19 All-Star teams vs 2857 points

[overpass]

Can you elaborate on this? This sounds like a very interest and smart metric but I can't seem to figure out the math behind it.

I probably haven't explained it clearly enough. It's not too complicated. I'll walk through the calculation for a single season.

The 1985-86 Edmonton Oilers scored 78 goals on the power play in 295 opportunities, while allowing 15 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +63 in 295 power play opportunities.

The average NHL team in 1985-86 scored 82 goals in 370 opportunities, while allowing 11 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +71 in 370 opportunities. This translates to +56.6 in 295 opportunities, so the 1985-86 Oilers were +6.4 goals on the power play (63-56.6).

Similarly, on the penalty kill they were -50 in 409 times shorthanded (27 SHGF - 77 PPGA). A league-average team would be -78.5 in 409 times shorthanded, so Edmonton was +28.5 on the penalty kill that year.

I did the calculations above for Gretzky and Bourque's teams over their careers to obtain the numbers I posted.

I've always considered +/- a team statistic, but you do make a great point that when it comes to players like Gretzky and Bourque, they're more so responsible for it than most players we name today. So in this case, you're probably completely right.

I think this is a very interesting quantitative study, would love to see it expanded

There might be possibilities to expand it somewhat, but I think it would have to be limited to the very best players, simply because for most players +/- and team special teams success is more of a team statistic.

 

[overpass]

Can you elaborate on this? This sounds like a very interest and smart metric but I can't seem to figure out the math behind it.

I probably haven't explained it clearly enough. It's not too complicated. I'll walk through the calculation for a single season.

The 1985-86 Edmonton Oilers scored 78 goals on the power play in 295 opportunities, while allowing 15 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +63 overall in 295 power play opportunities.

The average NHL team in 1985-86 scored 82 goals in 370 opportunities, while allowing 11 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +71 in 370 opportunities. This translates to +56.6 in 295 opportunities, so the 1985-86 Oilers were +6.4 goals above league average on the power play (63-56.6).

Similarly, on the penalty kill they were -50 overall in 409 times shorthanded (27 SHGF - 77 PPGA). A league-average team would be -78.5 in 409 times shorthanded, so Edmonton was +28.5 above league average on the penalty kill that year.

I did the calculations above for Gretzky and Bourque's teams over their careers to obtain the numbers I posted.

I've always considered +/- a team statistic, but you do make a great point that when it comes to players like Gretzky and Bourque, they're more so responsible for it than most players we name today. So in this case, you're probably completely right.

I think this is a very interesting quantitative study, would love to see it expanded

There might be possibilities to expand it somewhat, but I think it would have to be limited to the very best players, simply because for most players +/- and team special teams success is more of a team statistic.

I've made an attempt at adjusting plus-minus for teammate support here, if you haven't seen it. I think I did a pretty good job in stretching plus-minus about as far as it can go. And even so, most players' numbers will probably reflect the context they played in as much as their actual performance. It's most valuable for the great players who were true difference makers or who we would expect to be true difference makers.

I would like to develop a single number rating for a player's special teams performance, but I think any such attempt would be inaccurate and overly simplistic, especially for penalty killing.

A very interesting post.

I am certainly one of Bubba's biggest supporters. I made it a personal crusade to see Bourque get into the top ten in our section's Top 100 debate, lol. I quite literally saw Ray's entire career. Virtually every game he ever played, hundreds of those being live at the Garden.

With all that being said I still give the edge to Gretz. But I do appreciate the study, and what it can do towards showing the true force that Bourque was for those who didn't have the pleasure of seeing his career unfold.

The edge to 99 is distinct, despite him being blessed with a far superior supporting cast for many of his seasons, but Ray coming in as one of the top ten players in history is still pretty good

For you and all those who posted that Gretzky was better, I agree. There's a reason he won 9 Hart Trophies in the 1980s - he was just on another level from Bourque in the 1980s, a level that Bourque never reached and wasn't capable of reaching.

But Bourque maintained his high level of play for far longer, while Gretzky played most of the 1990s as a shadow of his former self, as a minus player who was no longer a deadly shorthanded threat and who piled up power play points on slightly above average power plays. He was still a good player to be sure, and he had his moments, like the 1993 playoffs, but I don't think he provided the overall value that Bourque did in those years.

