Will McDavid hit 100 assists this season?

[Video Nasty]

Longevity doesnt go into best for me

Like sure if a guy plays only 4 or 5 years then he probably wont be best

Lemieux put ~1.9ppg and has the highest gpg I think in history.

Lemieux not having 2700-2900 pts is due to injuries/cancer not ability. Think hed be ~2500 pts in that era. (Crosby for comparison ~2300)

I dont think Mcdavid could do that if you put him in the 80s-00s era. He is a bit worse than 99 and 66 talent wise and dominance wise

Greatest looks at longevity. It is why Gordie how is often ranked 2nd in greatest listing ahead of Lemieux and Orr.

Mcdavid has a prime now of 8 years of being the best player in the world on a cumulative basis and on a single season basis no worse than 3rd. His peak + prime is already legendary.

He needs to have amother 5-6 years of ~top 3 at worst play and the longevity will be there

Lemieux needed to care about stretching more. Conditioning was a major problem for him and contributed to most of his issues. Not everything, but he did himself no favors with some of his habits.

 

[Mrfenn92]

He could. But he also might not.

 

[sepHF]

I have learned over the years to never bet against McDavid, but it's going to be hard.

I suspect the Oilers might also rest the big boys this year before the playoffs if they're in a comfortable enough position

 

[hamzarocks]

Lemieux needed to care about stretching more. Conditioning was a major problem for him and contributed to most of his issues.

His bad diet and well poor luck with cancer also sucked

Bad diet was common though in 80s and 90s.

Wish Lemieux and Gretzky were both in late 80s so we got to see them in 00s, 10s and 2020s. Would have been incredible to see them with modern medicine/tech/training methods

 

[syz]

Well he's sure as hell not shooting as much as he was last season, so why not may as well go for 100 assists. He had 89 last year and that was with Hyman, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto unable to finish into empty nets most of the time. Hyman's finishing a lot more this year so that's probably helping.

 

[Calderon]

I wouldn't bet against him last year he wanted the rocket and 60 goals he did it this year I think his goal was 100 assists and think he is gonna do it, he wants to be known as a goat he is so driven and competitive, he knows where and how he is viewed, he is competing with legends.

There might be something like this going on, I mean personal numeric goals.

The thing is, Gretzky lead the league in both goals and assists simultaneously and did it multiple times, smashing all the records — not that McDavid should be compared to The Great One in every conceivable turn as it's a bit unreasonable.

I voted no because last season McDavid had a good chance of matching Yzerman's as the highest non-Gretzky/Lemieux point total and Ovechkin as the highest goal total by active player and failed just slightly in both. 100 assists is a really tough feat — rarer than Matthews' 70 goal pursuit — and seems like too much of a long shot as of now.

 

[WalterLundy]

Longevity doesnt go into best for me

Like sure if a guy plays only 4 or 5 years then he probably wont be best

Lemieux put ~1.9ppg and has the highest gpg I think in history.

Lemieux not having 2700-2900 pts is due to injuries/cancer not ability. Think hed be ~2500 pts in that era. (Crosby for comparison ~2300)

I dont think Mcdavid could do that if you put him in the 80s-00s era. He is a bit worse than 99 and 66 talent wise and dominance wise

Greatest looks at longevity. It is why Gordie how is often ranked 2nd in greatest listing ahead of Lemieux and Orr.

Mcdavid has a prime now of 8 years of being the best player in the world on a cumulative basis and on a single season basis no worse than 3rd. His peak + prime is already legendary.

He needs to have amother 5-6 years of ~top 3 at worst play and the longevity will be there

Mario if he played all the games and was healthy would have landed between the 2600 to 2800 range. Perhaps even close to 2900 depending on how long you have him play. If Gretzky wasn’t destroyed in 1991 then he’d have had 3100 as a pretty conservative estimate. Sadly things didn’t work out that way. I wish both of them had those respective totals. It would also be cool to see certain players in that era as well to see how they could have compared.

