Your theory of the Sharks slow downturn

[TheHockeyRant]

Personally I think it is very very simple. The Sharks immediately got worse right after 2011 when they traded Setoguchi, Heatley and Coyle.

Eventually Ryane Clowe was lost as well and three top six forwards were gone. None of these top six have been replaced. NONE.

In 2011, Pavelski and Couture were already putting up 50 point seasons. At this point their elevated point totals are simply replacing the decling point totals of Thornton and Marleau.

When Setoguchi and Heatley were traded the Sharks lost over 100 combined points between the two. Add Clowe and that is over 150 points.

Havlat and Galiardi never panned out and so far the BEST replacement was surprisingly Burns with his 48 points in 2014, but that only replaces one player.

Combine Hertl, Wingels and Nieto today. They don't even crack 100 together. A drop of that magnitude significantly hurt the Sharks offensively and forced them to rely on an already thin defense which has only gotten worse.

Where do they go from here? Well I only hope these young guns and future Dmen pan out otherwise it's going to be a long couple of years.

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[Hatrick Marleau]

I agree with you on the point that the Sharks never replaced the top 6 forwards they lost but don't agree that the Sharks went downhill after they traded Setoguchi, Heatley, and Coyle. Two of those aren't even in the league anymore. Coyle isn't producing like a top 6 forward and Clowe was already going downhill before we traded him. You're comparing Hertl, Nieto, and Wingels to guys who were still in their prime in 2011. Hertl and Nieto are playing in their 2nd season and are just 21 and 22. Wingels is a solid/very good 3rd liner but isn't a top 6 forward. The last two years, this team was arguably better than any of their previous years. They just ran into a very good LA team back to back years who have won 2 of the last 3 Stanley Cups. They took LA to a game 7 both years too. If they get the bounces maybe they win a cup one of those last 2 years. This team went downhill last offseason when they overreacted.

 

[znrch]

The Sharks were a very good team in a very good Western Conference.

 

[TheHockeyRant]

I agree with you on the point that the Sharks never replaced the top 6 forwards they lost but don't agree that the Sharks went downhill after they traded Setoguchi, Heatley, and Coyle. Two of those aren't even in the league anymore. Coyle isn't producing like a top 6 forward and Clowe was already going downhill before we traded him. You're comparing Hertl, Nieto, and Wingels to guys who were still in their prime in 2011. Hertl and Nieto are playing in their 2nd season and are just 21 and 22. Wingels is a solid/very good 3rd liner but isn't a top 6 forward. The last two years, this team was arguably better than any of their previous years. They just ran into a very good LA team back to back years who have won 2 of the last 3 Stanley Cups. They took LA to a game 7 both years too. If they get the bounces maybe they win a cup one of those last 2 years. This team went downhill last offseason when they overreacted.

The one thing you have to take into consideration is that Heatley and Setoguchi got into injury trouble AFTER leaving San Jose which is part of the reason why they are no longer in the NHL. Heater did have a small hand injury in SJ but it was nothing major. Clowe obviously got into injury trouble due to his style of play.

But you are right the combination of a lack of foresight in trading away two top six forwards and Coyle while not getting one in return (cough Havlat) weighed down the team.

That and the ridiculous amount of distractions off the ice.

 

[Hatrick Marleau]

The one thing you have to take into consideration is that Heatley and Setoguchi got into injury trouble AFTER leaving San Jose which is part of the reason why they are no longer in the NHL. Heater did have a small hand injury in SJ but it was nothing major. Clowe obviously got into injury trouble due to his style of play.

But you are right the combination of a lack of foresight in trading away two top six forwards and Coyle while not getting one in return (cough Havlat) weighed down the team.

That and the ridiculous amount of distractions off the ice.

Yeah but Heatley was already going downhill the year before we traded him and Setoguchi hadn't been coming close his 33 goal career year.

If you think about the team we had last year. If Torres doesn't get his knee blown out in the preseason and Dustin Brown doesn't blow out Hertl's knee last, the forward core the Sharks would've had would have been amazing.

