Prospect Info: 17-18 Blues Top Prospect #3

[BlueDream]

People think this poll is over but Kostin is going to make a huge comeback when Lehterasenkshow creates 40 duplicate accounts tonight.

 

[Stealth JD]

Interesting to see how much of an after-thought Jordan Schmaltz has seemingly become. He didn't exactly light the world on fire with his NHL debut, but he's still young and has top-4 potential. Did he falter so much last year as to now be discussed as perhaps the 8-10th best prospect in the organization?

 

[kimzey59]

Interesting to see how much of an after-thought Jordan Schmaltz has seemingly become. He didn't exactly light the world on fire with his NHL debut, but he's still young and has top-4 potential. Did he falter so much last year as to now be discussed as perhaps the 8-10th best prospect in the organization?

It's not about him falling, it's about others rising. Dunn and Walman look like legit successors to Bouwmeester and Gunnarson, Schmaltz hasn't done anything wrong, but he looks to be clearly behind Petro and Parayko. That doesn't mean any of them are bad but you have two guys with clear paths to our top 4 and one who will have to fight his way in. All are quality prospects but the upside of the two lefties has people reasonably excited.

 

[Klank Loves You]

Husso next for me.

 

[medkit]

Walman. Next.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Walman (who I think should have been higher than Barbashev due to upside potential). I'd place Kostin next, before Husso, as goalies have potential for lots of things preventing them from becoming consistent at the top level (many are mental).

Robb says it best - and you know I love me some Husso. I drafted him in NHL '14 and thought he was a randomly generated guy. He was a steal and became an elite 93 OVR goalie. Imagine my shock on draft day when we called his name.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

People think this poll is over but Kostin is going to make a huge comeback when Lehterasenkshow creates 40 duplicate accounts tonight.

Haha. I only thought Kostin was #3 after Dunn and Walman. Now I'll probably have to vote for him as #4. I don't even think that Kostin is a super-star - just that he has all the skill in the world and is better than a lack-luster Barbashev, a good but not great Thompson, and is less of a long-hot than Kyrou due to being an all-or-nothing candidate.

Husso is damn good though.

 

[Evocable Manager]

How is Barbashev lackluster?
How is Kyrou a long shot?

 

[2 Minute Minor]

For everyone pushing Husso - I'm not against it, but I think the great majority of fans, even ones who have played hockey at a decent level, are still garbage at calling goalie development. Hell, the professionals are notably more spotty at it than they are with skaters. I think Husso eventually nabs a respectable spot on the list, but until we've seen him in the NHL or he comically dominates the AHL, you can't blame anybody for voting for skaters.

It's not that long ago Binnington was the better prospect than Allen, according to HF. I'm blanking on the staff writer's name. And I think many here were looking forward to Binnington, too. Now he's become an afterthought.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Kyrou's an all skill and speed player. He's not expected to be good defensively, and he's pretty much a boom or bust top 6 or nothing player. Kostin could make his way as a grinder if his hands fell off and he blew out both knees.

Barbashev is average to above average at most skills, but doesn't have the upside that someone like Kostin, Kyrou, or even Thompson have, imo. I wasn't trying to start an argument.

 

[simon IC]

Walman. Again. (Three times lucky?)

 

[Evocable Manager]

Except Kyrou has skill and speed. Most importantly, he has smarts. At worst he becomes a depth scorer, but he's absolutely electrifying on the ice. One could argue he's better than Kostin and it wouldn't be illogical in any sense.

Barbashev is a high IQ player who has more skill than you seem to be willing to admit.




I remember one goal where he broke a players ankles but I can't find it. Either way, he has skill and talent. Certainly enough to be a strong player.

