They absolutely MUST get Marchand going. Your not winning jack if your No.2 F isn't producing. They trust Heinen defensively so flip him and Marchand. Takes some of the defensive shutdown responsibility away from Marchand and get more out of him offensively.
Marchand - Zacha - Pasta - Offensive line 1
Heinen - Coyle - Debrusk - Shut down line
The Geekie/Frederic line could use an injection of speed so I'd put Beecher up there. Their forecheck has been underwhelming and that's simply not good enough for that line.
Beecher - Geekie - Frederic
Lauko back to line 4 with Boqvist and Brazeau if he's healthy, Maroon if he's not
Lauko - Boqvist - Brazeau/Maroon
For the D, Leafs are going to dictate the match-ups on home ice so I'm rolling Lindholm with McAvoy and leaning on them hard. That's what they are being paid for. This isn't out the wheelhouse for top D-men to play heavy minutes.
Lindholm - McAvoy
Then for Carlo's new partner, I'm going with him and Wotherspoon as I don't want Gryz there with the Leafs once again dictating the match-ups.
Wotherspoon - Carlo
I'm assuming Peeke is out and Forbort is still not an option. So I'm rolling Gryz with Shattenkirk and keeping their minutes to a minimum. We've seen successful playoffs teams do this before where they basically shelter their 3rd pair as much as possible.
I'd re-evaluate the D after Game 4 when back on home ice.
I'd also re-jig the PP and go back to one top loaded unit with a right-shot in the bumper like old times. This should open up the main weapon (Pasta's one-timer) more because you now have two shooting options going right-to-left. I'd roll:
Pasta - left half wall
Geekie - right shot bumper (he's has the best right-shot one-timer after Pasta)
Zacha - left shot down low/net front
Marchand - right shot half wall
McAvoy - top of umbrella
Then for the final 30 seconds go with two D-men and start firing from the point with a stronger net front using Maroon or Brazeau (or even JVR if he was dressed over them)
I'd roll Shattenkirk and Gryz as the two point men so it allows the me to come back with McAvoy-Lindholm as soon as possible when EV play resumes.
I'd probably go with Debrusk and Boqvist as the other two forwards on unit 2. Save Coyle for 5 on 5 defensive match-ups and PK duty.