Proposal: 10th Overall + Aberg for Gallagher

[ChaoticOrange]

No, but you also didn't actually support your opinion beyond making the assumption that College route means a much longer wait time. You kind of just presented opinions as fact.

Gallagher's produced goals, primary points and points at higher rate than RNH over the last 3 years. He's a better Corsi player. He creates and is involved in more scoring chances. Gallagher's a decent two way player. And its not like he's been playing with great teammates. Plus Gallagher has a much better contract.

Yamamoto is a marginally better prospect. Both he and Poehling were drafted in the 20's this past draft. Both have had good draft +1 seasons. Neither out-shown the other when they both played at the WJC on the same team.

Corsi nerds think Cody Franson is an all star too. Forgive me if I don’t put a lot of stock in that.

College players usually take longer and I haven’t seen anything indicating he might leave early.

I also don’t love him as a prospect, as I think he’s fairly limited offensively. That’s just personal preference tho.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Ya i remember a lot of Yak was this and Hall would get us that and Eberle was worth that.Do i need to go on. That was some reality.

Sure, maybe mix in the ‘Galchenyuk is a surefire 40 goal scorer and #1C’ stuff. Those were a riot.

Maybe mix in some of the old posts about McCarron’s upside or how Fucale ++ could get back half of the players in the league.

And if you think that Hall not bringing back a mint is anything other than Chiarelli being stupid then I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

The last two are certainly appealing but not at the expense of Gallagher.



Poehling was the best forward on the best team in the NCAA this year. I think he could be ready after one more year.

RNH is certainly not better than Gallagher. RNH has below average underlying stats even relative to the poor teams he has been on, and he scores more like a 2nd liner at 5 on 5 to boot. Gallagher has elite underlying stats and scores at the rate of an average first liner over a large sample.

Habs fans - loving advanced stats until they make their player look bad since forever.

My left nut Poehling was St. Cloud’s best player. He got outscored - significantly - by an undrafted 20 year old and LA’s 5th rounder.

Well if you’re a big fan of 5 on 5 scoring rates and want to use that to the exclusion of everything else including linemates and situational use, I’m certain that Dustin Brown for Gallagher is right up your alley. After all Brown had 45 even strength points last year, Gallagher only had 36!

 

[Captain Mountain]

Corsi nerds think Cody Franson is an all star too. Forgive me if I don’t put a lot of stock in that.

College players usually take longer and I haven’t seen anything indicating he might leave early.

I also don’t love him as a prospect, as I think he’s fairly limited offensively. That’s just personal preference tho.

1) Only one stat I mentioned was Corsi.

2) Corsi suggests Franson is underrated, not that he's an all-star.

3) You think Poehling is going to stay until he graduates? Because by all accounts he'll be there for one more season and then sign.

4) That's fine that you don't love Poehling as a prospect. I'm pretty concerned with Yamamoto's ability to elevate against tougher and stronger competition. That's preference though, not value.

 

[Captain97]

Value isn't bad but I doubt the habs move Gally they are likely trying to sign jt and be competitive.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Habs fans - loving advanced stats until they make their player look bad since forever.

My left nut Poehling was St. Cloud’s best player. He got outscored - significantly - by an undrafted 20 year old and LA’s 5th rounder.

Well if you’re a big fan of 5 on 5 scoring rates and want to use that to the exclusion of everything else including linemates and situational use, I’m certain that Dustin Brown for Gallagher is right up your alley. After all Brown had 45 even strength points last year, Gallagher only had 36!

Oh, generalizations and strawmen! Plus a healthy dose of just reading boxcar stats!

 

[yababy]

Come on, that's a ridiculous way to evaluate players considering their salary. Gallagher is a very useful player, Åberg not so much. I would much rather pay a couple of millions for a player who actually contributes than next to nothing to a player who does next to nothing.

Aberg and Puljujarvi are the verge of becoming useful. Why swap these young cheap players for salaries we can't afford?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

1) Only one stat I mentioned was Corsi.

2) Corsi suggests Franson is underrated, not that he's an all-star.

3) You think Poehling is going to stay until he graduates? Because by all accounts he'll be there for one more season and then sign.

4) That's fine that you don't love Poehling as a prospect. I'm pretty concerned with Yamamoto's ability to elevate against tougher and stronger competition. That's preference though, not value.

And Corsi is looked at by and large by serious hockey people as nearly worthless. Dallas Eakins loved him some Corsi, coached for Corsi, bragged about increasing the Oilers Corsi rating, and he might be the worst coach in the history of the NHL.

Even suggesting Franson is underrated is enough. He can’t even hack it as a bottom pairing guy because shot generation is not the be-all end-all of hockey, no matter how much people love to use it when it suits their argument.

I haven’t seen anything indicating as much. If you have I’d love to see it.

Preferences are fine - I don’t know if Poehling becomes anything more than a good third liner, as like I said I find him offensively limited.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Oh, generalizations and strawmen! Plus a healthy dose of just reading boxcar stats!

