GDT: x-CAR - DET Part 8. Final Reckoning

[GoldiFox]

Seattle would easily choose Nino over Skjei. The forward market isn't nearly as deep as the defensive market. IMO Nino is a must-protect, because when he's playing like this, his contract is good value. Again, Skjei is a luxury piece for us when you consider Jake Bean being there. Not saying that his loss wouldn't hurt, but we have the reserves there to still have a good top-4 without him.

I guess it is just a difference of opinion on what is considered luxury.

IMO a middle-6, 20 goal winger making ~$5 million is much more of a luxury item then a 2nd pairing shutdown D making ~$5 million. I like what I have seen from Bean but I am not sold on him being a top-4 mainstay just yet. Whereas I feel like the Canes have many options that could work in the middle-6.

Plus Nino has a history of alternating hot/cold seasons and he has 7 points in his last 32 Playoff games.

I also disagree that Francis would take Nino over Skjei. Skjei has 3 additional years of team control left and is playing a key role on one of the best teams in the league. Nino would be a 1 year rental who would be trade deadline bait. Maybe Francis would want to bring in Nino and immediately try to extend him but I don't see him being the "core" type for Seattle.

 

[emptyNedder]

With the way the roster is constructed we are capable and should be introducing 1-2 ELCs in the bottom 6 to lower cost and learn the ropes.

Agree with this. Geekie and Lorentz are producing very much like McGinn and Martinook--their first seasons. Both are producing this season as well as Paquette ever has. There really isn't a reason to doubt they will improve both production and "presence" (whatever that is) the next 2-3 seasons.

just think that the conventional wisdom on roster-building in the Twitter analytics community has swung too far in the direction of "Cheap and young ELCs are good even if they're worse than the guys that they're replacing".

Worse doesn't really hold. I don't think it takes deep analytics to extrapolate the rookie season production/impact of players like Geekie and Lorentz and realize as soon as next season it will be much like McGinn/Martinook/Paquette.

The other thing to think about is that the Canes have won this season with McGinn/Martinook in and with Geekie/Lorentz in. At some point if players are part of the same team result there really isn't enough difference to make an argument.

 

[LakeLivin]

If I'm Seattle and Dougie in unsigned I'd go hard after him in their exclusionary negotiation period before the draft. Top 15 or better league wide D-man, veteran experience yet still young enough to contribute for many years. They could afford to offer top dollar as well as a leadership role in shaping the new franchise. What other player, offense or defense, will Seattle have a shot at that approaches the level of a Dougie Hamilton? If you can make that happen you take it and run, imo.

 

[bleedgreen]

Drury and Rees are two guys that could appear in the bottom six sooner than later as well.

Id assume all ufa forwards are gone. I wouldn’t be surprised to flat out not afford McGinn. You’d think he’d get a two or three year offer for more than what we can pay. The other two will get interest and would likely have to accept less to stay, and would be dumb to do so. Martinook is the outlier as they love the guy, I could see them stretching things to try to keep him.

This is all under the hope we keep Dougie. If we don’t maybe we could spend more to keep one. I could also see us signing Dougie, letting these guys go then spending next year missing what these guys brought and trying to replace them if there’s room.

I’d be really surprised to see Francis take Nino without payment to do so.

 

[Tryamw]

I’d be really surprised to see Francis take Nino without payment to do so.

One slightly used Gardiner as well

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

While he has term, Skjei's AAV is just market value-ish. If his play slips, away from Pesce, his contract becomes one that the Kraken may not be able to move in full (no cap retained or returned) in this environment.

Geekie makes more sense for Seattle to me. Not wishcasting. I do think the team can replace Skjei in free agency with $5.25 mil. Centers are going to be hard to come by because of the protection format. Geekie comes with the full slate of RFA years (4); he's a guy that can play now and be a part of a winning team in the future. Francis/MacDonald drafted him, so the relationship is there.

 

[The Faulker 27]

This Org really is stacked in terms of assets. When is the last time we had a positive dilemma to this magnitude? Geekie, and Lorrentz have been a pleasant surprise for me. Too many years of call ups that turned out to be no shows I suppose. These guys are legitimately dangerous, play hard, and defensively responsible for the most part.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Interesting to see these takes on Nino. I think we all agree when he's playing like he has this year (and 2 years ago when we acquired him), he's worth his contract.

