Will the Penguins use a compliance buyout?

[wgknestrick]

I'd be surprised if Fleury can't be moved. His regular season number are very good and he could help a team that is on the bubble get to the playoffs. And I would think there has to be at least one GM out there who is looking at the coming season as one in which he must make the playoffs (or lose his job).

If we can't find any takers for him, I would not be in a huge rush to buy him out. I understand why folks want him gone but that $5 million has to come from somewhere.

If you are taking the 5 mil from player salary then you are limiting the team's ability to lock up the pieces it needs over the long term. And if you take it from somewhere else you are hurting another part of hockey ops (scouting, coaching data analysis, whatever).

Part of why this team is where it is right now is that it survived for six years on deadline day sugar-highs. We need to play the long game and that includes not wasting cap space/cash on buying out a guy who is going to be gone in a year anyway.

The only way I see a logical reason to buy him out is if a new GM comes in and really wants to sign somebody specific and we simply have to make room.

I think buyouts are largely the fantasies of angry fans (no offense guys but they are talked about way more than they are actually used). So realistically I think if Fleury can't be traded, he's here for his last year.

Regular season numbers are "average" among starting goaltenders. If you are making a decision about goaltending, you SHOULD be using 5v5 SV% as it eliminates any special team effects (good or bad) from a goaltender's numbers.

The point about getting rid of MAF, is not that you can necessarily "improve" at that position skill wise, but it should be very easy to spend less and receive the same quality of goaltending, or spend the same and get better/more consistent goaltending.

 

[wgknestrick]

Worst case scenerio, if we do not see huge improvement by the deadline, only a couple million will be left on his contract, move him then.

But let's see Fleury under a new coach and system, especially if it is one like Trotz.

How is that going to change the shots against him? Our team already allows a low number of shots relative to the league.

Zatkoff (league min $ goalie) basically equaled his performance this year
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201314&sit=5v5&type=shots&teamid=24&pos=goalies&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC

TV beat him handily last year by 1%
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201213&sit=5v5&type=shots&teamid=24&pos=goalies&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC

BJ beat him in 10/11 and 09/10
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201011&sit=5v5&type=shots&teamid=24&pos=goalies&minutes=400&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC

We have to look back to 08/09, or 07/08 where MAF put in decent numbers at 5v5. You may be able to claim it's all Bylsma, but MAF hasn't really been able to beat his replacement level backup (excluding Vokoun) goaltending either. I think he (like the coach) should be done with this team. They may not be "bad", but their time has come to move on.

 

[redsono93]

Now that Letang is hurt yet again could we just buy him out if we can't trade him? I really wish we traded him at the draft last year. I think he needs a uniform with airbags he gets hit airbag deployed no more injuries I hope whatever GM trims the fat on our current roster. My gut tells me a really busy offseason with a whole new look roster opening night.

 

[66871]

Regular season numbers are "average" among starting goaltenders. If you are making a decision about goaltending, you SHOULD be using 5v5 SV% as it eliminates any special team effects (good or bad) from a goaltender's numbers.

The point about getting rid of MAF, is not that you can necessarily "improve" at that position skill wise, but it should be very easy to spend less and receive the same quality of goaltending, or spend the same and get better/more consistent goaltending.

Spend the same against the cap or spend the same total?

I realize as I read your response that some of th $5 million goes away if we buy him out. Am I wrong in thinking we are still on the hook for 2/3rds or 1/2 of it? If it's 2/3rds you are talking about getting a goaltender as good as MAF for 1.67 mil if it's 1/2 your budget to replace him goes up to 2.5 mil. If they can do that, then it's a wash - although you possibly still have the goalie under contract after next year. If they have to spend more total (not just against the cap) to replace him for one year then there should be some justification.

 

[wgknestrick]

Spend the same against the cap or spend the same total?

I realize as I read your response that some of th $5 million goes away if we buy him out. Am I wrong in thinking we are still on the hook for 2/3rds or 1/2 of it? If it's 2/3rds you are talking about getting a goaltender as good as MAF for 1.67 mil if it's 1/2 your budget to replace him goes up to 2.5 mil. If they can do that, then it's a wash - although you possibly still have the goalie under contract under next year. If they have to spend more total (not just against the cap) to replace him for one year then there should be some justification.

His buyout would not count against the cap.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compliance_buyout

 

[themethod7]

MAF is probably the #1 problem with this team.

