +7 -21 28
Eric Staal +25 +5 20
Jordan Staal +10 -18 28
Jiri Tlusty +21 +15 6
Tim Wallace +2 -9 11
Kevin Westgarth +4 +1 3
Brett Bellemore +2 -2 4
Marc-Andre Bergeron -2 -7 7
Joe Corvo -4 -3 1
Justin Faulk -5 -1 4
Tim Gleason -1 -3 2
Jay Harrison 0 -10 10
Michal Jordan -2 -2 0
Jamie McBain -6 0 6
Ryan Murphy -1 -4 3
Joni Pitkanen -3 +2 5
Bobby Sanguinetti -13 -6 7

 

[rocky7]

Game 22 vs Buffalo Sabres
3/5/2013
4-3 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 1:31 Tlusty (Eric Staal, Semin)
+1 Tlusty - When those kinds of deflections start going in, you know the hockey gods are smiling on him. But he earned it by preventing a turnover just beforehand.
+1 Semin - Another great example of the chemistry he's showing on that line.
+1 Eric Staal - Got bailed out of making a bad pass initially, but he made one heck of a smart play to put the puck toward Tlusty instead of on net. He also did a nice job forechecking to start the sequence.

3rd 1:15 Jokinen (Eric Staal, Semin)
+1 Semin - The chemistry he has with E. Staal is just unreal.
+1 Eric Staal - He should have drawn a penalty from Sekera too. Hard forechecking has earned him a lot of pluses this year.
+1 Jokinen - For a guy on a cold streak, these are the kinds of points that make a big difference. Just go to the net and pick up the garbage.

3rd 16:13 Semin (Eric Staal, Gleason)
+1 Semin - Dat wrister. Holy crap. Also, he shook off Gerbe like a gnat in the corner.
+1 Eric Staal - Yet another case of him jumping on a loose puck in the offensive zone, making a broken play work out.
+1 Harrison Gleason - Dicey play at the blue line, but he stuck with it and kept the possession alive at the critical moment.

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 0:25 Hodgson (Vanek, Pominville)
-1 Skinner - Just a poor defensive effort at both ends. Between him and Jordan, Buffalo was set up with a ton of speed through the neutral zone that pretty much screwed the rest of the defenders.
-1 Jordan Staal - What exactly was he trying to accomplish on the forecheck? Getting deked by Myers is embarrassing enough, let alone having the other center end up with an easy tap-in. That's the kind of play that makes defensemen and goalies look bad.

Totals
+3 Semin
+3 Eric Staal
+1 Harrison Gleason
+1 Jokinen
+1 Tlusty
-1 Skinner
-1 Jordan Staal

speaking about Skinner, at about 1:08 or so they score a goal and he gets decked from behind. he looked hurt. like a whiplash effect. sure he has to work/evolve his game to protect himself and in this particular clip he couldn't do anything anyhow. i hope the coaching staff is working with the kid and helping him somehow or Skinner is doomed. hopefully they can come up with a way to help him without his game losing it's effectiveness. they need Skinner to score and stay healthy.

i hope he has a good year because before he got hurt last year he was scoring goals.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

speaking about Skinner, at about 1:08 or so they score a goal and he gets decked from behind. he looked hurt. like a whiplash effect. sure he has to work/evolve his game to protect himself and in this particular clip he couldn't do anything anyhow. i hope the coaching staff is working with the kid and helping him somehow or Skinner is doomed. hopefully they can come up with a way to help him without his game losing it's effectiveness. they need Skinner to score and stay healthy.

i hope he has a good year because before he got hurt last year he was scoring goals.

I bet he gets outscored by Colin Wilson next year.

 

[Theokritos]

Bumped for reasons soon to be revealed.

 

[Woodhouse]

Bumped for reasons soon to be revealed.

And another stickied for reasons later to be revealed.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

speaking about Skinner, at about 1:08 or so they score a goal and he gets decked from behind. he looked hurt. like a whiplash effect. sure he has to work/evolve his game to protect himself and in this particular clip he couldn't do anything anyhow. i hope the coaching staff is working with the kid and helping him somehow or Skinner is doomed. hopefully they can come up with a way to help him without his game losing it's effectiveness. they need Skinner to score and stay healthy.

i hope he has a good year because before he got hurt last year he was scoring goals.

This made me sad.