Windsor Spitfires 2018 Offseason Thread

[OHL4Life]

If it was a pure draft based on talent alone, I'd agree 1000000000% with you. But it isn't. It's very political. A London pick is more valuable than a Flint pick. It's just the way it is. No offence to London or Flint. But London can pick from 100% of the talent pool where as Flint may have 45% to choose from. Then add in the other factors I brought up about team needs and identifying players. All that lower pick does is improve a teams odds of selecting the player they want in the priority selection.

but many of those teams that were picking 11th where teams in the same situation as windsor, no reporting issues as far as we know, so this would have no impact on how they drafted. i dont believe that either london or flint where included in that. like i said, when you include so many data points, it takes out alot of varience and randomness that you describe, and just shows the facts. the difference between 5 and 11 is undeniable, and i think almost everyone would agree with that on the surface.

 

[OHL4Life]

For a guy who doesn't like believing me, and who doesn't want "to start a fight", you sure like pressing the same buttons every...single....time "

trolling noted and will be ignored.

im asking because you've never really addressed it and didn't over any type of 'substance with regards to your 'they will be fine' comment. as i have stated in the past, when you say 'they will be fine' for 6 years and they are not, 'they will be fine' doesn't really have value. i'm curious what actual facts you have to support your opinion, outside of 'they will be fine'.

 

[OHLTG]

2008 1st - Cam Fowler
2009 1st - Austen Brassard (who became part of the major deal)
2010 1st - Grant Webermin (though, we did get Rychel right after, which sort of made up for it)
2011 1st - Jordan Maletta
2012 1st - Josh Ho-Sang
2013 2nd - Ryan Moore
2014 1st - Logan Stanley
2015 1st - Gabriel Vilardi
2016 2nd - Connor Corcoran
2017 1st - Nathan Staios

Looking back...

Out of those, Webermin was the only true "miss" for us. Brassard and Maletta were both dealt to improve us and they went on to solid OHL careers. (perhaps not first-round careers, mind you). Ho-Sang (talent-wise), Moore, Stanley and Vilardi were all hits. Corcoran has the jury out on him, but you wouldn't go for his style of play in this year's draft anyway. Staios is looking like a potential stud, too.

We've drafted much better over the last few seasons, too, which gives hope for this coming draft.

 

[OHL4Life]

2008 1st - Cam Fowler
2009 1st - Austen Brassard (who became part of the major deal)
2010 1st - Grant Webermin (though, we did get Rychel right after, which sort of made up for it)
2011 1st - Jordan Maletta
2012 1st - Josh Ho-Sang
2013 2nd - Ryan Moore
2014 1st - Logan Stanley
2015 1st - Gabriel Vilardi
2016 2nd - Connor Corcoran
2017 1st - Nathan Staios

Looking back...

Out of those, Webermin was the only true "miss" for us. Brassard and Maletta were both dealt to improve us and they went on to solid OHL careers. (perhaps not first-round careers, mind you). Ho-Sang (talent-wise), Moore, Stanley and Vilardi were all hits. Corcoran has the jury out on him, but you wouldn't go for his style of play in this year's draft anyway. Staios is looking like a potential stud, too.

We've drafted much better over the last few seasons, too, which gives hope for this coming draft.

and what do you notice about those players. the only two forwards who would be deemed 'franchise leaders' where hosang and vilardi, and where were they drafted, in the top 5. stanley probably has outperformed his draft status, it depends on how you define the value that he brings. other guys such as maletta, moore where secondary players, valuable ones to an extent, but secondary players none the less.

your initial statement was that they would get a franchise type player at 11, nothing youve posted here supports that, all youve done is illustrate how hard it is to get those guys later in the 1st round.

 

[OHLTG]

No, what I said was "potential franchise-leading" player. Guys like Stanley, Vilardi, Ho-Sang, and even Staios all fit into that category (I'll even take Moore out of it for you). If you get a forward with Stanley's characteristics at 11, which is very possible, that's a huge get. I also showed how several other top-level players were drafted after the 11th pick, so it's not always where you pick, but how you scout. Are 5th overall players more likely to be "franchise" players? Yes. Does that mean we're in trouble with the 11th pick? No.

