GDT: x-CAR - DET Part 8. Final Reckoning

[GIN ANTONIC]

We got Skjei and Teuvo back. They have an immediate impact, and the reason we defeat a team that has been a challenge. That's good stuff.

And we’re still waiting on Marty, Fast, and Big Brock Energy to get healthy too.

Svech - Aho - TT
Nino - Tro - Necas
Foegele - Staal - Fast
Martinook - Paquette - McGinn
Geekie - Lorentz - Mr. Spice

Slavin - Dougie
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner/Bean - Hacksaw

Mrazek
Ned
Reims

 

[Svechhammer]

And we’re still waiting on Marty, Fast, and Big Brock Energy to get healthy too.

Svech - Aho - TT
Nino - Tro - Necas
Foegele - Staal - Fast
Martinook - Paquette - McGinn
Geekie - Lorentz - Mr. Spice

Slavin - Dougie
Skjei - Pesce
Gardiner/Bean - Hacksaw

Mrazek
Ned
Reims

The last week or so has me thinking that we could lose both Paquette and McGinn this offseason, replace them with Lorentz and Geekie, and actually be a better team going forward than we are now.

Part of that, I have to admit, is that McGinn isn't fit for a 4th line role, he's better than that and deserves a fair shake somewhere else that he just isn't going to get here.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

The last week or so has me thinking that we could lose both Paquette and McGinn this offseason, replace them with Lorentz and Geekie, and actually be a better team going forward than we are now.

Part of that, I have to admit, is that McGinn isn't fit for a 4th line role, he's better than that and deserves a fair shake somewhere else that he just isn't going to get here.

I think that we underestimate the impact of having good veterans on the bottom-six. McGinn, being only 27 and having a good year, will likely get a raise from a team like Edmonton that can't grow depth players to save their life, but I think that the smart move is to keep Marty and Paquette as long as there's the cap space.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

The last week or so has me thinking that we could lose both Paquette and McGinn this offseason, replace them with Lorentz and Geekie, and actually be a better team going forward than we are now.

Part of that, I have to admit, is that McGinn isn't fit for a 4th line role, he's better than that and deserves a fair shake somewhere else that he just isn't going to get here.

HE’S A 4TH LINER. JUST AN ELITE ONE.

LIKE A LOW COST PUB THAT COULDN’T SERVE YOU A FANCY MEAL IF ITS LIFE DEPENDED ON IT, BUT THEY’LL BE DAMNED IF THEY CAN’T FULL YOUR STOMACH EFFICIENTLY.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I vote we keep McGinn. I think what he brings every game can't be understated. Unless his price is not reasonable, then he can hit the ol' dusty trail.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Mcginn, Martinook, Paquette, Foegele, Fast- are all redundant. the least redundant is Fast as a RS. Foegele has flashes of a 2nd line winger.

We have cheaper players (which we are going to need) in Lorentz, Geekie, Cotton, Drury (hopefully), and cheap veterans.

The top 6, Staal, and one other forward are likely in tact. 4 roster forward spots and we'll have to save money with Ned, Mrazek, and Hamilton all getting raises.

Something has to give for sure.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Mcginn, Martinook, Paquette, Foegele, Fast- are all redundant. the least redundant is Fast as a RS. Foegele has flashes of a 2nd line winger.

We have cheaper players (which we are going to need) in Lorentz, Geekie, Cotton, Drury (hopefully), and cheap veterans.

The top 6, Staal, and one other forward are likely in tact. 4 roster forward spots and we'll have to save money with Ned, Mrazek, and Hamilton all getting raises.

Something has to give for sure.

I just think that the conventional wisdom on roster-building in the Twitter analytics community has swung too far in the direction of "Cheap and young ELCs are good even if they're worse than the guys that they're replacing". I just see clubs like the Maple Leafs being (potentially) cautionary tales of this type of roster. Sure, if your team is mediocre to bad, I get the "playing the young guys and league-minimum dross over more-expensive bottom-6 vets even if they're not as good" strategy. We are not one of those kinds of teams, however. Every incremental improvement that you can make to your roster matters when you face the big dogs. Sure, I agree that McGinn can get his big-boy deal from some team in UFA. If, however, the cap space is there to keep Marty and Paquette, both of whom are likely to be cheaper than Brock (at least until COVID's a thing of the past), IMO it's the smart thing to do. I've learned over the past couple of years to never underplay the value of having experienced and prime-aged talent on your bottom-6 if you're contending. Remember, our games against the top teams like Tampa have usually been decided at the margins.

