Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospects Thread 2018-19 - Part II
- Thread starter Maukkis
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- Jun 10, 2014
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Really encouraged by the comments on Samberg. For one thing, they indicate a pretty steep trajectory, considering where he was prior to last year. After 1.5 seasons of NCAA being pro ready or very near to it is a lot of progress. Even if that 'pro ready' comment meant AHL.
If he is AHL ready now could he reasonably be NHL ready by next Sept on that trajectory?
If he is AHL ready now could he reasonably be NHL ready by next Sept on that trajectory?
JetsFan815
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- Jan 16, 2012
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I saw someone comparing Samberg's stats to Jack Glover's in the previous "Prospects" thread, it's certainly an interesting case. I watched Samberg in last year's WJC and he looked great by my eyetest, I haven't watched the US-Slovakia game from yesterday but all the reviews about him were great, from Jets fans and non-Jets fan alike. Judging by his ice time in Game 1 and last year's WJC, Team USA coaches also love him too.
However, his PCS% (or his equivalent statistical model output that aims to project prospects' NHL potential based on available stats of past players) is probably pretty low by now. Josh Manson, Ryan McDonough and Brady Skjei are the only top-4 NHL d-men (although some Rangers will balk at Skjei being referred to as "top-4") that I can think of that were in the same ballpark stats wise at this stage in their NCAA careers.
I wonder what the reason is behind his NCAA numbers, is it just icetime?
However, his PCS% (or his equivalent statistical model output that aims to project prospects' NHL potential based on available stats of past players) is probably pretty low by now. Josh Manson, Ryan McDonough and Brady Skjei are the only top-4 NHL d-men (although some Rangers will balk at Skjei being referred to as "top-4") that I can think of that were in the same ballpark stats wise at this stage in their NCAA careers.
I wonder what the reason is behind his NCAA numbers, is it just icetime?
- Mar 10, 2010
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I am notmally a big fan of the PCS model but in this case I am going to defer to my eye test. I love how Samberg plays the game and it will transfer nicely to the NHL soon. He may not put up big points but he’s going to be a really solid D man for us.
It's partly a system thing at UMD, I think. Other than a small waterbug D like Perunovich, few young D in that program score much. But for me, just watching Samberg against the best of his age group shows that he has plenty of skill and a game fit for the NHL. For what it's worth, he now has 5 points in 8 WJHC-20 games, and he looked very involved and effective with the puck to me.
My guess/hope is he completes the year in the NCAA, spends next season on the Moose with a little spot duty as an injury replacement and then is ready for the big time the following season.
Gil Fisher
Registered User
That fits well with a Muzzin addition.
I would agree if the Jets weren't so thin on LD. He might be better than Chiarot by next season, and they'll need to move Kulikov for cap reasons. I think he might be able to make the jump...
You need to take into account my dream of trading for Jake Muzzin at the TD to shore up the LHD this season and next
- Jun 10, 2014
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Yes, that is a more realistic expectation. But accepting the comments at face value indicates a trajectory that might have him playing at a higher level sooner. Some pretty solid observers are gushing.
As long as we don’t have to give up Samberg to get him.You need to take into account my dream of trading for Jake Muzzin at the TD to shore up the LHD this season and next
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IMO Unless Niku improves his defense he will struggle to make the Jets as long as Maurice is coach. Paul is ok with guys that struggle as long as they are bigger. I don’t see Paul playing a small soft offensive D man like Niku over a guy like Stanley if he has a choice.
Sucks to be Sami but he is going to have to up his D game to make it based on how we roll.
- Jun 10, 2014
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I think the PCS method will consistently identify good prospects. It won't necessarily identify the best prospects. It won't necessarily find all of the good prospects.
With Samberg, we are looking at a somewhat unconventional path to the NHL. We have a very small sample in the USHL where we can make good comparisons but the sample is so small that it is almost worthless. We are left with a total of 57 games in the NCAA and 8 games in the WJC. Not much really.
So far this year he is scoring at about the same rate as last year in NCAA. He might very well triple that rate for the rest of this season. With small samples, that wouldn't be too surprising.
Couldn't agree more. I've liked the kid since the day we drafted him and he has been on a steep development curve since.As long as we don’t have to give up Samberg to get him.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I would argue Samberg is a safer bet to have a long career as a top 4 defenseman, while Niku has a higher ceiling due to his offensive skills if he can ever figure out how to play consistently good hockey in his own zone.
Agree. But I thought the Jets had a "size bias" in their drafting...
In any case, too bad he didn't last until their 2nd round pick.
Agree. Samberg seems like a surer bet for a long top-4 career, but Niku has higher end skill. I'd be happier if Niku was dominating more this season, but I suppose he might have some demotion malaise at this point.
This has me a little worried. You'd really like him to get on his horse on with a mission to prove he is an NHL player. We saw that with Connor last season and it didn't take him long to cement himself as a top 6 winger when he got another shot.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Agree. But I thought the Jets had a "size bias" in their drafting...
In any case, too bad he didn't last until their 2nd round pick.
Well some were against Perunovich... I'll let you guess why...
If it wasn't for a Matty P injury we might not have seen Connor at all at that point. I think it takes a bit more for a defencemen, especially an offensive defencemen to make a roster then a winger. Especially when they aren't getting PP time. Which is pretty much the spot you want to put your offensively minded D in. It's where guys like Ghost, Krug, Girard, Sergachev, Butcher, Lajoie really shine. Then eventually as they get more experience in the NHL they can take on bigger roles but until then, they are wasted if you aren't using them for their talents. Niku was 50/50 zone starts and was getting zero PP time. It's understandable when you are deep on the backend. But it's what he's good at. It's like having Vlasic on your team and never having him kill a penalty.
I've always believed this.
6' 4" and 215 and 19 years old? I truly believe he is the best prospect we have right now including Vaseline.
Niku is a really offensive minded player but we have Buff, JMo and Trouba/Myers for O. I'd rather have a more defense-first type of D man. JMo, Samberg and Niku are a nice D corps on the left side. Too bad that #@$^# Trouba wants out.
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