Windsor Spitfires 2018 Offseason Thread

[Millpond]

I can recall Kingston saying they had a player you are familiar with Cody Morgan,whom they had rated 5th,and they got him 12th,this happens more then u know, .

Yes the Attack picked Nick Suzuki at 14.

 

[youngblood10]

I can recall Kingston saying they had a player you are familiar with Cody Morgan,whom they had rated 5th,and they got him 12th,this happens more then u know, who can say till things unfold,better to wait 2-3 years,what would say if the 2nd rounder turns out better or equal to the guy drafted 5th,and if it's a dman might be a real different story if Windsor was drafting a forward,too many variables to say definitely who is right.

Windsor should still find a very good player when they pick. The Knights selected Marner with the 19th overall pick. There are many examples of elite talent being selected past the 5th pick in the draft.

 

[aresknights]

I can recall Kingston saying they had a player you are familiar with Cody Morgan,whom they had rated 5th,and they got him 12th,this happens more then u know, who can say till things unfold,better to wait 2-3 years,what would say if the 2nd rounder turns out better or equal to the guy drafted 5th,and if it's a dman might be a real different story if Windsor was drafting a forward,too many variables to say definitely who is right.

Hhhhmmmm no answer to the ?, as usual.

Assumptions u make ("happens more than you know?" I know it happens lol)

#1-Move from 10 to 5 in the first.
#2 Or move up a couple spots in the 2nd and 3rd.
Do you honestly want to pretend any GM takes the 2nd option? (without hindsight)
I get winning games and teams should try. Honestly.

But #1 is the far better option.

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

Windsor should still find a very good player when they pick. The Knights selected Marner with the 19th overall pick. There are many examples of elite talent being selected past the 5th pick in the draft.

If you look at most of the Hounds current roster, Hayton and Raddysh are the only 1st round picks on the team...Kopacka, Gettinger, Frost, Katchouk, Verbeek etc. are all later round draft picks...takes a talented scouting crew to find the diamonds in the rough

 

[SpItFiReZ]

delete

 

[ohloutsider]

So the last game of the year Baier gets his first win - good for him. Not sure that was the plan when they started him in net but hey he won and we end up in 6th, go figure.

Player of the game - Liked what Smith brought he was in on all 3 golas. Baier got his first win but I'm going to give tis one to Staios. He stood out for me from the drop of the puck, never seen him play a game with so much energy and confidence. Once the puck got on his stick in our end it was skated out or a nice crisp pass to a forward. His best game all year. I'm hoping we can see more of this next year from him.

Starikov has taken a drop back last couple of games - seems to struggle in our end - like that he is trying skate the puck up more but he needs to win some more puck battles in our end first.

So Spits play Sarnia in the first round - Can't see Sarina losing this but it would take a let down by Sarnia and the Spits playing over their heads for the Spits to have a chance in any game - I think this will happen at least once and we will win 1 but it will be another year with a first round exit and Sarnia finally winning a round - if I'm not mistaken the last round they won was against the Spits so it has come full circle.

 

[stips]

It is going to take a couple of years to unfold, but not getting the 5th pick is going to be a negative!

 

[Ferda11]

So Spits play Sarnia in the first round - Can't see Sarina losing this but it would take a let down by Sarnia and the Spits playing over their heads for the Spits to have a chance in any game - I think this will happen at least once and we will win 1 but it will be another year with a first round exit and Sarnia finally winning a round - if I'm not mistaken the last round they won was against the Spits so it has come full circle.

You are not mistaken. Last time Sarnia won a playoff series was in 07/08 vs Windsor taking it in 5 games. We got swept by Kitchener in round two. That series was closer then 4-1 with at least two games going to OT. Stamkos was unhuman with 11 goals in the 5 games.

 

[Teflon]

As for draft spots any rated in the top 20 could end up in tenth spot, any of those players could be stars or misses. Once again your drafting a 15-16 year old. Lots can change. There is some talk about a euro player and the plan going in. Still lotsa shoulder shrugs regarding goalies too. I like the Sarnia matchup best but I don't believe it's a winnable series. Watch out for the attack I like what I'm seeing.

 

[OHL4Life]

with regards to the 5th overall pick vs 11th overall, the best way to assess is to look at the past and see what value both picks brought to their franchises.

heres the past 10 years worth of picks.

5th Overall Pick
James Livingston, Matt Duchene, Ryan Spooner, Justin Sefton, Mathew Campagna, Jordan Subban, Joshua Ho-Sang, Lawson Crouse, Michael McLeod, Zach Gallant, Ty Dellandrea

11th Overall Pick
Jared Staal, Peter Holland, Gregg Sutch, Carter Sandlak, Chris Marchese, Mitchell Dempsey, Damian Bourne, Blake Speers, Michael Pezzetta, Robbie Burt, Peter Stratis

i think theres a pretty easy call as to what gives you a better chance.

at the end of the day i think next year will be the top 5 pick year, theres only been 1 team that won an ohl championship/memorial cup who didnt see significant regression in the second year after the championship. theres no brown/luchuk/day group to help bank points next year.

