Value of: Yegor sharangovich

[MakeCgyGreatAgain]

I’m good with keeping him. Let him develop as a center. A full off season and training camp working on face offs and the centre position could raise his value if he won’t resign. He’s a fan favourite here for now. If he’s not signed by deadline next season trade him.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Maybe we're not watching the same player. He would be tied for the lead or leading 12 NHL teams in goals this season.
Is he not doing it naturally enough?


this is him beating an unscreend perennial Vezina candidate and 2x Stanley Cup champ clean from the top of the circles
Flames have not had an outside shooting threat like that in their forward ranks since Mike Cammalleri left



I'm sorry but expected goals is such a trash twitter stat. Pretty sure I remember Jesse Puljujarvi leading the entire league in xG/60 one year and that poor boy couldn't score in a monkey whorehouse with a fistful of bananas.

Until they have data on where the other players are on the ice and who is doing the shooting it's not worth nearly as much stock as people seem to want to put into it. A corsi event at the side of the net of a 4th liner pumping it into a set goalie's pads is worth 3x more than an Ovechkin one time rocket from outside the dot. Because math said so



Sure. Gauge the trade value. But I don't see the rush to trade a guy in his mid 20s who's just had a break out year on your team, a team that as you pointed out desperately needs offensive talent.

Dude a hard snap shot is not an elusive shot. That is basically the same shot Mangiapane scored on Oettinger in the playoffs 2 years ago. Fast and accurate. There is no curl and drag, or subtle change in direction to change the angle or fool the goalie, there is just wind up and release.

Expected goals (ixG) =/= expected goals for (xGF). I am talking about individual expected goals. That is the individual players percent chance of scoring on each shot they've taken in a given time frame (generally a season). xGF is a how many goals a player is expected be on the ice for based on chances while they were on the ice.
Puljujari's career high in ixG was 21.71, and he scored 14 goals that year. That year he ranked 169th in ixG. He ranked 11th in xGF because he played almost strictly with McDavid. Don't act arrogant when you don't know what you are talking about.

The thing you aren't getting is that there is nothing elite about Sharangovich, he is a middle 6 winger that has been lucky with his shot this year. He is a perfectly fine player to keep around but due to his cap hit he will likely garner a lot of interest from competing teams. We would be complete imbeciles to ignore that. For example, if like the Wild or Isles offered their 1st at the draft for him I would do it. I don't think we should value him at anything less than a pick in the 15-25 range right now. At next years deadline we can't expect that though.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Dude a hard snap shot is not an elusive shot. That is basically the same shot Mangiapane scored on Oettinger in the playoffs 2 years ago. Fast and accurate. There is no curl and drag, or subtle change in direction to change the angle or fool the goalie, there is just wind up and release.

Well first of all that's not a snap shot. Nor is it much like Mangiapane's goal against Oettinger. That's a one timer slapshot from an entirely different area of the OZ.

'Elusive'.. so because he didn't disguise his shot like Bedard or Matthews that makes it not an asset? He gets it through high and hard. If you want to see curl and drag here's him disguising his shot in a shootout against Toronto :


(1:29)

Expected goals (ixG) =/= expected goals for (xGF). I am talking about individual expected goals. That is the individual players percent chance of scoring on each shot they've taken in a given time frame (generally a season). xGF is a how many goals a player is expected be on the ice for based on chances while they were on the ice.
Puljujari's career high in ixG was 21.71, and he scored 14 goals that year. That year he ranked 169th in ixG. He ranked 11th in xGF because he played almost strictly with McDavid. Don't act arrogant when you don't know what you are talking about.

They use the exact same model where these "expected goals" are computed by where the shot is taken. It's the same stat just repackaged.

The highest individual expected goals this season league wide per NST at 5v5 is Zach Hyman with 28. He has 37. MacKinnon is expected to have 19 goals at 5v5. He has 32. So is every player with more than 30Gs just lucky? Goalies just crap? Or is the stat just not that predictive despite having the gall to claim to know how many goals a player should have based on their 1s and 0s. It's the arrogance of people who treat these stats as some kind of hidden knowledge sacrosanct that's really amusing.

The thing you aren't getting is that there is nothing elite about Sharangovich, he is a middle 6 winger that has been lucky with his shot this year. He is a perfectly fine player to keep around but due to his cap hit he will likely garner a lot of interest from competing teams. We would be complete imbeciles to ignore that. For example, if like the Wild or Isles offered their 1st at the draft for him I would do it. I don't think we should value him at anything less than a pick in the 15-25 range right now. At next years deadline we can't expect that though.

