overpass
Registered User
- Jun 7, 2007
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Bourque vs Gretzky!
No, I'm not arguing that Bourque was comparable to Gretzky overall. But I think in one major aspect, he may have surpassed the Great One. I'm speaking of regular season career value. That's why I titled the thread as I did - the focus is on regular season career only, not 92 goals, 215 points, or 4 Stanley Cups, or their overall resume. Gretzky certainly has the better playoff record and a better peak.
I'll take a basic statistical approach here, estimating their value at even strength, power play, and on the penalty kill over their career. For even strength, I'll simply use plus-minus, with shorthanded goals for and against estimated and removed. On special teams, I don't have any way to separate individual contribution from team contribution, so I'll simply use team goals above average on the penalty kill and on the power play. I think it's a fair assumption that these great players were the most responsible for their team's success in these areas. The exception to this is that I zeroed out Gretzky's penalty kill numbers later in his career, when his team was below average and he rarely killed penalties.
Here are the career numbers in goals above average, using these metrics.
Situation | Ray Bourque | Wayne Gretzky
Even Strength | 535 | 522
Power Play | 138 | 129
Penalty Kill | 147 | 131
Total | 820 | 782
Their numbers are remarkably close, but Ray Bourque comes out on top in every situation.
Why is this the case? A closer look reveals that Gretzky's numbers were far better during his 1980's peak, but Bourque made up a ton of ground and passed him during the 1990s.
From 1979-80 to 1987-88, during Gretzky's time in Edmonton:
Situation | Ray Bourque | Wayne Gretzky
Even Strength | 326 | 505
Power Play | 30 | 79
Penalty Kill | 88 | 131
Total | 444 | 715
And from 1988-89 on:
Situation | Ray Bourque | Wayne Gretzky
Even Strength | 209 | 17
Power Play | 108 | 50
Penalty Kill | 59 | 0
Total | 376 | 67
What do you think? Were Bourque's all-around contributions enough to match Gretzky's 2857 points? Also, I don't have the numbers to add Gordie Howe to this comparison, but where do you think he fits in here?
Methodological note: I could have added more adjustments for teammate strength (similar to adjusted plus-minus), or adjusted for league scoring level. I didn't for two reasons. One is that I didn't want to take the time for a quick comparison like this. The other is that every adjustment would benefit Bourque. By any measure he had weaker teammates than Gretzky over his career. Adjusting for scoring level would also reduce Gretzky's peak numbers from the 1980s, while boosting Bourque's numbers from the 1990s. I think my point is made even without those adjustments.
Also, I wouldn't use these crude team-based methods to rank most players, but with players like Bourque and Gretzky I think it's OK. I think it's definitely more accurate than a stat like points, which fails to capture much of the contribution that a defenceman like Bourque provided.
No, I'm not arguing that Bourque was comparable to Gretzky overall. But I think in one major aspect, he may have surpassed the Great One. I'm speaking of regular season career value. That's why I titled the thread as I did - the focus is on regular season career only, not 92 goals, 215 points, or 4 Stanley Cups, or their overall resume. Gretzky certainly has the better playoff record and a better peak.
I'll take a basic statistical approach here, estimating their value at even strength, power play, and on the penalty kill over their career. For even strength, I'll simply use plus-minus, with shorthanded goals for and against estimated and removed. On special teams, I don't have any way to separate individual contribution from team contribution, so I'll simply use team goals above average on the penalty kill and on the power play. I think it's a fair assumption that these great players were the most responsible for their team's success in these areas. The exception to this is that I zeroed out Gretzky's penalty kill numbers later in his career, when his team was below average and he rarely killed penalties.
Here are the career numbers in goals above average, using these metrics.
Even Strength | 535 | 522
Power Play | 138 | 129
Penalty Kill | 147 | 131
Total | 820 | 782
Their numbers are remarkably close, but Ray Bourque comes out on top in every situation.
Why is this the case? A closer look reveals that Gretzky's numbers were far better during his 1980's peak, but Bourque made up a ton of ground and passed him during the 1990s.
From 1979-80 to 1987-88, during Gretzky's time in Edmonton:
Even Strength | 326 | 505
Power Play | 30 | 79
Penalty Kill | 88 | 131
Total | 444 | 715
And from 1988-89 on:
Even Strength | 209 | 17
Power Play | 108 | 50
Penalty Kill | 59 | 0
Total | 376 | 67
What do you think? Were Bourque's all-around contributions enough to match Gretzky's 2857 points? Also, I don't have the numbers to add Gordie Howe to this comparison, but where do you think he fits in here?
Methodological note: I could have added more adjustments for teammate strength (similar to adjusted plus-minus), or adjusted for league scoring level. I didn't for two reasons. One is that I didn't want to take the time for a quick comparison like this. The other is that every adjustment would benefit Bourque. By any measure he had weaker teammates than Gretzky over his career. Adjusting for scoring level would also reduce Gretzky's peak numbers from the 1980s, while boosting Bourque's numbers from the 1990s. I think my point is made even without those adjustments.
Also, I wouldn't use these crude team-based methods to rank most players, but with players like Bourque and Gretzky I think it's OK. I think it's definitely more accurate than a stat like points, which fails to capture much of the contribution that a defenceman like Bourque provided.
