GDT: Your New Jersey Devils vs. San Jose Sharks, 7 PM, MSGSN

[MadDevil]

But this is not an accurate portrayal of the dichotomy. From my observations almost all of us that are extremely critical of this D also recognize goaltending is not very good.

There are several posters who routinely imply that our defense doesn’t have significant problems and simply getting a better goaltender fixes the GA issue enough for the D to not be a concern. I’m sorry but this take is wildly wrong.

The amount of people who think a goalie fixes everything are much less than your making it seem, but this is how you like to argue. You take a small group of people who have an opinion, blow it out of proportion, then sit back and act like the voice of reason for having the courage to go against the majority.

I don't think asking a league average goalie to not be a useless sack of shit that gives up every dangerous chance he faces is unreasonable. I also don't think asking the defense to tighten shit up is unreasonable either. Both need to be better, and I think a majority of this place would agree. But carry on...

 

[forceten]

Every goalie should play in AHL. You never know how new goalie will show himself in the new environment. And even good ahl performance show mostly nothing. We can’t wait even 1B and I think 2A situation from goalies outside NHL. But we can find ahl starter easily with potential to try him in Nhl.

I will start with my two traditional candidates.

Thank you for this wonderful write-up. It sounds like there are some candidates to look at, but that it's not so easy to translate success at the KHL level for goalies to the NHL level and you'd want to see them try the AHL first to get a better sense, which means:

1. It won't be immediate help;
2. It will be difficult to convince a solid, satisfied KHL player to join an AHL tryout essentially; and
3. To get someone NOW would cost a ton for limited potential of success (e.g., have to buy them from their team and why would their team do that if they're doing well)

Ugggggg!

 

[billingtons ghost]

This is where I agree with guyvic...we can all agree the goalies have been rancid bad - but few people care to look at WHY have two goalies who were above average to average for the most part last year (and in Vitek's case the rest of his career) all of a sudden now 1980's NHL caliber? I'm sure it has nothing to do with everything around them objectively being much worse this year than last year.

You can explain Vitek away with mental issues maybe, but then what's the excuse for Schmid also wildly regressing? Or Blackwood and every other goalie that's come around the last few years?

Obviously you're preaching to the choir for me. It's pretty obvious from last year's winning and losing streaks that there's a cycle:
1. We go on win streak and feel invincible(undefeated in preseason)
2. Get arrogant and start to try to win on talent alone making low percentage plays and sacrificing the simple play and structure
3. We start to give up lots of chances of get pinned down. Defensemen try to do too much and get exposed.
4. Goalie play plummets bc everything coming at them is nondeterministic and not the boring stuff goalies train for with angles
5. Losing streak commences and lengthens
6. Bag skates, practices, people get tired of losing. Players simplify their game and some get scared of being benched or dealt.
7. Winning streak commences after we get a big save or two or just get some bounces and people (like Marino, Timo, Siegs) settle back into their game.

I'm sure that just about none of our players feel like they are playing the game the right way. When that changes we will win again and the goalies and their stats will suddenly look above average.

Either that or the injury to Dougie and rookie mistake chaos destabilizes our backline suffice to keep Siegs and Marino playing down to bottom pair levels.... But I'm pulling for the good thing.

 

[RSeen]

This board would have ripped Ruff if he started Vitek tonight, and we inevitably lost because Vitek didn't make the saves that Schmid was not able to make.

Schmid faced nearly 50 shots the night before. If he faced half that, there is some validity to that answer but in this situation given the volume he faced, I do not agree with you.

Vitek very well could have lost us the game but I think it is more likely than not he would have allowed 3 or less goals.

It is an indefensible decision given the context of the Philly game.

I am not a Ruff hater and do not support firing him, but this loss is on him IMO.

 

[NJDevs26]

The amount of people who think a goalie fixes everything are much less than your making it seem, but this is how you like to argue. You take a small group of people who have an opinion, blow it out of proportion, then sit back and act like the voice of reason for having the courage to go against the majority.

