Value of: 1st Overall Pick 2020 Trade Considered ?

[Rpenny]

The idea of a cap strapped team giving up at 1st overall elc is ridiculous.

as I just posted (sorry for the double post) Oilers trade the 1st, Neal, Kassian, and Russel to the devils for their 3 firsts? Devils fans riot

 

[Mackiaveli]

I was wondering if 1st overall would ever be available if the team that wins the lotto is a cap strapped team.

Winnipeg is the only team I think would/should move either Laine or Lafreniere - Little's contract and Perrault's contract can be tagged on and suddenly the jets open up 10,000,000 in space.

Montreal's 2020 1st (16OA), Montreal's 2021 1st (top 3 protected), Ryan Poehling, Jeff Petry (extended) and Max Domi (extended) for 1OA, Little and Perrault.

Jets add a legit forward prospect, a mid pick in a deep draft, a likely 10-14 lottery pick next year, a top 4RD, and a flexible forward who can play in their top 6 consistently as LW/C.

The Jets need to commit to winning in the Wheeler/Scheifele window because Hellebuyck is already 27 and they have no young centers in the pipeline. If they extend Petry for 3yr/7m and Domi for 6yr/7m, they would have enough cap space to add at the TDL using their picks, while holding on to Montreal's.

Connor/Scheifele/Laine
Domi/Wheeler/Ehlers
Copp/Lowry/Roslovic
X/X/X

Morrissey/Petry
X/Pionk
X/X

 

[bobholly39]

I would love to see Montreal make a play for Lafreniere. I also don't think it's as far fetched as some might believe. #1 overalls never get traded....but a year ago we also said RFA's never get offer sheeted, and Bergevin tried.
It's no secret Habs really wanted Lafreniere, and I could see them going "all-in" to try to land him. Obviously it depends largely what team ends up drafting him and if they'd be open to a trade, but the fact that so many 'higher seeds' are eligible for Laf who are in "win now" mode - I think this makes it more likely some of them would be open to a trade.

Oilers for example. Obviously having cost controlled elite winger to play with McDavid or Drai is attractive - but Oilers also need a lot of added depth. Maybe they forego the 1 elite talent for a package of pieces that sets them up to be a contender for years to come instead. Not sure exactly what the right value would be - but Romanov on D, one of Suzuki/Caulfield/KK on forwards, maybe a vet like Tatar (possibly with retention). Maybe add some picks of even salary dumps to even it out.

A team like Toronto could be similar too. They could certainly use an elite winger to go with Matthews or Tavares - but adding depth at other positions could be even more important.

 

[Huffer]

Winnipeg is the only team I think would/should move either Laine or Lafreniere - Little's contract and Perrault's contract can be tagged on and suddenly the jets open up 10,000,000 in space.

Montreal's 2020 1st (16OA), Montreal's 2021 1st (top 3 protected), Ryan Poehling, Jeff Petry (extended) and Max Domi (extended) for 1OA, Little and Perrault.

Jets add a legit forward prospect, a mid pick in a deep draft, a likely 10-14 lottery pick next year, a top 4RD, and a flexible forward who can play in their top 6 consistently as LW/C.

The Jets need to commit to winning in the Wheeler/Scheifele window because Hellebuyck is already 27 and they have no young centers in the pipeline. If they extend Petry for 3yr/7m and Domi for 6yr/7m, they would have enough cap space to add at the TDL using their picks, while holding on to Montreal's.

Connor/Scheifele/Laine
Domi/Wheeler/Ehlers
Copp/Lowry/Roslovic
X/X/X

Morrissey/Petry
X/Pionk
X/X

As a Jets fan I wouldn't do the OP, and I certainly wouldn't make this trade either.

 

[KingsHockey24]

I would package the 2nd overall pick + for Laf.

We've got plenty of cap space to pick-up a bad contract as well.

 

[dm1371]

You don't trade the first overall pick. Team that has it is excited to add a potential franchise player and team that wants it doesn't want to risk giving up way too much for ONE unproven player even if that said player is Lafreniere. It's not happening and really is that simple.

 

[steveat]

I would love to see Montreal make a play for Lafreniere. I also don't think it's as far fetched as some might believe. #1 overalls never get traded....but a year ago we also said RFA's never get offer sheeted, and Bergevin tried.
It's no secret Habs really wanted Lafreniere, and I could see them going "all-in" to try to land him. Obviously it depends largely what team ends up drafting him and if they'd be open to a trade, but the fact that so many 'higher seeds' are eligible for Laf who are in "win now" mode - I think this makes it more likely some of them would be open to a trade.

