ricky0034
Registered User
- Jun 8, 2010
- 15,057
- 7,277
If we denote a 50% probability for McDavid to win, with players in the set of next ten most likely to win adding up to, say, 40% and the rest sharing the tenth percentile, and supposing that the ten players after McDavid each has a similar weight (I mean realistically there couldn't be much fluctuation among them since their weights are so low to begin with - a drastic increase in the weight of one player would lower the weights of others below a reasonable level), that would mean the player with the second best odds has a win probability of ~4%. Doesn't seem reasonable to me.
I would still give McDavid the best odds, even with the current injury. But not the best odds against the field, with or without the injury.
he's won the last 3 Art Rosses in a row and just outscored the closest non teammate by 40 points last year