Salary Cap: Your Armchair GM's at an 81.5M Cap

[tmlfan98]

Signed Joe Thornton and Dylan DeMelo as new additions.

Clifford was the only free agent signing I gave a multi-year deal (4). The rest of the UFAs and RFAs I signed got 1 year deals.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Here is one I did because a wings fan said it was “impossible”.
My premises

1.) we will lose dermott in expansion so might as well dump him now and get something back and focus on a top 3

2.) we will have to get rid of 2 of The 3 forwards. So might as well try to get retention


Moves

1.) kappy/dermott for zacha retained and prospect
2.) AJ for a 2nd
3.) kerfoot for Robertson.

If you're trading Kapanen, AJ, and Kerfoot. Hyman is UFA(and can be resigned after expansion) what is preventing you from going 4/4/1 and protecting Dermott instead of 7/3/1 since you've traded all the 5th+ forwards you would have protected? I guess Zacha would be 5 maybe, though I think I'd still want to protect Dermott.

 

[stickty111]

It means we had basement level goaltending. Source naturalstattrick.com:

2019-2020
xGA/60: 16th
Corsi Against/60: 15th
Shots Against/60: 17th
Scoring Chances Against/60: 18th
HD Corsi Against/60: 17th
---
GA/60: 24th
Scoring Chances GA/60: 26th
Save Percentage: 24th
HD Goals Against/60: 14th
High Danger Save Percentage: 11th

2018-2019
xGA/60: 25th
Corsi Against/60: 30th
Shots Against/60: 29th
Scoring Chances Against/60: 25th
HD Corsi Against/60: 19th
---
GA/60: 19th
Scoring Chance GA/60: 19th
Save Percentage: 7th
HD Goals Against/60: 15th
High Danger Save Percentage: 20th

We essentially did a total 180 from last year. Last year, Andersen/Sparks was bailing out the defense all of the time. They took a bottom 5 defense and essentially took it out of the bottom 10 on their backs. This year, they turned a league average defense (with a ton of injuries no less) and essentially made it bottom 5... And it all had to do with letting in a ton of weak goals consindering their HD save percentage was actually pretty good. Is Andersen entirely to blame? No, but no matter how you slice it he was not up to par at all. Hutch was awful and thankfully was replaced (we should have just kept Sparks but that was out of Dubas' hands). However if Andersen plays like he did the first three years here (our team save percentage was 6th in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018) and Hutch was nothing more than replacement level, we are probably just outside the top 10 in GA even with the injuries. Now that we have Campbell, who should be an above average backup, I expect Andersen to recover enough to get us back to at least a top 10 tandem, which with those 6 defensemen, should hopefully mean we have an above average defensive team.

Thank you. All the numbers and yes even the eye test shows we are an average defensive team under Keefe, and our GA is hurt by the fact Andersen has been awful aside from November.

 

[stickty111]

Honestly, I thought our defense was well below league average, and somehow was masked by above average goaltending at times... though eventually that failed us too. But we are 26th of 31 teams, in GA... I'm not sure that is average defense.

Looking at just GA is such a bad way to evaluate how a team is performing defensively. You should look at the other stats like the post below to get a better indication. For example is a goalie allowing a 195 foot shot on the defence? It's a GA but thats not on the defence.

It means we had basement level goaltending. Source naturalstattrick.com:

2019-2020
xGA/60: 16th
Corsi Against/60: 15th
Shots Against/60: 17th
Scoring Chances Against/60: 18th
HD Corsi Against/60: 17th
---
GA/60: 24th
Scoring Chances GA/60: 26th
Save Percentage: 24th
HD Goals Against/60: 14th
High Danger Save Percentage: 11th

2018-2019
xGA/60: 25th
Corsi Against/60: 30th
Shots Against/60: 29th
Scoring Chances Against/60: 25th
HD Corsi Against/60: 19th
---
GA/60: 19th
Scoring Chance GA/60: 19th
Save Percentage: 7th
HD Goals Against/60: 15th
High Danger Save Percentage: 20th

