Zero confidence in Laviolette

[triggrman]

I hate to say it but I'm almost convinced that our biggest problem is the guy chewing gum behind the bench. He seems clueless.

What is our identity now? Our we a gritty grinding team, if so, shouldn't we have just kept Trotz?

Forsberg has pretty much stayed the same player he was his rookie year, Fiala has been up and down. Jarnkrok hasn't progressed. Smith has regressed. Someone please tell me how he's making us a better team.

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[bdub24]

What round of the payoffs was that again?

 

[Pred303]

i love the playoffs. but the best team doesn't always win the cup. in fact i would go as far to say the real team doesn't usually win the cup. too many short term variables. too dependent on key injuries. hockey is such a game of streaks, that it usually comes down to who is hot at exactly the right time and who gets the 'breaks' at exactly the right time. that's why you see so many 'upsets' of wild card teams over higher seeded teams in the first round. i'm of the camp that if you could replay the entire playoffs immediately after the cup all over again, you would almost always have a different 'winner'. it's why i always say the playoffs are to a large extent a 'crapshoot'. most hockey people don't want to believe that and simply believe the best team period won the cup. i'm not one of those usually.

hockey is really all about entertainment. to me, the 6 month long season is what is more important for the sheer amount of 'entertainment' it offers versus a possible 2 week 5-7 game stretch once the playoffs start. sure playoff games are much more intense and much more nerve wrecking than the regular season. but to me they are really a 'second' season.

because of the randomness of the game of hockey and the playoffs themselves, i tend to really downplay those players and coaches that people judge by how good/bad they were in the playoffs, unless it becomes a long term pattern. sure wilson has had two great playoff series in a row now, but to me that doesn't make him a hard and true playoff performer quite yet. Now as to Trotz, he has more of an 'established' failure record in the playoffs admittedly. but in reality, he's probably only had 3-4 teams with the talent to go farther out of the 10 odd times he's been there. and we must remember, until a guy wins his first cup he's always considered to be a 'non-playoff performer'.

lot of rambling by me, but trig i'm with you, i am really beginning to lose confidence in lavy's ability to shape this roster into the team he/we want to see. i had hoped for some explosive, exciting offensive machine, yet haven't seen any real change in our goal scoring ability. very disappointing.

 

[Legionnaire11]

Good stuff 303, reminds me of a topic from the main boards a while ago about how the President's Trophy should carry more prestige than it does. Of course nearly everyone laughed it off saying that it was a meaningless trophy and only the Cup matters, but I definitely think the idea has a lot of merit.

 

[Pred303]

i agree legion. the presidents cup should have more significance attached to it than it does by most fans.

personally, for me, one of the most disappointing things that has ever happened to the preds was the second year of the kariya era for us. the one where we had the presidents cup in our hands before losing a back to back to detroit in late march, which not only cost us the presidents cup but even a divisional title for the best team we ever iced by far. was a crushing event in my mind.

another point about the playoffs versus the regular season is that admittedly we see an entirely different game due to personnel usage. all of a sudden depth becomes far less important as teams top six forwards and top two pairs d-men get dramatically more ice time. it tends to really benefit the 'star' loaded teams far more than more balanced teams that do well in the regular season. it's why teams like PIT and CHI and LAK (and one could argue the SJS teams that have eliminated us 3 times and the DET teams that have as well) that have true superstars have a huge advantage over teams that are more evenly spread out. so it's also no 'accident' that those highly front loaded teams tend to win in the playoffs and has always been a shortfall of ours. one could make the argument that teams are built differently for the playoffs versus regular season and one would be right. some old timers will say the playoffs now more accurately reflect how it 'used to be' years ago in the NHL. back when teams only dressed 5 d-men and only played their top 9 forwards every game even in the regular season. this is how it was as late as the 80's, before TOI was even a kept stat. back in the 70's it's likely guys top line guy forwards all got more than 25 minutes per night, maybe even 30, and many dmen played 30-35 in most every regular season game. i remember it all well.

 

[token grinder]

I am going to wait and see if he fails to use Josi and Subban together once healthy.

I think alot of our issues scoring is that we can't really move the puck out and transition well.

 

[KurtAngle]

i agree legion. the presidents cup should have more significance attached to it than it does by most fans.

personally, for me, one of the most disappointing things that has ever happened to the preds was the second year of the kariya era for us. the one where we had the presidents cup in our hands before losing a back to back to detroit in late march, which not only cost us the presidents cup but even a divisional title for the best team we ever iced by far. was a crushing event in my mind.