Oilers for example. Obviously having cost controlled elite winger to play with McDavid or Drai is attractive - but Oilers also need a lot of added depth. Maybe they forego the 1 elite talent for a package of pieces that sets them up to be a contender for years to come instead. Not sure exactly what the right value would be - but Romanov on D, one of Suzuki/Caulfield/KK on forwards, maybe a vet like Tatar (possibly with retention). Maybe add some picks of even salary dumps to even it out.

A team like Toronto could be similar too. They could certainly use an elite winger to go with Matthews or Tavares - but adding depth at other positions could be even more important.

I can't imagine the Habs NOT trying everything possible to get him, especially this year. They'll overpay I think. Just wondering if the teal that gets the pick is willing to do that trade

 

[Benstheman]

As a Jets fan I wouldn't do the OP, and I certainly wouldn't make this trade either.

Annnnnnnnnnd i certainly wouldn't do that as a Habs fan. Lafrenière is not McDavid for god sakes.

16OA + what would probably be a top 10 pick in 2021, maybe a top 5 considering we will suck losing Domi and Petry + Top 6, 25 yo centerman + Top 3 D + a B prospect is waaayyyyyyyyyyy too much for Lafrenière, let alone add 2 cap dumps with it. Let me put it in a draftpicks + prospects value :

16 OA in 2020
7 or 8 OA in 2021
12 OA in 2021 (approximate discussed value of Domi)
25 OA in 2021 + A prospect (value of Petry)
B prospect (Poehling)
1st + 2nd just to dump Perreault and Little contracts. And i really don't think it would cost less than that.

So 5 x 1st + A prospect + B prospect + 2nd for Lafrenière??

 

[CraigsList]

I don’t think it’ll ever happen.

Why? Because a franchise level winger on an ELC for 3 years is far greater value than anything you’re going to be offered. And with most of these teams usually in playoff spots, that’s more of a reason to keep him.

 

[Djp]

Not quite, in addition to the normal max ELC salary, Laf will have the usual 1OA package of max Schedule A $850k and max Schedule B $2M Performance Bonus, bringing his cap hit to $3.775 AAV.

The money doesn’t count against the functioning cap.

He earns the bonus it counts against unused cap and the 7.5% extra for bonus money, and ltir

 

[AKL]

I would package the 2nd overall pick + for Laf.

We've got plenty of cap space to pick-up a bad contract as well.

2nd oa+Turcotte for 1st oa? No bad contracts involved?

 

[Flukeshot]

Lafreniere (and anyone else drafted) will be on an ELC. His cap hit is irrelevant for 3 years.

This is absolutely the most relevant point. Even for the top teams in the running for the pick, his ELC contract is so valuable that they would be better off moving another player to save cap space or fix a different roster issue.

 

[KingsHockey24]

2nd oa+Turcotte for 1st oa? No bad contracts involved?

Deal.

 

[blinkman360]

I feel like, if the team who gets the 1st overall is OK with going this route, wouldn't they just rather call Ottawa and say "we'll give you the 1st overall if you take _____ off our hands and give us the 3rd pick"? I feel like Ottawa would be open to it, and the trading team will still get an elite talent in the draft.

 

[Huffer]

Annnnnnnnnnd i certainly wouldn't do that as a Habs fan. Lafrenière is not McDavid for god sakes.

16OA + what would probably be a top 10 pick in 2021, maybe a top 5 considering we will suck losing Domi and Petry + Top 6, 25 yo centerman + Top 3 D + a B prospect is waaayyyyyyyyyyy too much for Lafrenière, let alone add 2 cap dumps with it. Let me put it in a draftpicks + prospects value :

16 OA in 2020
7 or 8 OA in 2021
12 OA in 2021 (approximate discussed value of Domi)
25 OA in 2021 + A prospect (value of Petry)
B prospect (Poehling)
1st + 2nd just to dump Perreault and Little contracts. And i really don't think it would cost less than that.

So 5 x 1st + A prospect + B prospect + 2nd for Lafrenière??

How about the Jets trade Logan Stanley, Jack Roslovic, and Sami Niku for Nick Suzuki? That's 2 x 1st, and a guy who was the best D man in the AHL in 2018 when he was a 21 year old rookie for 1 guy!!!

Sarcasm aside, IF the Jets got the 1st pick, there's no reason they can't take Laf and use his ELC before making a decision on possibly moving a winger. Or they could move him, or a different player. Or maybe they could see if he could play center? If they moved him though, I think you're looking for elite young pieces back, and not mid round picks, and players like Petry and Domi, who are good, don't get mistaken that they are not good pieces, but they are also looking at two large contracts. I don't see a team getting a young possibly elite young player on an ELC moving him for sizable contracts coming the other way unless that said contract is attached to an elite young player as well.

 

[Benstheman]

How about the Jets trade Logan Stanley, Jack Roslovic, and Sami Niku for Nick Suzuki? That's 2 x 1st, and a guy who was the best D man in the AHL in 2018 when he was a 21 year old rookie for 1 guy!!!

