Speculation: Will we sign Antti Raanta?

[RABBIT]

last one:

 

[Jamieh]

If we get Raanta signed this will be our best tandem in years, maybe ever.

I like this pair but Smith and Dubnyk are clearly better.

 

[Grimes]

I like this pair but Smith and Dubnyk are clearly better.

On paper. But Smith was hot garbage and lost his starting job to a Dubnyk who was dealing with ptsd from EDM for the forst month or so.

 

[SniperHF]

On paper. But Smith was hot garbage and lost his starting job to a Dubnyk who was dealing with ptsd from EDM for the forst month or so.

I think people remember Smith being bad, but forgot just how bad it was. He was near all time bad for about 3 months there. .888 sv% from October to January.

It wasn't just that team being bad either, Smith was BRUTAL.

 

[RABBIT]

Smith and Greiss could make a strong push if we are talking season tandems

 

[drgregg]

Also, forgive me for being cynical about the public statements of a general manager at deadline time regarding "key," "core", or " important " players. It's marketing talk. To you or to prospective buyers.

Fair enough.
This is an excellent point by the way, we don't know Chayka well enough yet to know how much stock to put into his public comments.

 

[drgregg]

Smith and Greiss could make a strong push if we are talking season tandems

I like this pair but Smith and Dubnyk are clearly better.

We absolutely have had the good fortune to have some great goaltending on this team in our recent history.

 

[Name Nameless]

I voted "traded at deadline", as I'm a pessimist. Now this didn't happen. That's the good news. The bad news? Well, for every day he is not signed now, I feel he will be less likely to sign. Why not signing him? Isn't the offers good enough? Can they not make the offer good enough? Isn't he interested?

Yeah. Being the born pessimist again, hopefully

Only hope might be if they have talked about taxes in Arizona being lighter than in Canada, and offering an NMC, and then he saying "yeah, then we sign the day that NMC would be valid from day one"... this to try to reaching for a straw to explain why not signed yet.

 

[Bonsai Tree]

I disagree about the leverage the Raanta camp would enjoy post TDL. I don't think Chayka is shaking in his boots about missing out on a Raanta trade package. Nor should he be. I don't think the Raanta camp believes he is either. Nor should they. Especially if the agent has expressed his client's strong desire to stay and both sides are confident and hopeful. These things aren't always the Art of War.

Well said. Many contract negotiations are amicable.

 

[RABBIT]

I really don't sense any potential hostility between the two camps. I think he has proven to be a starting goalie and Chayka and co see that, he's also proven to be a likable presence in the locker room. That's a guy that i'm sure they aren't going to blatantly try to stiff.

I also think the Raanta camp knows that he has proven to be a starting goaltender, so they may demand starting money, but that he was injured for the beginning of his year and has only been given a brief amount of time to show his strengths on a new team. They will probably also consider the fact that he just bought a house here, he has a wife and child, that the Coyotes gave him the reigns to his first starting job, and that he seemingly likes it here.

I think there is a healthy amount of negotiation leverage on both sides, and a healthy amount of respect and courtesy as well. I'm of the opinion that he gets signed to a 4 year deal, maybe a little more than we are comfortable with (like 4.5-4.8M a season) which i will be happy with, knowing that both sides had to make small compromises.

 

[_Del_]

Well said. Many contract negotiations are amicable.

It's not about hostile or cordial. It's about risk-management and, by extension, asset management.
John Chayka is being paid to minimize risk to the franchise, and this was a failure. He took negotiations with a player most see as key, and allowed his impression to override the need to make a deal or trade him. Either they were really close, but couldn't close the gap because apparently there was naïvely no sense of urgency on John's part, or they weren't really that close.
There is literally no reason to expect any better deal than the one Raanta tabled before the TDL. Chayka went from a safe position of strength (deciding his upper limit for acceptable terms or moving on from Raanta for assets), to one of weakness (agreeing to Raanta's lowest acceptable terms or risk losing him for nothing).
Every day marked off the calendar is that much easier for Raanta to just say, "won't hurt to wait just a few more weeks and see what's out there on July first". That's not hostile or non-amicable. That's just common sense.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed to lose him, but it doesn't make any good sense to procrastinate either. Either he is worth the money or he isn't. No sense in kicking the can closer to the deadline where it only potentially hurts you.

