Blue Jays Discussion: 1B Chris Colabello tests positive for PEDs; Suspended 80 games by MLB

[Canada4Gold]

This part is not accurate. Statistics show that even the best pitchers see a noticeable drop in performance going the 4th time through the lineup. Very few pitchers are able to consistently avoid this phenomenon; which is probably why you see so many no-hitters broken up in that ~8th inning range where hitters are seeing a pitcher for the fourth time.

and when we need Cecil Storen, Osuna to come in relief for Stroman because he we can do that, and then we need them the next start, and then the 3rd day, they're not available. And we end up with someone like Leon pitching.

I get what you're saying, but I prefer not to have to go to the pen when your starter is at 85 pitches or whatever when doing that every time is going to result with your best pen arms being overworked and not available when the starters could have went another inning to reduce that workload.

 

[Eyedea]

The K/BB rate is still a cause for concern, even in a rather small sample size from Stroman. A guy that posted elite numbers through the minors shouldn't have such a difficult time putting a player away with two strikes.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Not to mention bringing in another pitcher is always an unknown. Yes it's their job to come into the game and pitch like they always do but you don't know exactly how good they're going to be. They all have off days. If Stroman is through 6 with 80 pitches and pitching well he's a good option to go back out there until he proves otherwise. If you instead choose to go to 3 pitchers 1 for each inning, you're increasing your chances 1 of them is going to have their off day on that day. Rather than just going to 2 of them or who knows just 1 of them if Stro can get through the 8th.

 

[The Nemesis]

I said the difference between Stroman and Kershaw, Scherzer, Thor, etc. was K rate. And that makes the latter group on a different level than Stroman right now. That's it. It'd be a pretty asinine argument to make to make to say that execs wouldn't take the latter group over Stroman all other things being equal (age, control, etc.), and that's probably largely because of stuff and K rate, I think it's fair to say. But in no way did I say that means K rate is a necessary component of ANY elite pitcher of ANY era, which is what you introduced to the conversation and is a logical leap.

Then you extrapolated that to listing a multitude of "excellent" pitchers with lower k rates to insinuate that I think all pitchers with low k rates can't be "excellent," while passive-aggressively throwing in a dig with the "non-elite territory" comment.

There was nothing passive-aggressive about the "non-elite territory". I was admitting that the group of pitchers I was going to select for my example would likely include a several guys that by any criteria could be argued as not being elite enough for the conversation. The ones like David Wells or Matt Cain. Whether you want to argue eliteness along the same dividing line as BBHOF admission or statistical thresholds or whatever the choice may be. It was never made with passive-aggressive intent.

If anything, the most passive-aggressive I ever got was right out of the gate with the "Roy is clearly not elite" comment.

and your argument still relies on the assertion that k-rate is necessary for eliteness (in whatever era you want to limit discussion to). Clearly execs will take Kershaw and Scherzer and whoever else above Stroman because they've shown themselves to be better. Better by most appreciable measures of success/performance. You were the one that said that their being better is, to some significant extent, born out of the higher k-rate. You cannot draw that line in the sand for this example and then say it doesn't extend beyond. If it's going to hold true for Kershaw/Scherzer/whoever vs Stroman, it has to hold true elsewhere too.

But whatever. We're going in circles at this point. Probably best to let it be.

 

[Apotheosis]

As someone who has brought up the Thor trade so much, I've gotten over and anyone else who hasn't should to. He's gone, it was a bad trade, get over it. Yeah he looks dominant. And yeah it would be awesome to have him in a rotation with Stroman and Sanchez for years, but you win and you lose some. That's about it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

As someone who has brought up the Thor trade so much, I've gotten over and anyone else who hasn't should to. He's gone, it was a bad trade, get over it. Yeah he looks dominant. And yeah it would be awesome to have him in a rotation with Stroman and Sanchez for years, but you win and you lose some. That's about it.

I'm normally 1 who would be drove crazy by Sydnergaard conversation but oddly this time I'm not, maybe because this conversation doesn't appear to be of the "wah wah wah can't believe we traded him away, I'm a big baby and I want to cry about it every couple of weeks" variety and more of the actual discussion of how good he actually is as a pitcher.

I don't think we can restrict and get annoyed by discussion of certain pitchers and how good they are. By all means talk about how great Syndergaard is just like someone mighgt mention how great Bryce Harper is. It's when it gets into the whining about the trade territory. it gets on my nerves

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

The K/BB rate is still a cause for concern, even in a rather small sample size from Stroman. A guy that posted elite numbers through the minors shouldn't have such a difficult time putting a player away with two strikes.

