LeBrun: “But you know where I’d really like to see Wayne Simmonds is in Tampa Bay."

[LTIR Trickery]

But why is stats from years ago a good sample? Why do we get to use Simmonds best years when he was in his prime when he clearly is out of that prime and declining? Why do we have to use Erne when he was a rookie getting 4th line minutes with non offensive players? When Simmonds was 22 he was only a 30 point player. Erne is breaking out but I don't expect him to ever get to 50-60 points like Simmonds but I also don't expect Simmonds to ever do that or get close again. He's a 40 point guy now while Erne can be a 30 point one.

Sorry for the delay - mostly because he has a proven track record in production over the course of years in the hardest league in the world. Erne has 81 games split across three seasons. I don't think Erne becomes a 30 point player, though I would be thrilled if he did, I certainly want to see him succeed.

The question is, at its root, will Wayne Simmonds make the lightning better? I feel like that is a yes. I think your question isn't that, but rather "at what cost?" which, honestly, is a great question. I tend to think more like you in this situation that I don't want to ditch excellent, cheap young players that we'll continue to need and end up in a Chicago situation.

 

[Starat327]

Is this real life? Wayne Simmonds is pacing for almost as many goals as erne is points.

If you want to argue that you can't re-sign him, that's one thing, and I totally get that. But to suggest Erne is even a comparable player to Simmonds from a production standpoint is some serious mathematical gymnastics.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Adam Erne 0 across the board last 7 games and healthy scratch on the 15th? That Erne? Tough case you got there.

 

[The Macho King]

Adam Erne 0 across the board last 7 games and healthy scratch on the 15th? That Erne? Tough case you got there.

We rotate our forwards in and out. We cycle Erne, Callahan, and Joseph 2 games in and 1 game out. We do the same on D.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

We rotate our forwards in and out. We cycle Erne, Callahan, and Joseph 2 games in and 1 game out. We do the same on D.

Don't think that is a glowing endorsement, though. He doesn't give them a reason to keep him in the lineup most nights. I like Erne, but I think time is running out on him.

 

[HuGo Sham]

LeBrun: ‘Simmonds would be a hell of a finishing touch’ for contender



I'd love him in TB. Tampa has lots of F prospects. What would a realistic deal look like from the Flyers fans?

i'd love mcdavid in montreal. how is this a trade rumour?

 

[HoseEmDown]

Is this real life? Wayne Simmonds is pacing for almost as many goals as erne is points.

If you want to argue that you can't re-sign him, that's one thing, and I totally get that. But to suggest Erne is even a comparable player to Simmonds from a production standpoint is some serious mathematical gymnastics.

Adam Erne 6g 8a 14p +6 in 32gp on a 36 point pace. Wayne Simmonds 15g 7a 22p -12 in 47gp on a 38 point pace. Show me how I'm doing mathematical gymnastics?

 

[PromisedLand]

how much is a team willing to give up for a pending UFA anyway? only team that would really pay solid value would be someone who think they are a contender

East: bolts, caps. pens

West: preds, jets. sharks (may be flames)

 

[SomethingHockey]

Gut feel: some people in this thread have only seen Simmonds play 1-2 games per season against their home team. Some of the takes here are so bad that I’m actually uncomfortable reading this thread.

 

[DFC]

I'd like Simmonds. But I wouldn't like paying a realistic price.

 

[Starat327]

Adam Erne 6g 8a 14p +6 in 32gp on a 36 point pace. Wayne Simmonds 15g 7a 22p -12 in 47gp on a 38 point pace. Show me how I'm doing mathematical gymnastics?

The lightning have 34 games left in the season. Lets pretend that Erne plays them all (he wont, based on what Lightning fans in this thread have said, and his history of being a healthy scratch. But for fun, let's assume):

34 games at his current place would give him an additional 12.75 points, so lets call it 13. That will give him 25 points for the year.

Simmonds has 15 goals in 47 games, or a .32 goal/game pace. The Flyers have 35 games left, and assuming Simmonds remains healthy, he'll score an additional 11 goals at that pace, leaving him with 26 goals on the year.

