The ‘67s had just used 5-2nds, 6-3rds, 4-4ths to bolster their roster and lost 2 games to Gatineau …must be a down year for the OHL, right? That was the narrative and you’re sticking to it.
The surprising trades to OHL watchers that a few teams from the two other CHL leagues made, made it likely the OHL representative would not win the Memorial Cup, again; but that is not indicative of a down year for the OHL.
The fact that the Petes were crushed by the host team, that’s a telling sign that the OHL rep is not particularly strong and/or had a really bad game.
Eight OHL teams made significant additions ahead of the trade deadline, of course there was no clear cut favourite. Kitchener and Windsor made four major trades each for one to be eliminated in round one. The Petes and Sting went further than the others by trading their two most recent 1st picks and nearly exhausting future picks to win a championship. The Petes won. That is not a sign of a down year for the league.
Two or three teams each year from the Q & W leagues are more willing to add and sacrifice the near future than OHL teams and will have won each memorial cup since 2017.
Eight teams making significant trades points to PARITY! It does not point to 2-3 teams that are dominant. Discussions around who would win the OHL Championship (post deadline) were varied greatly. It went far past 2-3 teams. So, unless the talent in the OHL is so vast to the point there were as many as eight teams capable of playing at a level required to win a Memorial Cup, it points to no team truly standing out. That alone is indicative the OHL didn’t have a competitive team to represent them at the Memorial Cup. Leading indicator #1.
Second, we saw an interleague series where the top team in the OHL from a points perspective get absolutely dominated by cross town rival Gatineau. I had already felt the 67’s weren’t worthy of their lofty record at that point but had hoped the two additions wwere enough. They weren’t and it was clear after that two game set where Ottawa looked like a vastly inferior team. Then Ottawa somehow “bounces back” and goes on a 16-1-1 run to finish the season. That is leading indicator #2.
Ottawa made zero additions until the deadline when they added two key players. The team traded five players prior to that. No one had Ottawa being where they finished, even me who thought they were part of the discussion but without some serious moves, they wouldn’t be at the top of the conference. They easily cruised to the top of the conference. Most games Ottawa played with a minimum of 10 players 17 and under. They weren’t constructed to be an elite team and it showed in their second round exit. Too much youth. Leading indicator #3.
Team Canada had only six OHL players on the roster. One was a late addition after the injury to Dach (Beck) and another was a ridiculous addition in Gaudreau in net. Beck being an injury replacement and Gaudreau probably being the 4th or 5th best goalie in the OHL (I’m being generous) representing Canada pairs it down to probably four players truly playing for Canada. That is almost unheard of. Leading indicator #4.
Peterborough underachieved all season. They aren’t a 74 point team. I think everybody agrees with that (except for maybe Generals fans). Where the disagreement lies with Peterborough is the timing of them playing at their capabilities for a long stretch. They did manage to pull it together and kudos to them for doing it. But, even with that, a league with an elite team or two would not result in a team like Peterborough getting to the Finals. We can argue (probably successfully) that North Bay healthy beats Peterborough. Fine. But regardless, there was only one OHL team with 100+ points and that team wasn’t a 100+ point team in a “normal OHL“ season. That, we can probably agree. Having a team charge out of the pack with 74 regular season points is another eye opener. Leading indicator #5.
Coming into the OHL season, there is usually some form of consensus regarding teams to watch. There’s usually one particular team, maybe two that people all generally point to. This season, the predictions for the West were all over the place. No one truly felt the West was strong. That leaves the East. To a man, people generally pointed to four teams in the East. A lot of balance predictions But all four of those teams were generally witin the top 3. Regardless of that, there didn’t seem to be a team that stood out. Each team had multiple holes. None of the top teams coming into the season had much in the way of draft picks to use (outside of Ottawa). Not that their cupboards were bare, just not a stockpile. Coming into a season where there really isn’t a consensus top 2 and none of the top teams loaded for bear is odd. We usually see at least one team loaded up with picks and poised to use them. Not this year. Leading indicator #6.
Just because there are leading indicators to see doesn’t mean it will all come true. But it does open the door to the possibility that it is true. Post deadline, my wife asked if we could get tickets for the Memorial Cup. She was thinking Ottawa had a great chance. I wasn’t so sure. Regardless, the point I made at that time was that I felt the OHL wasn’t really very strong this year. I looked at all the movement and big names that moved at the deadlines in those other two leagues. I saw how strong the teams were prior to the moves and those moves making them even stronger. I really didn’t feel it mattered which team would end up going to the Memorial Cup from the OHL. It wasn’t going to be pretty.
Now here we are. I’m pointing to six leading indicators that have contributed to me predicting this. Take it how you wish. I typically don’t make bold predictions from nothing. I usually have a strong sense of what I am talking about, especially when I argue the point.