Winnipeg Jets Prospect Thread (Part XI)

[CaptainChef]

Ehlers appears to be adjusting to being keyed on - nice to see progress in his game via adversity.

This started with me replying to a post talking about prospects coming next year to the effect that we should not expect any rush of prospects. I don't expect Ehlers next year, nor Petan either. Morrissey is maybe 50/50. Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry not withstanding I expect the Jets to bring their prospects along very slowly. Remember how many people wanted Scheifele kept in his 1st year? and again in his 2nd? In hindsight, and reading between the lines the signs were there that all 3 would be kept precisely when they were. It is too early to tell if any player will be in that position next TC but so far there is none. I expect Morrissey to pick up his game as the season progresses. If so he probably comes to next TC penciled on to the roster but I don't see anyone else and he is still uncertain.
.

Bringing this in from another thread cause prob belongs here.

Really Mort -- can't imagine the Jets going forward without Ehlers or Petan next year. And Morrisey being only 50/50!!

I seriously hoping you were just taking a negative view because if 2 of those 3 don't make it, I'll be mighty surprised. Then again, we're talking Jets here, and next year they will still have Thorbs, Pavs & Stu (I think) under contract for 2 more years, so I suppose they might just extend their fans patience out to that extent?

A club resistant to change & if we're anywhere within earshot of a playoff spot, there may be little change this trade deadline & offseason again (Fro out & Burmi in; that might be about Chevy's speed)

 

[jetdiehard]

I think we have a great one in Tucker Poolman.
A big 6-3 210 defenceman with UND.

 

[truck]

I think we have a great one in Tucker Poolman.
A big 6-3 210 defenceman with UND.

At this point I am hopeful that he will earn a pro contract one day and develop into a depth defender. There is not really any reason to think he will be great. I would love to see it though.

I'd currently put him as the Jets 5th best defensive prospects behind:
Morrissey
Glover
Kostalek
Kichton

 

[ps241]

Bringing this in from another thread cause prob belongs here.

Really Mort -- can't imagine the Jets going forward without Ehlers or Petan next year. And Morrisey being only 50/50!!

I seriously hoping you were just taking a negative view because if 2 of those 3 don't make it, I'll be mighty surprised. Then again, we're talking Jets here, and next year they will still have Thorbs, Pavs & Stu (I think) under contract for 2 more years, so I suppose they might just extend their fans patience out to that extent?

A club resistant to change & if we're anywhere within earshot of a playoff spot, there may be little change this trade deadline & offseason again (Fro out & Burmi in; that might be about Chevy's speed)

So hard to predict though Troubabooster.

Look at Ryan Strome who was drafted in Scheif's year 2011. I think his pedigree is as high if not higher than any of the Jets guys you listed and he went back to junior for 2 full season's after his draft then went to the AHL for half a season before making the jump. Finally this year he is in his first full NHL season and he is kicking ass. Every prospect is on their own path up the mountain and there is a chance none of those guys are on the Jets next season. Now there is also a chance one or more of them make it but we can't rush guys just because we have organizational needs.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bringing this in from another thread cause prob belongs here.

Really Mort -- can't imagine the Jets going forward without Ehlers or Petan next year. And Morrisey being only 50/50!!

I seriously hoping you were just taking a negative view because if 2 of those 3 don't make it, I'll be mighty surprised. Then again, we're talking Jets here, and next year they will still have Thorbs, Pavs & Stu (I think) under contract for 2 more years, so I suppose they might just extend their fans patience out to that extent?

A club resistant to change & if we're anywhere within earshot of a playoff spot, there may be little change this trade deadline & offseason again (Fro out & Burmi in; that might be about Chevy's speed)

They are being very measured and patient to a fault in their development. I expect Ehlers to have to finish his normal junior career just like Scheifele did. That means he will come the year after next. Petan will have to be spectacular next TC to avoid the AHL. He was not an early 1st pick so some AHL time is the norm. Also, I suspect PMo has a bias for size so the small guy has to be just a little bit better to make it. Morrissey I had expected to make it this year. When he didn't I assumed he would make it next year but his slow start has me doubting. If he regresses a bit I think he will also go to the AHL for a while. If he gets it together and picks up where he left off last year then I expect he will make it next year. That's why I called it 50/50. So if Morrissey doesn't pick it up we could very well have 0 rookies next year. If Hellboy keeps playing like he has lately maybe they buyout Pavs and we have H & H in goal for 1 rookie.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. I could see Petan at 3LW and a 4th line of Galiardi, Lowry, Lipon next year giving us a better team with Pavs backing up Hutch in goal. But the slow pace is what I think is consistent with everything Chevy has done the last 6 months. Look at the term he has given to players at the bottom of our depth chart. I see Ehlers and Morrissey the year after next and Petan the year after that, maybe. There are a few others that might have a chance by then but it is too soon to say, depends on their progress in the A. I think the plan is to give all but the most outstanding prospects a thorough apprenticeship in the minors before they are given a chance to make the Jets. 3 years from now when we have an injury we will have 2-3 strong prospects playing their 2-3-4th year in the AHL ready to step right in to the vacancy. Not career AHL players but actual NHL prospects. The 3 years in between are going to continue to be frustrating. At least that is the plan, IMO.