You aren’t wrong in any of this (other than Bossy having the highest career goals per game average). You do have to consider though that Lemieux’s per game averages are preserved more than Gretzky or anyone else playing 500+ more games. He’d still be second in PPG but it wouldn’t be 1.88. It would be in the 1.7s just with many more games. The per game averages fall as you play more games post prime.
Gretzky and Lemieux at 745 games (ML’s games played at initial retirement):

ML: 613 G, 881 A, 1494 PTS (2.01)
WG: 616 G, 1158 A, 1774 PTS (2.38)

If both players retired at those games played Gretzky and Lemieux would be first and second respectively for goals per game, assists per game and points per game career averages. This is also virtually the same career games played as bossy which is the only reason he owns the record. I agree with your McDavid assessment 100%.

 

[WalterLundy]

True and that’s how I’m looking at it. Lemieux will always be the better player, but McDavid is close and seems like he’s going to have longevity as well. That’s going to go a long way for people who like to see a full career arc.

Don’t be surprised in 10 or so years when he is frequently argued as second to only Gretzky if he plays out the rest of his career with health.

No doubt I believe Lemieux is better than McDavid. I’ve always maintained Gretzky, Lemieux and McDavid in that order since I’ve been watching but if you adjust and consider these levels it really shows you how remarkable McDavid is (and how much better Gretzky is than everyone). This is first 9 years for each player to match McDavid currently.

2016-24 NHL league averages:
EVG: 2.26, PPG: 0.60, SHG: 0.08

1980-88 NHL league averages:
EVG: 2.77, PPG: 0.93, SHG: 0.13

1985-93 NHL league averages:
EVG: 2.56, PPG: 0.98, SHG: 0.14

2006-14 NHL league averages:
EVG: 1.96, PPG: 0.73, SHG: 0.09


All adjusted to 2016-24 levels:

Connor McDavid (16-24):
619 GP: 933 PTS (1.51) (124 per 82)
599 EVP, 317 PPP, 17 SHP

Sidney Crosby (06-14):
550 GP: 787 PTS (1.43) (117 per 82)
538 EVP, 242 PPP, 7 SHP

Mario Lemieux (85-93):
577 GP: 895 PTS (1.55) (127 per 82)
582 EVP, 282 PPP, 31 SHP

Wayne Gretzky (80-88):
696 GP: 1265 PTS (1.82) (149 per 82)
915 EVP, 283 PPP, 67 SHP

 

[VainGretzky]

McDavid on pace for exactly 100 now needs 36 in last 29 games

 

[Incognito]

I’m saying he does it, mainly because at this point it just feels like betting against McDavid in any way is a fool’s errand.

 

[Dust]

McDavid is gonna hit 100 assists and Matthews is gonna hit 70 goals, and there will be many debates about which was better all summer long

I am absolutely here for this chaos haha. That would be great. I do hope that Kuch and Mack keep their paces up too, this is great for fans.

 

[pcruz]

Mario if he played all the games and was healthy would have landed between the 2600 to 2800 range. Perhaps even close to 2900 depending on how long you have him play. If Gretzky wasn’t destroyed in 1991 then he’d have had 3100 as a pretty conservative estimate. Sadly things didn’t work out that way. I wish both of them had those respective totals. It would also be cool to see certain players in that era as well to see how they could have compared.

You aren’t wrong in any of this (other than Bossy having the highest career goals per game average). You do have to consider though that Lemieux’s per game averages are preserved more than Gretzky or anyone else playing 500+ more games. He’d still be second in PPG but it wouldn’t be 1.88. It would be in the 1.7s just with many more games. The per game averages fall as you play more games post prime.
Gretzky and Lemieux at 745 games (ML’s games played at initial retirement):

ML: 613 G, 881 A, 1494 PTS (2.01)
WG: 616 G, 1158 A, 1774 PTS (2.38)

If both players retired at those games played Gretzky and Lemieux would be first and second respectively for goals per game, assists per game and points per game career averages. This is also virtually the same career games played as bossy which is the only reason he owns the record. I agree with your McDavid assessment 100%.

While it is true that per game numbers decrease with games played outside the prime years, is it safe to say that battling cancer and debilitating back injuries during those same prime years affects them pretty heavily as well?

 

[MessierThanThou]

McDavid tends to pick up speed as the season goes on. I think he'll reach it and run away with the Art Ross.

 

[WalterLundy]

While it is true that per game numbers decrease with games played outside the prime years, is it safe to say that battling cancer and debilitating back injuries during those same prime years affects them pretty heavily as well?