It's great that your content to assume Erne will pace for that many points over a season. The flaw in that logic is that he can't even play every game that his team plays, and its not because hes been injured.

 

[LightningStrikes]

i'd love mcdavid in montreal. how is this a trade rumour?

It's not a rumor, that's why the thread tag says "LeBrun" not "Rumor".

 

[LightningStrikes]

Adam Erne 6g 8a 14p +6 in 32gp on a 36 point pace. Wayne Simmonds 15g 7a 22p -12 in 47gp on a 38 point pace. Show me how I'm doing mathematical gymnastics?

Simmonds is playing on a way worse team though. And you're completely disregarding all the other aspects of Simmonds' game that totally would make the Lightning a better team compared to the Lightning with Erne in the lineup instead. Simmonds has 42 playoff games under his belt, is tough as nails and a great net presence which could even further improve our offense and powerplay. But since you focus on their respective production, Simmonds is ahead of Erne: Simmonds scores 0.32 goals per game and 0.47 points per game, Erne 0.18 goals/game and 0.42 points/game this season. He almost doubles Erne's goal scoring output.

So as others have said it's out of question that Simmonds is the better player between the two. The real question is what the Flyers' asking price is.

 

[HoseEmDown]

The lightning have 34 games left in the season. Lets pretend that Erne plays them all (he wont, based on what Lightning fans in this thread have said, and his history of being a healthy scratch. But for fun, let's assume):

34 games at his current place would give him an additional 12.75 points, so lets call it 13. That will give him 25 points for the year.

Simmonds has 15 goals in 47 games, or a .32 goal/game pace. The Flyers have 35 games left, and assuming Simmonds remains healthy, he'll score an additional 11 goals at that pace, leaving him with 26 goals on the year.

It's great that your content to assume Erne will pace for that many points over a season. The flaw in that logic is that he can't even play every game that his team plays, and its not because hes been injured.

Let's pretend that Simmonds joins the lightning, since he would be the 8th best winger we'd have he can play Erne's role on the 4th line where he gets say 12 minutes a game. Erne only gets 11 but we'll give Simmonds an extra minute. Simmonds p/60 is 1.70, with the lightning having 34 games left and Simmonds getting 12 a game he has 408 minutes of ice time left this year. At his p/60 that would give him an additional 11.5 points so let's call it 12. At his goal rate that's 8 goals so he's now a 23g 11a 34p player.

Adam Erne goes to Philly and gets Simmonds minutes, which is 16:30 a game but we'll do 16. Erne p/60 is 2.34, Philly has 35 games left so at that 16 minutes he has 560 minutes to go. At his p/60 he would get an additional 21.8 points so we'll call it 22. At his g/60 he would get 9 goals and 13 assists which would take him to a 15g 21a 36p player.

It's great that your content to assume that Simmonds would get the minutes he does now, especially the over 3 on the PP, if he was on the lightning and produce like he has. Erne doesn't play every night because we have the best forward group in the league. Simmonds isn't good enough to come in and push anyone down the lineup, he'll be in the same position Erne is in now trying to earn playing time every game. He's not that top 6 forward he was a couple of years ago, at least not for us.

 

[Starat327]

Let's pretend that Simmonds joins the lightning, since he would be the 8th best winger we'd have he can play Erne's role on the 4th line where he gets say 12 minutes a game. Erne only gets 11 but we'll give Simmonds an extra minute. Simmonds p/60 is 1.70, with the lightning having 34 games left and Simmonds getting 12 a game he has 408 minutes of ice time left this year. At his p/60 that would give him an additional 11.5 points so let's call it 12. At his goal rate that's 8 goals so he's now a 23g 11a 34p player.

Adam Erne goes to Philly and gets Simmonds minutes, which is 16:30 a game but we'll do 16. Erne p/60 is 2.34, Philly has 35 games left so at that 16 minutes he has 560 minutes to go. At his p/60 he would get an additional 21.8 points so we'll call it 22. At his g/60 he would get 9 goals and 13 assists which would take him to a 15g 21a 36p player.