I don't think asking a league average goalie to not be a useless sack of shit that gives up every dangerous chance he faces is unreasonable. I also don't think asking the defense to tighten shit up is unreasonable either. Both need to be better, and I think a majority of this place would agree. But carry on...

No it really isn’t…at the very least the average goalie fixes everything choir is a loud minority but problem is the goalies have been so bad everyone else who’s underachieved has been able to draft right behind them in terms of turning a critical eye whether it’s Siegs, Mercer, Timo, even Bratt lately, whoever

 

[guitarguyvic]

The amount of people who think a goalie fixes everything are much less than your making it seem, but this is how you like to argue. You take a small group of people who have an opinion, blow it out of proportion, then sit back and act like the voice of reason for having the courage to go against the majority.

I don't think asking a league average goalie to not be a useless sack of shit that gives up every dangerous chance he faces is unreasonable. I also don't think asking the defense to tighten shit up is unreasonable either. Both need to be better, and I think a majority of this place would agree. But carry on...

What are you talking about? I’m not claiming the whole board has this opinion. I’m responding to the specific posters who do though. Not sure what your problem is. By the sounds of it you and I are mostly on the same page, the only difference maybe being that I believe there’s a much more symbiotic relationship between the performance of the D and the goalie performance, whereas you seem to be looking at them like they are two completely separate things that could be improved in some significant way independently.

 

[Bleedred]

#FireRogalski

I know goalie coaches aren’t fired midseason, but this is the safest firing you can make right now.

Firing Ruff only leads to going out there with ill-competent Travis Green having full reign. That’s exactly like going from Hynes to Nasreddine. The bottom has potential to really fall out under him.

I honestly think Green may be a worse head coach than Nasreddine, that’s how worthless that guy is.

Unless they think they can hire Evason, but not sure if he’ll stifle offense. But he has way more talent here than he did in Minnesota to score goals.

He’s also the head coach that force fed the modern day Marty over Cory fiasco in Minnesota with making Fleury happen over Gustavsson who had Vezina caliber number last year.

But their team was the only reason Fleury even looked anything remotely close to an NHL caliber goalie at all last year.

So I don’t know much about Evason. I only bring him up because he’s the only name out there with experience and because he’s better than Travis Green, because almost everyone is better than Travis Green.

Who isn’t better than Travis Green? Doug Weight?

 

[NJDevs26]

Schmid faced nearly 50 shots the night before. If he faced half that, there is some validity to that answer but in this situation given the volume he faced, I do not agree with you.

Vitek very well could have lost us the game but I think it is more likely than not he would have allowed 3 or less goals.

It is an indefensible decision given the context of the Philly game.

I am not a Ruff hater and do not support firing him, but this loss is on him IMO.

And yes I do think that after all the times Lindy sat Schmid when he should have played him, it’s ridiculous that a back to back after a 50 shot game coming in on a three game winning streak…NOW we push the envelope?! Maybe they were just afraid the first goal against Vitek would get shit from the crowd but if you can’t play him last night why is he not on phantom IR?

 

[Whaddagoal]

Obviously you're preaching to the choir for me. It's pretty obvious from last year's winning and losing streaks that there's a cycle:
1. We go on win streak and feel invincible(undefeated in preseason)
2. Get arrogant and start to try to win on talent alone making low percentage plays and sacrificing the simple play and structure
3. We start to give up lots of chances of get pinned down. Defensemen try to do too much and get exposed.
4. Goalie play plummets bc everything coming at them is nondeterministic and not the boring stuff goalies train for with angles
5. Losing streak commences and lengthens
6. Bag skates, practices, people get tired of losing. Players simplify their game and some get scared of being benched or dealt.
7. Winning streak commences after we get a big save or two or just get some bounces and people (like Marino, Timo, Siegs) settle back into their game.