Hertl Jumbo Burns
Marleau Couture Nieto/Havlat
Torres Pavs Wingels
Sheppard Desi Kennedy

That was probably best in the league. And if we don't lose Vlasic for the LA series, we probably win. In order to win a Stanley Cup, you have to be good and get the bounces. Last years team was the best Sharks team ever IMO.

 

[Bizz]

The Sharks immediately got worse right after 2011 when they traded Setoguchi, Heatley and Coyle.

who has DW picked up since then?

Torres has barely played 30 regular season games since being traded for, TK wasn't used that often, Burish was a failure, Colin White was a failure, Winnik bolted after a dozen games, Galiardi was a failure, Stuart was garbage, Sheppard was okay, Gomez didn't do much, Hannan has been terrible, Brown is garbage, and LOL John Scott.

that's DW's body of work the last 4 years. Better GMs have been fired in less time.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

Good teams eventually hit a lull. How they come back from it is key. It isn't one person's fault. You win as a team and you lose as a team.

 

[Gene Parmesan]

who has DW picked up since then?

Torres has barely played 30 regular season games since being traded for, TK wasn't used that often, Burish was a failure, Colin White was a failure, Winnik bolted after a dozen games, Galiardi was a failure, Stuart was garbage, Sheppard was okay, Gomez didn't do much, Hannan has been terrible, Brown is garbage, and LOL John Scott.

that's DW's body of work the last 4 years. Better GMs have been fired in less time.

Like who? Back up your claim.

 

[TheHockeyRant]

Yeah but Heatley was already going downhill the year before we traded him and Setoguchi hadn't been coming close his 33 goal career year.

If you think about the team we had last year. If Torres doesn't get his knee blown out in the preseason and Dustin Brown doesn't blow out Hertl's knee last, the forward core the Sharks would've had would have been amazing.

Hertl Jumbo Burns
Marleau Couture Nieto/Havlat
Torres Pavs Wingels
Sheppard Desi Kennedy

That was probably best in the league. And if we don't lose Vlasic for the LA series, we probably win. In order to win a Stanley Cup, you have to be good and get the bounces. Last years team was the best Sharks team ever IMO.

Best ever...hell no. Last year was very flukey. Every young player exceeded expectations and a bunch had career years such as Pavs, Wingels, Sheppard, Desi, Braun etc. How often do multiple players have career years and almost every single prospect exceeds expectations? Top 3 Sharks teams easily 09-11.
2014 was very similar to 2004, a flukey team that relied on young guns.

 

[TheHockeyRant]

who has DW picked up since then?

Torres has barely played 30 regular season games since being traded for, TK wasn't used that often, Burish was a failure, Colin White was a failure, Winnik bolted after a dozen games, Galiardi was a failure, Stuart was garbage, Sheppard was okay, Gomez didn't do much, Hannan has been terrible, Brown is garbage, and LOL John Scott.

that's DW's body of work the last 4 years. Better GMs have been fired in less time.

When your best free agent signing is a guy who has played under 30 games in 3 seasons something is terribly wrong.
Well I guess Karlsson counts as FA signing so...hey that makes two.

 

[Led Zappa]

Best ever...hell no. Last year was very flukey. Every young player exceeded expectations and a bunch had career years such as Pavs, Wingels, Sheppard, Desi, Braun etc. How often do multiple players have career years and almost every single prospect exceeds expectations? Top 3 Sharks teams easily 09-11.
2014 was very similar to 2004, a flukey team that relied on young guns.

No Torres, No Hertl (Then 1/2 a Hertl), Vlasic taken out.

Way to pick and choose.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You've posted this same article quite a few times now, or at least, said this same thing about heatley/setoguchi. It's incredibly wrong, has been proven so before, and is about to be proven so again.

The defense in 2011 was a prime Dan Boyle (fairly better than brent burns), Douglas Murray, Jason Demers, Vlasic, Ian White, and Niclas wallin. That defense is far from great, but it's also better than what we're icing today.
Boyle>Burns
White>Dillon
Vlasic=Vlasic
Demers<Braun
Wallin>Hannan (Yes, really. He was bad, but, still better than Hannan.)
Murray>Irwin (See above.)

