Will Cole Caufield become a 50 goal scorer?

Will Cole Caufield become a 50 goal scorer?

  • Yes

  • No


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KevSkillz4

Registered User
Apr 11, 2016
6,993
11,370
40 yes

50 I doubt it

50 goal scorers are very rare. We've only had a few.

I'm a Habs fan and big fan of Caufield, but I agree with you. Maybe 1-2 season that he can put 50 goals, but per season? That's rare. 40 goals per season for a scorer like him, it's realistic thing. He is not only a scorer, he can pass too. So 40g, 40a assists per season, it's fantastic.
 

Michoulicious

Registered User
Dec 9, 2014
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You people are getting a little overexcited. Let’s wait until he gets more than 30 goals in a year before talking like this.
I mean c'mon. He has 30 goals in his last 50 games.

It is not a small sample size anymore! Kid is a superstar, he'll challenge soon Matthews, McDavid and co. for the Richard and he's only 21.

Habs fans can certainly get excited.
 

Zalos

Berktwad
Feb 2, 2009
1,861
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Quebec
I mean c'mon. He has 30 goals in his last 50 games.

It is not a small sample size anymore! Kid is a superstar, he'll challenge soon Matthews, McDavid and co. for the Richard and he's only 21.

Habs fans can certainly get excited.
That's cherry-picking stats. Caufield hasn't had a season with over 30 goals. And here we're talking about 50 goals, which is a feat over 95% of NHL players will never accomplish. I'm a Habs fan, but let's chill the f*** out. It's been less than 12 games this year. You're comparing him to the best players in the league.

I'm all for partisanship and cheering for the best players on your team, but let's give him one or two extra full years before declaring we have a 50 goals scorer on our team.
 
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MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
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During Caufield superbe scoring run:

He did score at a 49.2 goals by 82 games rate while shooting at 18.1%

So it is not a situation where Ovechkin could score 56 in just 79 while shooting just 10.6% with just how much volume he was making-getting, it would be a nail bitter to the end and would need to play 80 games type.

I am not sure how we go other than maybe ? with such a boderline case, that said outside Ovechkin-Matthews and a short peak of Stamkos, pretty much all 50 goals scorer have been in the everything has to go really right category in the last 20 years.
 
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Mrb1p

PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Dec 10, 2011
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That's cherry-picking stats. Caufield hasn't had a season with over 30 goals. And here we're talking about 50 goals, which is a feat over 95% of NHL players will never accomplish. I'm a Habs fan, but let's chill the f*** out. It's been less than 12 games this year. You're comparing him to the best players in the league.

I'm all for partisanship and cheering for the best players on your team, but let's give him one or two extra full years before declaring we have a 50 goals scorer on our team.
ThATs CheRrY pICkIng StATs

95% OF NHL players

This year hes scoring at a .67% gpg
Last year, with the worst cold streak of his career, he scored at a .35 gpg.
He needs a .6 ppg over 70 games to hit 50.

Even reverting back to his career worse, clearly outlier number, he would score 33 goals in a full 82 games this season.

Theres no scenario in which he doesn't score 40 goals

Assuming he tails off and hits his record low, he will have a 40 goal pace over his last 120ish games at the end of this year. There is quite a bit of statistical significance to the bigger picture.

What do you expect will happen in the next 70 games that will take his GPG down to below .6 GPG ?
 
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ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
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Too much talent to not get there one day.

Barring him getting hurt he obviously will.

In my opinion it's not a question of if but rather of when.

This season.

Yeah he will. wouldnt be surprised if its this season. Anyone who watches him knows hes special.

Lots of people in this thread are overestimating how easy it is to get to 50. It's really quite hard/rare. Some guys who currently have zero 50 goal seasons:
- McDavid
- Patty Kane
- Pastrnak
- MacKinnon
- Tavares
- Point
- Marchand (hasn't even hit 40)
- Kessel (hasn't even hit 40)
- etc.