I'm sure that just about none of our players feel like they are playing the game the right way. When that changes we will win again and the goalies and their stats will suddenly look above average.

Either that or the injury to Dougie and rookie mistake chaos destabilizes our backline suffice to keep Siegs and Marino playing down to bottom pair levels.... But I'm pulling for the good thing.

This post resonates with me as well. They played last night as if they don't want to play the system or they don't want to make the simple plays. Too many individual efforts and forced passes that seem more heroic than rational. I know Jack can make those plays but it wasn't the night to force feed turnover.

No forwards covering or very late to cover when the Ds are pinching and rushes to the other way. It's not just yesterday, but it's been a pattern more specifically this season than last.

Also at a fan level, I wish they'd save these shit games for the road and at least win at home. If they have to play like shit, let's not have so many home losses to bottom teams.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Prove it. You can't. Thats why I have no desire to continue this. You're just talking to talk.

Which do you think is more accurate- the Devils give up way more odd man rushes/breakaways than literally ANY OTHER TEAM, or maybe, because you watch the Devils every night, you kind of have a skewed opinion on that just a little bit? I won't claim to watch every single game because nobody can, but from what I see in other games when I watch, there are odd man rushes and breakaways just as much as there are in our games. And this is backed up by the advanced statistics of high-danger chances. and yeah, I know, I know you hate that stat, etc. Thats why I am done with this argument. You "trust your eyes".

Have a great day.

For a real switch, you're in here completely not understanding quality vs quantity.

Does it really matter how many they give up when it takes one to win a game, or if every high danger chance they give up is 10x more dangerous than a typical one is recorded?

What is easier for a goalie as far as decision making? Any of the 42 shots Schmid faced two nights ago, all of Kahkonnen's chances last night, or the blizzard Duclair pop fly thing that everyone's killing Schmid for this morning.

You seem to easily forget all of the bizarre ways Blackwood and our 7 headed goalie monster gave up goals when the team was playing like this two years ago with Subban and Smith back there.

Trust your stats like hdsf is the be all, end all.

It's like winning a completion % stat in football. You're going to lose if every completion for you is for five yards and every completion for your opponent is for 50yds in the air and a touchdown.

But cling to your 'I pRoooVeD It wUtH stAts'

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I don't have much interest in responding to the guy who says Cory Schneider sucked, so yeah. Have a good one!

 

[Bleedred]

And yes I do think that after all the times Lindy sat Schmid when he should have played him, it’s ridiculous that a back to back after a 50 shot game coming in on a three game winning streak…NOW we push the envelope?!

It was almost like he was setting him up to fail with this one. And he certainly didn’t hold back on calling him out in the presser. He’s rarely called Vitek out like that other than “he probably could have had one or two of those” or “well there were 2 or 3 he didn’t have any chance on” in a game he gave up 4 or 5. There was also the “he gave up that one from the bench so I had to take him out” comment in the Washington game.

It almost felt like a “See! I told you he f***in sucks. That’s why he doesn’t play more than V! I gave you people what you wanted and he lost the game for us! Back to the bench he goes until the next back to back! You’ll get V and you’ll love it! And Rogalski and I will eventually be fired over it!”.

It was a weirdo decision. I thought he should have done it last week, when Schmid played 28 hours before (and not 24) in the same building and not after travel. We ran Buffalo out of the building, so it didn’t matter, but we were also really in a bad way and not on a 3 game winning streak with momentum.

That momentum feels gone after a loss at home to the Sharks that ended a three game winning streak that started after a loss to Sharks East at home……

 

[guitarguyvic]

Prove it. You can't. Thats why I have no desire to continue this. You're just talking to talk.

Which do you think is more accurate- the Devils give up way more odd man rushes/breakaways than literally ANY OTHER TEAM, or maybe, because you watch the Devils every night, you kind of have a skewed opinion on that just a little bit? I won't claim to watch every single game because nobody can, but from what I see in other games when I watch, there are odd man rushes and breakaways just as much as there are in our games. And this is backed up by the advanced statistics of high-danger chances. and yeah, I know, I know you hate that stat, etc. Thats why I am done with this argument. You "trust your eyes".