The defense is significantly worse right now. Our top players are 4 years older and, while still good, have regressed a bit aside from Pavelski. Hertl, Nieto, Wingels, and Karlsson are good additions but right now I don't think any of them look like the type of guys you would want in your top-6 if you want to win a Stanley cup.

Wilson just hasn't really done anything to help the team. The acquisitions he's made (kennedy, McGinn, Hannan, Winnik, Handzus, C. White) to better the team havent really helped. He hasn't acquired a top-6 forward or top-4 defenseman since burns. Every single cup winning team has at least 1 or 2 fairly new acquisitions that help them win. If you aren't constantly improving your team, then you're constantly making your team worse. That is the nature of the modern day NHL. Look at every recent cup winner and for each of them, there was at least one serious acquisition that put them over the top. Gaborik, Oduya/Roszival, Carter/Scuderi/Williams, Kaberle, Hossa, Gill/Scuderi. That spans back over the last 6 cup winners. When was the last time DW acquired a player of that caliber? The Brent Burns trade. The year of that trade, though, the team system completely fell apart. All he did that off season was fix the assistant coaching and sign brad Stuart, thinking he would fix the PK.

The NHL is extremely competitive. Every gm wants to win and most of those gms are willing to sacrifice the future for an impact player if it means winning. Wilson used to try and fix the team every off-season/TDL but since the Burns trade, every player he has acquired has fallen short of being an impact player. Brad Stuart was a top-4 defenseman and fit the category for about 20 games before absolutely falling off a cliff and quickly dropping to a replacement level player before the season had even ended.

 

[boylerroom]

I think our window simply passed. The best years this franchise had to win was 2008-2011.

DW made deadline moves and bolstered this team as much as he could, but this team just didn't, couldn't get it done.

Now our stars are older and the cubboards are bare. It's commendable imo the job our front office has done scouting and drafting to get quality guys like Hertl, Goldobin, Neito, etc, where we did. Otherwise we'd be even more thin.

This is why I have little emotional connection or loyalty to 19 and 12. I love those guys, but at the end of the day they didn't get it done.

Looking back I feel like DW did everything he could to support this team during this window and it was THE PLAYERS failed.

 

[CanadienShark]

I agree with you on the point that the Sharks never replaced the top 6 forwards they lost but don't agree that the Sharks went downhill after they traded Setoguchi, Heatley, and Coyle. Two of those aren't even in the league anymore. Coyle isn't producing like a top 6 forward and Clowe was already going downhill before we traded him. You're comparing Hertl, Nieto, and Wingels to guys who were still in their prime in 2011. Hertl and Nieto are playing in their 2nd season and are just 21 and 22. Wingels is a solid/very good 3rd liner but isn't a top 6 forward. The last two years, this team was arguably better than any of their previous years. They just ran into a very good LA team back to back years who have won 2 of the last 3 Stanley Cups. They took LA to a game 7 both years too. If they get the bounces maybe they win a cup one of those last 2 years. This team went downhill last offseason when they overreacted.

I totally agree. I'd say Wingels is a legit tweener though, he's a capable top 6 guy in the right role, but is certainly a better fit for the 3rd line.

Yeah but Heatley was already going downhill the year before we traded him and Setoguchi hadn't been coming close his 33 goal career year.

If you think about the team we had last year. If Torres doesn't get his knee blown out in the preseason and Dustin Brown doesn't blow out Hertl's knee last, the forward core the Sharks would've had would have been amazing.

Hertl Jumbo Burns
Marleau Couture Nieto/Havlat
Torres Pavs Wingels
Sheppard Desi Kennedy

That was probably best in the league. And if we don't lose Vlasic for the LA series, we probably win. In order to win a Stanley Cup, you have to be good and get the bounces. Last years team was the best Sharks team ever IMO.

You're on a roll. Agreed.

 

[CanadienShark]

Boyle>Burns
White>Dillon
Vlasic=Vlasic
Demers<Braun
Wallin>Hannan (Yes, really. He was bad, but, still better than Hannan.)
Murray>Irwin (See above.)

I don't think Vlasic was as good then as he is today.

I think our window simply passed. The best years this franchise had to win was 2008-2011.

