Blue Jays Discussion: 1B Chris Colabello tests positive for PEDs; Suspended 80 games by MLB

[AllDay28]

That is absolutely not true, there were plenty of people upset with that trade the second it was announced it was a very mixed reaction from the minute it came out, myself being one that wasn't happy about trading our two top prospects for a 40 year old knuckleballer regardless of how good his last season was.

people were mad because fans, especially on hf, love prospects. everyone is gonna become a 5 star all star. So when they become something we get sad. Don't see any tears for the other guys we've traded (Oakland, Miami, among others). 1 player became elite out of it and we choose to sit and complain about it.

Let's forget we got Donaldson for Lawrie, which is 10x a better steal than Noah for Dickey because at least we got something out of Dickey (and some argue his 2nd half last year was his best ever).

Hindsight is 20/20.

 

[Mach85]

Was never a fan of the Dickey trade, but it's time to move on. The rate at which MLB prospects flame out is pretty telling. Heck remember Drabek? Syndergaard was able to put the work and is currently pitching at his utmost ceiling. He had a way to go at the time he was dealt but credit to him for figuring it out.

I think something like 20% of prospects ranking from 20-50 on Baseball America's Top 100 list make it (I can't remember the exact figure, I read it in a Fangraphs article recently), so in baseball perhaps more than any other sport trading prospects is less risky - provided one is confident in the commodity coming back, of course. Like you said, Thor put in the work and beat the odds, not just by making it, but by exceeding even his projections. It was an unlikely outcome.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

people were mad because fans, especially on hf, love prospects. everyone is gonna become a 5 star all star. So when they become something we get sad. Don't see any tears for the other guys we've traded (Oakland, Miami, among others). 1 player became elite out of it and we choose to sit and complain about it.

Let's forget we got Donaldson for Lawrie, which is 10x a better steal than Noah for Dickey because at least we got something out of Dickey (and some argue his 2nd half last year was his best ever).

Hindsight is 20/20.

The Donaldson trade was great. The Dickey trade was bad, the Donaldson trade being great doesn't make the Dickey trade any better they have nothing to do with each other.

 

[MJ65]

I know it's too early in the season but I hope this team can go on a run for some thing like 9-1 0r 8-2 in their next 10 games, so that we can put some distance with some of our rivals

 

[Mach85]

The Donaldson trade was great. The Dickey trade was bad, the Donaldson trade being great doesn't make the Dickey trade any better they have nothing to do with each other.

The point is, you win some, you lose some. We've been on the receiving end of one that turned out lopsided in our favour, and on the other end on this one, so let's not just focus on the latter. It's been discussed ad nauseum now. It's the nature of the beast when it comes to dealing volatile assets.

 

[metafour]

people were mad because fans, especially on hf, love prospects. everyone is gonna become a 5 star all star. So when they become something we get sad.

People were mad because the player we acquired was a 38 year old knuckleballer coming off a historical (and most likely unrepeatable) season. The problem is that we took on so much salary in the Miami trade that it forced us to overvalue the fact that Dickey would sign for only $25/2 (or $37/3 with the option). We let ourselves get into a position wherein financials skewed our decision making, and the outcome was giving up way too much to acquire a highly volatile asset.

Fans overrate prospects; but there would be nowhere near as much outrage had we acquired a more conventional (and safe) asset.

Let's forget we got Donaldson for Lawrie, which is 10x a better steal than Noah for Dickey because at least we got something out of Dickey (and some argue his 2nd half last year was his best ever).

I disagree for one simple (and huge) reason: money. Syndergaard is making peanuts and doesn't hit free-agency until 2022. The amount of surplus value he's going to create during that time frame will be absurd. A 5+ WAR season is expected this year; for a guy who will be paid $535K. Given age and years of control, he is very likely a more valuable asset than Donaldson. In two years we're going to be tasked with deciding whether we want to give 32 year old Josh Donaldson ~$200 million.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The point is, you win some, you lose some. We've been on the receiving end of one that turned out lopsided in our favour, and on the other end on this one, so let's not just focus on the latter. It's been discussed ad nauseum now. It's the nature of the beast when it comes to dealing volatile assets.

I mean it is what it is people talked about the Jays trading Micheal Young literally his entire career, it is going to be the same with Syndergaard.

 

[zeke]

Career numbers:

Stroman: 3.80 P/PA, 15.4 P/IP
Syndergaard: 3.92 P/PA, 15.7 P/IP

Stroman's marginally more "efficient" approach is highly overshadowed by the fact that Syndergaard gives up less hits, walks less batters, and therefore allows fewer runs. Stroman's ultra-efficient approach allows him to pitch marginally deeper into games, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when the alternative allows you to be much more EFFECTIVE by comparison.

Syndergaard is highly efficient himself, which you can see from the numbers. You're not talking about a guy who gets into long counts and therefore can only pitch 5-6 innings. This is because his command is so good (unlike many power pitchers who are wild).

1. that's not a marginal difference
2. Syndergaard gets to pitch to pitchers instead of designated hitters every game.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I just noticed on fangraphs Bautista's defensive portion of his WAR is positive while Donaldson's is negative.

The eye test sucks, even if it takes longer than this for defensive stats to stabilize and actually mean anything Jose has looked awful in the field this year and Donaldson has looked great.

 

[Epictetus]

GDT is open now.

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I dream of the day that the GDT is open in time for the game.