We essentially did a total 180 from last year. Last year, Andersen/Sparks was bailing out the defense all of the time. They took a bottom 5 defense and essentially took it out of the bottom 10 on their backs. This year, they turned a league average defense (with a ton of injuries no less) and essentially made it bottom 5... And it all had to do with letting in a ton of weak goals consindering their HD save percentage was actually pretty good. Is Andersen entirely to blame? No, but no matter how you slice it he was not up to par at all. Hutch was awful and thankfully was replaced (we should have just kept Sparks but that was out of Dubas' hands). However if Andersen plays like he did the first three years here (our team save percentage was 6th in 2016-2017 and 2017-2018) and Hutch was nothing more than replacement level, we are probably just outside the top 10 in GA even with the injuries. Now that we have Campbell, who should be an above average backup, I expect Andersen to recover enough to get us back to at least a top 10 tandem, which with those 6 defensemen, should hopefully mean we have an above average defensive team.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Trade Kapanen for futures, I think he has decent trade value and I don't think he's a top 6 player

Robertson and Barabanov fight for the 3rd line LW spot in camp

Dermott gets a 1M×1 "show me deal"
Mikheyev 2.5M×2
Gauthier 850K×2
Spezza 800K
Ceci 1.25M×2

Hyman Matthews Marner
Johnsson Tavares Nylander
Robertson/Barabanov Kerfoot Mikheyev
Robertson/Barabanov Spezza Engvall
Gauthier

Muzzin Rielly
Dermott Holl
Sandin Liljegren/Ceci
Marincin/Ceci

Andersen
Campbell

Extremely boring but I think it's realistic and eminently doable

No way Dermott takes 1x1 with Mikheyev making 2.5... more likely the other way around

Ideally I'd like to see both on ~2x2

 

[Kiwi]

No way Dermott takes 1x1 with Mikheyev making 2.5... more likely the other way around

Ideally I'd like to see both on ~2x2

Mikheyev is in a much stronger barging position, he can go back to Russia and had good counting stats over a small sample size

Dermott has been a bottom pairing D with low points totals and nowhere else he can play if he decides to sit, he should be happy he isn't getting a qualifying offer

 

[Legion34]

If you're trading Kapanen, AJ, and Kerfoot. Hyman is UFA(and can be resigned after expansion) what is preventing you from going 4/4/1 and protecting Dermott instead of 7/3/1 since you've traded all the 5th+ forwards you would have protected? I guess Zacha would be 5 maybe, though I think I'd still want to protect Dermott.

actually that’s a great point. Then drop holl and keep dermott. I just galaxy brained the system and had no idea. Well done.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Everybody deserves second chances
Especially when it improves the leafs D
They should sign Voynov

 

[Canada4Gold]

actually that’s a great point. Then drop holl and keep dermott. I just galaxy brained the system and had no idea. Well done.

I don't think I'd trade Holl either for a few reasons. If you did acquire Zacha, I wouldn't value 1 over the other by much really, better to lose 1 than trade 1 to lose the other. We also just resigned Holl to a contract starting next year, he would have been UFA. Trading a player before a UFA contract kicks in is not often not a great look. And 3rd our 3 RHD next year would be Pietrangelo, Holl, and Liljegren. I think I'd keep Holl for the year and if they take him oh well, it gives time for Liljegren to acclimate to the NHL and then potentially move up in 21/22. Dermott also has to play somewhere as well if you keep him too, we'd essentially have 7 NHL D and can afford to lose a Holl. If Holl is who you're losing to expansion then that's not really an issue I'd worry about, you're coming out on the good side of things IMO.

 

[Legion34]

I don't think I'd trade Holl either for a few reasons. If you did acquire Zacha, I wouldn't value 1 over the other by much really, better to lose 1 than trade 1 to lose the other. We also just resigned Holl to a contract starting next year, he would have been UFA. Trading a player before a UFA contract kicks in is not often not a great look. And 3rd our 3 RHD next year would be Pietrangelo, Holl, and Liljegren. I think I'd keep Holl for the year and if they take him oh well, it gives time for Liljegren to acclimate to the NHL and then potentially move up in 21/22. Dermott also has to play somewhere as well if you keep him too, we'd essentially have 7 NHL D and can afford to lose a Holl. If Holl is who you're losing to expansion then that's not really an issue I'd worry about, you're coming out on the good side of things IMO.

sure that’s another option. I personally am putting dermott on the right. He has done it a ton and Babcock is gone. But that could work too

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I haven't followed Carrick at all since he left the organization. He's become quite the AHL player. Probably a AAAA type of player--just by looking at his stat line.

