Prospect Info: //#13// HFStars 2014 Top-20

[Primetimey*]

Not sure why it would be. Both have similar potential, while one is much further along in his development. Pretty clear win for McKenzie there.

A 20 point college player versus a 70 point OHL player.. not even close.

 

[glovesave_35]

A 20 point college player versus a 70 point OHL player.. not even close.

That 20 point college player scored 65 in the AHL. Bringing up his college numbers at this point and comparing him to a 19 year old is pointless to me.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

That 20 point college player scored 65 in the AHL. Bringing up his college numbers at this point and comparing him to a 19 year old is pointless to me.

Exactly. Both were roughly expected to be bottom six type players, while one (albeit at 24) is proving himself in the AHL. McKenzie is better right now just for being further along in his development cycle (closer to the NHL).

 

[Satan]

A 20 point college player versus a 70 point OHL player.. not even close.

When did Elie score 70 in the OHL?

 

[glovesave_35]

Maybe it's not fair, but over the years I've become a little jaded by junior scoring. When I was really getting into the Stars, hockey, and following prospects closely I remember a guy named David Bararuk. 62 points in his draft year, 93 in his post draft year...last played hockey in Finland in 06-07 and played all of 6 games.

I'm not saying anything about any of our prospects in particular, but the list of guys who never even sniffed the NHL and who put up solid numbers in juniors is pretty long.

 

[BigG44]

AHL production is important, but there is a long list of big time AHL scorers who never make the NHL in any meaningful way or only as Bottom 6 or depth.

McKenzie's shot isn't close to NHL Top 6 caliber, and I don't think he's really even in Roussel or Garbutt's league yet.

Like it or not, AHL production is better but not a perfect indicator of NHL success. Ignoring who is line mates were as if that is irrelevant, by some not all, is not being honest either.

Like I said, there is a place in the NHL for grinders who score dirty goals, but he's not a guy even now who has shown he could be more.

Those going McKenzie over Stransky are classic stat watching. Development age matters and a 22 year old college player with a developed two-way game should step into the AHL and find immediate success. He's been playing against bigger and older players most of his career.

A 20 year old CHL player nearly always has some catching up to do. Neal, Ritchie, and Stransky all had similar slow starts to their AHL career while then showing major improvement throughout the year.

Stransky and Ritchie did that on a deep, championship team, and they eventually played ahead of some AHL vets. I know I switched gears a bit from Elie, but I think it'd be a bigger mistake for Stransky not to go next. He actually made significant improvements to himself and his game. He's a better player than he was at the beginning of the year, and the areas he improved significantly impact his ability to make the NHL. McKenzie just proved to me what I already thought. He's probably going to be an entertaining 3rd or 4th liner. I don't think his skating or anything got noticeably better, and I can't imagine anyone being overly impressed with his offense. He's not a guy that beats a goalie very often. He's opportunistic and does the dirt work, and that's still extremely valuable.

 

[glovesave_35]

AHL production is important, but there is a long list of big time AHL scorers who never make the NHL in any meaningful way or only as Bottom 6 or depth.

Of course there are. The list of PPG+ players in junior who never even sniff the NHL is still way longer, which was my only point.

I'm not throwing his linemates out the window, but he did still score the goals and the points. It is what it is.

 

[Satan]

Of course there are. The list of PPG+ players in junior who never even sniff the NHL is still way longer, which was my only point.

Came to post this.

 

[BigG44]

Of course there are. The list of PPG+ players in junior who never even sniff the NHL is still way longer, which was my only point.

I'm not throwing his linemates out the window, but he did still score the goals and the points. It is what it is.

I knew you weren't but some have. That's why I made sure to indicate it wasn't a broad statement.

Mike Mancari has scored 20+ goals and 50+ points 7 of 9 seasons in the AHL. He scored those points too. He even had a 78 point year and several years with 30 goals.

Travis Morin has 296 points in 350 games. Like I said ... talking about AHL stats doesn't give you the best picture of a player. T get your point about junior vs. AHL, but my point is that doesn't mean AHL is the end all be all.

Let's go this route ... is there anything incorrect about this: He's a physical player, good forechecker, willing fighter, solid two-way base thanks to 4 years with Miami, and his hands are a bit below average for an NHLer. He looks like a sure thing NHLer in a Bottom 6th role, and he might even be a bit above average in that respect.

NHL readiness and the chance of that player making it to the NHL doesn't matter to me when we're talking prospects. It does to other people which is fine, but prospects are about the future not necessarily next season or the immediate one after that. These aren't the Dallas Stars' Player Power Rankings or depth chart rankings, IMO.

That's the one issue with this poll is there's no consensus on how to approach the rankings, but that's not a huge problem at the end of the day. It's going to cause these types of disagreements about players though. I really enjoy watching McKenzie, but I'm not going to look at him as a guy who has major potential on the Stars roster in the future. He's solid depth unless at 23 years old he has a shot makeover which is unlikely but not impossible.

Plus he really has zero shot IMO of unseating Benn, Hemsky, Nichushkin, or Ritchie in a Top 6 role long term. By the time Hemsky is potentially gone, I have no faith that's he's holding back guys like Dickinson, Shore, Pollock, etc.

 

[glovesave_35]

Let's go this route ... is there anything incorrect about this: He's a physical player, good forechecker, willing fighter, solid two-way base thanks to 4 years with Miami, and his hands are a bit below average for an NHLer. He looks like a sure thing NHLer in a Bottom 6th role, and he might even be a bit above average in that respect.

I think that is pretty bang on.

NHL readiness and the chance of that player making it to the NHL doesn't matter to me when we're talking prospects. It does to other people which is fine, but prospects are about the future not necessarily next season or the immediate one after that. These aren't the Dallas Stars' Player Power Rankings or depth chart rankings, IMO.

And here is where you and I disagree. For me it's not even about "NHL readiness", which implies being on a range of time to NHL impact. It's about how sure can I be that the player will have any NHL impact and balancing that against top end potential of him and other players.

To me, these polls are a mix of potential ceiling and assuredness of NHL career. If we're really voting on top end potential at the exclusion of other factors Honka should be #1 for sure. He's not because we have other players who also have high ceilings and who we are more sure will make an impact in the NHL.

Plus he really has zero shot IMO of unseating Benn, Hemsky, Nichushkin, or Ritchie in a Top 6 role long term. By the time Hemsky is potentially gone, I have no faith that's he's holding back guys like Dickinson, Shore, Pollock, etc.

I thought you were the guy who has been throwing the old "top 6" phrasing out the window with how Ruff manages ice time and roles.

 

[Rune Forumwalker]

I thought you were the guy who has been throwing the old "top 6" phrasing out the window with how Ruff manages ice time and roles.

I think it's less throwing top 6 out the window than worrying about a player on the 4th line getting less than 10 (or around 5min or less) a game.

 

[BigG44]

I thought you were the guy who has been throwing the old "top 6" phrasing out the window with how Ruff manages ice time and roles.

I never once said that IMO. Rune is correct.

Every Dallas regular plays significant minutes meaning every guy is important. There are still obvious Top 6 and Bottom 6 roles at this point. I hope they eventually can go 3 scoring lines deep, but that still doesn't include McKenzie for me as a likely offensive player.

 

[Dr GLU]

IMO, Elie has way better puck skills than McKenzie, is a slightly better skater, has better vision, and has a pro caliber shot. The only thing I can see McKenzie doing better than Elie is fighting and hitting. He's more advanced in his defensive coverage, but that's expected given their ages.