25-30 goals and 50-55 points while playing a pretty hard physical game with good board work and net front presence.

With our window just opening and next year being a bit of an 'all in year' with the core still under their cheap contracts, Necas on his last year of ELC, and Tro becoming a UFA afterwards, we might want all the firepower we can get for 2021/2022.

Nino seems to have found his groove and works well on either line 1 or line 2. SAT + NTN are cooking so let them do their thing. After next year, I can see Foegele graduating from line 3 to line 2 and taking over Nino's role at a lesser price tag. But until then I'd prefer not to mess with it.

in 2021/2022 we might be looking at no Nino or Tro. Is Necas a C? Can one or more of Drury, Rees, Jarvis, Suzuki contribute in the top 6 in short order? Lots of questions and moving parts but probably best to minimize that as much as possible until then.

Seattle will have their choice of Skjei if they want him and I would expose Fast, Geekie, Lorentz, etc rather than Nino/Foegele. If they take Geekie I'd be thrilled, not because I don't like him as a player but he's replaceable and probably doesn't have the ceiling where we're going to really regret losing him.

 

[emptyNedder]

in 2021/2022 we might be looking at no Nino or Tro. Is Necas a C? Can one or more of Drury, Rees, Jarvis, Suzuki contribute in the top 6 in short order? Lots of questions and moving parts but probably best to minimize that as much as possible until then.

There is a bit of a gamble next season. If it is truly all-in, then none of Drury/Rees/Jarvis/Suzuki likely get much time. I see the logic in that. But I also think giving Jarvis or Bokk the Aho/Svech/Necas treatment makes sense--start them on a line with Staal and Foegele for the entire year. Then in 2020 losing Nino and/or Trocheck is more palatable because you have 5 of the top 6 in Aho/TT/Svech/Necas/Jarvis.

Suddenly both current lineup and development opportunities are tough choices.

 

[A Star is Burns]

While he has term, Skjei's AAV is just market value-ish. If his play slips, away from Pesce, his contract becomes one that the Kraken may not be able to move in full (no cap retained or returned) in this environment.

Geekie makes more sense for Seattle to me. Not wishcasting. I do think the team can replace Skjei in free agency with $5.25 mil. Centers are going to be hard to come by because of the protection format. Geekie comes with the full slate of RFA years (4); he's a guy that can play now and be a part of a winning team in the future. Francis/MacDonald drafted him, so the relationship is there.

I've said a few times that Geekie wouldn't surprise me at all. He'd be a very William Karlsson type pick. I think he can be a pretty good player (not likely what Karlsson was for that first Vegas season mind you) if given a big opportunity as he might get for an expansion club. Who knows who they'll end up taking, but I would like that pick for them a lot.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Mcginn, Martinook, Paquette, Foegele, Fast- are all redundant. the least redundant is Fast as a RS. Foegele has flashes of a 2nd line winger.

I don’t agree completely as they bring different things. Paquette and McGinn both hit, but Paquette has nowhere near the offensive ability. Martinook has a leadership aspect that none of the others have. Foegele and Fast are more similar, but add a speed element the other 3 don’t. So “redundant” in that they are bottom six forwards, I agree, but they don’t all bring the same types, nor level of contribution.

We have cheaper players (which we are going to need) in Lorentz, Geekie, Cotton, Drury (hopefully), and cheap veterans.

The top 6, Staal, and one other forward are likely in tact. 4 roster forward spots and we'll have to save money with Ned, Mrazek, and Hamilton all getting raises.

Something has to give for sure.

I don’t think we’ll see all of McGinn, Martinook and Paquette back ( maybe none). McGinn has probably priced himself out of Carolina. Paquette was more about moving on from Dzingel. Martinook? Not sure. On top of that, we could lose a forward to the expansion draft, so I expect some of the young guys will have roles. Because of this year, Rod is probably comfortable with Geekie and Lorentz. Adding 2-3 more rookies on top of that? Not sure that’ll happen.