Good luck on making the President's Cup mean anything. Sorry, but that's never going to happen in any sport.

To me the playoffs are more about matchups. Those Kariya series when our tiny guys were matched up against Thornton and those bruisers they had, it was boys vs. men. Thornton just held the puck all game it seemed.

But, I think we came out on the good a few times, like when we beat the Ducks who had should have been a memory Emory in goal. I thought Anaheim was a better overall team but goaltending was awful.

As for Lavy, I still have hope. I did hear Poile on 102,5 on the Jarred and GM show in the afternoon admit they are going back to the Trotz like grinders because their supposed high skill guys just aren't doing it. Hmmm....kinda makes me wonder what his relationship is with Lavy, now.

But, I still want to see Lavy for a year or two. I just never had confidence in Trotz's style in the playoffs. You want to win a President's Cup? Sure. But in the playoffs I always felt his style just wouldn't work every night against high skills teams.

I said when the Weber trade was made we would struggle, but I had no idea how much we would miss him. I think that's the #1 reason for the decline this season. I don't blame them for trading Weber, but I think Poile is going to have to find another Weber type this offseason.

 

[Drake744]

I don't blame them for trading Weber, but I think Poile is going to have to find another Weber type this offseason.

In this scenario what type of non-elite player qualifies as someone we need to get that will cover the loss of Weber?

 

[drwpreds]

I said when the Weber trade was made we would struggle, but I had no idea how much we would miss him. I think that's the #1 reason for the decline this season. I don't blame them for trading Weber, but I think Poile is going to have to find another Weber type this offseason.

I may be in the minority but I don’t agree with that at all.

We are in the middle of season in which almost nothing has gone right:

· Most of our star players have underperformed, both offense and defense.
· We have been decimated by injuries to key players and because of that have used more players than any team in the league.
· And I would also say we have had some pretty bad puck luck this year.

Despite all of that, we STILL have a better record right now than we did at this time last year (when we had Weber and a healthy team). So compared to last year at this time there really actually hasn't been a decline, as hard as that is to believe.

I just don't think (at least right now) you can pin our troubles on not having Weber.

 

[predfan98]

This was yes or no , right? Yes, zero confidence

 

[NSH615]

I may be in the minority but I don’t agree with that at all.

We are in the middle of season in which almost nothing has gone right:

· Most of our star players have underperformed, both offense and defense.
· We have been decimated by injuries to key players and because of that have used more players than any team in the league.
· And I would also say we have had some pretty bad puck luck this year.

Despite all of that, we STILL have a better record right now than we did at this time last year (when we had Weber and a healthy team). So compared to last year at this time there really actually hasn't been a decline, as hard as that is to believe.

I just don't think (at least right now) you can pin our troubles on not having Weber.

Where this hurt us IMO is the lack of leadership. It wasn't just Weber's loss, but still the loss was felt in a major way here. I do think had we had Weber, we would only have been half as bad, especially in October.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I may be in the minority but I don’t agree with that at all.

We are in the middle of season in which almost nothing has gone right:

· Most of our star players have underperformed, both offense and defense.
· We have been decimated by injuries to key players and because of that have used more players than any team in the league.
· And I would also say we have had some pretty bad puck luck this year.

Despite all of that, we STILL have a better record right now than we did at this time last year (when we had Weber and a healthy team). So compared to last year at this time there really actually hasn't been a decline, as hard as that is to believe.

I just don't think (at least right now) you can pin our troubles on not having Weber.

Totally agree. Adversity has hit us from all angles. The big upside this year has been the play of Saros. Not only has he given us a chance to win every game he's played, but he's playing at an elite level within a small sample size. Certainly gives us confidence in the 2nd half as each game will feel like a playoff game. No more giving away back-to-backs.

Just remember the bear chasing story about speed. I don't have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. The Preds only need to outrun the group of flawed teams we're jockeying with for #7 and #8, and #3 in the Division. There's an eternity left in the season and we've played most of it without a full team.

We will find a way to win enough to get in, because that's what we do. Lavy's done it twice, and he'll do it again. We'll all live-and-die with each game and ride the roller coaster. It'll be entertaining and worth our emotional investment.

Then we'll have the playoff experience, where we know it doesn't matter we're you're seeded.

I know it's frustrating when goals get called off, and another player gets hurt, and players under-perform. We get all wrapped up in it cuz our give-a-crap meter stays stubbornly high despite adversity. It's fun watching games that matter and then sharing the experience of being a Pred fan with friends, family, and in the digital world.