Its a product of the overuse of the sinker. When he had the k rates in double-A that we remember, that was almost exclusively four-seam, curve\slider\cutter\change. He threw the four seamer less than 10% when he returned from injury last year and in April of this year. I think his pitch mix could most certainly be revamped, but that's on him and Martin to figure out.

I think he could easily be in Gerrit Cole territory in terms of K/BB if he simply adjusted to be 4-seam (16%), Sinker (40%), Curve (12%), Slider (12%), change (10%), Cutter (10%).

Just for reference, he's thrown breaking balls less than 20% of the time in his first three starts. The idea that he's struck as many out as he has with that mix is ridiculous in and of itself.

 

[Mach85]

There was nothing passive-aggressive about the "non-elite territory". I was admitting that the group of pitchers I was going to select for my example would likely include a several guys that by any criteria could be argued as not being elite enough for the conversation. The ones like David Wells or Matt Cain. Whether you want to argue eliteness along the same dividing line as BBHOF admission or statistical thresholds or whatever the choice may be. It was never made with passive-aggressive intent.

If anything, the most passive-aggressive I ever got was right out of the gate with the "Roy is clearly not elite" comment.

and your argument still relies on the assertion that k-rate is necessary for eliteness (in whatever era you want to limit discussion to). Clearly execs will take Kershaw and Scherzer and whoever else above Stroman because they've shown themselves to be better. Better by most appreciable measures of success/performance. You were the one that said that their being better is, to some significant extent, born out of the higher k-rate. You cannot draw that line in the sand for this example and then say it doesn't extend beyond. If it's going to hold true for Kershaw/Scherzer/whoever vs Stroman, it has to hold true elsewhere too.

But whatever. We're going in circles at this point. Probably best to let it be.

I apologize if I misread your intent.

Kershaw and Scherzer have shown themselves to be better in no small part because of their k rates - inducing that kind of weak contact is going to lead to fewer runs over the course of a season, and is goign to lead to measurable differences between two pitchers, one of whom does not have a high k rate.

And of course I can draw that line when we're just talking about comparing a set of 4 or 5 pitchers lol. If someone asks me essentially, "what makes Stroman not on Kershaw or Scherzer's level" and I answer "k rate" it's pretty unnatural to say "oh, I better add that that doesn't mean that Halladay, Oswalt, Matt Cain...and, oh, Boomer Wells aren't on that level as well."

But yes we're getting repetitive, and that's my piece. My whole original point, and what DJQ valiantly tried to interject as well (DJQ trying to bring down the controversy level?! My God!) is that Stroman and Syndergaard are both #1 starters, and I'm very happy to have one of them. Syndergaard is probably the guy you'd pick if you had a choice, but I'm more than happy slotting Stroman in at the top of our rotation.

 

[metafour]

He's more overrated now than he was in late Feb\early March (despite what oddly harassing PM's may say).

Glad to see that you're doubling down on the hilarity. You were wrong then, and you're even more wrong now. I'll admit, not even I would have predicted this level of dominance from Syndergaard. He looks like the best pitcher in baseball: a frightening combination of raw stuff and command.

I told you ~2 months ago that his flukey HR rate was the only thing that made his FIP-related metrics look anywhere near obviously inferior pitchers like Martinez, Gray, etc. SIERA proved that.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Glad to see that you're doubling down on the hilarity. You were wrong then, and you're even more wrong now. I'll admit, not even I would have predicted this level of dominance from Syndergaard. He looks like the best pitcher in baseball: a frightening combination of raw stuff and command.

I told you ~2 months ago that his flukey HR rate was the only thing that made his FIP-related metrics look anywhere near obviously inferior pitchers like Martinez, Gray, etc. SIERA proved that.

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "overrated".

Also, stop cherrying picking portions of posts. Its unbecoming.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Also, he can't be the best pitcher in baseball....that mantle belongs to Vincent Velasquez.









Because asinine comments deserve asinine answers

 

[Ciao]

1. My heart aches for Thor. It was a dumb trade to begin with, but it's over and done with. Time to move on, long ago. It's just one of those things.

2. I couldn't care less about the stats. I just like watching a pitcher get a quick 1-2-3 inning with balls in play. It keeps the defence in the game and gets the offense back up to bat while they're still hot, and especially so after your team has produced something in the middle innings.