Have a great day.

Seriously? You’re right I can’t prove it because right now for whatever reason no one officially publicly tracks things like odd man rushes and breakaways and scoring chances off of uncontested cross ice feeds specifically. All that stuff gets lumped in with other scoring chances based on nothing other than location. So no I can’t prove it…but for these specific types of chances you can’t prove it from the other side either for the same reasons.

The good news is that these specific types of chances don’t happen frequently enough in a game and are obvious enough that it’s not particularly difficult to keep track of them generally if you’re watching. And if you’re watching and can see the devils generally give up more than they get, then either their ability to generate them is below average or their propensity to give them up is above average.

This really isn’t that complicated.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Blackwood and Kahkonen are .769 and .791 on high danger chances both with an xSV% of .635 per moneypuck.

Vitek is .568 (.633 expected), Schmid is .679 (.697 expected). Someone, please, with a straight face, tell me we’re making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is.

 

[billingtons ghost]

And yes I do think that after all the times Lindy sat Schmid when he should have played him, it’s ridiculous that a back to back after a 50 shot game coming in on a three game winning streak…NOW we push the envelope?! Maybe they were just afraid the first goal against Vitek would get shit from the crowd but if you can’t play him last night why is he not on phantom IR?

23 year old playing back to back early in the season after having sat most games? Lots of coaches riding single goalies out there. Fifty shot games are not all equal and he didn't have to turn himself inside out... That was a pretty easy night.

I'm sure Lindy asked him if he was good to go .. not that Schmid would turn down a start.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Blackwood and Kahkonen are .769 and .791 on high danger chances both with an xSV% of .635 per moneypuck.

Vitek is .568 (.633 expected), Schmid is .679 (.697 expected). Someone, please, with a straight face, tell me we’re making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is.

We are making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is bc San Jose has no talent and their sole chance at winning is blocking shots and keeping things to the outside and deterministic so their goalies just have to do what they are trained to do.

We had 100+ shot attempts last night and 50+ something of them never made it to the goalie.

Also % stats like that are ridiculous, bc
1 SJ gives up a bazillion shots. Of course their % is better
2 high danger is a goofy weak deconstructed stat based upon distance and angles. Hockey doesn't work like that.

Ooh shot from five feet out! Should have scored.

 

[Camille the Eel]

"My system is fine. The players just need to execute better".

Idk Lindy...maybe if the players are still struggling, tweak it..simplify it? Anyone can just say they need to do better. And yes, I realize that's just interview talk but like, it's still an issue, so clearly there has been 0 changes from Ruff's side.

an adjustment at coaching level is needed I think. Keep one D in front of the net at all times. Maybe go to a 1 - 3 - 1 in the neutral zone like Los Angeles or the Rangers. Something simple where even with two rookies playing big minutes on D, everyone will know what’s expected of them. With all of the injuries and different guys in and out of the lineup every night and line juggling, maybe something of the kind is needed. There’s lots of season to go and time to adjust.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We are making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is bc San Jose has no talent and their sole chance at winning is blocking shots and keeping things to the outside and deterministic so their goalies just have to do what they are trained to do.

We had 100+ shot attempts last night and 50+ something of them never made it to the goalie.

Also % stats like that are ridiculous, bc
1 SJ gives up a bazillion shots. Of course their % is better
2 high danger is a goofy weak deconstructed stat based upon distance and angles. Hockey doesn't work like that.

Ooh shot from five feet out! Should have scored.

This is just completely ridiculous and divorced from reality. It’s on the record: you think we are asking more from our goalies than the San Jose Sharks are. That should end the discussion entirely.

The stats are purely from shots on goal from high danger areas, your point about the volume of shot attempts we sent toward their goalie is completely irrelevant. And I’m not talking about one game, not that your point even makes a lick of sense even when talking about that one game.

