Series Talk: WCSF Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers. (Series tied 3-3)

[Leonardo87]

Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers
WCSF

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[Three On Zero]

Went with Oilers in 5 games.

Canucks not having Demko is big. The step up from Nashville is too big of a difference. As great of a season the Canucks had I have a hard time seeing them beating Edmonton without their top 2 goalies.

Can the Canucks limit the shots as they did against Nashville? Just don't see it happening. If DeSmith or Demko can come back it can be a close series.

Edmonton seems primed. A nice and tidy 5 game series against the Kings. The big boys got their games in line. They're deeper than they've been in years past and Skinner has been fantastic. Their group has learned you can run out of gas and need short series to play past round 2.

I'd love to see a long series because both cities and fanbases are amazing. Canucks getting in for the first time in forever has awoken the market. Oilers fans have been bringing it for a while with this group.

No Demko, Pettersson Still hurt and Hughes banged up. You’d be silly to pick Vancouver in this series

 

[Oleksiak]

No Demko, Pettersson Still hurt and Hughes banged up. You’d be silly to pick Vancouver in this series

Has Edmonton somehow brought in an NHL defenceman other than Ekholm and given the C to someone who isn't a gutless floppper since the first round?

 

[Czechboy]

Absolutely, but the original post was already taken out of context by the poster. With McDavid Oilers absolutely have the better roster but without him I take Vancouver every day of the week. He tilts the ice more than anyone else. They struggled quite a bit when he was hurt this season

I'd argue Drai is the second best forward too personally. And yeah without them we suck. Av's would suck without Makar and Mack too!

The thing I hate is that you lost your goalie edge. You had better D and G to our F. It was relatviely fair. Now no Demko and Skinner should be considered better than Silovs. But time will tell and ask me in 7 games because I think that is where we are headed.

 

[Three On Zero]

I'd argue Drai is the second best forward too personally. And yeah without them we suck. Av's would suck without Makar and Mack too!

The thing I hate is that you lost your goalie edge. You had better D and G to our F. It was relatviely fair. Now no Demko and Skinner should be considered better than Silovs. But time will tell and ask me in 7 games because I think that is where we are headed.

Drai can be good but he doesn’t dictate the game like McDavid can, he doesn’t have the speed to cause chaos. His best attribute is being strong on the puck after McDavid does most of the leg work.

It really is unfortunate we don’t get to see the battle while both teams are at their best. Ultimately both regular season and playoffs aren’t going to be a great representation of what these teams can do.

 

[Three On Zero]

I look forward to our banter @Czechboy , it’s always a good respectful time that doesn’t devolve into personal posts

 

[McFlyingV]

They also had better defensive stats all year than Nashville.

Let them keep telling themselves that Nashville is some elite shutdown team (they're not).

 

[Three On Zero]

This is also the thread that will break @Summer Rose , I don’t see her liking every post here

 

[GOilers88]

Hot streaks happen. The Oilers simply are not a good hockey team outside of McDiver and Crysaitl and it's only a matter of time before they get exposed as the joke they have been all along.

82 game hot streak confirmed.

 

[Summer Rose]

This is also the thread that will break @Summer Rose , I don’t see her liking every post here

I've been too busy learning how to park to read through the whole thing.

 

[Three On Zero]

I've been too busy learning how to park to read through the whole thing.

That blue name might also play a small bit in what you do/dont like

 

[JAK]

82 game hot streak confirmed.

Isn't that what the Oilers have been saying about PDO on their out of town thread every Canucks game?

 

[GOilers88]

Isn't that what the Oilers have been saying about PDO on their out of town thread every Canucks game?

Maybe that's what some people have been saying. Lots of fans of lots of teams have been saying it.

Who gives a shit what they say?

 

[McFlyingV]

Hell I like Vancouver and still bet on Oilers in 5

They call that hedge betting, except you're hedging your enjoyment vs making money.

 

[Three On Zero]

They call that hedge betting, except you're hedging your enjoyment vs making money.

They call that being realistic, I’ll be entertained however the series plays out

 

[JAK]

This series will probably be decided once the league announces the referees for the series.

 

[Old Boys Club]

I will when the Oilers decide to address their atrocious blueline. They still haven't managed to do that and keep icing AHL trash on a nightly basis.

AHL trash managed to be an above average defensive team. Now I await your non-sequitur response with very mature name-calling insults to 'McDiver' or 'Crysaitl' I'm surprised you were able to go 2 posts without bringing up Bouchard too, good on you!

 

[PULSATING]

Give it a few pages before we complain about who has had it worse.

Oilers fans: "We had to endure the dark era!"

Canucks fans: "You call the Tambellini era suffering? We had it worse with Jim Benning!!!"

Leafs fans: "We have had more futility and heartbreak in the playoffs than both of your teams combined."

Sens fans:

There we go this was the kind of banter i wanted

 

[eviohh26]

Oilers are favorites. But that doesn't mean they can't lose. That Oilers core know a thing or 2 about losing .

As far as I'm concerned the Nucks are playing on house money. We are just happy as hell to even make the playoffs. Won the Division and 1st round. This by all means has been a successful season for us. We are not Cup or Bust quite yet.

 

[Pavel10]

No Demko, Pettersson Still hurt and Hughes banged up. You’d be silly to pick Vancouver in this series

It's also their first playoff in years and the guys you mentioned are not the toughest playoff warriors. Eg Draisaitl played on 1 leg 2 years ago.