 

[pckstpr31]

If you look at goaltending situations league-wide next season, these are the only teams that would make any kind of sense:

Buffalo: Lehner is an RFA, and I don't think will re-sign there, and Johnson is a UFA
Calgary: Play behind Smith for a year, become the starter after that
Detroit: Could maybe split time with Howard there
Florida: If Luongo retires then maybe split with Reimer, but Lu still has at least 1 more year in him
NYI: Split time with Greiss
Carolina: Bring in to push Darling

The only one that might be arguable is NYI, as they're further along than Arizona, and he'd probably outplay Greiss and get more games. But it's probably not worth it for him really, I'd imagine he'd rather stay. He's by no means established himself as a clear-cut starter, but I think he's on his way, and having Kuemper around to push him is a good thing.

 

[Jamieh]

If you look at goaltending situations league-wide next season, these are the only teams that would make any kind of sense:

Buffalo: Lehner is an RFA, and I don't think will re-sign there, and Johnson is a UFA
Calgary: Play behind Smith for a year, become the starter after that
Detroit: Could maybe split time with Howard there
Florida: If Luongo retires then maybe split with Reimer, but Lu still has at least 1 more year in him
NYI: Split time with Greiss
Carolina: Bring in to push Darling

The only one that might be arguable is NYI, as they're further along than Arizona, and he'd probably outplay Greiss and get more games. But it's probably not worth it for him really, I'd imagine he'd rather stay. He's by no means established himself as a clear-cut starter, but I think he's on his way, and having Kuemper around to push him is a good thing.

So you suggested 20% of the League as possibility of a situation available to Raanta and you think he has little leverage???

 

[Jakey53]

If you look at goaltending situations league-wide next season, these are the only teams that would make any kind of sense:

Buffalo: Lehner is an RFA, and I don't think will re-sign there, and Johnson is a UFA
Calgary: Play behind Smith for a year, become the starter after that
Detroit: Could maybe split time with Howard there
Florida: If Luongo retires then maybe split with Reimer, but Lu still has at least 1 more year in him
NYI: Split time with Greiss
Carolina: Bring in to push Darling

The only one that might be arguable is NYI, as they're further along than Arizona, and he'd probably outplay Greiss and get more games. But it's probably not worth it for him really, I'd imagine he'd rather stay. He's by no means established himself as a clear-cut starter, but I think he's on his way, and having Kuemper around to push him is a good thing.

Buffalo - Has Ullmark as there future but they might need a cheap vet ex starter for one or two years or they may feel Ullmark is ready.
Calagary - Calgary is not going to have 8 M tied up in goalies and Why would Raanta want to play second fiddle.
Detroit - Maybe, but they are going to be bad next year.
Florida - They have their goalies
NYI - Quite possible
Carolina - They will give Darling another shot and probably pick up a vet.
Raanta knows he has the starter job here and that will be hard to pass up.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I want to know where Hinterland is as Raanta was supposed to be small and a bust.

 

[pckstpr31]

So you suggested 20% of the League as possibility of a situation available to Raanta and you think he has little leverage???

I wasn't looking at it from a standpoint of him having leverage. I was just considering options that might make sense for him. That 20% is teams that it wouldn't be super bizarre to see him move to. But on that list, what reasoning would he potentially have for going to one of those teams instead of signing in AZ? Buffalo & Detroit are in practically the same position as you guys, Calgary he'd be the clear backup, Florida he'd be battling Reimer to backup/split time with Lu. Carolina might make a bit of sense but I don't see them making another Darling like move when they've already committed to Darling. New York is the only option I think he would consider.

@Jakey53 , that post is in agreement with you. I listed those to show that they're poor options for him, probably could've outlined that better.

 

[Jakey53]

So you suggested 20% of the League as possibility of a situation available to Raanta and you think he has little leverage???

That is one persons speculation, sure is not mine. The grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence.

 

[Jakey53]

I want to know where Hinterland is as Raanta was supposed to be small and a bust.

And Rieder our best forward.

 

[Name Nameless]

And Rieder our best forward.

Not Hinterland, but I am sure he wasn't the only one to have faith in Rieder. I mean, Rieder had 21 points in 72 games as a 21-year old, and 37 points in 82 games as a 22 -year old. If he had kept up climbing, he would have been magnificent.