84-85: 79: 108 (1.37)
85-86: 79: 141 (1.78)
86-87: 79: 134 (1.70)
87-88: 79: 172 (2.18)
88-89: 79: 207 (2.62)
89-90: 75: 175 (2.33)
90-91: 75: 191 (2.55)
91-92: 75: 180 (2.40)
92-93: 79: 211 (2.67)
93-94: 75: 153 (2.04)
94-95: 48: 89 (1.85)
95-96: 77: 177 (2.30)
96-97: 77: 124 (1.61)
97-98: 75: 127 (1.69)
98-99: 75: 127 (1.69)
99-00: 75: 127 (1.69)
00-01: 73: 129 (1.77)
01-02: 73: 94 (1.29)
02-03: 70: 95 (1.36)
03-04: 70: 63 (0.90)

Total:
1487 GP: 2824 PTS (1.90)

‘90, ‘91, ‘92, ‘94 and ‘95 are all following Gretzky’s ppg percentage differential from ‘82 to his corresponding peak years commencing in ‘88. What Gretzky did is unprecedented so giving Mario this pattern is unrealistically generous. ‘95 he didn’t play at all so we don’t have a reference for that but if you take the other completely changed 4 seasons in real life he averaged a combined 1.96 during them. This projection not only gives him nearly double the games but 2.33 ppg. He also gets an extra 200 point pace season as well as a 197 pace year. He only put up 84% of that per game production in real life so that is a substantial boost. He was nowhere close in real life but now his ailments are gone in this scenario. Then league scoring per year is factored in. ‘98-‘00 are the average of ‘97 and ‘01 which is also quite generous given ‘97 he was younger and only put up 1.61. Him getting to keep is ‘01 PPG is also beyond generous given all of the wear and tear up to this theoretical point. If he plays all the way through he likely retires at the lockout which is why this ends at 03-04. He also plays the same games as Gretzky in this hypothetical. Him being at 1.90 in this compared to his real life 1.88 shows you just how preserved his PPG is in reality. 2.01 falling to 1.88 is nothing compared to 2.32 (same seasons played as Lemieux at his ‘97 retirement) to 1.92.

He comes very close to matching what Gretzky did but can’t quite do it if he has the perfect career for himself with no issues. This being Gretzky with no what ifs. If Gretzky is given his what ifs then like I said in the previous post he is at 3100 conservatively.

 

[VainGretzky]

Now on pace for 102

 

[authentic]

84-85: 79: 108 (1.37)
85-86: 79: 141 (1.78)
86-87: 79: 134 (1.70)
87-88: 79: 172 (2.18)
88-89: 79: 207 (2.62)
89-90: 75: 175 (2.33)
90-91: 75: 191 (2.55)
91-92: 75: 180 (2.40)
92-93: 79: 211 (2.67)
93-94: 75: 153 (2.04)
94-95: 48: 89 (1.85)
95-96: 77: 177 (2.30)
96-97: 77: 124 (1.61)
97-98: 75: 127 (1.69)
98-99: 75: 127 (1.69)
99-00: 75: 127 (1.69)
00-01: 73: 129 (1.77)
01-02: 73: 94 (1.29)
02-03: 70: 95 (1.36)
03-04: 70: 63 (0.90)

Total:
1487 GP: 2824 PTS (1.90)

‘90, ‘91, ‘92, ‘94 and ‘95 are all following Gretzky’s ppg percentage differential from ‘82 to his corresponding peak years commencing in ‘88. What Gretzky did is unprecedented so giving Mario this pattern is unrealistically generous. ‘95 he didn’t play at all so we don’t have a reference for that but if you take the other completely changed 4 seasons in real life he averaged a combined 1.96 during them. This projection not only gives him nearly double the games but 2.33 ppg. He also gets an extra 200 point pace season as well as a 197 pace year. He only put up 84% of that per game production in real life so that is a substantial boost. He was nowhere close in real life but now his ailments are gone in this scenario. Then league scoring per year is factored in. ‘98-‘00 are the average of ‘97 and ‘01 which is also quite generous given ‘97 he was younger and only put up 1.61. Him getting to keep is ‘01 PPG is also beyond generous given all of the wear and tear up to this theoretical point. If he plays all the way through he likely retires at the lockout which is why this ends at 03-04. He also plays the same games as Gretzky in this hypothetical. Him being at 1.90 in this compared to his real life 1.88 shows you just how preserved his PPG is in reality. 2.01 falling to 1.88 is nothing compared to 2.32 (same seasons played as Lemieux at his ‘97 retirement) to 1.92.

