Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #4

[EL Bandito]

Yeah, Zach Sanford scored 11 goals in 25 games in the AHL before the Capitals called him up. He can score.

If people are expecting him to start in the AHL, maybe... but he won't be there long because I think he'll dominate that league. I think it's basically him and Bennett competing for Berglund's open 3rd line spot. Either Sanford makes the team out of camp, or he gets called up immediately the moment Bennett injures himself and doesn't look back.

Excited to see his progress in camp as well.

I'm an even bigger fan of Barbashev. People saying he doesn't have good offensive upside weren't watching his many pro-level quality passes which showed his hands and vision. Couple that with his work ethic, physicality, determination, etc and I think we have our version of Ryan O'Reilly.

I'll be honest, I wasn't happy with Sanford as the top prospect included for Shatty, I was thinking it should've been Vrana or Bowey but after getting to watch him in person, especially when they gave him a bit of time at Center, I think I may actually like his overall upside more than I do Vrana. He's obviously the dark horse of all of their forward prospects.

 

[SirPaste]

Thompson for me

 

[EL Bandito]

I went Kostin here. We haven't had a prospect with this much talent since Tarasenko. He should've never been available at 31. I know, I know, armchair draft geek but I've been watching him since he was 16 and just like if Vladi's name was Bob Smith he would have been a top 5 pick, the same goes for Klim here....without the injury of course.

 

[Daley Tarasenkshow]

I voted Kostin, really like his upside.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I'm not as enthusiastic about Sanford - but I completely admit that it is likely because I have watched him very little. I will be keeping an eye on him, but I have about the same expectations for him as I did Jaskin two years ago. The pieces for a decent player are there, but the question is can he put it together at the higher level?

For the record, I do like Sanford more than Jaskin, and have him in our top 12? prospects. Again, I have watched and read more about Toropchenko than Sanford, and I tend to vote towards upside. Sanford's ranking could easily change after a month into the season.

 

[rumrokh]

I'm not as enthusiastic about Sanford - but I completely admit that it is likely because I have watched him very little. I will be keeping an eye on him, but I have about the same expectations for him as I did Jaskin two years ago. The pieces for a decent player are there, but the question is can he put it together at the higher level?

For the record, I do like Sanford more than Jaskin, and have him in our top 12? prospects. Again, I have watched and read more about Toropchenko than Sanford, and I tend to vote towards upside. Sanford's ranking could easily change after a month into the season.

I understand why you might have low expectations, but he's not comparable to Jaskin. Despite the difference in size, Sanford's developmental needs are closer to guys like Fabbri and Schwartz. Jaskin was filled out from the get-go, his issue is almost entirely about footspeed and not being great enough at anything else to make up for it. Sanford's speed and shot are a lot better, but he needs to work on filling out and staying on his feet in a battle. I also think Jaskin defaults to a simple game, while Sanford plays with more swagger/creativity.

 

[Oberyn]

I like Sanford's skating a lot more than Jaskin's, and his hockey IQ also seems superior as well. I'm not a huge fan of Sanford at all but I think he'll turn out better than what Jaskin is now.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Schwartz was drafted ahead of Tarasenko once upon a time.

Just saying.

Apples and Oranges. In a year i wont be shocked if Kostin wins our #1 prospect spot, but as of today there is a reason Kostin just got chosen at #31, behind 30 other prospects, including Thomas at #20. I feel like Kostin has a ton to prove (injury and otherwise) and is getting too much love too soon thats all.

That being said i hope he does turn into a beast, he's just not my pick this early.

 

[tfriede2]

Thomas.

 

[Celtic Note]

I understand why you might have low expectations, but he's not comparable to Jaskin. Despite the difference in size, Sanford's developmental needs are closer to guys like Fabbri and Schwartz. Jaskin was filled out from the get-go, his issue is almost entirely about footspeed and not being great enough at anything else to make up for it. Sanford's speed and shot are a lot better, but he needs to work on filling out and staying on his feet in a battle. I also think Jaskin defaults to a simple game, while Sanford plays with more swagger/creativity.

Jaskin certainly had creativity and swagger in the AHL. He could flat out take over games.

 

[Celtic Note]

I went Kostin here. We haven't had a prospect with this much talent since Tarasenko. He should've never been available at 31. I know, I know, armchair draft geek but I've been watching him since he was 16 and just like if Vladi's name was Bob Smith he would have been a top 5 pick, the same goes for Klim here....without the injury of course.