 

[OHL4Life]

No, what I said was "potential franchise-leading" player. Guys like Stanley, Vilardi, Ho-Sang, and even Staios all fit into that category (I'll even take Moore out of it for you). If you get a forward with Stanley's characteristics at 11, which is very possible, that's a huge get. I also showed how several other top-level players were drafted after the 11th pick, so it's not always where you pick, but how you scout. Are 5th overall players more likely to be "franchise" players? Yes. Does that mean we're in trouble with the 11th pick? No.

i would hope that you'd take moore out, he's a great get where they got him but hes playing on the 2nd line in hamilton. thats a complimentary piece, not a leading one. lets also wait a bit before calling staios a top guy, he was outscored by defenceman drafted behind him. could be a great player, but well see.

you selected 8 players at random over a 10 year period, there's nothing predicable when you do that, its simply hindsight scouting. there will always be players who exceed where they are drafted, weve seen it every year, but thats less then one player per year. if you wanted to do a true study of value in the 11-20th picks, youd look at everyone and the odds that those players develop into top 5/10 players in their age group, not just cheery pick. looking at everything gives you a better read on the true look at something, not just picking the ones you want to look at. the odds of finding a player like suzuki/marner in the 11/20 are incredibility small when you look at all the data.

even the guys that you mentioned, only monahan/marner/suzuki are 1a options on their teams, ritchie was on the 2nd line in niagara when they made the final (heck of a second line player), cassells was a 2nd line guy, salitruo was on london's third line last year. raddysh was with strome, so perhaps thats an outlier, but he wasn't the top producer there, even in the soo he's the third guy behind frost and katchuk. theres no debating you'll get a quality player, just not nearly as good as what you get in the top 5.


all everyone is saying is that you have a much better opportunity to grab guy that leads you to a championship in the top 5 of a draft, not the 11-20. looking at what the spits have gotten after the 5th pick, it shows that. you can 'feel' that they are going to do great, but again, youve felt that for 6 years and weve seen what value 'feelings' had.

 

[randomhero4life]

No room for error in terms of Spit's picks @ this years draft. Sometimes you just gotta hope scouting has done their homework and cross you fingers. Not having an early pick.....does concern me though....imho

 

[randomhero4life]

i would hope that you'd take moore out, he's a great get where they got him but hes playing on the 2nd line in hamilton. thats a complimentary piece, not a leading one. lets also wait a bit before calling staios a top guy, he was outscored by defenceman drafted behind him. could be a great player, but well see.

you selected 8 players at random over a 10 year period, there's nothing predicable when you do that, its simply hindsight scouting. there will always be players who exceed where they are drafted, weve seen it every year, but thats less then one player per year. if you wanted to do a true study of value in the 11-20th picks, youd look at everyone and the odds that those players develop into top 5/10 players in their age group, not just cheery pick. looking at everything gives you a better read on the true look at something, not just picking the ones you want to look at. the odds of finding a player like suzuki/marner in the 11/20 are incredibility small when you look at all the data.

even the guys that you mentioned, only monahan/marner/suzuki are 1a options on their teams, ritchie was on the 2nd line in niagara when they made the final (heck of a second line player), cassells was a 2nd line guy, salitruo was on london's third line last year. raddysh was with strome, so perhaps thats an outlier, but he wasn't the top producer there, even in the soo he's the third guy behind frost and katchuk. theres no debating you'll get a quality player, just not nearly as good as what you get in the top 5.


all everyone is saying is that you have a much better opportunity to grab guy that leads you to a championship in the top 5 of a draft, not the 11-20. looking at what the spits have gotten after the 5th pick, it shows that. you can 'feel' that they are going to do great, but again, youve felt that for 6 years and weve seen what value 'feelings' had.

"all everyone is saying is that you have a much better opportunity to grab guy that leads you to a championship in the top 5 of a draft, not the 11-20. looking at what the spits have gotten after the 5th pick, it shows that."

100 % accurate!!
​

 

[OHL4Life]

No room for error in terms of Spit's picks @ this years draft. Sometimes you just gotta hope scouting has done their homework and cross you fingers. Not having an early pick.....does concern me though....imho

i think thats more then fair and all anyone is saying. i think the point brought up earlier (my appologies to who posted i cant remember) that the spits themselves wanted the higher pick, thats why baier started yesterday. cant blame the kids, they want to win and thats what you want out of them, but you dont start baier if you feel its a 'must win'.

100 % accurate!!

thank you,

 

[youngblood10]

i would hope that you'd take moore out, he's a great get where they got him but hes playing on the 2nd line in hamilton. thats a complimentary piece, not a leading one. lets also wait a bit before calling staios a top guy, he was outscored by defenceman drafted behind him. could be a great player, but well see.

you selected 8 players at random over a 10 year period, there's nothing predicable when you do that, its simply hindsight scouting. there will always be players who exceed where they are drafted, weve seen it every year, but thats less then one player per year. if you wanted to do a true study of value in the 11-20th picks, youd look at everyone and the odds that those players develop into top 5/10 players in their age group, not just cheery pick. looking at everything gives you a better read on the true look at something, not just picking the ones you want to look at. the odds of finding a player like suzuki/marner in the 11/20 are incredibility small when you look at all the data.

even the guys that you mentioned, only monahan/marner/suzuki are 1a options on their teams, ritchie was on the 2nd line in niagara when they made the final (heck of a second line player), cassells was a 2nd line guy, salitruo was on london's third line last year. raddysh was with strome, so perhaps thats an outlier, but he wasn't the top producer there, even in the soo he's the third guy behind frost and katchuk. theres no debating you'll get a quality player, just not nearly as good as what you get in the top 5.


all everyone is saying is that you have a much better opportunity to grab guy that leads you to a championship in the top 5 of a draft, not the 11-20. looking at what the spits have gotten after the 5th pick, it shows that.

