WC Handy*
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As your probably have heard by now, the rumor is that the owners must honor the 04-05 contracts to get the 24% rollback. Most responses about this have been that the owners shouldn't even considering honoring them. What I'm going to show you below is exactly why they SHOULD honor them.
Most teams are better off by honoring them to get the 24% than by starting off after this lockout with no rollback and the 05-06 contracts.
Only Boston, Dallas, New Jersey, and Toronto are better off starting off with the 05-06 contracts and no rollback. A few others (Buf, Phi) are debateable, but IMO better off honoring the 04-05 contracts.
Most teams are better off by honoring them to get the 24% than by starting off after this lockout with no rollback and the 05-06 contracts.
Only Boston, Dallas, New Jersey, and Toronto are better off starting off with the 05-06 contracts and no rollback. A few others (Buf, Phi) are debateable, but IMO better off honoring the 04-05 contracts.
DISCLAIMER
All numbers used below are from the following THIS PDF file of one of the NHLPA's proposals.
Anaheim Might Ducks
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $30.4M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 9 players, $26.9M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional $6.5M, the Ducks will have 9 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 9 players are Ozolinsh, Salei, Niedermayer, Skoula, Leclerc, Chistov, Pahlsson, Ward, and Holmqvist.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Atlanta Thrashers
2004-05 Contracts: 21 players, $18.4M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 12 players, $18.9M without rollback
Conclusion: : For $500K LESS, the Thrashers will have 9 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 9 players are Nurminen, Tjarnqvist, Sutton, Majesky, Vigier, Larsen, Brennan, Simon, Kloucek
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Boston Bruins
2004-05 Contracts: 11 players, $21.5M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 4 players, $3.8M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional 17.7M, the Bruins will have 7 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 7 players are Thornton, Gonchar, Lapointe, Samsonov, Gill, Axelsson, and Girard.
Verdict: Don’t honor 04-05 contracts.
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Buffalo Sabres
2004-05 Contracts: 25 players, $28M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 9 players, $12M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional 16M, the Sabres will have 16 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 16 players are Satan, Biron, Briere, Dumont, Hecht, Grier, Afinogenov, Connolly, Pyatt, Kotalik, Jillson, Tallinder, Brown, BOulton, Campbell, and Rohloff.
Verdict: This is the only low payroll team that is even close, but if it were up to me, I’d probably lean towards… Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Calgary Flames
2004-05 Contracts: 22 players, $23.1M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 11 players, $16.9M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional 6.2M, the Flames will have 11 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 11 players are Kiprusoff, Langkow, Gelinas, REinprecht, Kobasew, Leopold, Clark, Ference, Eriksson, Nieminen, & Lombardi.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Carolina Hurricanes
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $21.3M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 7 players, $15.6M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional 5.7M, the Canes will have 11 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 11 players are O’Neill, Wesley, Cole, Adams, Cullen, Murray, Boulerice, Vrbata, Bayda, and St Jacques.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Chicago Blackhawks
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $19.1M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 8 players, $13.4M without rollback
Conclusion: : For an additional 5.7M, the Hawks will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Thibault, Berard, Arnason, Belle, Robidas, Poapst, Leighton, Nickulas, Nichol, and Moen.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Colorado Avalanche
2004-05 Contracts: 25 players, $40.3M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 11 players, $30M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional 10.3M, the Avs will have 14 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 14 players are Hejduk, Foote, Tanguay, Aebishcer, Skrastins, Sauer, Worrell, Hinote, Liles, Sauve, Hendrickson, Svatos, Hahl, and Kliazmine.
Verdict: Since they would only need to shave a couple million and already have a full roster of players… Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Columbus Blue Jackets
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $20.9M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 14 players, $25.1M without rollback
Conclusion: For $4.2M LESS, the BJ’s will have 4 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 4 players are Nash, Klesla, Svitov, and Hefferman.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Dallas Stars
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $40.7M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 8 players, $29.7M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional 11M, the Stars will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Modano, Zubov, Arnott, Morrow, Erskine, Ott, DiMaio, Sweeney, Kapanen, and Downey.
Verdict: Kind of a toss up, but because they’d need to shave a few million AND still add players to round out their roster… Don’t honor 2004-05 contracts
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Detroit Red Wings
2004-05 Contracts: 21 players, $43.4M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 16 players, $50.3M without rollback
Conclusion: For $6.9M LESS, the Wings will have 5 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 5 players are Yzerman, Dandenault, Kronwall, Zetterberg, and Williams.
Verdict: The Wings are screwed either way, but they’re much better off if the if they… Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Edmonton Oilers
2004-05 Contracts: 22 players, $23.4M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 12 players, $17.1M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $6.3M the Oilers will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Smyth, Brewer, York, Hemsky, Horcoff, Reasoner, Tores, Ulanov, Markkanen, and Stoll.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Florida Panthers
2004-05 Contracts: 18 players, $14.3M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 7 players, $8.4M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $5.9M the Panthers will have 11 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Luongo, Huselius, Van Ryn, Bouwmeester, Weiss, Hagman, Novak, Berglund, Hordichuk, Kwiatkowski, and Kolnik.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Los Angeles Kings
2004-05 Contracts: 22 players, $26.5M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 12 players, $20.6M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $5.9M the Kings will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Strake, Cechmanek, Robitaille, Cammalleri, Frolov, Belanger, Corvo, Quintal, Holland, and Pirnes.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Minnesota Wild
2004-05 Contracts: 20 players, $21.8M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 10 players, $18.2M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $3.6M the Wild will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Fernandez, Brunette, Mitchel, Zyuzin, Bouchard, Park, Daigle, E. Chouinard, Brandner, and M. Chouinard.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Montreal Canadiens
2004-05 Contracts: 17 players, $26.8M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 8 players, $19M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $7.8M the Canadiens will have 9 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 9 players are Theodore, Koivu, Markov, Ribeiro, Bulis, Komisarek, Ward, Bouillon, and Degenais.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Nashville Predators
2004-05 Contracts: 19 players, $19.7M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 9 players, $13.6M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $6.1M the Predators will have 10 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Sullivan, Legwand, G. Johnson, Hartnell, Hamuis, Eaton, Orszagh, Lilja, McKenzie, & Allison.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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New Jersey Devils
2004-05 Contracts: 24 players, $46.3M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 10 players, $20.2M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $26.1M, the Devils will have 14 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 14 players are Niedermayer, Stevens, Elias, Rafalski, Friesen, Gomez, Hrdina, Kozlov, White, Langenbruner, Martin, Hale, Gionta, & Brown.