He would be an amazing 1C for the Marlies. He has the defensive ability and physicality which made him a quality player on the Marlies but has added the offense to match.

He may decide to stay in San Diego though. He must have a pretty sweet deal with them.

 

[Canada4Gold]

sure that’s another option. I personally am putting dermott on the right. He has done it a ton and Babcock is gone. But that could work too

I'd try/put Dermott on the right side too so you have another option there besides forcing Liljegren into the top 4 if Holl or Pietrangelo got hurt and perhaps rotate him with Holl some as well. Ideally in a case where we could afford an extra and Pietrangelo I'd run with those 7 and possibly rotate Holl/Dermott/Sandin/Liljegren. In my iteration of this thread where I traded Marner I had Rosen in there as well(and not Liljegren but that was a oversight, should have went 8D instead of 14F) with Dermott on the right.

I just wouldn't see losing 2 years of Holl as that big of a loss to avoid that I'd be happy with that group of 7 or 8 and if we lose Holl then that's an acceptable loss considering the rest of that group.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

View attachment 342970 View attachment 342971

Signed Joe Thornton and Dylan DeMelo as new additions.

Clifford was the only free agent signing I gave a multi-year deal (4). The rest of the UFAs and RFAs I signed got 1 year deals.

Both of those trades absolutely suck for us. We can do a lot better, but it does not really impact the rest of your lineup.

 

[tmlfan98]

Both of those trades absolutely suck for us. We can do a lot better, but it does not really impact the rest of your lineup.

Yeah another pick/prospect should be added to both deals.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Alexander Kerfoot, Andreas Johnsson & Travis Dermott
for
Damon Severson, Miles Wood (750k Ret) & 4th

Years Signed:
Micheyev - 2 years
Clifford - 3 years
Spezza, Polak - 1 year

If Polak doesn't work out, you can bury enough of his contract/trade him to bring up Liljigren

 

[JT AM da real deal]

People thought our defense last year was going to be bottom 10 as well. Turns out it was league average, despite long term injuries to Muzzin, Rielly, Ceci and Dermott.

I can see the Leafs being perfectly satisfied with those 6 defensemen and then entering the "prove-it" market for another couple of guys, similar to Ben Hutton in LA last year. It is going to be tough for a lot of mid-tier UFA's to find places where they get paid good money, but the Leafs can offer them up to 900k on one-way deals to compete with Sandin and Liljegren for a bottom pairing job, and if they can't win it, they still make good money as a primary call up in the AHL.

Our defense was bottom 5 this past year ... we have great forwards and an above average goalie ... but I don't blame you .. you have never seen a top flight defense here in Toronto and no one has since Horton days ... in 4/5 years we will be great again

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Our defense was bottom 5 this past year ... we have great forwards and an above average goalie ... but I don't blame you .. you have never seen a top flight defense here in Toronto and no one has since Horton days ... in 4/5 years we will be great again

I have provided evidence that disputes that, based on number defensive metrics, so what evidence do you have to support your claim? We improved on paper, our metrics improved, we still need a better defensive effort from our forwards but that was definitely not any worse this year than any other in front of Andersen.

The only thing that got worse was our quality of goaltending, which went from top 7 to bottom 7 this past year. No matter what you say about our defense, Andersen was certainly not an "above average" goalie this year. He wasn't even average. He was well below average, with a league worse backup to boot.

That being said, I fully expect Andersen to bounce back, which should make this team extremely competitive next year if this defense can continue to be league average or better. We will have a top 5 offense (challenging for #1) and with a league average defense, we should easily have a top 10, if not even top 5, tandem. I do not think it is unreasonable for a defense of Rielly, Dermott, Muzzin, Holl, Sandin, Liljegren to be league average.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I have provided evidence that disputes that, based on number defensive metrics, so what evidence do you have to support your claim? We improved on paper, our metrics improved, we still need a better defensive effort from our forwards but that was definitely not any worse this year than any other in front of Andersen.