3. Strikeouts are okay, but walks suck. Give me a pitcher who gets some strikeouts, gives up a few hits, but doesn't walk anybody and generally doesn't have to go too deep into counts.

4. Marcus Stroman is my kind of guy. So was Roy Halladay. Both a joy to watch.

5. While I hate the walk I don't mind the odd HBP. I've heard it said about Don Drysdale "the trick is to hit him before he hits you.". A little inside action keeps everyone on their toes, and hopefully promotes swings and keeps things moving. Maybe just my imagination, but that's what I like

 

[Apotheosis]

I'm normally 1 who would be drove crazy by Sydnergaard conversation but oddly this time I'm not, maybe because this conversation doesn't appear to be of the "wah wah wah can't believe we traded him away, I'm a big baby and I want to cry about it every couple of weeks" variety and more of the actual discussion of how good he actually is as a pitcher.

I don't think we can restrict and get annoyed by discussion of certain pitchers and how good they are. By all means talk about how great Syndergaard is just like someone mighgt mention how great Bryce Harper is. It's when it gets into the whining about the trade territory. it gets on my nerves

He's going to be the best pitcher or close to being the best in the MLB one day. I have no doubts about that. Guys who can control the kind of power he has behind the ball come around once in a blue moon (think the Nationals have a guy in their system just like that. Would love to see the Jays get him, but doubt they trade him to us). It's revisionist history. You win some trades and you lose some trades. We got rid of an injury prone 3B for the future AL MVP (and looks poised early on to repeat that).

 

[metafour]

Kershaw and Scherzer have shown themselves to be better in no small part because of their k rates - inducing that kind of weak contact is going to lead to fewer runs over the course of a season, and is goign to lead to measurable differences between two pitchers, one of whom does not have a high k rate.

Bingo. High strikeout pitchers induce weaker contact than low strikeout pitchers; this is even true for groundball pitchers: they are most effective when they are putting batters away on top of inducing groundballs.

 

[Eyedea]

Its a product of the overuse of the sinker. When he had the k rates in double-A that we remember, that was almost exclusively four-seam, curve\slider\cutter\change. He threw the four seamer less than 10% when he returned from injury last year and in April of this year. I think his pitch mix could most certainly be revamped, but that's on him and Martin to figure out.

I think he could easily be in Gerrit Cole territory in terms of K/BB if he simply adjusted to be 4-seam (16%), Sinker (40%), Curve (12%), Slider (12%), change (10%), Cutter (10%).

Just for reference, he's thrown breaking balls less than 20% of the time in his first three starts. The idea that he's struck as many out as he has with that mix is ridiculous in and of itself.

I don't disagree that he is using his sinker far more than is to be expected, but in the three starts so far he has thrown his slider the most (36% of the time) with two strikes.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Well that's just plain untrue. strikeouts are the least efficient way to get guys out. They may be the most reliable way to get an out if you can do it with regularity, but reliability and efficiency are not the same thing.

other food for thought: Greg Maddux only hit 7 k/9 twice in his career.

I know I risk dipping into the "not elite" category, but John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite, Mike Mussina, David Wells, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren, Orel Hersheiser, Jimmy Key, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jack Morris, and Matt Cain have all been excellent pitchers over the last 30 years with K/9 rates under 8.

Okay I agree it was a poor choice of wording maybe they aren't the most efficient way but the are the lowest risk way to get outs also I don't think there is any one blueprint to being a great pitcher there are people here totally under selling the importance of Stroman's K rate, elite groundball pitcher or not if he is the number one we all want him to be his K rate has to be over 6 at minimum now I'm not saying it won't it very well could stabilize and go back upwards of where he usually is but regardless of all the other stuff he does need to strike more batters out.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

People are still complaining about the Thor trade? Jeez people, it happened 4 years ago and he was traded for the reigning Cy Young winner. You can't argue that giving up a prospect for one of the top pitchers in baseball didn't make sense for a team trying to contend. Hindsight is 20/20.

That is absolutely not true, there were plenty of people upset with that trade the second it was announced it was a very mixed reaction from the minute it came out, myself being one that wasn't happy about trading our two top prospects for a 40 year old knuckleballer regardless of how good his last season was.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I don't disagree that he is using his sinker far more than is to be expected, but in the three starts so far he has thrown his slider the most (36% of the time) with two strikes.

