#1 Defensemen and their Impact (based on Goals)

[HarrisonFord]

I thought it might be interesting to look at the #1D on each team and their impacts on GA/60 and GF/60. I thought one of the easier ways would be to look at their With you and without you stats compared to the team's #1G. Here's what I found.

Player | GFW60 | GFWO60 | GAW60 | GAWO60 | NET60
H. Lindholm | 0.99 | 2.05 | 1.33 | 2.56 | -1.06- (-1.23) = 0.17
OEL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A
Z. Chara | 2.53 | 1.93 | 2.44 | 2.20 | 0.61 - 0.24 = 0.37
R. Ristolainen | 2.15 | 1.96 | 2.38 | 2.04 | 0.19 - 0.34 = -0.15
M. Giordano | 2.44 | 1.96 | 3.12 | 1.96 | 0.48 - 1.16 = -0.68
J. Faulk | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.60 | 1.70 | 0.38 - 0.90 = -0.52
D. Keith | 2.15 | 2.02 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 0.13 - 0.08 = 0.05
E. Johnson | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.86 | 2.41 | -0.48 - (-0.55) = 0.07
J. Johnson | 1.15 | 2.85 | 2.30 | 2.52 | -1.70 - (-0.22) = -1.48
J. Klingberg | 2.70 | 2.45 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 0.25 - (-0.08) = 0.33
N. Kronwall | 1.31 | 2.16 | 1.57 | 1.52 | -0.85 - 0.05 = -0.90
O. Sekera | 1.71 | 1.98 | 2.81 | 2.39 | -0.27 - 0.42 = -0.69
A. Ekblad | 2.51 | 2.03 | 1.30 | 2.03 | 0.48 - (-0.73) = 1.21
D. Doughty | 2.23 | 2.12 | 1.60 | 2.02 | 0.11 - (-0.42) = 0.53
R. Suter | 2.17 | 1.89 | 1.73 | 1.89 | 0.28 - (-0.16) = 0.44
PK Subban | 3.01 | 1.57 | 1.97 | 2.29 | 1.44 - (-0.32) = 1.76
S. Weber | 1.85 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 1.82 | -0.25 - 0.28 = -0.53
A. Greene | 1.33 | 1.83 | 1.25 | 1.78 | -0.50 - (-0.53) = 0.03
N. Leddy | 1.39 | 2.07 | 2.41 | 1.92 | -0.68 - 0.49 = -1.17
R. McDonagh | 2.79 | 2.32 | 2.26 | 1.62 | 0.47 - 0.64 = -0.17
E. Karlsson | 2.86 | 1.92 | 2.93 | 2.03 | 0.94 - 0.90 = 0.04
M. Del Zotto | 0.73 | 2.27 | 1.95 | 1.77 | -1.54 - 0.18 = -1.72
K. Letang | 1.84 | 2.33 | 2.71 | 1.49 | -0.49 - 1.22 = -1.71
B. Burns | 1.79 | 2.64 | 2.03 | 1.95 | -0.85 - 0.08 = -0.93
A. Pietrangelo | 1.27 | 2.26 | 1.76 | 2.06 | -0.99 - (-0.30) = -0.69
V. Hedman | 2.62 | 1.62 | 1.71 | 1.78 | 1.0 - (-0.07) = 1.07
M. Rielly | 2.25 | 1.35 | 2.25 | 1.35 | 0.9 - 0.9 = 0.0
A. Edler | 2.15 | 1.96 | 1.94 | 2.20 | 0.19 - 0.26 = -0.07
K. Alzner | 2.04 | 2.90 | 1.50 | 1.90 | -0.86 - (-0.40) = -0.46
D. Byfuglien | 2.80 | 1.56 | 1.33 | 1.56 | 1.24 - (-0.23) = 1.47

*I omitted OEL because the goalie splits make it too tough to be accurate with

I split the defensemen into 4 categories

1. Offensive defensemen (Positive offensive impact, negative defensive impact): Chara, Ristolainen, Giordano, Keith, Faulk, McDonagh, Karlsson, Rielly, Edler

2. Defensive defensemen (Negative offensive impact, positive defensive impact): Lindholm, Johnson, Johnson, Greene, Pietrangelo, Alzner

3. Bad impact defensemen (Negative offensive impact, negative defensive impact): Kronwall, Sekera, Weber, Leddy, Del Zotto, Letang, Burns

4. Great impact defensemen (Positive offensive impact, positive defensive impact): Klingberg, Ekblad, Doughty, Suter, Subban, Hedman, Byfuglien

The top 10 offensive impact defensemen:

1. PK Subban
2. Dustin Byfuglien
3. Victor Hedman
4. Erik Karlsson
5. Morgan Rielly
6. Zdeno Chara
7a. Mark Giordano
7b. Aaron Ekblad
9. Ryan McDonagh
10. Justin Faulk

The top 10 defensive impact defensemen:

1. Lindholm
2. Ekblad
3. E. Johnson
4. Greene
5. Doughty
6. Alzner
7. Subban
8. Pietrangelo
9. Byfuglien
10. J. Johnson

The top 10 worst offensive impacts:

1. J. Johnson
2. Del Zotto
3. Lindholm
4. Pietrangelo
5. Alzner
6. Kronwall
7. Burns
8. Leddy
9. Greene
10. Letang

Top 10 worst defensive impacts:

1. Letang
2. Giordano
3. Karlsson
4. Faulk
5. Rielly
6. McDonagh
7. Leddy
8. Sekera
9. Ristolainen
10. Weber

Top 10 best total impacts:

1. Subban
2. Byfuglien
3. Ekblad
4. Hedman
5. Doughty
6. Suter
7. Chara
8. Klingberg
9. Lindholm
10. Keith

Top 10 worst impacts:

1. Del Zotto
2. Letang
3. J. Johnson
4. Leddy
5. Burns
6. Kronwall
7. Sekera
8. Pietrangelo
9. Giordano
10. Lindholm

Click to read more...

 

[NyQuil]

Top 10 worst impacts:

1. Del Zotto
2. Letang
3. J. Johnson
4. Leddy
5. Burns
6. Kronwall
7. Sekera
8. Pietrangelo
9. Giordano
10. Lindholm

Four (former?) "Norris trophy" candidate defencemen in there.

Interesting.

 

[Taak19]

E. Johnson 1.72 2.20 1.86 2.41 -0.48 - (-0.55) = -0.07

Shouldn't that be +0.07

Interesting stats to say the least.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Shouldn't that be +0.07

Interesting stats to say the least.

Thanks for the catch, updated

 

[Raymoondo]

Damn, never imagined Chara would have a negative impact defensively. Really interesting.

 

[BigMacAttack*]

Damn, never imagined Chara would have a negative impact defensively. Really interesting.

Same with McD.

 

[NyQuil]

Can you average the goalie stats for OEL?

 

[weastern bias]

Burns is NOT SJ's #1D, Vlasic is

Burns is basically another forward with his playstyle, hence the garbage net stats

 

[hatterson]

Damn, never imagined Chara would have a negative impact defensively. Really interesting.

Well it doesn't take into account who they're playing against, who they're with, and their deployments.

Also, is this based on even strength only play?

 

[Beef Invictus]

Hmm. You could honestly just leave out any Philly players. We really don't have anybody who counts as a #1.

 

[NyQuil]

Burns is NOT SJ's #1D, Vlasic is

Burns is basically another forward with his playstyle

I assume he went by total icetime?

 

[HarrisonFord]

Damn, never imagined Chara would have a negative impact defensively. Really interesting.

Same with McD.

Doesn't necessarily mean they're bad defensively. You also have to consider they are playing (for the most part) against top competition. So if you used Chara's numbers and compared it to a 2nd pairing defender, it's not really fair. Comparing #1s to #1s like this is good because you're comparing guys in similar competition situations.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Well it doesn't take into account who they're playing against, who they're with, and their deployments.

Also, is this based on even strength only play?

yes it is

 

[HarrisonFord]

Can you average the goalie stats for OEL?

I was being lazy, but yeah I guess I could do that

 

[NyQuil]

I was being lazy, but yeah I guess I could do that

We call that "pulling a Karlsson" in the business.

 

[stepdad gaary]

are these number from this season only?

 

[weastern bias]

I assume he went by total icetime?

Burns gets lots of PP time because he scores a lot, Vlasic does not so he does not

 

[NyQuil]

Burns gets lots of PP time because he scores a lot, Vlasic does not so he does not

I was wondering whether it was total ES icetime because the stats are ES.

 

[weastern bias]

Well it doesn't take into account who they're playing against, who they're with, and their deployments.

Very important distinctions to be made right here

 

[NyQuil]

Well it doesn't take into account who they're playing against, who they're with, and their deployments.

It's pretty tough to account for everything.

 

[HarrisonFord]

We call that "pulling a Karlsson" in the business.

Although thinking about it now, it kind of messes up the "control" I was using. While goaltending was consistent throughout each player, OEL would have 340mins of Smith and 320 of Domingue (aka the difference between 3.14 GA60 and 1.48GA60 when he's on the ice)

 

[FadeToBlack]

That's great and all, and I'm a big fan of advanced statistics, but advanced statistics need to pass the eye test to meet my personal muster, and looking at your top 10 worst impacts, I see a few guys that pass the eye test easily, so I don't buy this.

 

[HarrisonFord]

are these number from this season only?

yes just this season

 

[PensandCaps]

Soooo? Letang is bad? **** these charts. Watch the game

 

[stepdad gaary]

Soooo? Letang is bad? **** these charts. Watch the game

he was very bad for the first half of this season. I imagine if you cut the season in calf he'd be among the highest impact guys during that span.


I dont know how to figure out GF/60 and the WOWY number over a shorter time span but he's got 21 points in his last 14 games and is a +2 over that time as well. I understand those numbers arent as telling but i'd assume that statline would correlate with a pretty high GF/60 while he's on the ice