The great think about a sport like hockey is you don't necessarily need a lot of skill to be effective, as long as your smart. One example, Joe Pavelski. Not that he lacks skill, but he isn't blowing anyone away with any talent he possess' except maybe his hand eye.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

Kyrou was picked 4 spots after Kostin in a pretty good draft class, and all he did since then is lead his team in goals, and yet still average an assist a game in the CHL. It's not a great team, but then you can take that and interpret it a couple ways when he is assisting 64 times in 66 games. He didn't have a Thompson to tee up like he did last week.

He's not a sure thing, but I don't think of him as a complete lotto ticket either. He moved the needle last year in a big way.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

He's not a lotto ticket. He is, imo, more of a long-shot than Kostin.

Vince Dunn is more of a long-shot than Colton Parayko.

 

[bluesfan94]

Well yeah, Parayko is in the league.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I'm inclined to say that I'm just not a very articulate writer, but I'm going to make an honorable mention to lack of reading comprehension. I'm tired of repeating and rephrasing what I've already posted in order to point out what is already clearly there, but I'm a glutton for punishment.

People generally understand the whole "He's only a 2C because he's behind Crosby" argument. Kyrou is only more of a "long-shot" because Kostin is less of one. 4 is not a big number, but it is bigger than 3. Just as (an extreme example) Parayko is less of a long-shot than Vince Dunn - that doesn't mean Vince Dunn is accurately described out of that context as a long-shot.


Kyrou was never considered to be a top 10 pick - regardless of how weak or strong the draft class was. Kostin has a more well-rounded skill-set, and, imo, that makes him less likely to bust than someone like Kyrou - whom-I-think-will-not-actually-bust-ok-thanks.

Barb is a high floor, low ceiling type of player to me - which makes him lack-luster IN COMPARISON to someone like Kyrou or Kostin. He's not a lack-luster player - just in the context of comparing him to someone, imo, that is more dynamic and has a higher ceiling.

Included for reference:

Honestly I blame me for turning on the computer and clicking "Firefox". Something something something, you're gonna have a bad time.

 

[izzy]

walman

 

[MissouriMook]

Interesting to see how much of an after-thought Jordan Schmaltz has seemingly become. He didn't exactly light the world on fire with his NHL debut, but he's still young and has top-4 potential. Did he falter so much last year as to now be discussed as perhaps the 8-10th best prospect in the organization?

Part of the uphill battle Schmaltz is fighting has nothing to do with the player himself. We as fans look at guys like Dunn and Walman and see more opportunity for them to play higher up in the lineup, and that situation creeps into evaluations like this. One of them will likely be a first pairing guy, even if by default, once J-Bo moves on or down in the lineup. With Schmaltz, he could be a better player than either Dunn or Walman and still be blocked to a third pairing role with Petro and Parayko in front of him, so naturally we rate him as a lesser prospect because his potential impact on the team is muted by the players ahead of him.

 

[Itsnotatrap]

I'm inclined to say that I'm just not a very articulate writer, but I'm going to make an honorable mention to lack of reading comprehension. I'm tired of repeating and rephrasing what I've already posted in order to point out what is already clearly there, but I'm a glutton for punishment.

People generally understand the whole "He's only a 2C because he's behind Crosby" argument. Kyrou is only more of a "long-shot" because Kostin is less of one. 4 is not a big number, but it is bigger than 3. Just as (an extreme example) Parayko is less of a long-shot than Vince Dunn - that doesn't mean Vince Dunn is accurately described out of that context as a long-shot.


Kyrou was never considered to be a top 10 pick - regardless of how weak or strong the draft class was. Kostin has a more well-rounded skill-set, and, imo, that makes him less likely to bust than someone like Kyrou - whom-I-think-will-not-actually-bust-ok-thanks.

Barb is a high floor, low ceiling type of player to me - which makes him lack-luster IN COMPARISON to someone like Kyrou or Kostin. He's not a lack-luster player - just in the context of comparing him to someone, imo, that is more dynamic and has a higher ceiling.

Included for reference:

Honestly I blame me for turning on the computer and clicking "Firefox". Something something something, you're gonna have a bad time.

