Yes, the Pens can win. Here's how...

[Luigi Lemieux]

Obviously pens are injured and have looked like poop and are likely to get destroyed.

However, pens have actually been a great possession team this year, being 5th in the NHL in Corsi for % during even strength. Rangers have been a poor possession team (20th in Corsi for %), have relied on a high shooting percentage, and give up more chances than they get.

Granted that probably doesn't reflect the current situation, as the pens were pacing for a 105-110 point season for most of the year, until they collapsed over the past month. If somehow they can channel the way they were playing during the western swing, they have a fighting chance.

 

[JQR]

Obviously pens are injured and have looked like poop and are likely to get destroyed.

However, pens have actually been a great possession team this year, being 5th in the NHL in Corsi for % during even strength. Rangers have been a poor possession team (20th in Corsi for %), have relied on a high shooting percentage, and give up more chances than they get.

Granted that probably doesn't reflect the current situation, as the pens were pacing for a 105-110 point season for most of the year, until they collapsed over the past month. If somehow they can channel the way they were playing during the western swing, they have a fighting chance.

Again with the Corsi numbers. It means nothing taken out of context.

They aren't scoring.

That's the bottom line. I mean, I like seeing the 3rd and 4th liners in the offensive zone more than I like seeing them in the defensive zone, but the puck is more often being shuffled along the perimeter. It isn't meaningful offensive puck possession, it's just keep-away.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Again with the Corsi numbers. It means nothing taken out of context.

They aren't scoring.

That's the bottom line. I mean, I like seeing the 3rd and 4th liners in the offensive zone more than I like seeing them in the defensive zone, but the puck is more often being shuffled along the perimeter. It isn't meaningful offensive puck possession, it's just keep-away.

Well it's not really keep away, it's the metric that tracks the difference in shot attempts. It's not a be all end all, but there's a reason why NHL teams use it now. Hey i realize it's a longshot, but it's something other than parroting constantly how we're going to destroyed and this organization is ruined.

 

[Syrinx]

It's all about Fleury. He'll get a spectacular save here and there. He needs to make the saves that he's supposed to make. If he does, the Penguins can win.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Pancakes]

It's definitely possible to win the series. Just unlikely.

But having Fleury + Sid + even a not 100% Geno is still talent enough to do damage. Obviously we basically need Fleury to have a whale of a series and for Lundqvist/Talbot to hopefully falter in order for us to win. But it could happen. Montreal faced basically the same circumstances against us a few years ago and they took us down. It required a perfectly played series by them and for us to falter, but both things did happen.

It's not unthinkable. Great teams lose alllllllllllllllll the time to weaker ones in the playoffs. We're the number one case study in that, so it's funny to watch everyone be dismissive when we've lost to much weaker teams with regularity in the playoffs.

 

[Freeptop]

Bearing in mind, I'm expecting the Pens to lose the series, but here's how they could potentially win:

1. The Rangers go into the series overconfident.
2. The Pens come in without feeling as much pressure.
3. The Pens continue to possess the puck (and shoot it) more than the Rangers (this was true for all but one game in the season series).
4. The Pens' shooting percentage crawls back out of the depths to which it has sunk the last couple weeks and gets to league average or better.
5. The Rangers' shooting percentage regresses back down to the mean.

I do feel that numbers 4 and 5 are pretty much directly related to points 1 and 2.

Unfortunately, I think the Pens are still mentally fragile enough as a team that it's unlikely any of the above will happen, much less all of it (and it will take all of the above for the Pens to win... and even then it might not be enough).

 

[metalan2]

I honestly believe they will win and I believe that horrific stretch playing with no defenseman will make them that much stronger.

 

[ChrisKuuuunitz]

Here is how, they forget their brains.

This team is the biggest bunch of head cases ever. They need to just understand they are probably not going to win, so just play unpredictable in the first two games and hope to get at least one win in NY.

Of course they have a chance, but does anyone not see them getting pummeled and beaten, and humiliated in the first game, this team is so stupid they will lose so bad.