Fabbri didn't have as much or more talent?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I understand why you might have low expectations, but he's not comparable to Jaskin. Despite the difference in size, Sanford's developmental needs are closer to guys like Fabbri and Schwartz. Jaskin was filled out from the get-go, his issue is almost entirely about footspeed and not being great enough at anything else to make up for it. Sanford's speed and shot are a lot better, but he needs to work on filling out and staying on his feet in a battle. I also think Jaskin defaults to a simple game, while Sanford plays with more swagger/creativity.

I didn't mean to mainly compare their play styles, although I think Jaskin does have creativity and hands at the AHL, as mentioned above. Jaskin just struggles with speed - which isn't a problem for Sanford. I would love to be proven incorrect about Sanford, but in my little exposure to him I haven't found him that intriguing. More time on the Blues this year will change that one way or the other.

 

[shpongle falls]

Definitely going with Kostin for the #4 spot here.

 

[rumrokh]

Jaskin certainly had creativity and swagger in the AHL. He could flat out take over games.

I actually think that Jaskin could continue to improve and surprise his detractors, but Sanford has shown more finesse and swagger at the NHL level (to me), which matters a lot more. We'll see how Sanford develops, though.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

It took me 10 minutes to decide

Ultimately ended up going with Kyrou, but I'd be fine if this ended up a 4-way tie lol

 

[Blueston]

Thomas is the choice. Smart player, great hockey sense, expect him to take huge step this year.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Went with Schmaltz. I feel like with his NHL readiness and potential upside, he can make an impact even if he's stuck behind Petro and Parayko.

After Shattenkirk was dealt, Petro saw his TOI go up by roughly 1:30 per game. If Schmaltz can come in and play 16-17min per game, along with a bump in ice time for Parayko, that could get Petro down to 24min a night. He'd be saving over 120min of ice time over the course of the season, which would be huge come playoff time where he'll be fresher.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Thomas.

Thomas is the choice. Smart player, great hockey sense, expect him to take huge step this year.

Great job sirs, you chose correctly

Although, i love the fact that our farm is so full of talent right now that our top 8 prospects are all very close and debatable for different reasons.

The future is bright, crazy how two good Back2Back drafts and a few solid moves can change so much.

LGB

 

[EastonBlues22]

Apples and Oranges. In a year i wont be shocked if Kostin wins our #1 prospect spot, but as of today there is a reason Kostin just got chosen at #31, behind 30 other prospects, including Thomas at #20. I feel like Kostin has a ton to prove (injury and otherwise) and is getting too much love too soon thats all.

That being said i hope he does turn into a beast, he's just not my pick this early.

Prospect rankings aren't equatable to draft positions.

When teams draft, they heavily factor in a prospect's risk (whether health, size, skill, character, reluctance to leave home, etc.) when creating their draft rankings. Missing on picks (especially early picks where your chance of landing a contributor is best) has significant consequences as it hurts the team both competitively and financially. You see risky guys fall below where their upside otherwise dictates they should go every single draft.

For prospect rankings like these, none of that matters. There's zero potential repercussions for ranking a guy too high or too low, so there's no real reason to defer to the draft rankings of NHL teams that were composed by weighing upside vs risk. If you like one guy's upside better than another's, that's ample reason to rank him ahead of another prospect.

 

[bluesfan94]

Plus different people grade prospects differently in terms of what they look for. I'm trying to balance upside, floor, and proximity to the NHL. It's a tough mix.

 

[yogintheaveragebears]

klim train baby choo choo

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

klim train baby choo choo

Smarter than the average bear.

 

[Alklha]

Kyrou just ahead of Thomas for me.

I don't have Husso close because the floor is just too low and too many goalies just can't make the step up. If I have to choose Husso or any one of Kyrou, Thomas, Kostin or Thompson then it would be the skater with no hesitation.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Glad to see the overnight surge for Team Kyrou. We need to evangelize and smite the Kostinites.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Voted Kostin as he's got the highest upside and some of the risk surrounding him has been alleviated recently (shoulder should be cleared soon and he's not staying in the KHL).

That said, I think some are expecting too much from Kostin too soon. Whether it's this board or the asylum, I keep seeing folks either projecting him into this season's lineup or at least thinking he has a good shot of making the team. I'd disagree with that. While he's fairly physically developed for an 18 yr old, he's still only 18, played very little last season and won't be cleared for contact until Sept. I don't think it's remotely fair to him to expect much out of him this season, at least as far as the NHL is concerned. My hope is that he's AHL ready as not even that is a guarantee IMO.