Sarcasm aside, IF the Jets got the 1st pick, there's no reason they can't take Laf and use his ELC before making a decision on possibly moving a winger. Or they could move him, or a different player. Or maybe they could see if he could play center? If they moved him though, I think you're looking for elite young pieces back, and not mid round picks, and players like Petry and Domi, who are good, don't get mistaken that they are not good pieces, but they are also looking at two large contracts. I don't see a team getting a young possibly elite young player on an ELC moving him for sizable contracts coming the other way unless that said contract is attached to an elite young player as well.

I understand what you are saying but at that point, that package is way out of this world. This is just exagerated and too much for a player like Lafrenière. I think people are seeing him way to big if they don't think this package is way too much.

 

[cwede]

Read analysis such as Pronman and
Laf seems best F prospect since McD/Eichel/Matthews
I don't see that being moved for primarily Cap relief

only see 1stOA moving for a deep young package

3rd/5th/+,+,+ from Ottawa
8th/Cozzens/+,+,+ from Buffalo

From Devs, probably a deal fans won't want to do
7th/Smith/+,+,+

 

[Guffman]

Once we find out who gets the pick, HF Forums will assume the pick is tradable with a bunch of offers flooding these forums over the next few weeks.

 

[Artanis]

Read analysis such as Pronman and
Laf seems best F prospect since McD/Eichel/Matthews
I don't see that being moved for primarily Cap relief

only see 1stOA moving for a deep young package

3rd/5th/+,+,+ from Ottawa
8th/Cozzens/+,+,+ from Buffalo

From Devs, probably a deal fans won't want to do
7th/Smith/+,+,+

ahahahahahahhahahaahhaahahahahahahhah

 

[cwede]

ahahahahahahhahahaahhaahahahahahahhah

wasn't saying it was likely, but the upside risk is extreme,
so why does a team move him unless for a huge, "swing for the fences" package

which is really my point, it would take too much, so he wont get traded

folks here can sharpen their pencils, and concoct some package they can rationalize,
but it ain't gonna sway a real NHL GM...

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

I was wondering if 1st overall would ever be available if the team that wins the lotto is a cap strapped team.

As a Devils fan , would something like this even be considered ?

Devils offer :
2020 7th overall (NJ’s own pick)
2020 16th-20th pick approximate (via Canucks or Coyotes pick)
Severson - (Good bargain , low cost contract for useful player)

Team X - (cap strapped / in cap hell)
1st overall
Cap dump 1
Cap dump 2

Would any kind of structure like what’s listed above be a possibility or does the team who wins 1st overall take it and run . Even if already strong with forward depth ?

Pass.

 

[bernmeister]

Although there is a mathematical point at which too much is on the table to walk away from, it is unlikely any pieces offered would satisfy NYR need/desire to exploit this very rare piece of good fortune.

We need LaF to bookend Kreider w/Zib.

For NYR to EVEN JUST MERELY THINK about turning that down, would have to be something like:

Rangers 2020 1st 1OA + CAR 2020 1st + NYR 2021 2nd + Andersson + Smith + Huska
for
Dahlin + BUF 2020 1st 8OA + 2021 1st, unprotected, + Cozens + Laaksonen + Hutton


I understand if Sabes don't want to overpay.

Not imagining anyone else with enough close with assets NY would consider.

 

[mouser]

Although there is a mathematical point at which too much is on the table to walk away from, it is unlikely any pieces offered would satisfy NYR need/desire to exploit this very rare piece of good fortune.

We need LaF to bookend Kreider w/Zib.

For NYR to EVEN JUST MERELY THINK about turning that down, would have to be something like:

Rangers 2020 1st 1OA + CAR 2020 1st + NYR 2021 2nd + Andersson + Smith + Huska
for
Dahlin + BUF 2020 1st 8OA + 2021 1st, unprotected, + Cozens + Laaksonen + Hutton


I understand if Sabes don't want to overpay.

Not imagining anyone else with enough close with assets NY would consider.

I think you may be over complicating things. If Buffalo for some reason offered Dahlin straight up for 1st overall I’d give that a long long serious thought by the Rangers.

Franchise #1D is almost always more valuable then a franchise 1st line winger.

 

[Hockeyholic]

I think you may be over complicating things. If Buffalo for some reason offered Dahlin straight up for 1st overall I’d give that a long long serious thought by the Rangers.

The Sabres would be nuts to offer Dahlin for 1st OA. And the Rangers would be crazy to say no.

 

[haveandare]

The Sabres would be nuts to offer Dahlin for 1st OA. And the Rangers would be crazy to say no.

I would be very upset if they took that trade honestly.