Statement:

‘Gallagher is a better player than RNH because of a couple cherry picked stats like 5 on 5 scoring!’

Rebuttal:

‘X player generally accepted as trash had 20% more 5 on 5 points than Gallagher did, is HE better?’

Or would you like me to pick and choose a couple stats that support my argument and ignore everything else?

The fact is over their careers RNH has been the more productive and useful player. Gallagher, after a horrible 16-17, has an excellent 17-18.

Habs fans like yourself prefer to only look at the most recent results and sweep a career worth of ‘good 2nd liner’ results under the carpet. You can’t look at one season exclusively and ignore everything else, on top of ignoring positional value and situational usage.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Habs fans - loving advanced stats until they make their player look bad since forever.

My left nut Poehling was St. Cloud’s best player. He got outscored - significantly - by an undrafted 20 year old and LA’s 5th rounder.

Well if you’re a big fan of 5 on 5 scoring rates and want to use that to the exclusion of everything else including linemates and situational use, I’m certain that Dustin Brown for Gallagher is right up your alley. After all Brown had 45 even strength points last year, Gallagher only had 36!

Which Habs player with bad advanced stats have I defended? Please enlighten me.

Poehling's transition stats blow all of his teammates out of the water and his chance creation numbers are only matched by Eyssimont. Screams best forward to me.

ES is not the same as 5 on 5, and as I clearly and explicitly said, this is not a one year phenomenon of first line production for Gallagher. I don't see any year in which Brown scored anywhere close top 45 5 on 5 points. Not sure what you're looking at. From what I can see, Gallagher had 33 5 on 5 points to Brown's 32 in fewer minutes this year. And it wasn't a one year phenomenon.

Statement:

‘Gallagher is a better player than RNH because of a couple cherry picked stats like 5 on 5 scoring!’

Rebuttal:

‘X player generally accepted as trash had 20% more 5 on 5 points than Gallagher did, is HE better?’

Or would you like me to pick and choose a couple stats that support my argument and ignore everything else?

The fact is over their careers RNH has been the more productive and useful player. Gallagher, after a horrible 16-17, has an excellent 17-18.

Habs fans like yourself prefer to only look at the most recent results and sweep a career worth of ‘good 2nd liner’ results under the carpet. You can’t look at one season exclusively and ignore everything else, on top of ignoring positional value and situational usage.

He had a career of decent first liner with no power play usage results though...

Gallagher has scored more primary points per minute in every single season the past 4 years.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Which Habs player with bad advanced stats have I defended? Please enlighten me.

Poehling's transition stats blow all of his teammates out of the water and his chance creation numbers are only matched by Eyssimont. Screams best forward to me.

ES is not the same as 5 on 5, and as I clearly and explicitly said, this is not a one year phenomenon of first line production for Gallagher. I don't see any year in which Brown scored anywhere close top 45 5 on 5 points. Not sure what you're looking at. From what I can see, Gallagher had 33 5 on 5 points to Brown's 32 in fewer minutes this year. And it wasn't a one year phenomenon.



He had a career of decent first liner with no power play usage results though...

So your already incredibly narrow stat is being further narrowed by eliminating 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 stats? Seems legit, why not make your argument as narrow as possible!

Transition stats and chance creation numbers? How deep into a spreadsheet did you have to get to find those gems?

I’m seeing a running theme with your posts - wade through stats page after stats page until you stumble across a specific stat that makes a Hab player or prospect look elite then trumpet it to the world. We have a poster like that too - Oilerbear. He once found a stat that made Martin Marincin look like an elite shutdown defenceman - box limitation or something ridiculous.

Point is if your confirmation bias is strong enough you can make stats - particularly obscure ones - say anything you want.

 

[theghost1]

Brendan Gallagher
2019 3rd round pick (MTL)



10th overall
Pontus Aberg

Who adds?

try Yamamoto and 2 first round picks.

 

[Deficient Mode]

So your already incredibly narrow stat is being further narrowed by eliminating 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 stats? Seems legit, why not make your argument as narrow as possible!

Transition stats and chance creation numbers? How deep into a spreadsheet did you have to get to find those gems?

I’m seeing a running theme with your posts - wade through stats page after stats page until you stumble across a specific stat that makes a Hab player or prospect look elite then trumpet it to the world. We have a poster like that too - Oilerbear. He once found a stat that made Martin Marincin look like an elite shutdown defenceman - box limitation or something ridiculous.

Point is if your confirmation bias is strong enough you can make stats - particularly obscure ones - say anything you want.

Judges a player he watched 0 times this year by points and whines that someone else is too fixated on spreadsheets and microstats. Sounds about right.

Pretty obvious reason to judge players by 5 on 5 scoring instead of by any other situation.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Judges a player he watched 0 times this year by points and whines that someone else is too fixated on spreadsheets and microstats. Sounds about right.

