#1 Defensemen and their Impact (based on Goals)

[HarrisonFord]

Well it doesn't take into account who they're playing against, who they're with, and their deployments.

It's pretty tough to account for everything.

It's hard to account for all those controls, since some will have different levels of talent difference between them and their teammates depending on the individual case. But basically "they're better than the rest of the defensemen on their team, and they're playing against top competition while the rest of their team plays against worse competition" would apply to all of them

 

[Seph]

NYI's #1 this season has been Hamonic, Leddy's only gotten more total icetime due to not having missed any games with injury. Hamonic has the higher TOI/game, though.

with Hamonic: GF 2.05 and GA 2.19
without Hamonic: GF 1.69 (0.36 dif) and GA 2.06 (0.13 dif)
Total dif: 0.23

 

[hatterson]

It's hard to account for all those controls, since some will have different levels of talent difference between them and their teammates depending on the individual case. But basically "they're better than the rest of the defensemen on their team, and they're playing against top competition while the rest of their team plays against worse competition" would apply to all of them

On general they'd play against higher competition, but some coaches are extreme in matchups and some just throw guys out whenever or based on zone starts as opposed to specific matchups.

In Toronto Rielly is matchup up against the oppositions top line as often as Babcock can manage. In Ottawa Karlsson has much less significant splits as his focus is really driving his team's offense instead of shutting down the other teams top line.

 

[MoonDragn]

I think it is unfair to use W or W/O you stats for defensive defensemen especially for Goals for because a lot of defensive defensemen are only used during defensive zone draws and PK and therefore are usually not on the ice when the team scores.

 

[Jeti]

Obviously it doesn't take into account usage - i.e. some teams lean on other pairings for tougher match-ups more than others - but still.. Byfuglien is so underrated on these forums. The narrative of him being bad defensively never let up despite improving every year in Winnipeg (and never really being any worse than guys like Letang/Karlsson/Greene).

 

[gdsmack267]

The pens are a much worse team with Letang out of the lineup.

 

[HarrisonFord]

On general they'd play against higher competition, but some coaches are extreme in matchups and some just throw guys out whenever.

In Toronto Rielly is matchup up against the oppositions top line as often as Babcock can manage. In Ottawa Karlsson has much less significant splits as his focus is really driving his team's offense instead of shutting down the other teams top line.

To be fair though, what I like about the stats I posted is that they're open to interpretation.

With Karlsson, he's focused on driving the offense - but the numbers still show what kind of impact it has on the game. The driving factors behind the numbers are usually something that make sense if you consider the situation of each individual player. I.e. is his team bad? (Subban) Is his coach using him in a certain way? (Karlsson) Is he just imply not good enough to be a #1D? (Del Zotto)

 

[Draw Me a McElephant]

Wait, the Sharks score less when Burns is on the ice? That is pretty surprising, ditto for Letang.

Where do you get these numbers? For the Oilers I'd like to know what Klefbom's numbers look like.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's great and all, and I'm a big fan of advanced statistics, but advanced statistics need to pass the eye test to meet my personal muster, and looking at your top 10 worst impacts, I see a few guys that pass the eye test easily, so I don't buy this.

I think one of the points behind looking at this in such a way is to question 'why.' there may be easy explanations/justifications in some cases. But if a guy passes the eye test and the stats aren't matching what you see, how do you reconcile the difference is the big (but possible simple) question worth asking.

 

[NyQuil]

In Toronto Rielly is matchup up against the oppositions top line as often as Babcock can manage. In Ottawa Karlsson has much less significant splits as his focus is really driving his team's offense instead of shutting down the other teams top line.

And yet, I doubt opposing team's are putting their shutdown guys out there against Rielly while there are teams that put a gameplan together specifically to neutralize Karlsson.

 

[Appleyard]

Obviously it doesn't take into account usage - i.e. some teams lean on other pairings for tougher match-ups more than others - but still.. Byfuglien is so underrated on these forums. The narrative of him being bad defensively never let up despite improving every year in Winnipeg (and never really being any worse than guys like Letang/Karlsson/Greene).

It also does not account for on ice sv%/on ice sh%... they are not all luck but in many circumstances are heavily luck related, especially over a ~40-50 game sample.

Would be interesting to see both Corsi and Shot charts as well.

I mean, going off GF rel stats this season Luca Sbisa is elite... when he has some of the worst corsi rel stats in the league. He just has a horseshoe up his arse atm.

 

[hatterson]

And yet, I doubt opposing team's are putting their shutdown guys out there against Rielly while there are teams that put a gameplan together to neutralize Karlsson.

I'd certainly think that happens. Either way, the idea that all #1 D have roughly similar matchups doesn't really seem to hold for me. Sure in general their competition is probably better than others on their team, but I think there's a large enough variation that a simple goals based WOWY analysis doesn't reveal much information.

I mean based on these numbers, Karlsson is about the same as Greene which seems laughable to me.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Interesting stuff. I do like looking at WOWY numbers. However, I do think it tends to exaggerate the impact of players on bad teams and minimize the impact of players on good teams.

 

[MoonDragn]

For example both Greene and Larsson are heavily leaned on defensively to match against the top lines in the defensive zone. They also kill penalties. Both have great upsides in terms of scoring but are never used that way. It doesn't mean they are not great offensive players just that they aren't used offensively as much on the Devils.

 

[MardyBum]

Buff Buff Buff.

 

[HarrisonFord]

Wait, the Sharks score less when Burns is on the ice? That is pretty surprising, ditto for Letang.

Where do you get these numbers? For the Oilers I'd like to know what Klefbom's numbers look like.

numbers are from stats.hockeyanalysis.com

Burns is tied for 4th in defenseman scoring at ES. However, he's 106th in terms of GF60 when he's on the ice. Looks to me that he's scoring a lot, but his linemates aren't when he's on the ice

 

[LyricalLyricist]

It's not quite as simple because different defenseman face different matchups.

I only consider this useful in the sense that if a guy who faces top matchups still dominates or if a guy who faces weak matchups has a weak differential.

In the middle? Can be just noise.

 

[HarrisonFord]

It's not quite as simple because different defenseman face different matchups.

Would you not agree that #1D face the top competition from the opposing teams?

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

The pens are a much worse team with Letang out of the lineup.

It wouldn't shock me at all see Letang as the player with the highest winning percentage over the last 7-8 years.

 

[YpsiWings]

Kronwall just had the worst half season that I have ever seen from him, really hoping it was from his knee. He deserves to be on the worst impact list.

 

[NyQuil]

In general, it's pretty hard to play a guy 25+ minutes and shelter him.

 

[The Macho King]

Hedman is underrated. CF% of over 56% and driving our offense from the back end. The dude is a two-way monster.

 

[NyQuil]

Hedman is underrated. CF% of over 56% and driving our offense from the back end. The dude is a two-way monster.

I think people know who he is and expect him to compete soon if not now.

Last year was a big coming out for him.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In general, it's pretty hard to play a guy 25+ minutes and shelter him.

Yeah, I think any d-man playing over 25 minutes shouldn't be tagged for matchups in any way since it's pretty clear he's out playing with and against practically everyone.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

stopped reading after i saw how low you had faulk and i am not even being a homer for once

how do you figure he has a "negative impact defensively"

in fact

do not even bother answering, it is very doubtful i will ever click this thread again