Shero lost his job because he could not recognize that. Bylsma will probably too.

I don't understand how he, (MAF) is so entrenched inside this team. I fear it may be due to Mario and their French Canadian upbringings (because I can see no other logical reason). Anyone that has an unbiased and objective view on making the team better has to view him as THE biggest problem for their shortcomings.

No other starting goaltender lets in the type of goals he does AT the frequency that he does. It is not his "mind", it is not his game preparation, it is not his "pads", it is not his "coach", or any other peripheral excuse it has been blamed on in the pass. It is "him" and his well below average technique that is source of every one of his problems. The team keeps on THINKING that he is a naturally "good" goaltender that has some minor "flaw" that needs fixed.

He will never be a top tier goaltender because his technique relative to his peers is well below average. He cannot control his rebounds, keep from flopping on the ice after the first shot, properly follow the puck with players in front of him, or play the puck with any kind of consistency. If you don't see these things with him then I don't know what else to say other than focus on OTHER goaltenders around the league when you watch the games. In summary, he is not a goaltender with the technique that would ever cause him to be drafted #1 overall. That draft choice was a huge mistake that this team cannot ever put behind itself as a mistake. He NEVER had the junior SV% numbers to back up that decision.

Hyperbole much?

Worst case scenerio, if we do not see huge improvement by the deadline, only a couple million will be left on his contract, move him then.

But let's see Fleury under a new coach and system, especially if it is one like Trotz.

Agreed. The other options out there just aren't solid enough to get rid of Fleury with only a year left on his contract. As I see it, there are 3 options:

A. Keep Fleury for last year of his contract
B. Move Fleury, sign goalie in FA (Hiller/Halak/Miller)
C. Move Fleury as part of a package that has a solid goaltender prospect coming back

IMO, A is probably the logical thing to do. One year @ $5 million is not going to make or break this team, especially when we have zero other options currently on the roster. I don't see them moving him at the deadline though - he would only be valuable to another team headed to the playoffs or making a push to get there, but if your confidence in him is shaken enough to deal him at the deadline, why would any of those teams want him? I think they stick with him this last year under a new coach unless options B or C look like a slam dunk, which neither do (to me) at this point.

 

[themethod7]

Now that Letang is hurt yet again could we just buy him out if we can't trade him? I really wish we traded him at the draft last year. I think he needs a uniform with airbags he gets hit airbag deployed no more injuries I hope whatever GM trims the fat on our current roster. My gut tells me a really busy offseason with a whole new look roster opening night.

This may be the dumbest thing I've read on here all year, congratulations.

 

[redsono93]

This may be the dumbest thing I've read on here all year, congratulations.

Thank You

 

[66871]

His buyout would not count against the cap.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compliance_buyout

I realize that, but my point is that the money has to come from somewhere. It's not as easy, in reality, as just saying oh well it doesn't count against the cap so let's just write the guy a check to go away. Because internally, it counts against something.

 

[wgknestrick]

I realize that, but my point is that the money has to come from somewhere. It's not as easy, in reality, to just say oh well it doesn't count against the cap so let's just write the guy a check to go away. Because internally, it counts against something.

I have searched but cannot find the specific answer for compliance buyouts. I assume that the player gets 66% of his salary, not 100%.
http://www.capgeek.com/buyout-calculator/?player_id=506&buyout_y=2014&buyout_m=06&buyout_d=15

 

[66871]

I have searched but cannot find the specific answer for compliance buyouts. I assume that the player gets 66% of his salary, not 100%.
http://www.capgeek.com/buyout-calculator/?player_id=506&buyout_y=2014&buyout_m=06&buyout_d=15

Yes, it looks like 66%. Which is why I put $3.33 MM in the above post.

 

[wgknestrick]

Yes, it looks like 66%. Which is why I put $3.33 MM in the above post.

That is the "cash" cost of the buyout (out of owners pockets), but we would be getting roughly 4 mil in cap space (assuming 1mil/ yr goalie) that we could spend on an UFA forward.

The thing is that "if" you believe we can get equal goaltending for around 1mil, we still end up paying equal to or less than MAF's full salary, WHILE getting the same level of goaltending, WHILE also getting the cap space relief. The last part is why I make this move.