In the past 15 seasons (2007/08 through 2021/22), these are the only players who have hit 50:
- Ovy
- Stamkos
- Crosby
- Matthews
- Drai
- Geno
- Kovalchuk
- Perry (bit of a lucky, "everything went right" outlier season)
- Kreider (bit of a lucky, "everything went right" outlier season)

I certainly think Caufield has a legit chance to hit 50 at some point in his career, but it could very easily go either way. There are a lot of incredible goal scorers who hit the 40s a few times, but never quite 50. Even a lot of all time great goal scorers have fewer than you'd think, e.g.:
- Jagr: 3
- Kovy: 2
- Sakic: 2
- Stammer: 2
 
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Toby91ca

Registered User
Oct 17, 2022
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I think people in this thread are overestimating how easy it is to get to 50. It's really quite hard/rare. Some guys who currently have zero 50 goal seasons:
- McDavid
- Patty Kane
- Pastrnak
- MacKinnon
- Tavares
- Point
- Marchand (hasn't even hit 40)
- Kessel (hasn't even hit 40)
- etc.

In the past 15 seasons (2007/08 through 2021/22), these are the only players who have hit 50:
- Ovy
- Stamkos
- Crosby
- Matthews
- Drai
- Geno
- Kovalchuk
- Perry (bit of a lucky, "everything went right" outlier season)
- Kreider (bit of a lucky, "everything went right" outlier season)

I certainly think Caufield has a legit chance to hit 50 at some point in his career, but it could very easily go either way. There are a lot of incredible goal scorers who hit the 40s a few time, but never quite 50. Even a lot of all time great goal scorers have fewer than you'd think, e.g.:
- Jagr: 3
- Kovy: 2
- Sakic: 2
- Stammer: 2
Bit of an outlier for Kreider last year is an understatement. He had been in the league for quite a while, fairly consistently put up 20-24 goals a year, had a couple years where he got to 28 goals....his previous career high....then, all of a sudden, at 30 years old....scores 52?

I looked up to find the stats in terms of how many in history have scored 50. It's 91 players out of a total of 7,623.....so 98.8% of all players that have played in the NHL have not scored 50 in a year. Now, this stat is a bit skewed because the total of 7,623 will include guys that never played a full year, but either way....it's rare.
 
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AvroArrow

Fire Keefe
Jun 10, 2011
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He scored 23 goals last year and we're only 12 games in so far, 50 goals is a massive feat. Maybe lets see if he can hit 30 or 40 first before we start claiming he'll be a 50 goal guy
 
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ponder

Registered User
Jul 11, 2007
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Bit of an outlier for Kreider last year is an understatement. He had been in the league for quite a while, fairly consistently put up 20-24 goals a year, had a couple years where he got to 28 goals....his previous career high....then, all of a sudden, at 30 years old....scores 52?

I looked up to find the stats in terms of how many in history have scored 50. It's 91 players out of a total of 7,623.....so 98.8% of all players that have played in the NHL have not scored 50 in a year. Now, this stat is a bit skewed because the total of 7,623 will include guys that never played a full year, but either way....it's rare.
Also, those all time numbers are HEAVILY skewed by the 80s, which was an insanely high scoring period of hockey, the likes of which we've never seen before (or since). The 80s were a perfect storm of:
- Most coaches were all-in on transition oriented games, there were odd man rushes like mad
- Offensive skill/techniques/schemes were approaching modern levels, but defensive skill/techniques/schemes hadn't improved in the same way
- Goaltending still sucked (small goalies, small pads, no butterfly style, etc.)

Many years throughout the 80s there were 8-10 players scoring 50+, and through the whole decade never less than 5 50 goal scorers per year. While recently there have been some years with 0 50 goal scorers, and we haven't had 5 in one year since 1995/96.

And it wasn't just the 80s - the years surrounding the 80s were also very high scoring, e.g. late 70s to mid 90s, really. In 1992/93 there were 14 different players who scored 50 (compared to just 9 in the past 15 years combined)!

It's harder to score 50 now. I'll bet if you look only at players who entered the league from the mid-90s onwards, the % who've hit 50 is significantly less than 1.2% (like it is for "all time").
 