I'm not saying give him the Huberdeau treatment 8 years a billion dollars. Just because he's not elite doesn't mean you get rid of him.

Maybe he would return something good value wise. But some are ignoring or downplaying the value he has to the team being on the roster, the team needs NHL players. Selling high on him this summer would signify a more total teardown rebuild and I don't think the Flames have an appetite to do that.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I see he has a pretty bad +/- compared to other Calgary players. How is his 5v5 defensive play? Problem with the devils is that while he was good on the PK,!he got clearly outplayed by guys like Tatar for a top 6 wing spot. Obviously given Mercer and Holtz’ poor seasons, the Devils could have used him this year. But there was a reason he barely cracked the lineup in the playoffs. Seems to have been the only person to click with Huberdeau though.

0.961 PDO will do that to a player.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Huh? There's nothing elusive about Sharangoch's shot at all. He's not a natural goal scorer at all. Like Mangiapane, he's simply got a good strong shot and a nose for the net.

Not a natural goal scorer? In every season where he's averaged 15+ mins of ice time, he's paced for 24+ goals (24, 26, and 32 goal paces). He was snakebitten his last year in NJ (and played with low talent players). But still he's averaged 0.91 g/60 throughout his career at 5v5, that puts him top ~20 among true centers despite not always having the best linemates.

He's not going to score at 17%+ next year. He's got 28 goals so far this season and an expected goals of 21 (which is the same as Mangiapane just one has more luck than the other).

Why not? I wouldn't anticipate it, but 17% isn't that far beyond his career average of 14.2%, and you'd expect to see a slight bump in that number playing with a pure playmaker like Huberdeau. He shot at 18% his last season in the KHL, he knows how to finish.

Besides, his 5v5 on ice sh% is only 8.68%, which is completely sustainable. And while his individual shooting percentage is a bit high, the shooting percentage of everyone else on the ice with him comes out to only 5.93%, which is extremely low. Meaning his linemates have only 21 goals vs 27.44 expected goals. His individual shooting luck seems to have been offset by the shooting luck of his linemates.

If you adjusted for shooting luck, he should probably have ~5 less 5v5 goals, but he should also probably have ~5 more 5v5 assists.

 

[Volica]

I mean, I got the avatar and everything.

The guy is so useful. Even when he's not producing, he's useful. Plays both special teams, has a wicked shot.
I assume Calgary will want to keep him, and let Mangiapane go; two years younger and could easily slip right into the line with Backlund/Coleman if Calgary got better talent at the draft or if one of their prospects hits.

Smart player too. I honestly think that given the opportunity the Devils would go backsies on that trade; because he could have really filled in a bunch of holes as they dealt with injuries this year.

I think they'll sign him to 4-5 years, he's only 26, and Calgary is wisely not going scorched earth with their rebuild; he fits in as a guy who can usher in the new era while also being a productive member of the team.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

GOAT Belorussian player?

 

[GOilers88]

He was expected to score 21 goals, but has scored 28 so far. This tells us he will regress.

Am I understanding that argument correctly. Cause if I am, this is why I hate advanced stats.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I think it's one of those situations, where unless there's an offer that makes sense, we're content to keep him.

There's arguments to be made about selling high, if he's going to repeat, etc etc, but at the end of the day, there has to be value in trading him too.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Good chance, at the worst, Calgary fetches something very good for him at next year's deadline if he keeps at his rate. Would be kinda ironic if the Devils brought him back with the extra 2nd they got for Toffoli if they were in a good spot next year lmao. Love the guy, hopefully he finds stability wherever he goes unless he becomes a Rag or Flyer then dead to me

 

[Double Dion]

I've been surprised on 2 ends with Sharangovich. When I watched him with the devils he was a lot better defensively than he's been with us. It's not all PDO, there have been lots of weak plays along the boards that have kept us in our end when he was at wing. He always had pace and a shot, so that wasn't surprising to me, but his ability to read the play offensively has been much higher than I saw in NJ.

I don't think he's a 30 goal guy moving forward. I think 25 is a realistic target and where he should be into his early 30s.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

If I was Calgary, I would trade him. No gaurantees he repeats this season. Shagongovich is good but I have a feeling he’s overachieved this year.

 

[Petes2424]

They stole him. He’s the exact type of player who helps you win in the dirty areas. Huge mistake by the Devils, although they knew it could turn out this way.

The day they got Meier, his fate was sealed. They may not have included him in that trade, but they gave the spot he was after, to Meier, and the writing was on the wall.

He’s worth a pretty penny right now.