It's great that your content to assume that Simmonds would get the minutes he does now, especially the over 3 on the PP, if he was on the lightning and produce like he has. Erne doesn't play every night because we have the best forward group in the league. Simmonds isn't good enough to come in and push anyone down the lineup, he'll be in the same position Erne is in now trying to earn playing time every game. He's not that top 6 forward he was a couple of years ago, at least not for us.

Except Erne wouldnt get those minutes, so your example is kinda moot. Erne hasnt done much in the games where hes played above 12 minutes a game, and theres no reason to believe that would change when hes playing with our scrubs on the 4th line as opposed to your scrubs on your 4th line.

Agian, points per 60 is a great metric, when used in context. But you can score points when you arent playing, and right now, Erne isnt always playing.

Youre also ignoring the idea that Simmonds is a goal scorer, and what hed be acquired for is scoring goals as well as his "grit" (ill refrain from digressing here). Erne brings nothing to the table other than being a typical 4th line player. The same cant be said for Simmonds.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Simmonds is playing on a way worse team though. And you're completely disregarding all the other aspects of Simmonds' game that totally would make the Lightning a better team compared to the Lightning with Erne in the lineup instead. Simmonds has 42 playoff games under his belt, is tough as nails and a great net presence which could even further improve our offense and powerplay. But since you focus on their respective production, Simmonds is ahead of Erne: Simmonds scores 0.32 goals per game and 0.47 points per game, Erne 0.18 goals/game and 0.42 points/game this season. He almost doubles Erne's goal scoring output.

So as others have said it's out of question that Simmonds is the better player between the two. The real question is what the Flyers' asking price is.

What other aspects of Simmonds game? Erne averages 2.1 hits per game to Simmonds 1.9. Yes Simmonds is scoring at a higher ppg but he's also getting 5 more minutes a game. With each players production per 60 and hits per 60 if you flipped their time on ice Erne would be destroying Simmonds in every aspect this year. Simmonds is a better net front presence and fighter but he won't be getting top PP time so don't think that part will matter much and fighting isn't a part of our game so he won't be doing that much. So what is he needed for?

Wingers on the lightning I start ahead of Simmonds are Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, Gourde, Killorn and Miller. That's 6 so he would be 7th that puts him on the 4th line, even Joseph I would put above him since his play on the 3rd line is important with his speed and his production with limited minutes is still pretty good. Simmonds is a luxury and we have a 5.25 luxury of Miller on the 4th line, Callahan of 5.8 there or in the press box as well as 4.45 Killorn on the 3rd line. We don't need Simmonds unless it's cheap which isn't happening.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Except Erne wouldnt get those minutes, so your example is kinda moot. Erne hasnt done much in the games where hes played above 12 minutes a game, and theres no reason to believe that would change when hes playing with our scrubs on the 4th line as opposed to your scrubs on your 4th line.

Agian, points per 60 is a great metric, when used in context. But you can score points when you arent playing, and right now, Erne isnt always playing.

And Simmonds wouldn't be playing over 3+ minutes on the PP with Giroux, Voracek or Couturier yet only having 4g and 2a to show for it. Simmonds is a better player than Erne it's just that he wouldn't be getting the ice time or matchups that he is used to and he's not producing a ton at 5 on 5, which is where he'll need to. He also would have his minutes dropped and his linemates may be better than in Philly still won't be top 6 players. I don't think he'll be that big an upgrade when you consider all that.

 

[Starat327]

And Simmonds wouldn't be playing over 3+ minutes on the PP with Giroux, Voracek or Couturier yet only having 4g and 2a to show for it. Simmonds is a better player than Erne it's just that he wouldn't be getting the ice time or matchups that he is used to and he's not producing a ton at 5 on 5, which is where he'll need to. He also would have his minutes dropped and his linemates may be better than in Philly still won't be top 6 players. I don't think he'll be that big an upgrade when you consider all that.

You contradict yourself heavily in the same post.

Simmonds production this year: 11g, 5A at 5v5, and take away his 3 minutes from his PP time that he "wont get" in Tampa, and hes still outproducing Erne at a similar TOI.