I will when the Oilers decide to address their atrocious blueline. They still haven't managed to do that and keep icing AHL trash on a nightly basis.

Some people subscribe to the logic say it a thousand times and hopefully its true. Canucks have no dman like Ekholm.

 

[Three On Zero]

Oilers are favorites. But that doesn't mean they can't lose. That Oilers core know a thing or 2 about losing .

As far as I'm concerned the Nucks are playing on house money. We are just happy as hell to even make the playoffs. Won the Division and 1st round. This by all means has been a successful season for us. We are not Cup or Bust quite yet.

This is bonus time for the Canucks, they have no pressure to go any further. Even a 4 game sweep would still be seen as a successful season.

Young core that’s proven they can play in the regular season, has proven they can play close playoff games and come out on top. Being a premier market, that checks all the boxes to get more players interested in joining this core

 

[S E P H]

We've made it to WCF and 2nd round twice in the last 3 years. The last 2 years in particular have been rough as we've faced the eventual Stanley Cup winner and fell short. I wouldn't call it complete failures, but probably short of where the players want to be.

That's like saying, "we're like Tampa Bay Lightning in every single way" except when it comes to winning...of course.

 

[1440]

Special teams are going to be a big factor in this series. (xG per NST)
PP: Vancouver was 2/13 = 15.4% in 21:10 on 1.15 xGF with 20.0 SH% vs Nashville
Edmonton was 9/20 = 45% in 26:57 on 6.49 xGF with 20.5 SH% vs LA

PK: Vancouver was 2/22 = 90.9% in 37:12 on 3.24 xGA with 89.5 SV% vs Nashville
Edmonton was 0/12 =100% in 23:52 on 2.15 xGA with 100 SV% vs LA

Overall: Vancouver was 2.09 xG above expected in special teams in round 1.
Edmonton was 4.46 xG above expected in special teams in round 1.

Edmonton and Vancouver both had very strong powerplays in the regular season:
Vancouver generated 9.03 xGF/60 and 8.18 GF/60 versus 3.27 xGF/60 and 5.67 GF/60 in round 1.
Edmonton generated 10.08 xGF/60 and 10.53 GF/60 versus 14.45 xGF/60 and 20.04 GF/60 in round 1.

Regular season PK was also strong:
Vancouver allowed 7.89 xGA/60 and 7.64 GA/60 versus 5.23 xGA/60 and 3.23 GA/60 in round 1.
Edmonton allowed 6.9 XGA/60 and 7.55 GA/60 versus 5.41 xGA/60 and 0 GA/60 in round 1.

In terms of overperformance versus the regular season:
Vancouver was -0.85 GF above expected on the PP and 0.25 GA above expected on the PK in regular season and 2.4 GF above expected on the PP and 2 GA above expected on the PK in round 1.
This equals -0.6 vs 4.4 for a combined 5.0 xG/60 overperformance versus their regular season results.
Edmonton was 0.45 GF above expected on the PP and -0.65 GA above expected on the PK in regular season and 5.59 GF above expected on the PP and 5.41 GA above expected on the PK in round 1.
This equals -0.2 vs 11 for a combined 11.2 xG/60 overperformance versus their regular season results.

These are small sample sizes and likely neither of Edmonton's nor Vancouver's results are sustainable, but Edmonton was on an absolute heater in both PP and PK in round 1 whereas Vancouver overperformed expected, but by a much smaller margin.

Though Edmonton are favourites, if I were an Edmonton fan, my number one concern would be that the PP and PK results of round 1 are not even remotely repeatable, even for a team that had both the third best PP and PK in the regular season. They are not going to continue to score on 45% of opportunities and never concede any PK goals. Moreover, Vancouver got very unfavourable refereeing and ended up with by far the largest penalty differential against (-9 and -15:02 vs EDM's +8 and +3:05) of any team in the first round despite carrying play for the most part and eventually winning. This is unusual since Vancouver was +2, +0:37 (average discipline) in the regular season and Edmonton was -15, -55:36 (very undisciplined) in the regular season.

Virtually everything went right for Edmonton in round 1, while Vancouver stumbled through despite key injuries, horrendously lopsided refereeing (besides the penalty differential, Nashville scored 4/12 goals that were very tight non coaches challenges, and were penalized 3/13 times on "non-subjective" too many men and delay of game calls) and mediocre play. If luck remains the same or shifts only slightly Edmonton will win, but if it returns to normal, and especially if Demko returns, Vancouver will.

 

[Seachd]

Has Edmonton somehow brought in an NHL defenceman other than Ekholm and given the C to someone who isn't a gutless floppper since the first round?

Even 2017 didn't think this was funny.

 

[logan5]

People who haven't played the game really don't understand the difference between having a goalie you trust to steal games for you and not having it.

You play totally differently. You aren't as scared to stretch the ice or to make plays, you play deeper in the ozone etc. You don't have that thought in the back of your mind that every mistake will be in our net, you instead are only thinking of making plays. The Nucks play faster and forecheck harder and average a lot more shots when they have Demko. When they don't they play a lot more within their system. Having a top goalie in the league is very different from a third string rookie (as good as Silovs has been).

Game 6 the Canucks generated the most shots on net in the series and also had lots of grade A scoring chances so it looks like Tocchett was more comfortable with Silovs that game and let the Canucks open things up. I hope Silovs can somehow keep it up.

 

[Dieseloil]

Sure. There’s reasons to pick the Oilers and reasons to pick the Canucks. But it will all come down to what happens on the ice not what posters and analysts think.

This is a revelation