 

[truck]

They are being very measured and patient to a fault in their development. I expect Ehlers to have to finish his normal junior career just like Scheifele did. That means he will come the year after next. Petan will have to be spectacular next TC to avoid the AHL. He was not an early 1st pick so some AHL time is the norm. Also, I suspect PMo has a bias for size so the small guy has to be just a little bit better to make it. Morrissey I had expected to make it this year. When he didn't I assumed he would make it next year but his slow start has me doubting. If he regresses a bit I think he will also go to the AHL for a while. If he gets it together and picks up where he left off last year then I expect he will make it next year. That's why I called it 50/50. So if Morrissey doesn't pick it up we could very well have 0 rookies next year. If Hellboy keeps playing like he has lately maybe they buyout Pavs and we have H & H in goal for 1 rookie.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. I could see Petan at 3LW and a 4th line of Galiardi, Lowry, Lipon next year giving us a better team with Pavs backing up Hutch in goal. But the slow pace is what I think is consistent with everything Chevy has done the last 6 months. Look at the term he has given to players at the bottom of our depth chart. I see Ehlers and Morrissey the year after next and Petan the year after that, maybe. There are a few others that might have a chance by then but it is too soon to say, depends on their progress in the A. I think the plan is to give all but the most outstanding prospects a thorough apprenticeship in the minors before they are given a chance to make the Jets. 3 years from now when we have an injury we will have 2-3 strong prospects playing their 2-3-4th year in the AHL ready to step right in to the vacancy. Not career AHL players but actual NHL prospects. The 3 years in between are going to continue to be frustrating. At least that is the plan, IMO.

Patient to a fault? How many of these kids have they ruined?

If the team can't / won't improve by other means, developing prospects properly is a must. The only fault would be wrecking a player and I am not sure this has happened with anyof their picks.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Patient to a fault? How many of these kids have they ruined?

Zach Yuen?

 

[Mathil8]

Zach Yuen?

How is he an example of ruining a prospect via development wrt keeping in juniors too long or rushing?

 

[Aavco Cup]

How is he an example of ruining a prospect via development wrt keeping in juniors too long or rushing?

Well it's either him or Sutter since I don't consider anyone else that this org has drafted ruined. I think that development theory has been grossly overstated here. The Red Wings do a good job of not ruining their prospects. Babcock said last week he expects Mantha to play the whole year in Grand Rapids. I think rushing prospect is the bigger problem in the NHL.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Patient to a fault? How many of these kids have they ruined?

If the team can't / won't improve by other means, developing prospects properly is a must. The only fault would be wrecking a player and I am not sure this has happened with anyof their picks.

Yup. The fault would be (for example) that we miss the playoffs this year for the lack of what some of those players could have brought earlier. If I had to choose between too fast and too slow I would be forced to opt for too slow. Less chance of actual harm that way. Although I wanted both Petan and Morrissey kept this year and still think we might have been a better team already if they had been I have to bow to the judgement of the professionals on this one. My limited view of them on TV and my limited expertise don't allow me to argue too much with them. My inclination is to continue to dispute their decision but a reality check does not support that. I hope I am wrong in my assessment of the projected pace of change. Time will tell.

 

[Koonta]

Well it's either him or Sutter since I don't consider anyone else that this org has drafted ruined. I think that development theory has been grossly overstated here. The Red Wings do a good job of not ruining their prospects. Babcock said last week he expects Mantha to play the whole year in Grand Rapids. I think rushing prospect is the bigger problem in the NHL.

Lukas Sutter ruined his NHL career all by himself, the organization didn't have anything to do with that.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Lukas Sutter ruined his NHL career all by himself, the organization didn't have anything to do with that.

Who have they ruined? I can't think of anyone.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

I wouldn't be surprised if we only see one of Petan, Morissey and Ehlers make the team next year. Petan will probably be a project if anything. I suspect it will take him a few years in the AHL to adjust to the bigger bodies that can knock him off the puck much easier than what he is currently experiencing playing against kids in the WHL.

 

[Koonta]

Who have they ruined? I can't think of anyone.

I don't think they have ruined anyone either. You look at a team like the Oilers and wonder what they're doing with Draisaitl and their plans for him, talk about subjecting a kid to a whole bunch of losing.