 

[zeke]

Noah vPitchers: 48pa, .186oops
Stro vPitchers: 0pa, ----

Noah vNon-Ptc: 632pa, .663oops
Stro vNon-Ptc: 723pa, .612oops

wee bit of an advantage there.

Noah v3rd PA in game: 184pa, .847oops
Stro v3rd PA in game: 180pa, .586oops

unsurprisingly, hitters figure noah out 3rd time through. Stro not so much.

 

[metafour]

Also, he can't be the best pitcher in baseball....that mantle belongs to Vincent Velasquez.









Because asinine comments deserve asinine answers

Is Velasquez still the best pitcher in baseball?

There is absolutely nothing asinine about claiming that Syndergaard looks like the best pitcher in baseball so far this season. Try watching a game or two.

 

[habamillions]

The Donaldson trade was great. The Dickey trade was bad, the Donaldson trade being great doesn't make the Dickey trade any better they have nothing to do with each other.

Dickey is 40. donaldson is 30 big difference. I would never trade a prospect with huge upside for a 40 year old player

 

[Canada4Gold]

Richard Urena just got pulled from the Dunedin game mid inning.

Ball was a groundball hit to right field so I can't imagine he hurt himself diving for it unless there was a shift. Maybe he hurt it earlier.

Hopefully it's not serious, would suck for him to miss development time too with Alford on the shelf

 

[The Nemesis]

Dickey is 40. donaldson is 30 big difference. I would never trade a prospect with huge upside for a 40 year old player

Syndergaard didn't have "huge upside" when the trade was made. He was seen as the 2nd of the Lansing 3, behind Sanchez and probable to be a workhorse mid rotation guy, not an elite top shelf starter.

 

[metafour]

Syndergaard didn't have "huge upside" when the trade was made. He was seen as the 2nd of the Lansing 3, behind Sanchez and probable to be a workhorse mid rotation guy, not an elite top shelf starter.

Wrong.

This was BA's writeup on Syndergaard when he was traded:

Syndergaard’s big frame gives him an imposing presence on the mound, and his fastball only adds to it. His heater ranges from 92-98 mph with excellent downward angle and armside run. His curveball has gained velocity since he signed and now sits in the mid-70s with downward action. It’s inconsistent and eventually may develop into a slider, but it gets outs and features good spin. He maintains his arm speed well on his mid-80s changeup. He has very good body control for his size, which leads to quality command and control. He has a ceiling of frontline starter, with remarkable polish for a teen power pitcher. Mets fans can dream of a future rotation with three bonafide frontline starters in righthanders Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Syndergaard. —Nathan Rode

Syndergaard was trending up QUICKLY by the time of that trade, whereas Sanchez was stagnating considerably. Syndergaard was traded in the offseason, and the very next BA Top 100 he ranked higher than Sanchez (before he threw a single pitch for the Mets).

Baseball Prospectus:

The secondary prospect in the deal is right-hander Noah Syndergaard, a tall Texan with big stuff and a good feel for pitching. The scouting report can make the lip quiver, thanks to a plus-plus fastball and two plus potential secondary offerings, but the inherent risk of pitching prospects and the professional resume that concludes at the Low-A level create a profile that is anything but a sure thing. Despite this uncertainty, Syndergaard has the type of promise that can haunt a team should he develop to maturity. In combination with d’Arnaud, the Jays are playing Russian roulette with Amityville Horror, a potential fright-fest that only winning at the major-league level can diminish should it appear.

 

[pcruz]

Wrong.

This was BA's writeup on Syndergaard when he was traded:



Syndergaard was trending up QUICKLY by the time of that trade, whereas Sanchez was stagnating considerably. Syndergaard was traded in the offseason, and the very next BA Top 100 he ranked higher than Sanchez (before he threw a single pitch for the Mets).

Baseball Prospectus:

Do you guys even read these scouting reports or just skip to the parts you like?

Both of them state that he may become something very good should he max out his potential.

Seeing as this is a hockey site, let's use that sport for analogies:

At one point, Nail Yakupov was touted as an up and coming star player. He has not lived up to potential. It's entirely possible that he does and it's even possible that he surpasses that.

It seems like Syn has definitely not busted, but there was always possibility.

Not only that, but the Jays got a steady, reliable pitcher who eats up 200+ innings and has been anywhere between above average and very good through his tenure here.

It wasn't a big trade when all things are considered, but it wasn't disastrous either. Who even knows what effect not having Dickey on this staff has on the growth of Stroman and Sanchez.

It's in the distant past, let it go.

 

[zeke]

healthy Saunders is a really good player.

 

[zeke]

and osuna in 8th = good gibby

 

[Suntouchable13]

Just to sidetrack this convo a bit, would you consider hitting JB 2nd and JD 3rd?

 

[Lightsol]

Syndergaard didn't have "huge upside" when the trade was made. He was seen as the 2nd of the Lansing 3, behind Sanchez and probable to be a workhorse mid rotation guy, not an elite top shelf starter.

I remember that too. I remember wondering if it was an amazing coincidence that moving from the Blue Jays to the Mets seemed to move him up the top 100 prospects list by 50 spots. Syndergaard was NEVER hyped in Toronto the way he was the second the Mets got ahold of him.

 

[Mad Brills*]

Syndergaard developed a ton in the mets system.

 

[Muston Atthews]

Just to sidetrack this convo a bit, would you consider hitting JB 2nd and JD 3rd?

JD and Bautista wouldn't

 

[Discoverer]

The strikezone plot for this game is hilarious. Umps in general are pretty bad, but tonight was a really special effort out there.