DW made deadline moves and bolstered this team as much as he could, but this team just didn't, couldn't get it done.

Now our stars are older and the cubboards are bare. It's commendable imo the job our front office has done scouting and drafting to get quality guys like Hertl, Goldobin, Neito, etc, where we did. Otherwise we'd be even more thin.

This is why I have little emotional connection or loyalty to 19 and 12. I love those guys, but at the end of the day they didn't get it done.

Looking back I feel like DW did everything he could to support this team during this window and it was THE PLAYERS failed.

I think DW still failed insofar as he had a GREAT team multiple times. He also had obvious or clear holes on the roster, which he didn't address even when he had the chances and assets to. I blame that on DW, more so than the players we have/had failing to cover up the weaknesses DW wouldn't fix himself (but should have). For example, last year's LHD depth. It was obvious. Everyone and everyone knew that if you took out Vlasic, the Sharks were done. I yelled on the plane ride home when Stoll hit Vlasic. Spoke to the guy next to me about how we were done. He kept saying "the Sharks are still up man, don't worry" but I was insistent that the series was over once Vlasic was out. It was such a MASSIVE and OBVIOUS hole that I blame DW more than the players.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Defense.

 

[Beaviz81]

Age and complaciency to be honest.

 

[stator]

Defense and mediocre goalie performance.

 

[slappipappi]

I think our window simply passed. The best years this franchise had to win was 2008-2011.

DW made deadline moves and bolstered this team as much as he could, but this team just didn't, couldn't get it done.

Now our stars are older and the cubboards are bare. It's commendable imo the job our front office has done scouting and drafting to get quality guys like Hertl, Goldobin, Neito, etc, where we did. Otherwise we'd be even more thin.

This is why I have little emotional connection or loyalty to 19 and 12. I love those guys, but at the end of the day they didn't get it done.

Looking back I feel like DW did everything he could to support this team during this window and it was THE PLAYERS failed.

This.

The Sharks best players were simply not as good, when it mattered, as the other contender's best players.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

This.

The Sharks best players were simply not as good, when it mattered, as the other contender's best players.

Its been a heck of a decade though. Its hard to think about going back to the quality level of the early years of the franchise. The new owner has deep pockets though... I think it is going to take a GM that can work more magic than what DW has been able to do.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

who has DW picked up since then?

Torres has barely played 30 regular season games since being traded for, TK wasn't used that often, Burish was a failure, Colin White was a failure, Winnik bolted after a dozen games, Galiardi was a failure, Stuart was garbage, Sheppard was okay, Gomez didn't do much, Hannan has been terrible, Brown is garbage, and LOL John Scott.

that's DW's body of work the last 4 years. Better GMs have been fired in less time.

Dont forget Havlat, the biggest mistake Wilson has made as GM.

 

[Alwalys]

Well, the sharks were in trouble once the cap kicked in. They were a team building to a peak, but lost the ability to spend to get "over the top" as other teams had in the seasons leading up to the cap. At the same time they were too good to get the top picks that would be invaluable once the cap kicked in.

If you look at the teams that are good now, it's teams that were languishing near the bottom at the time of the implementation of the cap.

 

[LeftHeartInSF]

Well, the sharks were in trouble once the cap kicked in. They were a team building to a peak, but lost the ability to spend to get "over the top" as other teams had in the seasons leading up to the cap. At the same time they were too good to get the top picks that would be invaluable once the cap kicked in.

If you look at the teams that are good now, it's teams that were languishing near the bottom at the time of the implementation of the cap.

The Winnepeg Jets are doing better than us

 

[Linkster]

(1) Wilson built a Cup Contender "window" for his core players. It was open for quite a few years.

(2) Wilson made trade deadline deals that sent out "future" assets (picks & prospects) in exchange for missing pieces, or "the cavalry."

(3) The cavalry got ambushed. There were no survivors.

(4) The "future" is now.

 

[TheDanceOfMaternity]

The sharks from 09-11 would destroy the team today. What the hell am I reading about this possibly not being true? Those were the only years this team was legitimately built to win a cup. Ever. I bet most people who have been using this forum for 8+ years would agree as well.