In the midst of all the drama, don't forget to notice the collateral beauty of it all. Its special to have your own team and live-and-die with them. There's more livin' than dyin'.

 

[bdub24]

With his coaching, we went further in the playoffs than we have ever been before. You wanna say it was dumb luck and match ups that's ok by me. But to say Zero confidence? None? That's a bridge to far for me, and I'm one of the first when Lavy was brought on board to worry about his track record on a club like ours.

 

[Armourboy]

My bigger thing with him is you never really see anything develop or change. The mistakes we make at the start of the season are still there at the end.

Lavi's system just isn't really built on slow and grinding so watching these last few games is like watching someone trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. Yeah I get the guys aren't getting it done, I get the idea of playing more defensively, but scrapping your roster to fill it with waiver guys isn't going to get you into the playoffs.

 

[glenngineer]

Lots of merit to both sides but with the injuries we've sustained plus the lack of having certain guys at camp because of the Worlds didn't help chemistry right from the get go.

We've effectively been playing without a top pairing guy for a month and with Josi's injury last week our top two defensemen.

Add in the fact that we've lost 1 line from our top 9 and replaced it with effectively a fourth line full of grinders, pick your line between Fisher and Grant's and it's a recipe for disaster.

Lavy has lost all confidence in Smith. With all the injuries and call ups Smith wasn't even getting PP time with a ton of guys out of the lineup. While Smith has struggled, he's still hustling and yet he's being benched or not played in situations to succeed.

The PP has been a disaster as well in the sense that guys seem to be in positions on the ice that don't play to their strengths. Why would you not have Forsberg on the left faceoff dot waiting for one timers? They finally put him there the other night. Also, when Josi and Subban were healthy we were using two lefties and two righties at the points together as opposed to a lefty/righty combo. Inexcusable.

As good as Johansen and Forsberg are, they don't mesh well on the same line for whatever reason. I can't explain it and I was hoping for some sort of Getzlaf/Perry chemistry but it doesn't work with them.

Arvy has cooled down offensively.

Johansen doesn't shoot enough.

Wilson's puck possession in the offensive zone is missed more than most people care to admit.

The team is better with Saros in net for whatever reason and Lavy won't give the kid a few starts in a row to see if we can build any momentum with him.

We have a lot of redundant pieces up front. We have two grinding lines right now. We have Jarnkrok in our top 6 effectively because of it and while he's a decent piece, he doesn't belong there. You can't have 7 forwards on a roster that are grinders/two way players that don't bring much offense to the table. Fisher is the only one and that puts too much pressure on the other 5 forwards to score. Add in to the fact that we've benched Smith and sent Fiala to the minors yet again and any chance of playing the system Lavy wants to play are out the window.

Add to what Token said about the defenders not being able to break out like we used to with Josi and Subban out and it's a train wreck. The surprise about the defenders is they've played within themselves and haven't been half bad for what we've ice since Josi went down. Irwin plays well with Ellis. Ekholm has played well with Weber. Bitetto is playing like a champ and with an edge. Carrier seemed good the other night and not out of place. While they're not "sexy", they've been getting the job done.

For as bad as all this sounds, we're in the playoff hunt whether we want to believe it or not. Go on a little run or win 3 of every 4 for a while and we're in the playoffs. Get healthy and I'm interested to see what this group can do. Pair Subban with Josi and I'm even more curious as to what this group can do and I really don't know why Lavy is so reluctant to go there. Trotz did the same with Suter and Weber for a while until he went there and we know how that turned out.

Get healthy and roll these 4 lines/3 pairings

Neal-Joey-Arvy
Forsberg-Ribs-Smith
Wilson-Fisher-Fiala
Salomaki-Watson-McLeod

Josi/Subban
Ekholm/Ellis
Bitetto/Irwin

Yes. No Jarnkrok. No Sissons. This lineup gives you three lines that can score. It gives you balance on each line. You have a 4th line that can bang with 3 penalty killers. It gives you size on each line and a ton of the 4th line. If you want to go a different route you can throw Jarnkrok or Sissons out there on the 4th line if need be. The D pairings give you a top 4 that is solid and a 3rd pairing that isn't going to hurt you with some grit.

I'd like to see what happens when this team is healthy and clicking on all cylinders, something that has not happened all year long. Maybe it never happens this year. I have no idea but for all that's gone wrong, the fact that where we are is a testament to Lavy at this point than to be questioning him. That's just me though.

 

[NSH615]

Lots of merit to both sides but with the injuries we've sustained plus the lack of having certain guys at camp because of the Worlds didn't help chemistry right from the get go.