Taylor Hall was the last player drafted in the top 5 to win a championship on the team that drafted him. So any theory that having a top 5 pick is a prerequisite to a championship is a flawed one. Championship teams draft well in several rounds over the course of two or three drafts generally.

Edit: Gabe Vilardi would be the most recent but some don't recognize the Memorial Cup win.

 

[OHLTG]

i would hope that you'd take moore out, he's a great get where they got him but hes playing on the 2nd line in hamilton

That's more on Hamilton than it is on Moore.

you selected 8 players at random over a 10 year period, there's nothing predicable when you do that, its simply hindsight scouting

This can be said about "misses" too, though. No GM goes into a draft thinking "this player is going to be a miss, but maybe we can change that." There's proof that players taken afte 11th can become elites.

salitruo was on london's third line last year. raddysh was with strome, so perhaps thats an outlier, but he wasn't the top producer there, even in the soo he's the third guy behind frost and katchuk. theres no debating you'll get a quality player, just not nearly as good as what you get in the top 5.

Salituro says more about London than him. Raddysh had 73pts in his second season, 103 in this third, and 83 in 58 games now. He's doing something right. Yeah, he's on the third line in SSM, but that says a lot about SSM.

Getting the 5th pick is huge, but we can't discount the 11th pick, either. Draft well and good things will happen. I also never used the term "feeling" for our pick. I said "I'm confident." Difference.

 

[hockeylegend11]

Maybe I missed it,is there a comp pick in the 1st of this year's draft, only 1 I can think of when Missy drafted Jack Hughes 8th and he didn't report, which explains Windsor picking 11th,if not Windsor is choosing 10th not 11th as being discussed.

 

[randomhero4life]

Any of you guys gonna make the trip to Sarnia?

 

[OHL4Life]

That's more on Hamilton than it is on Moore.



This can be said about "misses" too, though. No GM goes into a draft thinking "this player is going to be a miss, but maybe we can change that." There's proof that players taken afte 11th can become elites.



Salituro says more about London than him. Raddysh had 73pts in his second season, 103 in this third, and 83 in 58 games now. He's doing something right. Yeah, he's on the third line in SSM, but that says a lot about SSM.

Getting the 5th pick is huge, but we can't discount the 11th pick, either. Draft well and good things will happen. I also never used the term "feeling" for our pick. I said "I'm confident." Difference.

the point your missing is that these elite players you mentioned couldn’t or didn’t play 1st line because there where players drafted higher playing ahead of them. Only 3 guys you mentioned in 10 years are the best players on their teams. That’s 3 in 10 years.

You need that depth to win, we saw Erie last year, and the only way to truly know your going to get that depth is drafting players at the top of the draft and then trading for guys you mentioned to fill out the depth.

And again, youve been feeling ‘confident, goos’ Whatever for the last 6 years, at what point do you say ‘maybe my feelings don’t equal facts’.

 

[OHL4Life]

Taylor Hall was the last player drafted in the top 5 to win a championship on the team that drafted him. So any theory that having a top 5 pick is a prerequisite to a championship is a flawed one. Championship teams draft well in several rounds over the course of two or three drafts generally.

Edit: Gabe Vilardi would be the most recent but some don't recognize the Memorial Cup win.

Well off the top of my head Strone was taken 2nd and Erie won last year. Fabbri was taken 6th, so splitting hairs. Perhaps we should say top 6?

I can look more into it if you like

 

[aresknights]

There will most definitely be solid players avail at the 10 pick and onwards thru the early 2nd rd.
It will just depend on which couple players they have targeted, and which one(s) are still on the board come their pick.
Just wont have a shot at the 3/4 potential elites that will go top 5.
Byfield, Drysdale, Vierling were the 3 that impressed me most last week. But admittedly I had limited views this year.
There will definitely be some solid big scoring Fs left, if Windsor goes that way.