The slider didn't suddenly just turn non-plus overnight. The whiff rate on breaking stuff remains in line with 2014 vs. the small sample from last fall. I think the majority of it is mix.

Most major league batters can identify the difference between a sinker (especially one with great pronounced break) and a slider. That can't be said for a four-seamer and a slider, or a four-seamer and a cutter (or of course the four-seamer and the change). If I know he's going slider with two strikes, I can lay off or sit back and foul it off, while also being able to pick up a sinker and foul it off as well.

If they suddenly flipped the script, and threw 20% four seamers tonight (while maintaining the exact same 36% slider with two strikes rate), it wouldn't surprise me if he struck out ten. The pitch count likely wouldn't take a drastic hike either considering teams are clearly gameplanning for the sinker and slider while ignoring the other pitches. Add in the Showalter over-scouting touch, and 10 might be conservative. Trouble is, Pete Walker is, well Pete Walker and the only two people thinking about this are you and I.

 

[BayStreetBully]

Kershaw's absolutely in a league of his own, so that one's a no-brainer. But if you compare Halladay's seasons with the Jays to Scherzer and Bumgarner's careers, the four best seasons by fWAR are all Halladay's. He also has two partial seasons ('01 and '05) that are better on a per-start basis but he missed time.

I never thought Halladay would become underrated by Jays fans.

Dating back to the 80's, I wouldn't take anyone over Halladay except for Clemens, Maddux, Randy, Pedro and Kershaw. Glavine has his 300 wins and Schilling has his rings, but Halladay put together an incredible stretch of about 8 years where he was the best or almost the best in baseball, all the while doing it in the tough AL East in a high scoring and steroid era in a batter-friendly ballpark.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

On December 17th, 2012, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets made official a blockbuster trade involving the reigning NL Cy Young winner and two consensus top 30 prospects. The Mets sent thirty-eight year old knuckle ball ace R.A. Dickey to Toronto, along with backup catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. The deal involved a two-year, $25 million extension for Dickey beyond his immediate one-year, $5 million contract.

Heading to Flushing were four players: top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, similarly elite pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, major league backup catcher John Buck, and minor league outfielder Wuilmer Becerra.


Mets won !

 

[BackHandShelf22]

Wow. Now that I read that press clipping it all seems clear. What kind of lure is that?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Was never a fan of the Dickey trade, but it's time to move on. The rate at which MLB prospects flame out is pretty telling. Heck remember Drabek? Syndergaard was able to put the work and is currently pitching at his utmost ceiling. He had a way to go at the time he was dealt but credit to him for figuring it out.

 

[barilko05]

On December 17th, 2012, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets made official a blockbuster trade involving the reigning NL Cy Young winner and two consensus top 30 prospects. The Mets sent thirty-eight year old knuckle ball ace R.A. Dickey to Toronto, along with backup catchers Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas. The deal involved a two-year, $25 million extension for Dickey beyond his immediate one-year, $5 million contract.

Heading to Flushing were four players: top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud, similarly elite pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard, major league backup catcher John Buck, and minor league outfielder Wuilmer Becerra.


Mets won !

And if Thor blows his arm out and turns into Dustin McGowan, and the Jays win the World Series this year, with Dickey a significant contributor, do the Mets still win? Oh wait...we don't know what will happen. So lets say the Mets are currently WINNING. Frankly, I'll take the title and call it a draw...if it happens.

BTW...the Tigers dealt John Smoltz to the Braves in 87 for Doyle Alexander. It helped them win a division title. Dour Doyle pitched had 2 more productive seasons for Detroit, while Smoltz went on to be a HOFer with the Braves. And while the Tigers I'm sure regretted the deal IN TIME, they got past it. Just like we should.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[TheBeastCoast]

And if Thor blows his arm out and turns into Dustin McGowan, and the Jays win the World Series this year, with Dickey a significant contributor, do the Mets still win? Oh wait...we don't know what will happen. So lets say the Mets are currently WINNING. Frankly, I'll take the title and call it a draw...if it happens.

BTW...the Tigers dealt John Smoltz to the Braves in 87 for Doyle Alexander. It helped them win a division title. Dour Doyle pitched had 2 more productive seasons for Detroit, while Smoltz went on to be a HOFer with the Braves. And while the Tigers I'm sure regretted the deal IN TIME, they got past it. Just like we should.

Isn't that kind of a flawed argument seeing as the Mets made it to the World Series last year?