 

[CaptainChef]

Who have they ruined? I can't think of anyone.

Have mixed feelings on the ruining business. If you're as crappy as Edmonton and you keep rushing guys up into key positions, yes that may be ruining some of them.

But you can also seriously ruin a guys chances by keeping him in Jr in a situation where they have little to gain and little room for advancement on a crappy team. I'm not overly convinced they have not ruined Petan's chances of ever making a significant contribution here -- I really wish they'd have given him a chance this year because it may be a long time before he ever makes it now. Perhaps if his confidence wanes any, being so small, and having so many other smallish prospects coming up, his chance could never again be better.

As for goalie prospects, I also think you can wait too long and have all their productive years behind them before they make it. That Macleans article they had on here recently said goalies mature a lot earlier than was previously thought - I forget was it at 23-24. Certainly seems like that is the case with many (that they have their most productive years before 26), so I think you can easily wait too long and be too patient with goalie prospects. Just glad we gave Hutch a shot now -- just wish he'd get a decent shot.

 

[Sweech]

I don't think they have ruined anyone either. You look at a team like the Oilers and wonder what they're doing with Draisaitl and their plans for him, talk about subjecting a kid to a whole bunch of losing.

Agreed. Some picks ended up as duds (and that's to be expected) but I can't say anyone has been ruined by the team from a development stand point.

No one that they've picked at least. Some of the old Atlanta prospects may have been mishandled, but who knows?

 

[Sweech]

Have mixed feelings on the ruining business. If you're as crappy as Edmonton and you keep rushing guys up into key positions, yes that may be ruining some of them.

But you can also seriously ruin a guys chances by keeping him in Jr in a situation where they have little to gain and little room for advancement on a crappy team. I'm not overly convinced they have not ruined Petan's chances of ever making a significant contribution here -- I really wish they'd have given him a chance this year because it may be a long time before he ever makes it now. Perhaps if his confidence wanes any, being so small, and having so many other smallish prospects coming up, his chance could never again be better.

As for goalie prospects, I also think you can wait too long and have all their productive years behind them before they make it. That Macleans article they had on here recently said goalies mature a lot earlier than was previously thought - I forget was it at 23-24. Certainly seems like that is the case with many (that they have their most productive years before 26), so I think you can easily wait too long and be too patient with goalie prospects. Just glad we gave Hutch a shot now -- just wish he'd get a decent shot.

I think you're being a little melodramatic about Nic Petan. I seriously doubt that sending him back this year has suddenly ruined his chances of now ever playing in the NHL. I agree he didn't have much, if anything to learn in the WHL, but I also doubt it will be a huge hindrance on his development.

Or do you think Petan is that frail of a prospect? If he had suffered a big injury at all in the next few years causing him to miss close to a year would he suddenly fail to ever become anything in your mind?

 

[truck]

Have mixed feelings on the ruining business. If you're as crappy as Edmonton and you keep rushing guys up into key positions, yes that may be ruining some of them.

But you can also seriously ruin a guys chances by keeping him in Jr in a situation where they have little to gain and little room for advancement on a crappy team. I'm not overly convinced they have not ruined Petan's chances of ever making a significant contribution here -- I really wish they'd have given him a chance this year because it may be a long time before he ever makes it now. Perhaps if his confidence wanes any, being so small, and having so many other smallish prospects coming up, his chance could never again be better.

As for goalie prospects, I also think you can wait too long and have all their productive years behind them before they make it. That Macleans article they had on here recently said goalies mature a lot earlier than was previously thought - I forget was it at 23-24. Certainly seems like that is the case with many (that they have their most productive years before 26), so I think you can easily wait too long and be too patient with goalie prospects. Just glad we gave Hutch a shot now -- just wish he'd get a decent shot.

I agree with the goalie thing,but there is also sort of the nature of tye position. There are so few spots available that tryouts are hard to come by. Tryouts are tough too. Unless a goalie has a long leash via pedigree they NEED a hot start.

I am not sure this problem happens a lot with forwards unless the team is stacked.

 

[SnipeTopCheese]

Lukas Sutter ruined his NHL career all by himself, the organization didn't have anything to do with that.

I got to watch Sutter play as a member of the Saskatoon Blades for a year and had mixed reviews of him. Firstly I couldn't believe he was a 2nd round pick, I thought he was more of 4th-5th round type of guy IF THAT. The only major upside to Sutter was his penalty killing skills and his willingness to play the tough minutes against teams top lines. Unfortunately if you're going to be a penalty killer you need to stay out of the box and I've never seen a player take so many senseless penalties than Sutter. After he was drafted by the Jets he seemed to decline every year as well.