I guess the expansion draft and how Carolina does this post season will dictate some of that.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

There is a bit of a gamble next season. If it is truly all-in, then none of Drury/Rees/Jarvis/Suzuki likely get much time. I see the logic in that. But I also think giving Jarvis or Bokk the Aho/Svech/Necas treatment makes sense--start them on a line with Staal and Foegele for the entire year. Then in 2020 losing Nino and/or Trocheck is more palatable because you have 5 of the top 6 in Aho/TT/Svech/Necas/Jarvis.

Suddenly both current lineup and development opportunities are tough choices.

Unless Fast is taking in expansion or traded, I don't know where we have space for those young guys on the 3rd line.

Svech - Aho - TT
Nino - Tro - Necas
Foegele - Staal - Fast
Lorentz/Geekie/McCormick

Let's just say Fast does get taken, then you can put one guy there.

If NONE of Paq, Marty, or Brock are brought back we still have enough guys for the 4th line, however you'd be losing a ton of veteran leadership. I doubt the borg and especially Rod is cool with running a 4th line of guys who have like 100-150 NHL games total under their belts.

Maybe there is be some trades to clear the clutter in the bottom 6. I'm not too concerned either way because I think between guys under team control or UFA's we can put together a good group to fill out the bottom 4-5 spots. I'd rather not subtract from the top 6 and lose Nino unless we can get an upgrade.

 

[emptyNedder]

Svech - Aho - TT
Nino - Tro - Necas
Foegele - Staal - Fast
Lorentz/Geekie/McCormick

Agree that there is little room--however as much as the last few games have been fun, I don't think McCormick plays in Carolina next season. So theoretically if all of McGinn, Martinook, and Paquette are allowed to leave the bottom lines could be

Foegele-Staal-Jarvis
Fast-Lorentz-Geekie

I don't expect it. But it does give some veteran presence to both lines.

 

[Lempo]

McGinn is going to want a raise, and quite simply, if we want to keep more valuable players, even if his price *is* reasonable, we're not going to be able to afford him if we want to have room to keep guys like Trocheck down the line.

If we can keep him at his current salary, fine. But we won't be able to, so moving on is probably best.

So what remains is for us to ensure that Stanley Cup Winner Brock McGinn is in position to negotiate as high a salary as possible, to eat the cap of one of our competitor's.

 

[geehaad]

I really don't see the issue with "veteran presence". Necas is the one player in the top-9 who will have less than 200 games under his belt, and if Geekie and Lorentz are back, they've already shown they can hold sway as a 4th line. The Canes are in a perfect position to field proposals from experienced UFA suitors who want to play for Brind'Amour and a top-tier team like the Canes. Martinook and Pacquette don't move the needle enough on either offense or defense to warrant being of $1M of value to this club, and McGinn is too good for the few available roles here.

Besides, Rod still needs at least one rookie per season to groom otherwise he'll get bored. Who's it gonna be?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Agree that there is little room--however as much as the last few games have been fun, I don't think McCormick plays in Carolina next season. So theoretically if all of McGinn, Martinook, and Paquette are allowed to leave the bottom lines could be

Foegele-Staal-Jarvis
Fast-Lorentz-Geekie

I don't expect it. But it does give some veteran presence to both lines.

I could easily see Lorentz and Geekie taking spots. Not sure about Jarvis vs. Rees vs. Drury etc. vs. a vet. I think Rod would love Rees or Drury though so could see that.

 

[emptyNedder]

I could easily see Lorentz and Geekie taking spots. Not sure about Jarvis vs. Rees vs. Drury etc. vs. a vet. I think Rod would love Rees or Drury though so could see that.

The only reason to "groom" Jarvis or Bokk is the likelihood that one or both of Trocheck/Niederreiter leaves after 21-22. I do think Rod will love Rees and Drury--just don't think they have the offensive upside of Jarvis (and maybe Bokk). I see Rees/Drury being groomed in 22-23 with Staal in his last contract year.

The Cap thread is relevant here as $ become increasingly important once Svech and Necas sign their next contracts.

Of course, all of this will play out entirely different than any of us think.

 

[bleedgreen]

I could easily see Lorentz and Geekie taking spots. Not sure about Jarvis vs. Rees vs. Drury etc. vs. a vet. I think Rod would love Rees or Drury though so could see that.