 

[tomschman]

IMO, Spits management was playing for the 5th pick. Why else was Mikey on the bench. If this was a must win game, he would have played. Also, if it was a must win game, Boka would not have been out. No one can tell me that Bauer needed work and that is why he played. Nor can they tell me that Mikey was tired. The decision to play Bauer was inconsistent with the way the goaltender situation was treated all season.

However, once the game starts, the players will always play for the win. They can't worry about where the team will draft next year. The players are not only playing to win, they are playng for their future.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

I can recall Kingston saying they had a player you are familiar with Cody Morgan,whom they had rated 5th,and they got him 12th,this happens more then u know, who can say till things unfold,better to wait 2-3 years,what would say if the 2nd rounder turns out better or equal to the guy drafted 5th,and if it's a dman might be a real different story if Windsor was drafting a forward,too many variables to say definitely who is right.

If the guy drafted in the 2nd round is much better than the 1st round pick that doesn't help a rebuilding effort. What happens if your 2nd rounder flops and all you have is that 1 2nd rounder? There's a better chance of hitting a HR early in the 1st round than it is picking in the 2nd or 3rd round. Having multiple 2nd/3rd rounder is a good way to reduce the variability of not hitting on a player in said round. In Windsor's case all they have is a 1st/2nd/3rd, no 4th or 5th. If you want to win you need to hit on all 3.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

with regards to the 5th overall pick vs 11th overall, the best way to assess is to look at the past and see what value both picks brought to their franchises.

heres the past 10 years worth of picks.

5th Overall Pick
James Livingston, Matt Duchene, Ryan Spooner, Justin Sefton, Mathew Campagna, Jordan Subban, Joshua Ho-Sang, Lawson Crouse, Michael McLeod, Zach Gallant, Ty Dellandrea

11th Overall Pick
Jared Staal, Peter Holland, Gregg Sutch, Carter Sandlak, Chris Marchese, Mitchell Dempsey, Damian Bourne, Blake Speers, Michael Pezzetta, Robbie Burt, Peter Stratis

i think theres a pretty easy call as to what gives you a better chance.

at the end of the day i think next year will be the top 5 pick year, theres only been 1 team that won an ohl championship/memorial cup who didnt see significant regression in the second year after the championship. theres no brown/luchuk/day group to help bank points next year.

Beyond Speers and probably Holland that 11th pick overall is.

 

[OHL4Life]

IMO, Spits management was playing for the 5th pick. Why else was Mikey on the bench. If this was a must win game, he would have played. Also, if it was a must win game, Boka would not have been out. No one can tell me that Bauer needed work and that is why he played. Nor can they tell me that Mikey was tired. The decision to play Bauer was inconsistent with the way the goaltender situation was treated all season.

However, once the game starts, the players will always play for the win. They can't worry about where the team will draft next year. The players are not only playing to win, they are playng for their future.

i think your right. for the most part the spits management did the right things this year, i would have liked to see more picks brought in this year but at the end of the day you cant control what other teams offer. the only thing i think we can say that they failed on this year was the backup goaltender situation. how many of us feel comfortable with either baier or patton next year? had they given baier 3/4 more starts they probably do pick 5th and at least we know either way what he is. outside of that there are not many complaints. they just have little room for error in this years draft.

 

[randomhero4life]

Should be interesting to see what the Spit's can do in the free agent market also, maybe time to start looking @ QMJHL rosters again!! ......Maybe make a few calls to the Belle Tire U18 coaches too.....ya never know!! lol

 

[jmkrangers]

It's always bothered me that so many people in Canada care about the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament but the average person seems to know a lot less about the (far superior) CHL Playoffs and Memorial Cup (obviously this is because of the dramatic single-elimination bracket format of March Madness and all the media attention it gets). I've always thought it would be fun though to fill out some sort of CHL playoff bracket but since I've never really found a good way to do it online, I decided to try creating my own for this year. Although it's a bit complicated and not the most user-friendly, there's step-by-step instructions on the website that should help. So if want to give it a try go to: memorialcupbracket.weebly.com

 

[OHLTG]

As for draft spots any rated in the top 20 could end up in tenth spot, any of those players could be stars or misses. Once again your drafting a 15-16 year old. Lots can change. There is some talk about a euro player and the plan going in. Still lotsa shoulder shrugs regarding goalies too.

