Prospect Info: Zach Yuen to re-enter draft - didn't get drafted, now UFA

[garret9]

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=353

Hmm... 5th or 6th round estimation...
If that is the case (which Pronman is obviously only one opinion, although one I respect highly), unlikely that Chevy would have gotten much value in trade.

 

[Gump Hasek]

I think it's quite clear garret is supposing. It is odd that Yuen wasn't signed. There isn't an obvious reason hence the supposition and guess work.

Well, the point being that, both here and on twitter, it seems like there are a lot of attempts being made to paint the issue in a certain manner or light, attempts being made in a vacuum of information. The reason behind a lack of a signing could just as easily be due a chronic injury or pain issue, or perhaps the player would now prefer to go to university instead of playing hockey for a living. Many seem to be seeking an "aha!" moment versus simply acknowledging that things don't always work out to plan.

I'm reminded of an interview that Chevy gave during the prospect camp last summer. He basically stated that, while it would be nice to envision all of the players at that camp one day donning a Jets uni, the reality is that many of them won't due any myriad of circumstances, that perhaps in some cases they've more openings available at certain positions versus others, and that in other cases players simply play themselves out of the system. It just seems to me that some should take from those words that the prospect list is more fluid than they believe it to be.

Whatever. Carry on with the speculation within a vacuum.

 

[allan5oh]

1) I don't think it could (should) be contract limits, because Jets even with all RFA signings, a backup goalie, and the #2RW that Chevy covets would still one of the lower counts in the league

Further expanding this, we also have a lot of prospects that are in the NCAA, so we retain their rights longer and we don't have to hand out contracts. It would take many years to fill up our prospect pool enough to hit the contract limit. It's not really a worry at all.

I have to agree with garrett here, it was most likely a contract issue. Not a player issue (given other lesser players have been signed), and not a contract room issue.

 

[garret9]

Well, the point being that, both here and on twitter, it seems like there are a lot of attempts being made to paint the issue a certain manner or light, attempts being made in a vacuum of information. The reason behind a lack of a signing could just as easily be due a chronic injury or pain issue, or perhaps the player would now prefer to go to university instead of playing hockey for a living. Many seem to be seeking an "aha!" moment versus simply acknowledging that things don't always work out to plan.

I'm reminded of an interview that Chevy gave during the prospect camp last season. He basically stated that, while it would be nice to envision all of the players at that camp one day donning a Jets uni, the reality is that many of them won't due any myriad of circumstances, that perhaps in some cases they've more openings available at certain positions versus others, and that in other cases players simply play themselves out of the system. It just seems to me that some should take from those words that the prospect list is more fluid than they believe it to be.

Whatever. Carry on with the speculation within a vacuum.

Huh????

I would think that all the possibilities you just mentioned in the first paragraph fall into the category of

1) something personal or the like that caused an issue (whether that be for Yuen or TNSE)

or

I'm going on something happened that we don't know... Like maybe something in family, or personal, or who knows...

I'm not seeking an "aha!" moment although many here could be...

I'm not really steamed as some people are, more thinking out loud (or I guess in type haha) to try to find a logical explanation, since we probably won't be hearing one

I'm just merely discussing probabilities... which are not in a vacuum as we do have some information, which I point out to, although not with all information as none of us have the privilege of... no matter who you are... unless you are Chevy *gasp* JK haha

I do not expect every prospect to become a Jet, nor did I expect Yuen to become a Jet in this specific instance. I think I've been pretty clear on what I do and do not suppose and where my logic is from

 

[Gump Hasek]

I'm not seeking an "aha!" moment although many here could be...

Yet when you said this...

Just like Truck, if he goes earlier than 6th round, it is a mark on Chevy that he should have started the ELC procedure earlier to trade if it didn't seem like it was going to happen.

it seems to run counter to that claim. What you view as a mark can alternatively be seen as an attempt to parlay two late picks into a player... a player that just didn't work out for the franchise for whatever reason. I'd rather the GM initially took that risk in that case and don't see the failure to complete a deal as a mark whatsoever, especially given that we don't even know why the franchise didn't conclude a deal to begin with. It didn't work out, but at least they took a shot. You also don't know when the team initially approached the player to make a deal, so that claim rings hollow as well.

 

[allan5oh]

You're not looking at the whole picture. If he goes 2-5th round, he still had trade value even unsigned. That has nothing to do wether or not we thought he would work out. The two are completely tangent to each other. He's a young prospect with value, and that value disappeared into nothing.

For those saying maybe we couldn't find a trade partner, if he goes 2-5th round I find that extremely hard to believe. If he goes 6th or higher then I'd agree.

But until draft day comes, or Chevy talks about the subject, we sit here bickering to each other.

edit:

I do hope he goes in the 6th or 7th round, or not at all, because that paints a more clear picture for us.

 

[Gump Hasek]

You're not looking at the whole picture. If he goes 2-5th round, he still had trade value even unsigned. That has nothing to do wether or not we thought he would work out. The two are completely tangent to each other. He's a young prospect with value, and that value disappeared into nothing.

