Speculation: Will we sign Antti Raanta?

[Mosby]

I think the only threat is NYI.

Carolina has made their bed with Darling. Sens owner is cheap and has already spent on Anderson and Condon. Oil will stick with Talbot. Nobody wants to live in Buffalo.

 

[steierwrass]

Raanta hasn't proven he is a starter, just over 40 games this year. Playing at a high level for a goalie at 40 games is way different then playing at a high level for 60 games, it is a 50% increase in work load. It's not a given that he can do it full time and many goalies have been good part time but couldn't do it full time.

I like Raanta and they should sign him but they don't need to over pay. 2 years @4 mill or 3-4 years @3-3.5 mill should be market value.

That's not his market value. Darling gets 4.15M (4 years) and Talbot 4.167M (3 years). Darling had played only as back-up before that and Talbot had played few months as starter. Raanta has played 40+ games as starter. And his stats have been same as those have been earlier. Of course there is still that slight question, what happens, when it's 60-65, not 45-50 games. But especially his quality starts % make me believe, he will make it.

 

[_Del_]

Shhhh.. They've convinced themselves we're the only possible destination and that we have more leverage now that we're closer to free agency opening. Chayka would be "bidding against himself" if he meets the agent's price before free agency. Locking him up or moving on is a decision best made after July 1.
If you wake them too suddenly, they get cranky.

 

[cobra427]

That's not his market value. Darling gets 4.15M (4 years) and Talbot 4.167M (3 years). Darling had played only as back-up before that and Talbot had played few months as starter. Raanta has played 40+ games as starter. And his stats have been same as those have been earlier. Of course there is still that slight question, what happens, when it's 60-65, not 45-50 games. But especially his quality starts % make me believe, he will make it.

You just made my point. Darling and Talbot were over paid, both unproven as starters, both contracts are mistakes. This is exactly why Raanta won't get 3-4 years @ 4 mill+.

Regardless of what we pay him, I hope his play continues next year.

 

[ParisSaintGermain]

Very happy with Raanta, I hope Chayka find a reasonable deal - I don't mind 4x4.

On a side note: I would differentiate Talbot to Darling: Talbot has played really well last season, not so well this season although his play has improved recently. The Oilers have been a mess throughout this year, so I prefer to wait and see till next season to have a full opinion.

Darling at the other end looks terrible. And it is hard to see how next season could drastically improve.... he has been outplayed by a washed out back up.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

I really hope we sign him 4x4, although I wouldn't be mad at 5x3, 5x4 or greater is going to be a crap shoot. I do want Hinterland to come back at some point and explain away the 'great' season Raanta is having. At the start of the season, he had Raanta too short to play in the NHL. All I see is an incredibly quick goalie who gets across the crease better than anyone we've had.

 

[Jakey53]

I really hope we sign him 4x4, although I wouldn't be mad at 5x3, 5x4 or greater is going to be a crap shoot. I do want Hinterland to come back at some point and explain away the 'great' season Raanta is having. At the start of the season, he had Raanta too short to play in the NHL. All I see is an incredibly quick goalie who gets across the crease better than anyone we've had.

Not to mention Keller should be in the AHL for development, or Rieder being our best forward.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Hinterland was basically bizarroworld

 

[steierwrass]

You just made my point. Darling and Talbot were over paid, both unproven as starters, both contracts are mistakes. This is exactly why Raanta won't get 3-4 years @ 4 mill+.

Regardless of what we pay him, I hope his play continues next year.

It doesn't matter, if Darling or Talbot succeeded or not. Those contracts show, what GMs are ready to pay. And Raanta has proven more than those. And I don't agree that Talbot has been that bad. Or his contract is mistake. Those were contracts, where goalie has played in good starter level, but as backup. If they had proven to be that level starters, it's something like 6M. Raanta has had even better numbers.

Year Games S% GAA QS%
2013-14 22 .897 2.71 .545
2014-15 12 .936 1.89 .667
2015-16 18 .919 2.25 .667
2016-17 26 .922 2.26 .692
2017-18 42 .927 2.34 .667

Those are elite goalie numbers (excluding first season), if he can produce those in whole season as starter. Not only good.

I'm sure, he would get over 4M for 4 years as FA. If Arizona can sign him with less, it's great.

 

[RemoAZ]

If they don't sign him before he starts negotiating with other teams he's going to get over paid by someone unless he ends the season hurt. That's almost guaranteed. There will be at least one GM desperate for a starting goalie.

 

[_Del_]

Only 88 days until he can talk to everyone before making a decision. Why would he sign first now? Everyday that passes is another reason to just wait and test the market.

 

[cobra427]

It doesn't matter, if Darling or Talbot succeeded or not. Those contracts show, what GMs are ready to pay. And Raanta has proven more than those. And I don't agree that Talbot has been that bad. Or his contract is mistake. Those were contracts, where goalie has played in good starter level, but as backup. If they had proven to be that level starters, it's something like 6M. Raanta has had even better numbers.

Year Games S% GAA QS%
2013-14 22 .897 2.71 .545
2014-15 12 .936 1.89 .667
2015-16 18 .919 2.25 .667
2016-17 26 .922 2.26 .692
2017-18 42 .927 2.34 .667

Those are elite goalie numbers (excluding first season), if he can produce those in whole season as starter. Not only good.

I'm sure, he would get over 4M for 4 years as FA. If Arizona can sign him with less, it's great.

