William Karlsson (expectations for next season)

[rangerssharks414]

What are your expectations for him next year? He came out of nowhere this year, but his shooting percentage is 23.6% at the moment.

The reason I ask is that I have him for a custom dynasty cap league where you give players contracts (the league votes if they're fair or not). I have basically no cap room, and I have to re-sign Karlsson. I signed Nikita Kucherov for four years at $8.5M per, for example. The league is a H2H points league that counts goals, assists, +/-, PIMs, game winners, shorthanded goals, faceoffs, hits and blocked shots (I think that's all).

I'm hoping that the cap goes up, but I'm not sure if it will. Since I really don't want to list my whole team, I guess I'm asking: What are your expectations for him next year?

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[Brockon]

As a fellow William Karlsson owner in a dynasty salary capped league, I'm curious about others' thoughts as well.

I'd be happy with him getting a contract for 5-7 years at 7-9 mil AAV similar to Nashville's Ryan Johansen (8 x8), and hope to see him consistently be better than 30G-30A-60P a year.

I don't believe his shooting percentage is sustainable. I believe Vegas regresses slightly moving forward. I don't think Karlsson is a PPG player, and assume he puts up somewhere closer to 0.8-0.9 ppg (65-75 pts) moving forward after this emotional inaugural season and contract year winds down. I'd love to be completely wrong, but I feel this could be his career high.

No, I don't have fancy analytics, or an inside source to substantiate any of the former paragraph - it's all a gut feeling from having watched a dozen Vegas games, reading up on hockey news, chatter, rumours and watching league trends over recent years.

 

[rangerssharks414]

As a fellow William Karlsson owner in a dynasty salary capped league, I'm curious about others' thoughts as well.

I'd be happy with him getting a contract for 5-7 years at 7-9 mil AAV similar to Nashville's Ryan Johansen (8 x8), and hope to see him consistently be better than 30G-30A-60P a year.

I don't believe his shooting percentage is sustainable. I believe Vegas regresses slightly moving forward. I don't think Karlsson is a PPG player, and assume he puts up somewhere closer to 0.8-0.9 ppg (65-75 pts) moving forward after this emotional inaugural season and contract year winds down. I'd love to be completely wrong, but I feel this could be his career high.

No, I don't have fancy analytics, or an inside source to substantiate any of the former paragraph - it's all a gut feeling from having watched a dozen Vegas games, reading up on hockey news, chatter, rumours and watching league trends over recent years.

Yeah, his shooting percentage definitely isn't sustainable. I don't think his next real life contract will be as big as you think.

 

[MasterMatt25]

I can see him getting 30mill for 5/6years. Realistically I don't think he'll match this season's point totals, but I'll happily be proven wrong. I can see him constantly getting 25goals/50 points a year

 

[M.C.G. 31]

I can see anywhere from 5 - 6.5 million per year.

Points wise, I see him around 55 points next season. I expect Vegas regression and his SH% to come back down to reality -- 20-25 goals and roughly the same number of assists.

 

[klassic]

23.3 SH% is highly unsustainable. If he shot at his career average this year he would have had 26 goals vs 43. He had ~80 more SOG than his career high. I expect the shots to stay high simply because of the make up of Vegas. He is in a better role with more TOI thus more SOG. But a regression is in order. I would not expect 40 goals again. Probably in the 23-28 range. Vegas will likely regress a bit as well.

 

[dsportsavvy235]

I expect nothing much from Karlsson. His shooting percentage isn't really sustainable.