Why the Devils Should Tank the Season by Larry Brooks

[Tundra]

I concur completely.

http://nypost.com/2014/12/06/devils-need-a-nosedive/

Thirty-one years after founding father John McMullen cast the vote that broke the front office tie between those in the organization who wanted to tank for Mario (club president Bob Butera and director of player personnel Marshall Johnston on that side) and those who wanted to go the straight and narrow (general manager Max McNab and coach Tom McVie), the Devils get another shot at this.

Click to read more...

 

[Ripshot 43]

I could've written this article in one word...

McDavid

 

[njdevil26]

Brooks really isn't paying attention if he thinks someone will trade for Salvador. The dude has straight up disappeared with no updates on his injury.

 

[Cowbell232]

Larry Brooks... I don't know what the Devils org did to him while he worked there, but the guy oozes hatred of everyone associated with the team every time he writes.

 

[njdevil26]

I agree on tanking for McDavid though haha. The kid has 51 points in 18 games this season. Holy crap.

 

[Comparison Ford]

I mean do we really have to try to tank? I think this team is going to just wind up losing and missing the playoffs pretty badly already. Now with the new draft rules we will definitely have a shot at that number one pick, whether we want to or not.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I'm guessing either Larry Brooks doesnt realize the NHL changed the lottery odds, and made it only a 1 in 5 chance of the #1 team winning, or he simply isn't very good at math.


EDIT: My money is on both of the above.

 

[njdevil26]

It would be quite ironic if we finally tank and don't get 1st overall.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Though I do agree with this bit:

Jaromir Jagr, not as dominant as he was a season ago but still capable and dangerous offensively, should merit significant interest on the market as a rental property, and so should Marek Zidlicky. A contender might bite on Michael Ryder. If healthy, Martin Havlat might bring a mid-rounder. Someone will take Steve Bernier at a low cost. And though less likely, maybe a buyer remembering the good old days would go in on Bryce Salvador.

I'd keep Ryder.

But the rest of the aging high salary guys would be shown the door for younger NHL players, or draft picks.

 

[Colin226]

The team that finishes last has a 100% chance of at least getting Eichel. But watch, the #14 team with a 1% chance to win the lottery will be the team that gets McDavid

 

[BenedictGomez]

It would be quite ironic if we finally tank and don't get 1st overall.

No; it wouldn't.

It would be mathematically likely. There's almost no point in tanking.

 

[BenedictGomez]

The team that finishes last has a 100% chance of at least getting Eichel. But watch, the #14 team with a 1% chance to win the lottery will be the team that gets McDavid

I have no problem with that.

THIS is why I've always wanted the "lottery" (it's called that for a reason even if it wasnt really run as one) to function the way it is now.

It now drastically decreases the chances of a team "tanking", and gives all teams not making the playoffs a chance (granted a small one in some cases) to move up the board ladder. The way the 2016 draft will be run is IMO the right answer.

 

[Tundra]

I'm guessing either Larry Brooks doesnt realize the NHL changed the lottery odds, and made it only a 1 in 5 chance of the #1 team winning, or he simply isn't very good at math.


EDIT: My money is on both of the above.

I think the goal is bottom 5. Bottom 5 gets you a reasonable shot at the two prized prospects. I think that is what Brooks is referring to.

 

[NJDevs26]

I'm guessing either Larry Brooks doesnt realize the NHL changed the lottery odds, and made it only a 1 in 5 chance of the #1 team winning, or he simply isn't very good at math.


EDIT: My money is on both of the above.

I don't think a lot of fans realize the draft rules changed either tbh. The NBA Draft is hilariously unpredictable, that's what the NHL wants now.

 

[CKPLAYA]

Larry Brooks... I don't know what the Devils org did to him while he worked there, but the guy oozes hatred of everyone associated with the team every time he writes.

He couldn't keep his mouth shut to the press when we worked for the team. He then became the Devils beat writer for the Post I believe or the News and was subsequently banned from the locker room by Lou. Have to say, when he first started as a writer he was very good. Very informative and spoke the truth. That's what got him banned. After the banishment he has the mother of all grudges. Very similar to what happened with Randy Velishchek on the radio side. Randy was fantastic. Was not a homer at all. He was canned for being to critical of the team.