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izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
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I'm a Habs fan and big fan of Caufield, but I agree with you. Maybe 1-2 season that he can put 50 goals, but per season? That's rare. 40 goals per season for a scorer like him, it's realistic thing. He is not only a scorer, he can pass too. So 40g, 40a assists per season, it's fantastic.
Seems like we need to define what the question is. I voted "yes" but I sure don't expect him to put up 50 on a regular basis. I voted "yes" thinking it could be done once
 

Koivu11

HFBoards Sponsor
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May 4, 2004
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Seems like we need to define what the question is. I voted "yes" but I sure don't expect him to put up 50 on a regular basis. I voted "yes" thinking it could be done once
Being able to do it for at least one season is what I intended when asking the question.
 
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Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
35,310
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It's kind of normal to be cautionary considering how few players hit that mark because of how difficult it is. Still, I'd invite skeptics to revisit his 30 goals so far since the 49 games St-Louis has been coaching. He has the kind of shot that IMO makes him a lock to get 50 at least once. Not only is his shot very accurate, he's incredibly versatile in how he scores, but most of all, he makes it look easy and goalies are cleanly beaten. It's not a luck driven sequence.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
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Also, those all time numbers are HEAVILY skewed by the 80s, which was an insanely high scoring period of hockey, the likes of which we've never seen before (or since). The 80s were a perfect storm of:
- Most coaches were all-in on transition oriented games, there were odd man rushes like mad
- Offensive skill/techniques/schemes were approaching modern levels, but defensive skill/techniques/schemes hadn't improved in the same way
- Goaltending still sucked (small goalies, small pads, no butterfly style, etc.)

Many years throughout the 80s there were 8-10 players scoring 50+, and through the whole decade never less than 5 50 goal scorers per year. While recently there have been some years with 0 50 goal scorers, and we haven't had 5 in one year since 1995/96.

And it wasn't just the 80s - the years surrounding the 80s were also very high scoring, e.g. late 70s to mid 90s, really. In 1992/93 there were 14 different players who scored 50 (compared to just 9 in the past 15 years combined)!

It's harder to score 50 now. I'll bet if you look only at players who entered the league from the mid-90s onwards, the % who've hit 50 is significantly less than 1.2% (like it is for "all time").

You forgot the single biggest factor that drove higher offense: the grand expansions diluted the talent level.

Mix today's AHL teams with the NHL to turn it into a 60+ teams league and you would get similar results because the best players would have much more weaker teams to feed on.

Do the opposite, take the best 150 players and make a league of 6 teams and the best player's totals would go down significantly.
 

Toby91ca

Registered User
Oct 17, 2022
2,197
1,630
You forgot the single biggest factor that drove higher offense: the grand expansions diluted the talent level.

Mix today's AHL teams with the NHL to turn it into a 60+ teams league and you would get similar results because the best players would have much more weaker teams to feed on.

Do the opposite, take the best 150 players and make a league of 6 teams and the best player's totals would go down significantly.
But there were 21 teams in the 80's and now there are 32....I get that the NHL was mostly North American players in the 80s as well.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
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Hockey Mecca
But there were 21 teams in the 80's and now there are 32....I get that the NHL was mostly North American players in the 80s as well.

6 teams before 1967. From 1967 to 1980, in only 13 years, the league grew 3.5 times its original size, from 6 to 21 teams. This is by far the biggest factor in creating more offense in the 80's. The 70's were also more offensive than the previous decades.
 

Rude Dog

Registered User
Dec 22, 2008
4,150
3,136
Always been impressed with his ability to find the open areas. Elite shot. I think he is more likely to be in the 35 - 40 range but maybe. Doubt consistently. Eventually MSL is going demand that his line start playing more defence which will reduce the chances. For now, it's all about having fun with the Habs. That will change over the next few years.
 

ole ole

Registered User
Oct 7, 2017
11,937
6,021
Seems like we need to define what the question is. I voted "yes" but I sure don't expect him to put up 50 on a regular basis. I voted "yes" thinking it could be done once
Doing it once makes you a 50 goal scorer no matter how you try to cut the pie.
 

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