 

[cptjeff]

I vote we keep McGinn. I think what he brings every game can't be understated. Unless his price is not reasonable, then he can't hit the ol' dusty trail.

McGinn is going to want a raise, and quite simply, if we want to keep more valuable players, even if his price *is* reasonable, we're not going to be able to afford him if we want to have room to keep guys like Trocheck down the line.

If we can keep him at his current salary, fine. But we won't be able to, so moving on is probably best.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The last week or so has me thinking that we could lose both Paquette and McGinn this offseason, replace them with Lorentz and Geekie, and actually be a better team going forward than we are now.

Part of that, I have to admit, is that McGinn isn't fit for a 4th line role, he's better than that and deserves a fair shake somewhere else that he just isn't going to get here.

Yeah, I was really just talking about this playoff run coming up.

Next year I would expect the forwards on the top 3 lines to stay the same and then the 4th line will be a combo of vets and young guys.

Foegele has too much potential not to keep in the mix. He could be a Nino replacement after next year at a cheaper salary. Fast is only signed for an extra 2 x2 which provides good value. McGinn is maybe the better player but he'll cost more and not sure the on ice difference is enough to justify the raise or carrying both to share time.

4th line moving forward, I'm not worries about as long as we have 1 vet on there. Geekie/Lorentz/Spice or some of the other young guys are more than capable of getting the job done.

 

[spockBokk]

In all the talk of who the Canes are going to lose on the blue line in terms of the expansion draft, there’s also an intriguing decision to be made on the last 2 forward protection slots. Making the obvious assumption that Staal, Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen and Trocheck occupy the first 5 slots, who out of Niederreiter, Foegele and Fast get the last 2?

Were it up to me, Fast would get a slot due to his contract alone. The tough decision comes down to Niederreiter and Foegele. Will Foegele be a tough re-sign? Is Niederreiter’s current level of production sustainable?

In the end, I’d give the last spot to Foegele, and if Niederreiter got picked, well you have the gift of $5M in cap space to use on Hamilton’s extension and you hope a guy on an ELC (Jarvis, Rees, Suzuki, whoever) is ready to play top 9 minutes or that Foegele can finally produce at a 40pt/2nd line winger level.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

I just think that the conventional wisdom on roster-building in the Twitter analytics community has swung too far in the direction of "Cheap and young ELCs are good even if they're worse than the guys that they're replacing". I just see clubs like the Maple Leafs being (potentially) cautionary tales of this type of roster. Sure, if your team is mediocre to bad, I get the "playing the young guys and league-minimum dross over more-expensive bottom-6 vets even if they're not as good" strategy. We are not one of those kinds of teams, however. Every incremental improvement that you can make to your roster matters when you face the big dogs. Sure, I agree that McGinn can get his big-boy deal from some team in UFA. If, however, the cap space is there to keep Marty and Paquette, both of whom are likely to be cheaper than Brock (at least until COVID's a thing of the past), IMO it's the smart thing to do. I've learned over the past couple of years to never underplay the value of having experienced and prime-aged talent on your bottom-6 if you're contending. Remember, our games against the top teams like Tampa have usually been decided at the margins.

Someone like Geekie is a good example. I think he is a good player but might not be the best fit for 4th line. He has more value elsewhere and could/should be traded or claimed.

It's true vets are quite cost-effective and should have a place in team but they are still the guys you cut in order to spend the picks where it matters (Mista, Duugy, Nachos etc).

I really like Lorentz. I think he plays like a vet for the cost of a rookie. Him, Drury, Cotton and maybe Rees can play high-energy 4th line hockey and therefore have better chances of breaking out. If you are a skill player and not named Seth Jarvis (Suzuki, Bokk, Puistola, Tieksola and all those 2nd-4th rounders) it's harder to make into team. Some of those guys will have NHL future but not in Canes uniform.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

In all the talk of who the Canes are going to lose on the blue line in terms of the expansion draft, there’s also an intriguing decision to be made on the last 2 forward protection slots. Making the obvious assumption that Staal, Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen and Trocheck occupy the first 5 slots, who out of Niederreiter, Foegele and Fast get the last 2?