I really don't mean to knock Gretzky by saying this. I think he was all that in the 1980s, he smashed scoring records and led his team to 4 Cups and nothing can take that away from him. But I think it's his peak, not his career total of 2857 points, that made him great. When using more team-oriented statistical measures, Gretzky's career looks like Orr's, with an incredible decade or so off the start, but then with another decade or so of compiling stats tacked on. Bourque's career is more like Gordie Howe's in shape, but lacking Howe's early peak and playoff success.

 

[Infinite Vision*]

I probably haven't explained it clearly enough. It's not too complicated. I'll walk through the calculation for a single season.

The 1985-86 Edmonton Oilers scored 78 goals on the power play in 295 opportunities, while allowing 15 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +63 in 295 power play opportunities.

The average NHL team in 1985-86 scored 82 goals in 370 opportunities, while allowing 11 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +71 in 370 opportunities. This translates to +56.6 in 295 opportunities, so the 1985-86 Oilers were +6.4 goals on the power play (63-56.6).

Similarly, on the penalty kill they were -50 in 409 times shorthanded (27 SHGF - 77 PPGA). A league-average team would be -78.5 in 409 times shorthanded, so Edmonton was +28.5 on the penalty kill that year.

I did the calculations above for Gretzky and Bourque's teams over their careers to obtain the numbers I posted.



There might be possibilities to expand it somewhat, but I think it would have to be limited to the very best players, simply because for most players +/- and team special teams success is more of a team statistic.

So the year Gretzky had more assists than anyone had points, his team had 75 less, or 1/4 less powerplays than the average team? If that's true that's kind of shocking to say the least.

 

[overpass]

So the year Gretzky had more assists than anyone had points, his team had 75 less, or 1/4 less powerplays than the average team? If that's true that's kind of shocking to say the least.

Yeah, when you see things like that, or like the 8-67-5 Washington Capitals in 1974-75 having the most power play opportunities in the league, it kind of makes you wonder about the directions that the league was giving to referees in the regular season.

 

[lextune]

I really don't mean to knock Gretzky by saying this. I think he was all that in the 1980s, he smashed scoring records and led his team to 4 Cups and nothing can take that away from him. But I think it's his peak, not his career total of 2857 points, that made him great. When using more team-oriented statistical measures, Gretzky's career looks like Orr's, with an incredible decade or so off the start, but then with another decade or so of compiling stats tacked on. Bourque's career is more like Gordie Howe's in shape, but lacking Howe's early peak and playoff success.

And I, for one, agree.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, when you see things like that, or like the 8-67-5 Washington Capitals in 1974-75 having the most power play opportunities in the league, it kind of makes you wonder about the directions that the league was giving to referees in the regular season.

Wow, now that is an interesting anomaly.

 

[canucks4ever]

This was the first year that Mario finally caught up with Gretzky and arguably surpassed him. While I would have likely picked Mario to win the Hart in '89 I can also see why Gretzky won it with a worse supporting cast.

But as for 1980, it's no contest for me. Gretzky won it, and deserved it. He had 137 points and his next best teammate was Blair MacDonald who had 94. What happened to Blair after that? He left Edmonton and the next three years of his career managed to score 45 goals in total before dropping out of the NHL in 1983. People forget, that it wasn't until the 1981-'82 season where Gretzky actually had a good team alongside of him.

Well in 1980 Dionne got lester b pearson and first team at center.

I can also argue that from 1992-1999, Ray Bourque was better than Wayne Gretzky.

 

[Canadiens1958]

The Gretzky Rule

I probably haven't explained it clearly enough. It's not too complicated. I'll walk through the calculation for a single season.

The 1985-86 Edmonton Oilers scored 78 goals on the power play in 295 opportunities, while allowing 15 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +63 in 295 power play opportunities.

The average NHL team in 1985-86 scored 82 goals in 370 opportunities, while allowing 11 shorthanded goals. Therefore, they were +71 in 370 opportunities. This translates to +56.6 in 295 opportunities, so the 1985-86 Oilers were +6.4 goals on the power play (63-56.6).

Similarly, on the penalty kill they were -50 in 409 times shorthanded (27 SHGF - 77 PPGA). A league-average team would be -78.5 in 409 times shorthanded, so Edmonton was +28.5 on the penalty kill that year.

I did the calculations above for Gretzky and Bourque's teams over their careers to obtain the numbers I posted.

Curious - what kind of numbers did the Oilers generate 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 before the rule was changed-coincidental minors? The Bruins with Bourque did not seem to have an advantage in this regard.