 

[aresknights]

I can recall Kingston saying they had a player you are familiar with Cody Morgan,whom they had rated 5th,and they got him 12th,this happens more then u know, who can say till things unfold,better to wait 2-3 years,what would say if the 2nd rounder turns out better or equal to the guy drafted 5th,and if it's a dman might be a real different story if Windsor was drafting a forward,too many variables to say definitely who is right.

If Kingston had Morgan rated #5 OA, Id question their scouting staff .
And ya know i really like the kid and his game. No dig at him.

Are Spits fans generally pleased with his play this year?

 

[Teflon]

Umm the whole argument is flawed, Windsor drafts 10th. Soooo let's start all over lol.

 

[hockeylegend11]

If Kingston had Morgan rated #5 OA, Id question their scouting staff .
And ya know i really like the kid and his game. No dig at him.

Are Spits fans generally pleased with his play this year?

Yes,I know I am will only get better,real good hockey sense, surprised me when he fought the other night, especially when he only 2 minutes in penalties all season,showed some gumption taking on someone 4 inches taller.

 

[OHLTG]

the point your missing is that these elite players you mentioned couldn’t or didn’t play 1st line because there where players drafted higher playing ahead of them.

No, I got your point. I just find it funny that we're discounting a player like Raddysh because he's on the third line.

You need that depth to win, we saw Erie last year, and the only way to truly know your going to get that depth is drafting players at the top of the draft and then trading for guys you mentioned to fill out the depth.

Just FYI - Erie had one player on their roster last year that was taken top-10 in the first round - Strome. That's including players acquired in trades.

Are Spits fans generally pleased with his play this year?

He looked nervous and tentative early on, but he's showing more creativity and awareness around the net. I think he's going to be a good one, just needs time.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

No room for error in terms of Spit's picks @ this years draft. Sometimes you just gotta hope scouting has done their homework and cross you fingers. Not having an early pick.....does concern me though....imho

Agreed and I think that's the point some have made.

 

[youngblood10]

Well off the top of my head Strone was taken 2nd and Erie won last year. Fabbri was taken 6th, so splitting hairs. Perhaps we should say top 6?

I can look more into it if you like

Good catch on Strome I always go off the top of my head too. Point remains Vilardi ,Fabbri (you can have that for argument sake) Hall and Strome in 9 years as many teams who haven't had that high end pick have still won Championships then the teams that have. If you can find more players to tip the balance I'll concede. But I don't think you'll find any more.

 

[member 71782]

So with the playoffs and the draft coming up the next few weeks should be interesting/entertaining.

Playoffs versus Sarnia, Sarnia wins in 6. Sarnia will have a couple of decisive victories but will have a few games where they are beatable. DiPietro will play a big role in Windsor getting 2 wins but he alone won't be enough to pull off an upset. Windsor as a whole doesn't have enough to take advantage of their opportunities.

The draft could be the most interesting/entertaining part of the coming weeks.

Does Windsor make any deals to add early picks, 2nd/3rd or does Rychel just try to fill in the missing 4th/5th?

Windsor is still dealing with a somewhat low stocked draft cupboard the next couple of drafts so any deals will open more holes that Rychel needs to fill.

A lot of teams missing early picks this year so I would think acquiring another 2nd/3rd could be expensive. Depending on who Windsor deals with, if anyone any potential deal(s) could be telling of secondary deals between the offseason and the deadline.

Looking at the draft order for the 2nd round and (who has the pick) any opinions on who we may see a deal(s) with?

1. Sudbury - (London)
2. Flint - (Flint)
3. Peterborough - (London)
4. Erie - (Owen Sound)
5. Saginaw - (Windsor)
6. Ottawa - (Saginaw)
7. Guelph - (Peterborough)
8. Mississauga - (Oshawa)
9. North Bay - (North Bay)
10. Windsor - (Sudbury)
11. Oshawa - (North Bay)
12. Niagara - (Kitchener)
13. Kingston - (Saginaw)
14. London - (Hamilton)
15. Owen Sound - (Ottawa)
16. Sarnia - (Mississauga)
17. Barrie - (Guelph)
18. Kitchener - (Hamilton)
19. Hamilton - (Guelph)
20. Sault Ste. Marie - (Kitchener)

 

[Yooper]

Del

 

[windsor7]

There will most definitely be solid players avail at the 10 pick and onwards thru the early 2nd rd.
It will just depend on which couple players they have targeted, and which one(s) are still on the board come their pick.
Just wont have a shot at the 3/4 potential elites that will go top 5.
Byfield, Drysdale, Vierling were the 3 that impressed me most last week. But admittedly I had limited views this year.
There will definitely be some solid big scoring Fs left, if Windsor goes that way.

Windsor better draft a good forward.
One that will actually shoot the puck.
Too many players passing the puck instead of shooting going on this team