We've effectively been playing without a top pairing guy for a month and with Josi's injury last week our top two defensemen.

Add in the fact that we've lost 1 line from our top 9 and replaced it with effectively a fourth line full of grinders, pick your line between Fisher and Grant's and it's a recipe for disaster.

Lavy has lost all confidence in Smith. With all the injuries and call ups Smith wasn't even getting PP time with a ton of guys out of the lineup. While Smith has struggled, he's still hustling and yet he's being benched or not played in situations to succeed.

The PP has been a disaster as well in the sense that guys seem to be in positions on the ice that don't play to their strengths. Why would you not have Forsberg on the left faceoff dot waiting for one timers? They finally put him there the other night. Also, when Josi and Subban were healthy we were using two lefties and two righties at the points together as opposed to a lefty/righty combo. Inexcusable.

As good as Johansen and Forsberg are, they don't mesh well on the same line for whatever reason. I can't explain it and I was hoping for some sort of Getzlaf/Perry chemistry but it doesn't work with them.

Arvy has cooled down offensively.

Johansen doesn't shoot enough.

Wilson's puck possession in the offensive zone is missed more than most people care to admit.

The team is better with Saros in net for whatever reason and Lavy won't give the kid a few starts in a row to see if we can build any momentum with him.

We have a lot of redundant pieces up front. We have two grinding lines right now. We have Jarnkrok in our top 6 effectively because of it and while he's a decent piece, he doesn't belong there. You can't have 7 forwards on a roster that are grinders/two way players that don't bring much offense to the table. Fisher is the only one and that puts too much pressure on the other 5 forwards to score. Add in to the fact that we've benched Smith and sent Fiala to the minors yet again and any chance of playing the system Lavy wants to play are out the window.

Add to what Token said about the defenders not being able to break out like we used to with Josi and Subban out and it's a train wreck. The surprise about the defenders is they've played within themselves and haven't been half bad for what we've ice since Josi went down. Irwin plays well with Ellis. Ekholm has played well with Weber. Bitetto is playing like a champ and with an edge. Carrier seemed good the other night and not out of place. While they're not "sexy", they've been getting the job done.

For as bad as all this sounds, we're in the playoff hunt whether we want to believe it or not. Go on a little run or win 3 of every 4 for a while and we're in the playoffs. Get healthy and I'm interested to see what this group can do. Pair Subban with Josi and I'm even more curious as to what this group can do and I really don't know why Lavy is so reluctant to go there. Trotz did the same with Suter and Weber for a while until he went there and we know how that turned out.

Get healthy and roll these 4 lines/3 pairings

Neal-Joey-Arvy
Forsberg-Ribs-Smith
Wilson-Fisher-Fiala
Salomaki-Watson-McLeod

Josi/Subban
Ekholm/Ellis
Bitetto/Irwin

Yes. No Jarnkrok. No Sissons. This lineup gives you three lines that can score. It gives you balance on each line. You have a 4th line that can bang with 3 penalty killers. It gives you size on each line and a ton of the 4th line. If you want to go a different route you can throw Jarnkrok or Sissons out there on the 4th line if need be. The D pairings give you a top 4 that is solid and a 3rd pairing that isn't going to hurt you with some grit.

I'd like to see what happens when this team is healthy and clicking on all cylinders, something that has not happened all year long. Maybe it never happens this year. I have no idea but for all that's gone wrong, the fact that where we are is a testament to Lavy at this point than to be questioning him. That's just me though.

I'm pretty sure that Forsberg has been with Johansen for most of his goals in the last month. He does have issues when Neal is on that line though.

Johansen's problems with not shooting enough I think are related to his linemates needing a playmaker, therefore he has kinda taken on the Ribeiro role.

 

[triggrman]

My biggest gripe is we are a young team, yet, our young guys aren't improving, they're staying the same or regressing..

I also see no ability to adapt to overtime and that's killing us in the standings.

These are fundamental coaching flaws..

So yes, zero confidence.

 

[Viqsi]

I am going to wait and see if he fails to use Josi and Subban together once healthy.

I'm trying not to judge him based on One More Thing (if I was, the team's OT play would be enough for me to call for his head), but yeah, that's definitely something I'll be watching for.

I won't go so far as to say I have zero confidence with Lavi, but it's definitely low. There's certainly plenty of adversity to go around, but some of his decisions upfront have been puzzling at best. I'd be less worried if it was working, but right now it's only half-working and it doesn't feel like it's something that can last for whatever reason.

* * *​

Johansen's problems with not shooting enough I think are related to his linemates needing a playmaker, therefore he has kinda taken on the Ribeiro role.