 

[Tundra]

He couldn't keep his mouth shut to the press when we worked for the team. He then became the Devils beat writer for the Post I believe or the News and was subsequently banned from the locker room by Lou. Have to say, when he first started as a writer he was very good. Very informative and spoke the truth. That's what got him banned. After the banishment he has the mother of all grudges. Very similar to what happened with Randy Velishchek on the radio side. Randy was fantastic. Was not a homer at all. He was canned for being to critical of the team.

Really? That's sad to hear. Now it starts to crystallize why Dano and Steve are so painfully bland.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Here's how 2016 will go. There will be THREE separate picks.

And this should forever rid the "competitive" hockey world of the word, "tank", as it should.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery.

 

[CKPLAYA]

I have no problem with that.

THIS is why I've always wanted the "lottery" (it's called that for a reason even if it wasnt really run as one) to function the way it is now.

It now drastically decreases the chances of a team "tanking", and gives all teams not making the playoffs a chance (granted a small one in some cases) to move up the board ladder. The way the 2016 draft will be run is IMO the right answer.

What most are calling "tanking" here I would just call a "purge". Even if they don't get a top 2 pick and get McDavid at least it will signify the acceptance of where this team is and the direction they need to go in. Just do it because it should be done. Regardless. it's time.

 

[Billdo]

Don't like Brooks but he's dead on. You could tolerate a few years of mediocrity if there was a clear plan. There doesn't seem to be one with us and there isn't any help on the way.

 

[BenedictGomez]

I think the goal is bottom 5. Bottom 5 gets you a reasonable shot at the two prized prospects. I think that is what Brooks is referring to.

No, it really doesnt.

You need to finish LAST (currently) to be assured of the #2 pick. Finishing 5th means there's a > 90% chance you're not getting #1 or #2.

Finishing 2nd to last only gives you at 1/3 chance (i.e. statistically improbable) of picking #1 or #2. This couldn't be clearer.

The only logical conclusion one can draw from this article, is that Larry Brooks does not understand the math involved in the NHL lottery. Bolded for emphasis.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I have no problem with that.

THIS is why I've always wanted the "lottery" (it's called that for a reason even if it wasnt really run as one) to function the way it is now.

It now drastically decreases the chances of a team "tanking", and gives all teams not making the playoffs a chance (granted a small one in some cases) to move up the board ladder. The way the 2016 draft will be run is IMO the right answer.

so you dont think its beneficial to have the HIGHEST shot at getting #1 overall?

that makes no sense.

 

[BenedictGomez]

so you dont think its beneficial to have the HIGHEST shot at getting #1 overall?

that makes no sense.

Yes it does.

Teams are not likely to go through the excruciatingly painful process of tanking and losing when:

A) They are statistically likely going to lose the draft anyway
B) The "tanking benefit" is mathematically small & incremental rather than mathematically huge

Take a look at the chart showing the percentage by spot, and you'll quickly understand this.

 

[GameSeven]

I mean do we really have to try to tank? I think this team is going to just wind up losing and missing the playoffs pretty badly already. Now with the new draft rules we will definitely have a shot at that number one pick, whether we want to or not.

This pretty much sums it up.

 

[Devils Dominion]

The Devils did basically tank in '83/'84.

They only won 1 of their last 13 games.

Pittsburgh was simply more blatant/brazen about tanking, and they won out with Mario.

Muller was a great Devils player in his day, obviously not even close to Mario, but at the end of the day the Devils won 3 Cups compared to Pittsburgh's 2 while Mario was an active NHL player.

Though Mario's value & mark on the Pens was even greater off the ice.
They are now a constant sellout, get strong ratings and have the best marketing dept in the league IMO.

Pre-Mario, they were joke of a franchise on & off the ice.

 

[Brooklyndevil]

I pray to God that for the first time since being our GM, Lou sees what we all see and most of us wants. It's obvious this coming draft we can take one step back that will allow the organization to take two steps forward. Really, what else can he do? We don't have enough trade bullets, unless you move a Greene, Severson or Merrill. Other than that we have to pray that Queenvile, Boucher and Matteau can be decent players going forward. That's it, maybe guy like Black and some others may turn out as decent 3rd 4th liners. We have nothing else. If Lou truly wants to win, sacrifice this season and move some of these old farts who may bring back 2, 3 or 4. Do it Lou.