And that’s what I see for replacing the UFA’s. Lorentz, Geekie, one of Rees or Drury fighting for a spot. Maybe a vet squeezed out of the market for cheap.

Foegele/Staal/Fast third line.
Lorentz, Geekie, rookie, spare cheap vet.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

A wild card is swapping Gardiner out for an overpaid Middle 6 or Bottom 6 forward in a change of scenery swap.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Of course, all of this will play out entirely different than any of us think.

That’s a given, particularly my views on it will be way off.

one comment on the grooming. I think Rod will push for whatever gives him the best chance at winning next year. The team is in it’s cup window now. Having Jarvis in the lineup may give them the best chance, but I don’t think Rod is going to prioritize replacing Trocheck and Nino down the road over going for the cup.

 

[bleedgreen]

That’s a given, particularly my views on it will be way off.

one comment on the grooming. I think Rod will push for whatever gives him the best chance at winning next year. The team is in it’s cup window now. Having Jarvis in the lineup may give them the best chance, but I don’t think Rod is going to prioritize replacing Trocheck and Nino down the road over going for the cup.

He'll want the lineup to stay as close as it can to this right now, with the only additions being strong and two way.

 

[NotOpie]

I just think that the conventional wisdom on roster-building in the Twitter analytics community has swung too far in the direction of "Cheap and young ELCs are good even if they're worse than the guys that they're replacing". I just see clubs like the Maple Leafs being (potentially) cautionary tales of this type of roster. Sure, if your team is mediocre to bad, I get the "playing the young guys and league-minimum dross over more-expensive bottom-6 vets even if they're not as good" strategy. We are not one of those kinds of teams, however. Every incremental improvement that you can make to your roster matters when you face the big dogs. Sure, I agree that McGinn can get his big-boy deal from some team in UFA. If, however, the cap space is there to keep Marty and Paquette, both of whom are likely to be cheaper than Brock (at least until COVID's a thing of the past), IMO it's the smart thing to do. I've learned over the past couple of years to never underplay the value of having experienced and prime-aged talent on your bottom-6 if you're contending. Remember, our games against the top teams like Tampa have usually been decided at the margins.

$29,453,000 in cap space. 12 players signed. If I was on Twitter, I'd say, "That's it. That's the Tweet". But I'm not so I've got more to add. I get wanting to keep or sign veteran guys for bottom six roles. But those numbers I mentioned are going to dictate a lot of things.

I think we'll protect Aho, Turbo, Svech, Staal, Trocheck, Nino, and Foegele. Warren's a wild card. If I was GMBC, I'd be taking the temperature on what he was looking for in a contract. If it was outrageous (and it could be), then you probably protect Geekie. In my mind Fast was signed for 2 reasons - 1) we needed a right shot middle sixer who was responsible defensively, and 2) to fill out our forward exposure requirements. I would be shocked if he was protected.

All along I've said that probably 2 of McGinn, Marty, or Foegele were gone simply for salary cap reasons. Paquette is a one year rental. We just can't afford all of them. That's because I think we'll want to protect Skjei for the reason that others have stated. Roddy will want as much of this roster as possible for next year's season (and hopefully post-season run).

Although I doubt it, we may just pay Ronnie to let us keep Bean, otherwise, he'd be the "good" player that we'd lose. Of course, we could protect Jake and expose Skjei and it partially solves a potential cap dilemma, but man, that's a roll of the dice on defense.

Given the lack of depth at center, Francis could very well take Morgan Geekie. It wouldn't be out of character. And lastly, I'm also in the crowd that thinks there's likely to be one, maybe two, rookies on next season's roster. We're in the front end of our window and we'll only depend on the dependable....if the money works out.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

$29,453,000 in cap space. 12 players signed. If I was on Twitter, I'd say, "That's it. That's the Tweet". But I'm not so I've got more to add. I get wanting to keep or sign veteran guys for bottom six roles. But those numbers I mentioned are going to dictate a lot of things.