 

[Mathil8]

Well it's either him or Sutter since I don't consider anyone else that this org has drafted ruined. I think that development theory has been grossly overstated here. The Red Wings do a good job of not ruining their prospects. Babcock said last week he expects Mantha to play the whole year in Grand Rapids. I think rushing prospect is the bigger problem in the NHL.

I just mean I dont think we've ruined any prospects via development thus far. Sutter and Yuen were just duds; we didnt get to a point with either of them where development choices had to be made. When it came time to sign ELCs we just elected to not sign them.

 

[CaptainChef]

I think you're being a little melodramatic about Nic Petan. I seriously doubt that sending him back this year has suddenly ruined his chances of now ever playing in the NHL. I agree he didn't have much, if anything to learn in the WHL, but I also doubt it will be a huge hindrance on his development.

Or do you think Petan is that frail of a prospect? If he had suffered a big injury at all in the next few years causing him to miss close to a year would he suddenly fail to ever become anything in your mind?

Just think he could be borderline going forward for some time because he's small and we have other small skilled prospects. i know he could have made it and most likely would have been right in their with the rest of our top 9 -- just not convinced if that opportunity comes again for a few years unless he continues to progress as he has (haven't seen evidence of that this year)

 

[KingBogo]

They are being very measured and patient to a fault in their development. I expect Ehlers to have to finish his normal junior career just like Scheifele did. That means he will come the year after next. Petan will have to be spectacular next TC to avoid the AHL. He was not an early 1st pick so some AHL time is the norm. Also, I suspect PMo has a bias for size so the small guy has to be just a little bit better to make it. Morrissey I had expected to make it this year. When he didn't I assumed he would make it next year but his slow start has me doubting. If he regresses a bit I think he will also go to the AHL for a while. If he gets it together and picks up where he left off last year then I expect he will make it next year. That's why I called it 50/50. So if Morrissey doesn't pick it up we could very well have 0 rookies next year. If Hellboy keeps playing like he has lately maybe they buyout Pavs and we have H & H in goal for 1 rookie.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. I could see Petan at 3LW and a 4th line of Galiardi, Lowry, Lipon next year giving us a better team with Pavs backing up Hutch in goal. But the slow pace is what I think is consistent with everything Chevy has done the last 6 months. Look at the term he has given to players at the bottom of our depth chart. I see Ehlers and Morrissey the year after next and Petan the year after that, maybe. There are a few others that might have a chance by then but it is too soon to say, depends on their progress in the A. I think the plan is to give all but the most outstanding prospects a thorough apprenticeship in the minors before they are given a chance to make the Jets. 3 years from now when we have an injury we will have 2-3 strong prospects playing their 2-3-4th year in the AHL ready to step right in to the vacancy. Not career AHL players but actual NHL prospects. The 3 years in between are going to continue to be frustrating. At least that is the plan, IMO.

I don't see the Jets as patient to a fault, merely letting players develop at the most appropriate level/league until they are ready. Not counting Hutch, since goalies have a different development curve the 3 prospects that have cracked the Jets 2.0 roster are Scheifele, Trouba and Lowry. Trouba made it in year draft +1, Scheifele draft +2 and Lowry in draft +3. No pattern observable rather it appears to me each was added to the roster when they were ready to play a role. I expect the same with Ehlers, Morrissey and Petan and whatever other prospects are added to the mix.

From the 2014 draft the only 2 1st rounders who are playing regularly at the NHL level are Ekblad and Draisaitl. And the only one who looks ready is Ekblad. On the Oilers board one of the most common discussions is "why are they rushing Draisaitl" when it is obvious he isn't ready. By most observers Draisaitl would be considered as an elite prospect. It is okay not to be ready at 18 yo.

From the 2013 draft 14 1st rounders and all 2nd rounders have yet to play a shift in the NHL. It is okay not to be ready at 19 yo.

It may be frustrating, but letting your players develop is a necessity. IMO what would be frustrating his having the board turn on these guys for under achieving and calling them busts because we started forcing them into roster spots before they are ready.

 

[Koonta]

I wouldn't worry about Petan going forward moreso than any other prospect. True he didn't have anything to learn in junior this year but I can't see his development being hindered at all. He will play in another WJC this time on home soil may get some AHL time at the end of the year if the Ice Caps make it in and Portland exits the playoffs early.

As far as him not getting another chance for a few years it's not like we are a very deep team, he'll have a chance and if not right away he'll get to show what he can do in the AHL. The kid to me has never shown that his size is any kind of issue with him getting pushed out of games and I suspect that even if he may take a short time to adjust in the A he will figure it out quick. He plays a real smart game.

 

[Troub North]

Hellebeast. 4-0 with a .975 save percentage to win the AHL player of the week.

 

[StronGeer]

Hellebeast. 4-0 with a .975 save percentage to win the AHL player of the week.

Das nice.

For the lazy