This is kind of why I keep thinking "what if we pair him with Wilson..."

* * *​

My biggest gripe is we are a young team, yet, our young guys aren't improving, they're staying the same or regressing..

I also see no ability to adapt to overtime and that's killing us in the standings.

These are fundamental coaching flaws..

So yes, zero confidence.

I concur that they are flaws and they worry me too, but for me "cause for worry" is not the same as "lost all confidence", I guess.

 

[triggrman]

I worried at first in his first season when I saw that how streaky his teams were, when they're good, they're good but when they're bad they're terrible and he has a tough time correcting it.

The 2nd year, I worried more because we started out bad after finishing bad that season before but then we turned it around and carried that into the playoffs despite Rinne being below average most of the season.

This season I've lost confidence. We started bad, got warm then we returned to bad, regardless of the record, we've been bad lately, I don't have any confidence he can turn the season around.

 

[Viqsi]

I worried at first in his first season when I saw that how streaky his teams were, when they're good, they're good but when they're bad they're terrible and he has a tough time correcting it.

The 2nd year, I worried more because we started out bad after finishing bad that season before but then we turned it around and carried that into the playoffs despite Rinne being below average most of the season.

This season I've lost confidence. We started bad, got warm then we returned to bad, regardless of the record, we've been bad lately, I don't have any confidence he can turn the season around.

Fair enough. I disagree w/r/t the severity of the situation myself, but otherwise...

 

[David Singleton]

The inability to adapt to 3-on-3 OT given the mobile defense and decent number of talented forwards the Predators have is baffling. The fact we haven't seen much in the way of change in strategy is inexcusable.

The PP is a similar situation. Even with the injuries, a first unit can be formed that plays better than this team does. It feels like this team has a harder time entering the zone when up a man than at ES.

Laviolette is both a system coach and "motivator". In some ways, he is like Phil Jackson. Jackson was a system coach (triangle offense), but his assistants were the primary teachers of the system. Jackson was obviously a master motivator and manager of egos. John Calipari (dribble-drive offense) is another decent example.

For the Predators to play better, getting healthy would help. More importantly, the responsibility will fall to McCarthy and Housley to adapt their PP/OT strategies and personnel within the confines of Laviolette's system.

Good coaches realize where their own weaknesses are and surround themselves with assistants to strengthen those weaknesses. Saban's hiring of Kiffin was a great example of that.

There's nothing wrong with the head coach not being an X's and O's guy. But one has to be willing to hold their assistants accountable too.

 

[Gh24]

This is kind of why I keep thinking "what if we pair him with Wilson..."

Me too.

Willy - Joey - x
FF - Ribs - x

 

[glenngineer]

Me too.

Willy - Joey - x
FF - Ribs - x

Willy - Joey - x(Arvy)
FF - Ribs - x(Neal)
Smith - Fish - Fiala?

Or flip Neal and Smith

 

[Byrddog]

I was not a fan of hiring Lavi in the first place but I do not think he has been given what he needs. I know it is not popular to talk bad about the players but if you honestly look at the roster each year Lavi has been here they are no way close to the players he had in Philly or Carolina. Now he for sure started out with a better defense than he has ever had and goaltending that was better as well. The difference is Lavi always used forwards to pile up the goals and this is where Poile has let him doan. Now before everyone wigs out there is potential Fiala, Kaminev, Arvvidson, and at one time I considered Aberg promising as well as Sissions. Forsberg, Neal and the addition of Johanson is just not enough firepower for Lavi's system. Smith and Wilson well they are what they are and what they have always been third liners that in a pinch can fill in for short periods in the top 6. In fact Smith-Wilson-Riberio could be a good third line, overpaid but thats Poiles calling card for the last what 5 years.

It has been pretty simple for opposing teams to focus on Neal,FF, Johanson especially this season. Especially on the road with last change teams do a better job shutting these guys down. 26-28-9 on the road over last season and this so 26-37 in win loss or a .412 win% on the road during this time frame. A team can now win enough home games to overcome that. Team would need to be 48-15 in the same 63 game period at home or .760 at home. So what has happened on the road is directly related to losses on road. If somehow they can play .760 at home this takes ther winning percentage to just above .580 and oddly results in 95 points they very place most think it would take to make the playoffs.

The transition from the Trotz team to a LAvi team is still not complete balance wise. And considering Lavi just signed a two year extension one can expect more player movment in the next six months than the team has made in some time.

 

[triggrman]

Our roster isn't as talented as Carolina, or Philadelphia? Are you sure?