I think we'll protect Aho, Turbo, Svech, Staal, Trocheck, Nino, and Foegele. Warren's a wild card. If I was GMBC, I'd be taking the temperature on what he was looking for in a contract. If it was outrageous (and it could be), then you probably protect Geekie. In my mind Fast was signed for 2 reasons - 1) we needed a right shot middle sixer who was responsible defensively, and 2) to fill out our forward exposure requirements. I would be shocked if he was protected.

All along I've said that probably 2 of McGinn, Marty, or Foegele were gone simply for salary cap reasons. Paquette is a one year rental. We just can't afford all of them. That's because I think we'll want to protect Skjei for the reason that others have stated. Roddy will want as much of this roster as possible for next year's season (and hopefully post-season run).

Although I doubt it, we may just pay Ronnie to let us keep Bean, otherwise, he'd be the "good" player that we'd lose. Of course, we could protect Jake and expose Skjei and it partially solves a potential cap dilemma, but man, that's a roll of the dice on defense.

Given the lack of depth at center, Francis could very well take Morgan Geekie. It wouldn't be out of character. And lastly, I'm also in the crowd that thinks there's likely to be one, maybe two, rookies on next season's roster. We're in the front end of our window and we'll only depend on the dependable....if the money works out.

I'm just saying that even though relying on Bean is a risk, it's IMO a smart risk to take. To me, Seattle will take Skjei outright and we will use the freed cap to both maintain our bottom-6 wall (IMO, Marty and/or Paquette on 1-2 year extensions) and get Svech and Dougie locked up. I don't think it's all that complicated. If Bean doesn't pan out with Pesce by February of next year, acquire a LHD at the deadline.

 

[emptyNedder]

one comment on the grooming. I think Rod will push for whatever gives him the best chance at winning next year. The team is in it’s cup window now.

This may be the only area where I am not sure Rod is 100% correct.

Going back to 15-16, the Cup winner typically has significant contributions from a rookie or young player with less than 50 games prior to the winning season.

15-16: Pittsburgh--Sheary, Rust, Murray
16-17: Pittsburgh--Guentzal
17-18: Washington--Vrana, Stephenson
18-19: St. Louis--Thomnas (Dunn and Sundqvist both had less than 75 games entering the season)
19-20: Tampa--no player under 50 games but Cernak with 58 and Verhaeghe as a rookie with regular season contributions


This, of course, proves nothing. But there is a reasonable argument that Geekie/Lorentz or Jarvis/Bokk/Drury are just as important to ultimate success as Paquette or Fast.

This isn't relevant to roster construction. But interestingly Tampa (2015 runner up/2020 champion) is the only cup runner-up to win the cup within the next 5 years. Though Boston did win and then lost in the finals two years later.

I don't know what that says about cup windows, but it is surprising.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

This may be the only area where I am not sure Rod is 100% correct.

Going back to 15-16, the Cup winner typically has significant contributions from a rookie or young player with less than 50 games prior to the winning season.

15-16: Pittsburgh--Sheary, Rust, Murray
16-17: Pittsburgh--Guentzal
17-18: Washington--Vrana, Stephenson
18-19: St. Louis--Thomnas (Dunn and Sundqvist both had less than 75 games entering the season)
19-20: Tampa--no player under 50 games but Cernak with 58 and Verhaeghe as a rookie with regular season contributions
.

1. A lot of those teams had 1-2 guys that ate up a lot of cap space and had little choice but to add a guy on ELC.
2. Related to #1, Part of the Equation is how many players are on an ELC. That’s what matters in construction of a team.
3. how old were the players in each case you listed above?

Verhaeghe, for instance, was a 2013 draftee. Cernak a 2015 draftee, Rust a 2010 draftee, Sheary would have been 2010 or 2011 draftee, Guentzel a 2013 draftee, Murray a 2012 draftee, Vrana a 2014 draftee, Stephenson a 2012 draftee, Sundqvist a 2012 draftee and Dunn a 2015 draftee.

These aren’t guys fresh out of Juniors. They spent time, in some cases significant time in the AHL. Only Thomas would fall into the same category as Bokk or Jarvis. Maybe Guentzel as it relates to Bokk

edit: I’m not against Bokk or Jarvis getting a shot, just that your examples aren’t apples to apples.