GDT: #18 – Sabres at Wild – Thu Nov 13, 8:00PM ET – MSG-B, BELL TV – WBEN

[gallagt01]

I went to the game tonight and saw this team up close and personal, there are some good pieces here, but few and far between. The biggest disappointment I saw was Gionta, he's just a shell of the player he once was and doesn't carry the puck into the zone anymore. He's not skating with any passion at all and quite frankly, I hate to see the young kids on this team learn from his laziness. There must be someone in Rochester that can take his roster spot because it is time to cut the cancer before it spreads.

Come on now.

 

[Zip15]

Come on, really? With this team?

Minny is one of the best possession teams in the league. It's beyond splitting hairs to go to fenwick and corsi close.

I don't know why you're often so defensive when people disagree with you, or, in this case, provide alternative rationales. Score impacts possession stats. That's a pretty well-settled principle. Thus, it's relatively unremarkable that their possession improved once the Wild opened up a 2+ goal lead. But in case you want evidence that the Wild tend to tap the brakes once they take a lead:

Fenwick Close: 60.7%
Fenwick Leading 2+: 52.1%
Net Change: -8.6%

Corsi Close: 58.6%
Corsi Leading 2+: 52.3%
Net Change: -6.5%

As I said, we're an abhorrent possession team 95% of the time, so this is a little victory. But crediting the improved possession numbers to the benching of certain players and wholly omitting score effects provides a misleading conclusion.

 

[Sabretooth]

First period out shot 20-5.

2nd period we outshoot Minny 15-11

In the 3rd it was 8-8

Hardly any ice for Hodgson, Benoit and Stewart after the first. Hmmm..........

Hodgson was on the ice for 3 even shots for and 3 even shots against, and was overall a -3 corsi at even strength. Thats 3rd best on the team after stafford and stewart.

Stewart was on the ice for 3 even shots for and 2 even shots against, and was overall a -2 corsi at even stength, 2nd best on the team.

Benoit wasn't great but wasn't the worst. -4 even strength shots and -8 even strength corsi.


Girgs, ennis, and myers were -5, -6, and -7 in even strength shots, the worst 3 on the team, and -10, -12, and -18 in even strength corsi. Strachan was also -16 in even strength corsi, though was only -2 in even strength shots on net.


We were only outshot by 8 even strength. We spent 4 minutes on the penalty kill in the 1st, which probably explains the shot disparity there more than anything else. Nothing indicates that Hodgson and Stewart had anything to do with the negative shot disparity in the 1st. In fact combined they were +1 in even strength shots, and as you pointed out hardly played after the first, so they were basically +1 in a period we were outshot 20-5.

These are basic stats that take minimal effort to look up: http://nullisecund.us/nhl/game.php?id=2014020238

 

[joshjull]

I don't know why you're often so defensive when people disagree with you, or, in this case, provide alternative rationales. Score impacts possession stats. That's a pretty well-settled principle. Thus, it's relatively unremarkable that their possession improved once the Wild opened up a 2+ goal lead. But in case you want evidence that the Wild tend to tap the brakes once they take a lead:

Fenwick Close: 60.7%
Fenwick Leading 2+: 52.1%
Net Change: -8.6%

Corsi Close: 58.6%
Corsi Leading 2+: 52.3%
Net Change: -6.5%

As I said, we're an abhorrent possession team 95% of the time, so this is a little victory. But crediting the improved possession numbers to the benching of certain players and wholly omitting score effects provides a misleading conclusion.

I wasn't offended. I was debating putting after the first line of my post

And I wasn't making a grand argument with the numbers either. Just a simple, maybe sitting them wasn't such a bad thing.

 

[joshjull]

Hodgson was on the ice for 3 even shots for and 3 even shots against, and was overall a -3 corsi at even strength. Thats 3rd best on the team after stafford and stewart.