Were it up to me, Fast would get a slot due to his contract alone. The tough decision comes down to Niederreiter and Foegele. Will Foegele be a tough re-sign? Is Niederreiter’s current level of production sustainable?

I'd protect Nino, Bean, and Fast, personally. Let Seattle select Skjei and have the depth cushion the blow. An underrated possibility with Nino is a Faulk-style trade-and-sign, particularly if there's a Granlund or a Tatar still available in UFA. For that reason alone, I'd protect Nino in the ED.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

Regarding Fast and McBrock. I just realized signing Fast pretty much took McGinn out of the equation. They got a comparable (better?) player for good cap and term. Without him retaining McGinn would have been a harder decision.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I just think that the conventional wisdom on roster-building in the Twitter analytics community has swung too far in the direction of "Cheap and young ELCs are good even if they're worse than the guys that they're replacing". I just see clubs like the Maple Leafs being (potentially) cautionary tales of this type of roster. Sure, if your team is mediocre to bad, I get the "playing the young guys and league-minimum dross over more-expensive bottom-6 vets even if they're not as good" strategy. We are not one of those kinds of teams, however. Every incremental improvement that you can make to your roster matters when you face the big dogs. Sure, I agree that McGinn can get his big-boy deal from some team in UFA. If, however, the cap space is there to keep Marty and Paquette, both of whom are likely to be cheaper than Brock (at least until COVID's a thing of the past), IMO it's the smart thing to do. I've learned over the past couple of years to never underplay the value of having experienced and prime-aged talent on your bottom-6 if you're contending. Remember, our games against the top teams like Tampa have usually been decided at the margins.

We arent turning into the Maple Leafs yet. We dont have (and probably wont) have 3, 10 mil + players and no real farm system to supplement. We have great contracts across the roster to supplement the more expensive ones (Hamilton and Aho).

Aho, Turbo, Necas, Staal, and Tro are all PP, PK, and ES players. Having a bottom 6 that is strong in PK situations is good but it isnt necessay when 2/3rds of your top 6 and your 3rd line plays it as well.
Im fine with keeping a veteran or two that will bring the lumber. Those should be close to league minimum guys though. With the way the roster is constructed we are capable and should be introducing 1-2 ELCs in the bottom 6 to lower cost and learn the ropes. We arent doing it out of necessity because of a lack of talent or cheap owner anymore, it is because the roster has been meticulously crafted to support it. Guys that arent in the budget shouldnt be retained.

For the cap to work short and long term, 2 of Lorentz, Geekie, Drury, Rees, Jarvis, and Cotton should be on the roster next season to fill out the 4th line.
SAT
N-T-N
Foegele/Mcginn-Staal-Fast
Marty-Any of the 2 previously mentioned

Add a cheap veteran 13th forward and call it a day.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Regarding Fast and McBrock. I just realized signing Fast pretty much took McGinn out of the equation. They got a comparable (better?) player for good cap and term. Without him retaining McGinn would have been a harder decision.

Actually, I would not be shocked at all if a team trades a small pick to get McGinn's UFA rights after the season.

 

[Chrispy]

I'd protect Nino, Bean, and Fast, personally. Let Seattle select Skjei and have the depth cushion the blow.

I protect Nino, Foegele, and Bean. But I can see the argument for Fast over Foegele. I think Foegele has more potential long-term and is under team control as long as Fast for (hopefully) only slightly more money. They can also try to negotiate with Foegele before the expansion draft and see where the number is and whether they can buy out any UFA seasons.

I'm not worried about Seattle taking Fast, but I can see a scenario where Seattle is struggling to find centers and takes Geekie. Skjei or Geekie are the likely targets I see.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I protect Nino, Foegele, and Bean. But I can see the argument for Fast over Foegele. I think Foegele has more potential long-term and is under team control as long as Fast for (hopefully) only slightly more money. They can also try to negotiate with Foegele before the expansion draft and see where the number is and whether they can buy out any UFA seasons.

I'm not worried about Seattle taking Fast, but I can see a scenario where Seattle is struggling to find centers and takes Geekie. Skjei or Geekie are the likely targets I see.