The only thing that got worse was our quality of goaltending, which went from top 7 to bottom 7 this past year. No matter what you say about our defense, Andersen was certainly not an "above average" goalie this year. He wasn't even average. He was well below average, with a league worse backup to boot.

That being said, I fully expect Andersen to bounce back, which should make this team extremely competitive next year if this defense can continue to be league average or better. We will have a top 5 offense (challenging for #1) and with a league average defense, we should easily have a top 10, if not even top 5, tandem. I do not think it is unreasonable for a defense of Rielly, Dermott, Muzzin, Holl, Sandin, Liljegren to be league average.

I don't know why exactly as I really don't pay attention to stats. I totally rely on my eye. and only live at games (TV it is impossible). and what I was taught as a defender and what I see Leaf defenders do. There are so so many little things that defenders can only learn with pro experience. I think it helps too when you think like a defender first. It is not a talent issue right now. It is an experience issue. It is a game management issue. It is a vet training issue. It is vet pairing issue. It is a philosophy of developing defenders. There are lot of things wrong today.

 

[cannucky]

I'm just going to assume I'm way off on the Marner trade and Avs fans would be doubled over laughing by now, but that's not really the point. I'm not here to argue what a Marner return would look like. The point is Marner goes somewhere for futures without much of any cap hit.

Pietrangelo 7 x 9.0
Mikheyev 1 x 1.5
Dermott 3 x 2.0
Faksa 3 x 2.9
Brooks 2 x 750k
Spezza 1 x 700k

View attachment 342902

View attachment 342903

Well you made your point for sure . Doubled over laughing is an understatement , giving Marner to what is probably the best team in the league would be insanity , forget the return , they played half this year missing half their top players on any given night to injury and are still basically a dead heat for the top of the west with St Louis . A healthy Av's team with the addition of Marner just wins the next 3-5 cups .

 

[namttebih]

He would be an amazing 1C for the Marlies. He has the defensive ability and physicality which made him a quality player on the Marlies but has added the offense to match.

He may decide to stay in San Diego though. He must have a pretty sweet deal with them.

If we offer a one way at league min, we can bury the entire amount can't we? Would it cost a roster spot? San Diego is really nice but making 10x your salary is even nicer. I would also assume that the travel would be easier for the Marlies?

 

[The Podium]

RFA
1. Mikheyev 2 years 1.5mill
2. Dermott 2 year 2.25 mill

UFA
1. Spezza 1 year 750k
2. Gudas/Hamonic 3 years 4 mill

Trades
1. Kerfoot to NYR for Lias Andersson + 2020 3rd
- Clears 3.5 mill cap space, gets a market inefficiency in Andersson (recent 7th overall pick, has been solid since his loan to Sweden, may have untapped potential)
Alternative: Johnsson to NYR for K'Andre Miller
- Clears 3.5 mill cap space, get a solid DFD prospect with size

2. Johnsson to ANA for Max Jones
- Adds some size and physicality to the top 9
Alternative: Kerfoot to ANA for Brendan Guhle + 2020 3rd
- Adds a DFD who isnt afraid to play physical and sheds 3.5 mill in cap space

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If we offer a one way at league min, we can bury the entire amount can't we? Would it cost a roster spot? San Diego is really nice but making 10x your salary is even nicer. I would also assume that the travel would be easier for the Marlies?

He was already making 750k playing for San Diego last year. He was under contract with Anaheim.

 

[Funk21]

Everybody deserves second chances
Especially when it improves the leafs D
They should sign Voynov

I don’t disagree with you at all but his starting salary needs to be around two million plus bonus that tops off around 4-4.5. It doesn’t cost assets and he has played with Muzzin. I would do a three year deal too.

Reilly Voynov
Muzzin Liljegren
Sandin Holl

All of a sudden we have a decent D Corps. Look it’s not gonna be top of the league but it certainly middle of the pact and getting better.

 

[namttebih]

He was already making 750k playing for San Diego last year. He was under contract with Anaheim.

Does that count as a contract when he's down on the Gulls?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Does that count as a contract when he's down on the Gulls?

Yes. Anyone on an SPC counts as the 50, but they can be called up to the NHL. AHL contracts do not count against the 50 contract limit.