This echoes what I've been thinking. There are going to be hits-and-misses every year. We'll be fine with our pick.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

This echoes what I've been thinking. There are going to be hits-and-misses every year. We'll be fine with our pick.

Aren't you contradicting yourself by saying there will be hits-misses every year but they will be fine with their pick?

 

[OHLTG]

Aren't you contradicting yourself by saying there will be hits-misses every year but they will be fine with their pick?

No. There are hits-and-misses every year. I'm confident we'll be fine with ours (ie a "hit").

 

[RayzorIsDull]

No. There are hits-and-misses every year. I'm confident we'll be fine with ours (ie a "hit").

Did you miss the post by OHL4Life showing 10 year data of 5th pick and 11th? There's a huge gap in the caliber of those players.

 

[OHL4Life]

No. There are hits-and-misses every year. I'm confident we'll be fine with ours (ie a "hit").

again, im not trying to start a fight, im just trying to understand the thought prepossess.

the same thought process that you used the last 6 years saying 'everything will be fine' is the same one you are using now? i get the need to be positive, but outside of 'feeling' something, theres no evidence for it.

 

[youngblood10]

with regards to the 5th overall pick vs 11th overall, the best way to assess is to look at the past and see what value both picks brought to their franchises.

heres the past 10 years worth of picks.

5th Overall Pick
James Livingston, Matt Duchene, Ryan Spooner, Justin Sefton, Mathew Campagna, Jordan Subban, Joshua Ho-Sang, Lawson Crouse, Michael McLeod, Zach Gallant, Ty Dellandrea

11th Overall Pick
Jared Staal, Peter Holland, Gregg Sutch, Carter Sandlak, Chris Marchese, Mitchell Dempsey, Damian Bourne, Blake Speers, Michael Pezzetta, Robbie Burt, Peter Stratis

i think theres a pretty easy call as to what gives you a better chance.

at the end of the day i think next year will be the top 5 pick year, theres only been 1 team that won an ohl championship/memorial cup who didnt see significant regression in the second year after the championship. theres no brown/luchuk/day group to help bank points next year.

I don't think that comparing who was picked at each spot is a good way to measure. It's too flawed. The teams selecting had different reasons and needs for selecting who they did. If the team selecting 11th needed a forward for example they may have left a more prominent defenceman on the table. Or vice versa. Also the team making the selection at that pick may not be good at identifying winners or issues in players reporting than the team making that selection for that same pick in other years.
What the higher pick gives you is better odds to get the player your organization is targeting and it's up to the scouting staff to target the correct players.

 

[OHL4Life]

I don't think that comparing who was picked at each spot is a good way to measure. It's too flawed. The teams selecting had different reasons and needs for selecting who they did. If the team selecting 11th needed a forward for example they may have left a more prominent defenceman on the table. Or vice versa. Also the team making the selection at that pick may not be good at identifying winners or issues in players reporting than the team making that selection for that same pick in other years.
What the higher pick gives you is better odds to get the player your organization is targeting and it's up to the scouting staff to target the correct players.

thats why i used 10 years of data vs 2/3. many different teams with different value systems and different methodology, the higher the sample the less error or variance. i could do 20 (i looked at it) and the data is similar again, so i didnt bother making it more complicated. the returns of the 5th where much higher then the 11th, which is completely understandable and logical. all it does is confirm what most people would think, its really hard to get a franchise type of player in the outside of the top 5, no matter who is picking.

 

[youngblood10]

If it was a pure draft based on talent alone, I'd agree 1000000000% with you. But it isn't. It's very political. A London pick is more valuable than a Flint pick. It's just the way it is. No offence to London or Flint. But London can pick from 100% of the talent pool where as Flint may have 45% to choose from. Then add in the other factors I brought up about team needs and identifying players. All that lower pick does is improve a teams odds of selecting the player they want in the priority selection.

 

[OHLTG]

Did you miss the post by OHL4Life showing 10 year data of 5th pick and 11th? There's a huge gap in the caliber of those players.

I saw it. Wasn't looking to debate, really.

again, im not trying to start a fight, im just trying to understand the thought prepossess.

the same thought process that you used the last 6 years saying 'everything will be fine' is the same one you are using now? i get the need to be positive, but outside of 'feeling' something, theres no evidence for it.

For a guy who doesn't like believing me, and who doesn't want "to start a fight", you sure like pressing the same buttons every...single....time

Just for fun... here are some "hits" from beyond the 11th-pick over the last 10-years...

Freddie Hamilton, Brett Ritchie, Sean Monahan, Cole Cassells, Dante Salituro, Mitch Marner, Taylor Raddysh, Nick Suzuki, Nathan Dunkley

Having the 11th pick could land you a guy like one of the above. Draft properly and it won't be a "miss."