 

[wgknestrick]

There are some great values in UFA goaltending this year

Stalock (750K) 1% better SV% than MAF over last 2 years
Griess (625K) 1% better SV% than MAF over last 2 years

 

[stepdad gaary]

Consistency has always been his problem. Sure, he gave up 14 goals in 7 games. He also gave up 14 goals in 5 games. That doesn't sound quite as good.

ok and if you eliminate 2 other random games, he gave up 7 goals in 5 games

That sounds pretty good.

There are some great values in UFA goaltending this year

Stalock (750K) 1% better SV% than MAF over last 2 years
Griess (625K) 1% better SV% than MAF over last 2 years

Stalock in 24 games...
Griess in 31 games...

Stalock is unproven to say the least and Griess is 28, never earned an extended starting job. If you're ditching your goalie to bring in one of these guys, lets just say you're french fry'ing when you should be pizza'ing

 

[stepdad gaary]

You guys are being pretty naive if you think a new GM's first move is going to be come in here and literally throw away millions of dollars of his new bosses' money.

 

[wgknestrick]

ok and if you eliminate 2 other random games, he gave up 7 goals in 5 games

That sounds pretty good.




Stalock in 24 games...
Griess in 31 games...

Stalock is unproven to say the least and Griess is 28, never earned an extended starting job. If you're ditching your goalie to bring in one of these guys, lets just say you're french fry'ing when you should be pizza'ing

Oh no. Scouting made a mistake and they aren't better than MAF, they are just as good as him. Wait, they still cost less and we still have this 4mil/year to spend on better players.

I don't see the problem.

 

[stepdad gaary]

Oh no. Scouting made a mistake and they aren't better than MAF, they are just as good as him. Wait, they still cost less and we still have this 4mil/year to spend on better players.

I don't see the problem.

please come out and say one time "Thomas Greiss and Alex Stalock are just as good as Marc-Andre Fleury." I need to hear it

 

[ColePens]

I'm not pulling a "Save %" or "GAA" argument at all. That is set up for failure or we could EASILY say Zatkoff is NHL ready and good to go (just briefly looking at his stats).

 

[66871]

Yeah, I don't think the new GM is going to be coming in and demanding that ownership eat $3.3 million dollars. If he wants to buy Fleury out he's going to have to offset all or (best case) most of that cost from somewhere else.

Assuming you are right that we can get somebody as good as MAF for $1 million (that's a pretty thin assumpion, IMO), you are talking about eating $3.3 million dollars in something (scouting? player development? training equipment?) to have $4 million in cap space for one year. A move like that is no different than trading picks or prospects on deadline day for a rental. Which is exactly the sort of strategy that has led the team to this point.

 

[BreakfastatMarios]

All I'm saying is we have a lot of other **** that needs dealt with before him. If he finishes out next season, it's not the worst thing.

That said, I'd love to ship his ass to Minnesota so he can play with Yeo. I also wouldn't be surprised if he went to a team that actually knew how to play defense, that he'd turn into a stud goalie.

Send Fleury and Letang to Colorado for Varlamov and O'Reilly. Roy would whip him into shape

Ya know with your Avatar I keep reading this with a Samuel L Jackson voice in my head from pulp fiction

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

If we can't trade Fleury then use it on him. I really have no issue with him getting a lame duck season with us, his play this year and these playoffs wasn't anywhere near buyout bad, but if we're really being serious about blowing this roster up then he's bound to be one of the first on the chopping block.


Adams needs to be bought out regardless of what it does to our cap situation, he's not capable of being a NHL player anymore. Period.

It still boggles my mind that Shero gave that waste an extension at all, let alone a TWO YEAR deal... ugh. Then again this is also the guy who extended Bylsma... DOUBLE BARF!

 

[Captain Hook]

It'll be interesting to see what happens with Fleury. I actually think it would be easier for a new GM to go to Mario and Burkle and ask for money to buyout a player because the contract he wants to buyout wasn't his mistake. He can just pass it off as the last idiot GM's mistake. Not saying Mario or Burkle will go for it but still.

It will also be interesting if we bring in an outside GM. You can say Stalock isn't as good as Fleury. I don't know but what if for example you hire Joe Will from San Jose as the new GM. He has seen Stalock first hand. I suppose his opinion of him could be either or. Maybe Will thinks Stalock isn't that great or maybe he looks at Stalock and says I can go get him and he can do the job as good as Fleury for way less money toward the cap. A new GM will certainly have his own guys. Interesting times ahead.