Pretty obvious reason to judge players by 5 on 5 scoring instead of by any other situation.

You’re assuming I didn’t watch Poehling at all - I did catch a few games. Like I said, his offensive upside concerns me. Have YOU watched him? Or are you getting all your data from spreadsheets?

Yamamoto’s NHLE was about 35 points this year if I remember right. Again going purely by memory Poehling clocks in at roughly 21-22. Rob Vollman has done some excellent work in figuring out the nhl equivalency of prospects across different leagues.

Or you could look at a player as a whole. Y’know, in all the situations he plays in? Do you account for the extra minutes RNH plays on the PK and how they might be tiring him out?

 

[Captain Mountain]

Statement:

‘Gallagher is a better player than RNH because of a couple cherry picked stats like 5 on 5 scoring!’

Rebuttal:

‘X player generally accepted as trash had 20% more 5 on 5 points than Gallagher did, is HE better?’

Or would you like me to pick and choose a couple stats that support my argument and ignore everything else?

The fact is over their careers RNH has been the more productive and useful player. Gallagher, after a horrible 16-17, has an excellent 17-18.

Habs fans like yourself prefer to only look at the most recent results and sweep a career worth of ‘good 2nd liner’ results under the carpet. You can’t look at one season exclusively and ignore everything else, on top of ignoring positional value and situational usage.

I'm not using single year samples.

You're the one that used 5 on 5 scoring. Gallagher scored at a higher rate, produced more scoring chances and possession individually, and had better on ice stats over the last 6 years than RNH in at 5 on 5 and in all situations. I literally can't go further back then that because Gallagher wasn't in the NHL before then. And I haven't even touched contracts or intangibles.

Pointing out Gallagher's horrible 16-17 is also really weird, since RNH had a worse 16-17.

I'd honestly wish you'd actually do more to support your argument more than deflecting with strawman arguments and just stating and restating he was better.

And the fact that you think me thinking that Gallagher is better than RNH is some sort of knock on RNH is kind of weird.

 

[Deficient Mode]

You’re assuming I didn’t watch Poehling at all - I did catch a few games. Like I said, his offensive upside concerns me. Have YOU watched him? Or are you getting all your data from spreadsheets?

Yamamoto’s NHLE was about 35 points this year if I remember right. Again going purely by memory Poehling clocks in at roughly 21-22. Rob Vollman has done some excellent work in figuring out the nhl equivalency of prospects across different leagues.

Or you could look at a player as a whole. Y’know, in all the situations he plays in? Do you account for the extra minutes RNH plays on the PK and how they might be tiring him out?

Wow spreadsheet nerd much?

I think Yamamoto is a better prospect than Poehling. Never said otherwise. I think Poehling will end up as a 2nd line center. Nuge is demonstrably not the answer to Habs' 1st line center problem though. There is no need to resort to translation factors when there is a long sample size of him not being a 1C at 5 on 5.

I don't consider PK TOI to be a good explanation for that subpar scoring, either. That hasn't stopped the elite forwards like Marchand or Wheeler who play on the PK from having far higher 5 on 5 scoring rates than RNH.

 

[Hostile Offer]

Aberg and Puljujarvi are the verge of becoming useful. Why swap these young cheap players for salaries we can't afford?

And now you're comparing Åberg to Puljujärvi... Seriously, what do you see in this guy? I see a fringe NHLer who can step in every now and then.

 

[Scintillating10]

Brendan Gallagher
2019 3rd round pick (MTL)



10th overall
Pontus Aberg

Who adds?

No way Montreal gives up both those assets

 

[sansabri]

how about if he scores more goals relative to his salary than Gallagher in 2018-19?
That means for every 30 goals for Gallagher, Aberg scores 5.
I'd be willing to bet Aberg outproduces Gallagher relative to salary by more than 200%

So Gallagher is more valuable than McDavid...

 

[TFHockey]

I kind of have to defend Chaotic Orange here... I really see RNH was the superior player to Gallagher. He plays a much more difficult position, scores about the same (Some years more than Gallagher, some less) and has demonstrated the ability to step into the top line and produce.

I hope Hab fans don't think I am bashing Gallagher, I've proposed multiple trades to acquire him. The price is usually too high because Montreal fans + management really value him.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Seems pretty fair IMO

 

[branch]

Montreal takes this and runs

 

[BLNY]

Brendan just scored 31 goals in the dumpster fire that was 2017-18. He did it playing with Plekanec for a significant chunk of the year and Tomas is where offense goes to die now. He's on a sweetheart of a deal for 3 more seasons. He'd absolutely clean up playing with either McDavid or Draisaitl. He's also a good bet to be the next captain.

Aberg is a year younger and not even remotely the player. I wouldn't trade our third for him. 10th overall in 2018 for Gallagher? No thanks. I'll keep Brendan.

 

[BLNY]

Montreal takes this and runs

I really don't think they do.

 

[TT1]

nope, untouchable

and yet another Gallagher to Edmonton proposal