He comes very close to matching what Gretzky did but can’t quite do it if he has the perfect career for himself with no issues. This being Gretzky with no what ifs. If Gretzky is given his what ifs then like I said in the previous post he is at 3100 conservatively.

I don’t see any way Lemieux would’ve had more points if you gave both full health, but a good chance I think Lemieux would finish with more goals due to how he aged in his 30s even if it wasn’t for long periods of time and his mid 30s were completely cut out I still think he would’ve been comfortably better than Gretzky at that point in their careers, and if they started their careers in the same season perhaps he would have an even bigger edge with less lower scoring seasons towards the end of his full length career

 

[wetcoast]

2 more apples tonight to give him 68 apples.

He needs 32 and has 27 games left.

 

[WingsFan95]

Career high 22 game point streak and you gotta think if he's close......I say yes.

 

[WingsFan95]

Yeah I can see 2nd for rankings

He is a Lebron-lite (or maybe Gretzky was Jordan on drugs lol)

It should have been Gretzky vs Lemieux eternal debate like MJ and Lebron in the NBA

NHL we end with a lower version likely of that in Gretzky vs Mcdavid

It is by no means a conclusion that LeBron James is the 2nd greatest player behind Jordan. Considering value and eras, Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem are very much in conversation and even Kobe with twice as many defensive team selections, etc. James has compiled the career stats due to straight from High School and as great as his longevity is it's also due to modern medicine/diagnosis and a softer league. This is now becoming an issue with overrated Patrick Maholmes who can never be compared to Montana, Elway or Marino given different eras.

Hockey in a way is worse because you have three rather distinct positions on the ice so there really cannot be an overall GOAT since I could well argue Patrick Roy over Gretzky in terms of value. Nevermind some of Orr's unmatched accomplishments whereas Lemieux very much matched Gretz save for longevity.

These 2 things seem to contradict themselves don't they?

I mean when I think of the best player of all time I think of best peak, prime, career, longevity, playoffs everything and McDavid is tracking to possibly be the second best ever.

Of course he has to actually do it.



How about most wonderfull player or brilliant while we are at it?

Do you ever account for environment? Because for all the jokes about Babe Ruth being some wittily fat guy we are now entering a much softer era across all sports due to the investment factor in star players. There was indeed massive protection for Gretzky and everyone knew it but you could well argue it's even worse now. Makes you think Howe is rather untouchable since he obliterates anyone in longevity, had the individual and team accomplishments and dominance for his time.

2 more apples tonight to give him 68 apples.

He needs 32 and has 27 games left.

Yeah I honestly think it's more likely he hits 100 assists than Matthews hitting 70 although it's beginning to look as if both are inevitable.

 

[Shark Finn]

No he will stop at exactly 98 in tribute to Pulpujarvi

 

[ijuka]

I've tried that yet can't get even close. Pulju too talented.

 

[Calderon]

It's not like McDavid didn't care about RS numbers even though having playoff success does loom higher in his mind year to year. Now that he hasn't held the scoring lead even once and his goals totals are nothing to write home about I'm guessing getting 100 assists is the one thing that would make this regular season memorable. Granted he can still win the Art Ross but he'll have to really compete for it as Kucherov and MacKinnon are bringing their respective peak productions to the table. If he plays the rest of the season with a clear pass first mentality he can make it. I voted no in another poll a short while back but I'm changing my vote now.

 

[jigglysquishy]

I didn't think he would do it. But he's kept up the crazy pace. Now on pace to do it is he only plays 78 games.

 

[viper0220]

He will hit 100 assists because to him the name on the back is bigger than the name on the front of the jersey.

 

[HolyHagelin]

I voted no, but i am rooting for it. It just seems likely that his teammates will go cold finishing or the team will get goalied a few times down the stretch, and it doesn’t take much to derail this.