And if he goes late in this coming draft or doesn't get redrafted then the value of the ownership his rights was essentially nil. I'm looking at the whole picture and am not rushing to judgement either way, especially given the lack of any confirming information to this point. There is a nuance there that I feel you may be missing.

I see you just ninja edited your post; my point stands.

 

[allan5oh]

No ninja edit, I always add "edit" to mine.

So we basically agree, if he goes 6th or later Chevy is vindicated. However if he goes earlier that doesn't necessarily mean Chevy is in trouble either. It just means there was a possibility of a mistake.

I don't think either garret or I will come in here posting "I told you so" if he goes 5th round or earlier. But it will be noted.

 

[garret9]

Yet when you said this...



it seems to run counter to that claim. What you view as a mark can alternatively be seen as an attempt to parlay two late picks into a player... a player that just didn't work out for the franchise for whatever reason. I'd rather the GM initially took that risk in that case and don't see the failure to complete a deal as a mark whatsoever, especially given that we don't even know why the franchise didn't conclude a deal to begin with. It didn't work out, but at least they took a shot. You also don't know when the team initially approached the player to make a deal, so that claim rings hollow as well.

Well I think that's pretty obvious...

If he goes before 6th round he had enough value that he could have been traded for a late round pick...
Something (although little) for nothing...

Not failure, just a mark.
No one is perfect and people error.


Also, I have noted other side of the coin:

Hmm... 5th or 6th round estimation...
If that is the case (which Pronman is obviously only one opinion, although one I respect highly), unlikely that Chevy would have gotten much value in trade.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Or, you may both be overestimating the value of a mid-range pick. If GMs' feel he will be a mid-to-late round pick then they aren't likely to offer anything for a player they know they can acquire for free at the end of June. This isn't Bobby Orr we are talking about but rather is simply one of many players than went unsigned.

 

[garret9]

Or, you may be overestimating the value of a mid-range pick. If GM's feel he will be a mid-to-late round pick then they aren't likely to offer anything for a player they know they can acquire for free at the end of June.

Huh...

I'm saying *if* a GM is willing to spend a draft pick higher than a 6th round, the would likely also be willing to pay a lesser value draft pick for the exact same player...

Falling to FA would still fit what I said... If he falls to FA then it would apply to how I said that then Yuen has no trade value and therefore no mark against Chevy.

Name being Bobby Orr or not would still not differ the situation.

 

[truck]

Or, you may both be overestimating the value of a mid-range pick. If GMs' feel he will be a mid-to-late round pick then they aren't likely to offer anything for a player they know they can acquire for free at the end of June. This isn't Bobby Orr we are talking about but rather is simply one of many players than went unsigned.

I don't understand your line of logic here.

If a team knows they will be willing to spend a 4th round pick on Yuen in the draft, why wouldn't they be willing to trade a 5th or 6th round pick for him ahead of time.

Small assets are still assets. A team will need to use one to draft him, and it would be better for the Jets if that asset went to them instead of going nowhere.

 

[Gump Hasek]

Huh...

I'm saying *if* a GM is willing to spend a draft pick higher than a 6th round, the would likely also be willing to pay a lesser value draft pick for the exact same player...

Falling to FA would still fit what I said... If he falls to FA then it would apply to how I said that then Yuen has no trade value and therefore no mark against Chevy.

Name being Bobby Orr or not would still not differ the situation.

You are perhaps assuming again, this time that they either wanted to, or had the time to trade his rights. We don't have any confirming information to basically anything so this is all blind speculation on all sides; that would be the point.

Have a nice day! I have work to do.

 

[garret9]

You are perhaps assuming again, this time that they either wanted to, or had the time to trade his rights. We don't have any confirming information to basically anything so this is all blind speculation on all sides; that would be the point.

Have a nice day! I have work to do.

If Chevy waited too long to negotiate in order to get a decent read if this was going to happen or not...
That's still on him.
No difference.

If it happens it's a mark... if it doesn't it's not a mark...
Simple and easy situation, regardless of any speculation since none would be needed.

 

[Gump Hasek]

If Chevy waited too long to negotiate in order to get a decent read if this was going to happen or not...
That's still on him.
No difference.

Not really; it takes two parties to sign a deal. Perhaps they extended their best offer and the player took a pass at the deadline? This isn't a player that they needed to sign at all costs and I'm quite sure the team was well aware of the ramifications of his going unsigned. No mark, but rather, perhaps our manager just assigns value differently than do you.

Good day.

 

[garret9]

Not really; it takes two parties to sign a deal. Perhaps they extended their best offer and the player took a pass at the deadline? This isn't a player that they needed to sign at all costs and I'm quite sure the team was well aware of the ramifications of his going unsigned. No mark, but rather, perhaps our manager just assigns value differently than do you.

Good day.

No...

If the other party is not willing to negotiate in a timely manner you get what you can.
It has nothing to do with MY personal assessment of value or heck even Chevy's assessment of value but simple asset management.