Antti Raana is not big. He is 183 cm, or 6 foot for you. Decent for a man, but not big for a goalie. He is no bust though. But I do suspect his "lack of size" has some influence on a lot of things. And probably made many people think carrier backup.

Also, not signed yet... So he could have been 5 foot for me with stats like that.

 

[Jamieh]

That is one persons speculation, sure is not mine. The grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence.

That's all wonderful about starting but Raanta is 28 years old with roughly $5 million in career earnings. If some team goes Carolina like Darling offer for him where he plays will be second fiddle to his Family's financial future and right now there are half a dozen NHL teams suffering in the goalie dept.

 

[cobra427]

It's not about hostile or cordial. It's about risk-management and, by extension, asset management.
John Chayka is being paid to minimize risk to the franchise, and this was a failure. He took negotiations with a player most see as key, and allowed his impression to override the need to make a deal or trade him. Either they were really close, but couldn't close the gap because apparently there was naïvely no sense of urgency on John's part, or they weren't really that close.
There is literally no reason to expect any better deal than the one Raanta tabled before the TDL. Chayka went from a safe position of strength (deciding his upper limit for acceptable terms or moving on from Raanta for assets), to one of weakness (agreeing to Raanta's lowest acceptable terms or risk losing him for nothing).
Every day marked off the calendar is that much easier for Raanta to just say, "won't hurt to wait just a few more weeks and see what's out there on July first". That's not hostile or non-amicable. That's just common sense.
That doesn't mean we're guaranteed to lose him, but it doesn't make any good sense to procrastinate either. Either he is worth the money or he isn't. No sense in kicking the can closer to the deadline where it only potentially hurts you.

Assuming your right and somebody outbids us in UFA land, your forgetting the benefit many players on this team are getting right now from winning more games and setting a more positive tone to finish out the year. Winning now is so important for this group from a confidence level that it is worth the very tiny risk we lose Raanta.

Besides, we have picked up the following goalies that have played well for us as UFA's: Bryz/Smith/Greiss/Duby and the trade for Raanta. It seems like acquiring a good goalie hasn't ever been our problem. If we lose Raanta, we will figure out a replacement, not the end of the world. In another post, there isn't a clear open starting job other then maybe NYI, so there won't be a lot of competition for a 29 year old that still hasn't played starter minutes or games for a full season.

I hope and think we will sign him, and we will pay market value because there won't be a bidding war.

 

[_Del_]

Yes, I fully look forward to playing chicken with the best available UFA goalie because you and Johnny don't expect a bidding war.
If a Kuemper and Bernier/Khudobin/whoever platoon is "good enough" because we don't like Raanta's numbers and think there are plenty of replacement level goalies available, then we should have cut bait when we had a chance to recoup value instead of whistling our way into the off season.
Instead we didn't even try to close a deal when we were never going to get a deal better than available right that moment. Hurray

ETA: while value as percentage of cap is certainly a variable determined by each team, "market value" is established by bidding war. A commodity is worth whatever someone will pay for it. If someone signs Derrick Engelland to $3M a year, that's his market value at that moment. It might be terrible cap value, but the price to squire him on the market (or market value) was precisely whatever the highest bid was.

 

[Mosby]

I want to know where Hinterland is as Raanta was supposed to be small and a bust.

We'd be in the playoffs had we kept Fournier.

 

[AZviaNJ]

We'd be in the playoffs had we kept Fournier.

Fournier's 289th in ECHL scoring with 19 points in 37 games, but 98th in goals with 14! #DontMessWithStef

 

[Jakey53]

That's all wonderful about starting but Raanta is 28 years old with roughly $5 million in career earnings. If some team goes Carolina like Darling offer for him where he plays will be second fiddle to his Family's financial future and right now there are half a dozen NHL teams suffering in the goalie dept.

$4M for Darling is about right for a starter, and Carolina thought he was ready for that job, just like the Yotes think Raanta is for us. I would expect to pay 3.5 - 4M/yr. for Raanta, and if we have to maybe a bit more, but I don't see anyone outbid us. I we walk away from Raanta a $4M/yr. then we know AB does not have the funds for OEL and Raanta, which could be the case.