I take your points, and Kostin is not a bad pick, I'm trying to make an affirmative case for Kyrou and using the very close comparison of draft position to Kostin as a starting point.

Loosely related to all this: if you look and search for prospect information, the overwhelming majority of content is about draft rankings. That's the one time when demand from NHL fans is more of universal interest. Once the draft ends prospect coverage becomes more provincial and fragmented. Fans tend to lock in on their own, so there isn't as much incentive to do write ups and status checks outside of a few events like World Juniors and Memorial Cup. It's a system that allows players to slip under the radar a little longer than, say, a baseball prospect may.

But it is a very fluid situation post draft. Kyrou has had a chance to improve his standing in the last year, and IMO he has. I feel much more comfortable that he can stir the drink and play off some teammates with finishing ability quite well. He does still have work to do, and unfortunately is a bit boxed in this year with CHL negotiated rules. He'd really benefit from AHL time now, affiliate issues aside, to learn how his game would need to adapt outside a more firewagon style game, but there is reasonable prospect of a top 6 player.

 

[DatDude44]

I feel like alot of people are voting more on how close to NHL ready these guys are and then based on potential after that. Quite honestly, potential wise, I believe klim Kostin has by far the highest ceiling out of our entire prospect board. So based on that I go Klim.

If I take into account "closeness" to NHL readiness combined with a fairly high ceiling, I go walman. In the limited viewings I've had of walman, I see a lot of gostisbehere in his game

 

[Majorityof1]

Part of the uphill battle Schmaltz is fighting has nothing to do with the player himself. We as fans look at guys like Dunn and Walman and see more opportunity for them to play higher up in the lineup, and that situation creeps into evaluations like this. One of them will likely be a first pairing guy, even if by default, once J-Bo moves on or down in the lineup. With Schmaltz, he could be a better player than either Dunn or Walman and still be blocked to a third pairing role with Petro and Parayko in front of him, so naturally we rate him as a lesser prospect because his potential impact on the team is muted by the players ahead of him.

I think people are overanalyzing it. Dunn had a better first AHL year than Schmaltz did at an earlier age. 4 years of college is supposed to prepare you for pros, but Schmaltz needed a full year + of AHL action before he was ready. At 24 years old, we still don't know if he will be ready for full-time action or if he will be a spot fill-in. He no longer has to beat out the three headed RHD monster of Pie, PArayko, Shatty. He only has to beat Gunnarson/Bortuzzo. And its questionable if he can at 24. Most of us gave up on Rattie and Jaskin at 22/23.

Dunn had a more impressive first AHL season at 20 years old. He was ninth among all AHL D in scoring. 1st in ppg (more than 10 games) amongst all rookie D. And he dropped a goon backstage WWE style in a youtube clip. That is why he is more highly regarded.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I've always rated prospects based on a combo of their top end potential and their likelihood of reaching it. "Closeness to the NHL" is an aspect of their likelihood of reaching their potential IMO. There are a lot of sub-factors to consider but that's how I look at things. Which guy do I currently value the most?

Absolutely agreed that Sundqvist should be in the polls as he's a prospect with the same general age/experience as Lindbohm and Schmaltz.

 

[Novacain]

Walkman. And I move on to Number 4, cause this one is over.

The Walkman thing was an autocorrect, but I'm gonna stick with it.

 

[Splatter]

I've always rated prospects based on a combo of their top end potential and their likelihood of reaching it. "Closeness to the NHL" is an aspect of their likelihood of reaching their potential IMO. There are a lot of sub-factors to consider but that's how I look at things. Which guy do I currently value the most?

Absolutely agreed that Sundqvist should be in the polls as he's a prospect with the same general age/experience as Lindbohm and Schmaltz.

Speaking of which... Lindbohm should added too.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Speaking of which... Lindbohm should added too.

Agreed. I don't have Lindbohm very high on my list but certainly higher than a couple of other guys already listed as poll options.