 

[Bleedred]

Blackwood and Kahkonen are .769 and .791 on high danger chances both with an xSV% of .635 per moneypuck.

Vitek is .568 (.633 expected), Schmid is .679 (.697 expected). Someone, please, with a straight face, tell me we’re making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is.

They do have a better goalie coach than us.

Evgeni Nabokov is probably better than……….Dave Rogalski……….

Never mind, forgot he isn’t goalie coach anymore. I can’t even remember if he’s still in some other role in the organization or not. Sometimes a goalie coach is promoted by being appointed “head of goaltending whatever” like Bill Ranford with the Kings.

 

[Offseason Champs]

Rogalski should tell both goalies to just have a .900 save percentage or better. Not sure what our coaches are doing.

 

[billingtons ghost]

This is just completely ridiculous and divorced from reality. It’s on the record: you think we are asking more from our goalies than the San Jose Sharks are. That should end the discussion entirely.

The stats are purely from shots on goal from high danger areas, your point about the volume of shot attempts we sent toward their goalie is completely irrelevant. And I’m not talking about one game, not that your point even makes a lick of sense even when talking about that one game.

Let me rephrase the question:
Which team last night played a more goalie-friendly game?

High danger chance counts and win o meters will say something other than the truth.

 

[Guadana]

Thank you for this wonderful write-up. It sounds like there are some candidates to look at, but that it's not so easy to translate success at the KHL level for goalies to the NHL level and you'd want to see them try the AHL first to get a better sense, which means:

1. It won't be immediate help;
2. It will be difficult to convince a solid, satisfied KHL player to join an AHL tryout essentially; and
3. To get someone NOW would cost a ton for limited potential of success (e.g., have to buy them from their team and why would their team do that if they're doing well)

Ugggggg!

Translating success for everywhere to nhl is a very different task. I would say its more on psychology than on sv%. Ofcourse sv% help.
Even in NHL. Good consistent goalies are minority.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

We are making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is bc San Jose has no talent and their sole chance at winning is blocking shots and keeping things to the outside and deterministic so their goalies just have to do what they are trained to do.

We had 100+ shot attempts last night and 50+ something of them never made it to the goalie.

Also % stats like that are ridiculous, bc
1 SJ gives up a bazillion shots. Of course their % is better
2 high danger is a goofy weak deconstructed stat based upon distance and angles. Hockey doesn't work like that.

Ooh shot from five feet out! Should have scored.

More on this mind blowing post. No one gives up more high danger chances per game than SJ (I thought they were doing a great job keeping things to the outside?). I guess that was just made up.

No one gives up more unblocked shot attempts per game (I thought they were shot blockers extraordinaire?)

The team with the 2nd most high danger chances given up per game? The Blackhawks. But they have the 6th worst HDSV% at .774? I thought a high volume of chances automatically meant higher percentages? Bzzt, wrong.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Blackwood and Kahkonen are .769 and .791 on high danger chances both with an xSV% of .635 per moneypuck.

Vitek is .568 (.633 expected), Schmid is .679 (.697 expected). Someone, please, with a straight face, tell me we’re making things harder on our goalies than San Jose is.

So now Blackwood is better than Vitek, playing for a different team?

I don’t think this citation is disproving anything we are saying lol.

 

[billingtons ghost]

More on this mind blowing post. No one gives up more high danger chances per game than SJ (I thought they were doing a great job keeping things to the outside?). I guess that was just made up.

No one gives up more unblocked shot attempts per game (I thought they were shot blockers extraordinaire?)

The team with the 2nd most high danger chances given up per game? The Blackhawks. But they have the 6th worst HDSV% at .774? I thought a high volume of chances automatically meant higher percentages? Bzzt, wrong.

So you're saying Mackenzie Blackwood is a good goalie now, and if we only had his hdsv instead of our goalies, everything is good with the team? You're hilarious.