I just see Skjei as an attractive piece for Seattle. Even with the deep defensive market in the ED, Skjei is probably the single best defenseman available for Seattle to select outright, especially when you consider that Guerin and Armstrong (whose youth pipelines aren't as deep) will likely pursue trades so that Seattle doesn't select Dumba or Vince Dunn. If making the playoffs during the first year is the Kraken's goal, Skjei will be their selection.

 

[cptjeff]

In all the talk of who the Canes are going to lose on the blue line in terms of the expansion draft, there’s also an intriguing decision to be made on the last 2 forward protection slots. Making the obvious assumption that Staal, Aho, Svechnikov, Teravainen and Trocheck occupy the first 5 slots, who out of Niederreiter, Foegele and Fast get the last 2?

Were it up to me, Fast would get a slot due to his contract alone. The tough decision comes down to Niederreiter and Foegele. Will Foegele be a tough re-sign? Is Niederreiter’s current level of production sustainable?

In the end, I’d give the last spot to Foegele, and if Niederreiter got picked, well you have the gift of $5M in cap space to use on Hamilton’s extension and you hope a guy on an ELC (Jarvis, Rees, Suzuki, whoever) is ready to play top 9 minutes or that Foegele can finally produce at a 40pt/2nd line winger level.

I would absolutely give that last spot to Nino. Sustainable or not, Foegele has never been able to come even close to touching Nino's level of skill and current production. It's much better to gamble on a guy who's done it before versus a guy who never has.

 

[GoldiFox]

I see no reason to protect Nino. Seattle won't take him with 1 year left at $5.4 million. And if for some reason they do, his Cap can be readily used elsewhere. I'd much rather lose Nino than Skjei for the same $$, if it came down to the two.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I see no reason to protect Nino. Seattle won't take him with 1 year left at $5.4 million. And if for some reason they do, his Cap can be readily used elsewhere. I'd much rather lose Nino than Skjei if it came down to the two.

Seattle would easily choose Nino over Skjei. The forward market isn't nearly as deep as the defensive market. IMO Nino is a must-protect, because when he's playing like this, his contract is good value. Again, Skjei is a luxury piece for us when you consider Jake Bean being there. Not saying that his loss wouldn't hurt, but we have the reserves there to still have a good top-4 without him. If Bean isn't good enough, the Canes have one of the best farm pools in the league to make another deadline deal for a LHD.

 

[The Faulker 27]

McGinn is going to want a raise, and quite simply, if we want to keep more valuable players, even if his price *is* reasonable, we're not going to be able to afford him if we want to have room to keep guys like Trocheck down the line.

If we can keep him at his current salary, fine. But we won't be able to, so moving on is probably best.

Yeah, I realize its highly unlikely, but for me, he's up there in terms of players I've enjoyed watching.

 

[Svechhammer]

If we come out of the expansion draft with Seattle claiming someone other than one of our defensemen, consider it a huge win for us and move on. That pool for us is much more replaceable going forward than defense, which our prospect pool is actually getting slightly thin regarding

 

[spockBokk]

I see no reason to protect Nino. Seattle won't take him with 1 year left at $5.4 million. And if for some reason they do, his Cap can be readily used elsewhere. I'd much rather lose Nino than Skjei for the same $$, if it came down to the two.

My thoughts exactly.

I’m not too confident in Bean replacing Skjei’s tough minutes next year, so I’d much rather lose Niederreiter. Ideally, I’d like them to work out something with Francis whereby they’d be paying him to take on Gardiner, but that’s not very likely or simply would cost too much in terms of picks and/or prospects.

 

[Chrispy]

The Athletic put out a couple more mock expansion drafts this week. Skjei picked by both columnists, a brief mention of Gardiner as a cheaper option but zero mention of Geekie.

And I agree with @TheRillestPaulFenton that the forward market is not great when I look at the potential rosters they come up with. Someone like Nino is a potential top line forward who they can use to start the season. Worse case scenario is they flip him as a rental at the deadline and get more picks.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

If we come out of the expansion draft with Seattle claiming someone other than one of our defensemen, consider it a huge win for us and move on. That pool for us is much more replaceable going forward than defense, which our prospect pool is actually getting slightly thin regarding

If Chayka is there when we pick, I hope we deviate from our no defender in the 1st deal.