It does matter because they signed for more proven starter money and both have proven they aren't starters yet. Back ups with good stats have failed as starters, Darling is proving this again. Raanta is 29 too and is unproven as a starter. It's not like he is 23 and has tons of upside.

I hope we sign him but I don't think there will be a biding war. There is still risk with Raanta.

 

[Plub]

I'm starting to think he doesn't sign with us.

 

[steierwrass]

It does matter because they signed for more proven starter money and both have proven they aren't starters yet. Back ups with good stats have failed as starters, Darling is proving this again. Raanta is 29 too and is unproven as a starter. It's not like he is 23 and has tons of upside.

I hope we sign him but I don't think there will be a biding war. There is still risk with Raanta.

Yes, they weren't proven starters. That's why they were so "cheap". Proven starter with their stats would have got something like 6M. Proven 4M starter has weaker stats. Those were medium/high risk - medium/high reward signs. And have to still disagree about Talbot and starter status proving. He played quite good season 2016-17 (73 GP, .919 S%, 2.39 GAA and .589 QS%), but he played too much. This season has been much worse, but team is also worse and he has played too much in last too seasons. Those last season numbers would have been great for 4M goalie.

Yes, Raanta is 29 and not young boy anymore, but he has plenty of years left. If he continued next 5-6 seasons with similar stats as starter, he would be one of the best goalies in NHL that time. And he might have even 10 years left. I don't know, what kind of upside you want from your goalie, when top5 in league isn't enough.

And many back ups has succeeded as starter. You just don't remember them, because you think, those have always been starters. Not many start their career as starter.

 

[cobra427]

Yes, they weren't proven starters. That's why they were so "cheap". Proven starter with their stats would have got something like 6M. Proven 4M starter has weaker stats. Those were medium/high risk - medium/high reward signs. And have to still disagree about Talbot and starter status proving. He played quite good season 2016-17 (73 GP, .919 S%, 2.39 GAA and .589 QS%), but he played too much. This season has been much worse, but team is also worse and he has played too much in last too seasons. Those last season numbers would have been great for 4M goalie.

Yes, Raanta is 29 and not young boy anymore, but he has plenty of years left. If he continued next 5-6 seasons with similar stats as starter, he would be one of the best goalies in NHL that time. And he might have even 10 years left. I don't know, what kind of upside you want from your goalie, when top5 in league isn't enough.

And many back ups has succeeded as starter. You just don't remember them, because you think, those have always been starters. Not many start their career as starter.

How many goalies became starters the year they turned 29 or older and were in the top half of the NHL for 3 or 4 years? Not many that I can recall. I am just saying there is plenty of risk with Raanta. Talbot is 37th in save% and darling is 50th this year. If they were both UFA's today, they wouldn't get the same money or term.

 

[BOGO]

I'm starting to think he doesn't sign with us.

...because the Coyotes cannot have nice things.

 

[_Del_]

...because the Coyotes cannot have nice things.

Because we hesitated instead of deciding to fish or cut bait at the right time. Chayka is being paid to make hard decisions, and instead he punted and bent himself over a barrel.
We either sign him for more than we would have had to earlier, or we lose him. Not great options.

 

[azcanuck]

Raanta will go where the money is. And that isn't here.

 

[hbk]

Deal will get done. Just need to let process play itself out.

 

[RemoAZ]

Yeah we went high for Smith. Won't be surprised if they overpay for Raanta. Every team needs a good goalie but a budget team that lacks any stars has to have one to even have a shot at a playoff spot.

 

[_Del_]

Deal will get done. Just need to let process play itself out.

So we're going to overpay to keep him from testing the market? That's better than cutting a deal before the deadline? Raanta's price has gone down now that he's closer to free agency?

 

[hbk]

So we're going to overpay to keep him from testing the market? That's better than cutting a deal before the deadline? Raanta's price has gone down now that he's closer to free agency?

You pay him what he's worth and he'll sign. His agent wanted to wait until the end of season before signing anything so your other option was to overpay anyways to get him to the table.

Raanta's price will be impacted by number of teams that are looking for a 1G who have cap space and/or budget. That's a list of teams less than 5; none of which have the D corps that AZ has (which he's had proven success on).

Issue sounds like term (Nattie Hattie podcast) 5 years vs 3. I'm pretty sure they can solve that. There is a number in the middle.

 

[moosemeister]

I'd give him an extra year at a lower hit if he wants 5.

 

[_Del_]

You pay him what he's worth and he'll sign. His agent wanted to wait until the end of season before signing anything so your other option was to overpay anyways to get him to the table.

He's worth more now than he was at the deadline.
Also, my choice at the deadline was work a deal and overpay him or move forward in a separate direction with the assets I got from a trade.
Now my options are work a new deal and overpay him or watch him walk into the sunset while I look like a fool. I've not done myself any favours by saying, "I'll wait and make a decision later".

 

[hbk]

He's worth more now than he was at the deadline.
Also, my choice at the deadline was work a deal and overpay him or move forward in a separate direction with the assets I got from a trade.
Now my options are work a new deal and overpay him or watch him walk into the sunset while I look like a fool. I've not done myself any favours by saying, "I'll wait and make a decision later".

He's been our MVP this year. You targeted him because you thought he could solve your long term issues in net. Missing out on trading him for a couple second rounders still leaves you with a hole.

Before the deadline. Believe I tossed out a range in that $4-$4.5M. I don't think I'm far off. Argument could be raised given cap increase that the number is higher. Like I said the issue doesn't appear to be $. It's term.