Verdict: Do not honor 2004-05 contracts.
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New York Islanders
2004-05 Contracts: 17 players, $28.6M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 4 players, $20.5M without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $8.1M, the Islanders will have 13 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 13 players are Aucoin, Jonsson, Parrish, Scatchard, Kvasha, Bates, Asham, Martinek, Weinhandl, Butenschon, Hunger, Papineau, & Godard.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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New York Rangers
2004-05 Contracts: 15 players, $31.7M* after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 6 players, $28.5M* without rollback
Conclusion: For an additional $3.2M, the Rangers will have 9 more players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 9 players are Dunham, Poti, Rachunek, Weekes, Lundmark, Blackburn, Ortmeyer, Betts, & Scott.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
* Jagr’s whole salary is included in amount
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Ottawa Senators
2004-05 Contracts: 20 players, $31.7M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 10 players, $31.1M without rollback
Conclusion: For $600K, the Senators would have an additional 10 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 10 players are Hossa, Havlat, Fisher, White, Spezza, Volchenkov, Prusek, Vermette, Neil, & Langfeld.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Philadelphia Flyers
2004-05 Contracts: 24 players, $50M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 13 players, $44.5M without rollback
Conclusion: For $5.5M, the Flyers will have an additional 11 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 11 players are Hackett, Burke, Ragnarsson, Johnsson, Gagne, Lapoint, Esche, Somik, Radivojevic, Sharp, & Seidenberg.
Verdict: This is close because either way the Flyers will have to get under the cap, but given the fact that the 11 players only average 500K extra added to their payroll, they should honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%.
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Phoenix Coyotes
2004-05 Contracts: 28 players, $31.8M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 21 players, $37.3M without rollback
Conclusion: For $5.5M LESS, the Coyotes will have an additional 7 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 7 players are Morris, Boucher, Mara, Taffe, Nazarov, and Cleary.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Pittsburgh Penguins
2004-05 Contracts: 16 players, $11.1M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 7 players, $7.2M without rollback
Conclusion: For $4.1M, the Penguins will have an additional 9 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 9 players are Tarnstrom, Rozsival, Koltsov, Melichar, Bradley, Malone, Eastwood, Strbak, & Abid.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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San Jose Sharks
2004-05 Contracts: 22 players, $24.6M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 10 players, $17.7M without rollback
Conclusion: For $6.9M, the Sharks will have an additional 12 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 12 players are Stuart, Marleau, Rathje, Sturm, Korolyuk, Ekman, Primeau, Parker, Preissing, Davison, Dimitrakos, & Fahey.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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St Louis Blues
2004-05 Contracts: 19 players, $33.4M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 13 players, $31.4M without rollback
Conclusion: For $2M, the Blues will have an additional 6 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. One of those 6 players is Chris Pronger. The others are Khavanov, Salvador, Mayers, Johnson, and Rycroft.
Verdict: $2M to retain Pronger’s rights? Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Tampa Bay Lightning
2004-05 Contracts: 20 players, $30.8M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 9 players, $20.7M without rollback
Conclusion: For $10.1M the Lightning will have an additional 11 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts and accepts the rollback. Those 11 players are: Khabibulin, Lecavalier, Boyle, Andreychuk, Fedotenko, Lukowich, Roy, Afanasenkov, Taylor, Pratt, & Cibak.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%, leaving plenty of cap space to sign St. Louis
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Toronto Maple Leafs
2004-05 Contracts: 19 players, $46.6M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 8 players, $35.5M without rollback
Conclusion: For $11.1M, the Leafs will have an additional 11 players under contracts, but that would be them well above the rumored cap level.
Verdict: Don’t honor 04-05 contracts, but that could change depending on the rumored dispersal draft
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Vancouver Canucks
2004-05 Contracts: 21 players, $32.9M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 6 players, $15.5M without rollback
Conclusion: For $17.4M the Canucks will have an additional 15 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts to get the rollback. Those 15 players are: Naslund, Morrison, Cloutier, Ohlund, Sopel, Salo, Malik, Sedin, Sedin, Allen, Chubarov, May, Cooke, Ruutu, & King.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%
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Washington Capitals
2004-05 Contracts: 14 players, $13.9M after rollback
2005-06 Contracts: 4 players, $9.2M without rollback
Conclusion: For $4.7M the Capitals will have an additional 10 players under contract if the league honors the 2004-05 contracts to get the rollback. Those 10 players are: Witt, Halpern, Eminger, Aulin, Doig, Boumedienne, Peat, Pettinger, Willsie, & Whitfield.
Verdict: Honor 04-05 contracts to get 24%