If it looks like you are getting no value from the asset one way, then try another. If someone takes Yuen early, then obviously either Chevy dropped the ball by not looking or dropped the ball by not putting a negotiating deadline early enough to give him the freedom to look.

It may not even matter, as maybe Yuen goes in a late round because there is no interest or heck maybe he doesn't even get re-drafted. In this case maybe Chevy did look and there was nothing.

 

[Gump Hasek]

No...

If the other party is not willing to negotiate in a timely manner you get what you can.
It has nothing to do with MY personal assessment of value or heck even Chevy's assessment of value but simple asset management.

If it looks like you are getting no value from the asset one way, then try another. If someone takes Yuen early, then obviously either Chevy dropped the ball by not looking or dropped the ball by not putting a negotiating deadline early enough to give him the freedom to look.

Again, you are essentially assuming with that statement that the team didn't consider all options when dealing with him; I'm betting they did and it just didn't work out for some reason or another. Oh well. Sometimes in life deals don't proceed according to plans due circumstance.

Cheers.

 

[garret9]

Again, you are essentially assuming with that statement that the team didn't consider all options when dealing with him; I'm betting they did and it just didn't work out for some reason or another. Oh well.

Cheers.

Yes and no..
I'm saying if someone picks up Yuen in rounds 1-5 he had value to that someone (and likely others). If he had value that much value it is impossible that Chevy considered all options because he could have dealt the player to that team for less than what they obviously valued Yuen at but more then what Chevy got by letting Yuen walk.

It's not a difficult jump in conclusion.

Bye.

 

[King Woodballs]

No...

If the other party is not willing to negotiate in a timely manner you get what you can.
It has nothing to do with MY personal assessment of value or heck even Chevy's assessment of value but simple asset management.

If it looks like you are getting no value from the asset one way, then try another. If someone takes Yuen early, then obviously either Chevy dropped the ball by not looking or dropped the ball by not putting a negotiating deadline early enough to give him the freedom to look.

It may not even matter, as maybe Yuen goes in a late round because there is no interest or heck maybe he doesn't even get re-drafted. In this case maybe Chevy did look and there was nothing.

Fair point

however, what if Chevy tried trading him and no one wanted too?

We don't know that at this point either

 

[pucka lucka]

Fair point

however, what if Chevy tried trading him and no one wanted too?

We don't know that at this point either

Of course that's possible. No one is saying it isn't. We are speculating because Chevy didn't inform us. We don't have complete information so we do our best to break it down. Apparently when garret puts time into thoughtful analysis he's irrational.

 

[cheswick]

Fair point

however, what if Chevy tried trading him and no one wanted too?

We don't know that at this point either

I see no trade value in Yuen. Can anyone tell me how often a low round unsigned prospect on the verge of re-entering the draft is dealt for something?

 

[garret9]

I see no trade value in Yuen. Can anyone tell me how often a low round unsigned prospect on the verge of re-entering the draft is dealt for something?

Be tough to tell because you wouldn't know.
A GM may have tried negotiating the ELC at any point after they are drafted, not get what they wanted and trade the prospect.
So any unsigned prospect traded could *potentially* be that case... although closer they are to the dead-line, the more likely the case.

My guess is rare though... but that's without confirming


I'm not sure if Yuen has trade value or not... which was my whole point of my earlier discussion.
If he goes earlier than a 6th round pick, he did have some value, even if barely. If he doesn't, then most likely not.

 

[King Woodballs]

I see no trade value in Yuen. Can anyone tell me how often a low round unsigned prospect on the verge of re-entering the draft is dealt for something?

I personally agree with you.
I really don't he has much value
But there are others that think otherwise.

 

[King Woodballs]

Be tough to tell because you wouldn't know.
A GM may have tried negotiating the ELC at any point after they are drafted, not get what they wanted and trade the prospect.
So any unsigned prospect could *potentially* be that case... although closer they are to the dead-line, the more likely the case.

You don't even know if there was even a market to trade Yuen too.

 

[allan5oh]

Fair point

however, what if Chevy tried trading him and no one wanted too?

We don't know that at this point either

Again that's only ok if he goes very late in the draft. You guys keep going in circles over and over again. It's getting annoying.

There's no way he had zero trade value if he goes earlier than say the 6th round. That means someone would surely pay a 6th or so for him to take him off our hands. If a team really wanted him, they wouldn't let him go back into the draft. That's not how it works.

The reality is if management thought he would be an NHLer or not is irrelevant, there's almost no way to know at that age, and even if they think he won't make it he still has value. That value has evaporated.

If they have an issue with his size, why did they move up to pick him? That makes zero sense.

It's extremely rare that a team with lots of contract space would let a prospect like that walk. Even if we can't sign him, we should be able to trade him. If we can't trade him, then he shouldn't go until the 6th or 7th round or at all.

Rick Ralph talked about this yesterday, and he made it seem too simple. His argument was what if management thought he wasn't going to pan out, and lots of people were upset. We're not upset that he let an NHL ready prospect walk, we're upset that we let a mid level prospect walk and got nothing in return. This team cannot afford these type of bungles.