Stewart was on the ice for 3 even shots for and 2 even shots against, and was overall a -2 corsi at even stength, 2nd best on the team.

Benoit wasn't great but wasn't the worst. -4 even strength shots and -8 even strength corsi.


Girgs, ennis, and myers were -5, -6, and -7 in even strength shots, the worst 3 on the team, and -10, -12, and -18 in even strength corsi. Strachan was also -16 in even strength corsi, though was only -2 in even strength shots on net.


We were only outshot by 8 even strength. We spent 4 minutes on the penalty kill in the 1st, which probably explains the shot disparity there more than anything else. Nothing indicates that Hodgson and Stewart had anything to do with the negative shot disparity in the 1st. In fact combined they were +1 in even strength shots, and as you pointed out hardly played after the first, so they were basically +1 in a period we were outshot 20-5.

These are basic stats that take minimal effort to look up:http://nullisecund.us/nhl/game.php?id=2014020238

Save the snark. I'm well aware of the availability of advanced stats and use them frequently.

But I don't normally feel the need to do thorough research before I make an offhand post in a GDT.

I was obviously wrong in this case that they were to blame for the 20 shots against. Just assumed since they generally aren't good possession players they weren't helping the cause.

 

[Sabretooth]

Save the snark. I'm well aware of the availability of advanced stats and use them frequently.

But I don't normally feel the need to do thorough research before I make an offhand post in a GDT.

I was obviously wrong in this case that they were to blame for the 20 shots against. Just assumed since they generally aren't good possession players they weren't helping the cause.

Well this is how agendas and truisms begin and spread.

Fact is, Hodgson is 9th on the team in CF% 5 on 5 this year (a still pretty bad 38.3%) and 8th on the team in CF% 5 on 5 close. Compared to say ennis who is 15th (35.6%) and 10th, respectively. Hodgson and ennis are more or less equal 5 on 5 close. Stewart as it happens is even better, 2nd on the team 5 on 5 (39.7), and 5th 5 on 5 close. source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...aters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Benoit is horrible, but Hodgson and Stewart are not even in the same discussion. This who team is full of generally not good possession players, but hodgson and stewart and not the players deserving of being singled out for it. They're above average on the team this year.

 

[stokes84]

Too late. They've been singled out. That's why they only got 8 minutes of ice time.

 

[joshjull]

Well this is how agendas and truisms begin and spread.

You're getting a little carried away now. I'm not pushing and agenda nor does anything I post really feed one for anyone else.

And you should know by now if someone wants to grind an ax on here they are going to grind it, facts be damned.

Fact is, Hodgson is 9th on the team in CF% 5 on 5 this year (a still pretty bad 38.3%) and 8th on the team in CF% 5 on 5 close. Compared to say ennis who is 15th (35.6%) and 10th, respectively. Hodgson and ennis are more or less equal 5 on 5 close. Stewart as it happens is even better, 2nd on the team 5 on 5 (39.7), and 5th 5 on 5 close. source: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...aters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Fact is (to steal your phrase) when I say Benoit, Hodgson and Stewart aren't generally good possession players. I'm talking about their careers. Posting their garbage possession numbers from this year does nothing to dispute this and actually reinforces it.

Benoit is horrible, but Hodgson and Stewart are not even in the same discussion. This who team is full of generally not good possession players, but hodgson and stewart and not the players deserving of being singled out for it. They're above average on the team this year.

All I was trying to say is the team obviously didn't suffer from them sitting. That has now turned into this bizarre exercise where you are trying argue they aren't that bad relative to the rest of the team in possession. Which is true and is missing the point on two fronts. One being the point I was trying to make. Two being you think my frame of reference for their crappy possession play is just this season. But I blame myself for that since I derailed us into this by using shot totals to make my point.

I'll put it another way then. The team played better in the 2nd and 3rd periods with those guys sitting. Obviously the team wasn't hurt by their absence. Which was the main point I was trying to make to the poster I quoted.