Sounds like he actually is producing at 5 on 5 this year, and isnt just a PP specialist. Odd concept, but i appreciate you working out the math for me to prove it.

edit: Fun fact - he'd still be just about pacing to double Erne's goal production this season even if he wasnt getting PP time.

 

[HoseEmDown]

You contradict yourself heavily in the same post.

Simmonds production this year: 11g, 5A at 5v5, and take away his 3 minutes from his PP time that he "wont get" in Tampa, and hes still outproducing Erne at a similar TOI.

Sounds like he actually is producing at 5 on 5 this year, and isnt just a PP specialist. Odd concept, but i appreciate you working out the math for me to prove it.

edit: Fun fact - he'd still be just about pacing to double Erne's goal production this season even if he wasnt getting PP time.

Erne 4g 8a at 5 on 5, while playing 15 less games. Simmonds is getting 13:28 ES while Erne 9:49. Neither player is setting the world on fire at 5 on 5, but Erne is doing more with less time. I don't know Simmonds most common linemates but Erne plays with Paquette and Callahan who aren't very offensive, they're used to forecheck and change the momentum. Erne is producing better than we expected in that spot. Unfortunately for him we also have JT Miller making 5.25 who needs ice time so Erne gets scratched a bit, not because he sucks.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Tampa has not only the room for him but could use a guy like him.

We have too many forwards as is we don’t really have room for him

 

[MSSLYNX]

Erne 4g 8a at 5 on 5, while playing 15 less games. Simmonds is getting 13:28 ES while Erne 9:49. Neither player is setting the world on fire at 5 on 5, but Erne is doing more with less time. I don't know Simmonds most common linemates but Erne plays with Paquette and Callahan who aren't very offensive, they're used to forecheck and change the momentum. Erne is producing better than we expected in that spot. Unfortunately for him we also have JT Miller making 5.25 who needs ice time so Erne gets scratched a bit, not because he sucks.

So far JVR and Weal. Now Patrick and Laughton.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

You contradict yourself heavily in the same post.

Simmonds production this year: 11g, 5A at 5v5, and take away his 3 minutes from his PP time that he "wont get" in Tampa, and hes still outproducing Erne at a similar TOI.

Sounds like he actually is producing at 5 on 5 this year, and isnt just a PP specialist. Odd concept, but i appreciate you working out the math for me to prove it.

edit: Fun fact - he'd still be just about pacing to double Erne's goal production this season even if he wasnt getting PP time.

Since start of 17-18 Erne has 1.21 p1/60 and 55.4% xGF%. Small sample for sure but that’s clear above average results. Simmonds has 0.99 p1/60 and 49.5% xgf%. I’m really not sold on Simmer as a 5v5 player. Even this year Simmonds has a pedestrian 1.19 p1/60 and 50.3% xg. I’m seriously not sold on him being a major upgrade on Erne, if he’s even one at all.

 

[God King Fudge]

The moral of the story: some Tampa fans find prospects and picks to be more valuable than NHL players.

If you don't like the guy, don't think he has a spot, don't want to pay him. Whatever.

Stop breaking your backs to say Erne is better. He isn't. No fancy stats that mean nothing and no small sample size means he's better than Simmonds. Quit.

 

[HoseEmDown]

The moral of the story: some Tampa fans find prospects and picks to be more valuable than NHL players.

If you don't like the guy, don't think he has a spot, don't want to pay him. Whatever.

Stop breaking your backs to say Erne is better. He isn't. No fancy stats that mean nothing and no small sample size means he's better than Simmonds. Quit.

How is points per 60 a fancy stat? How is half a season a small sample size? Your 60 point player Wayne Simmonds isn't even on pace for 40 this year. I won't quit because he's not the player he was and that you think he still is. Would he make us tougher sure but we didn't lose to the Capitals because of Tom Wilson, we don't need to equal that out for a chance to beat them. We need Kucherov to not go on vacation before the playoffs end.

 

[ted2019]

Its not about knocking people out, it's about adding a guy with grit who can help the team score and stand up for his teammates if needed.

Believe it or not, most teams don't have a guy like Wilson who tries to knock people out of games.

The Pens had Matt Cooke for a few seasons.