Why the Avs will regress next year

[Pete Mitchell]

If the Av's Corsi/Fenwick numbers get better but their point total decreases, is that still regressing?

 

[ASmileyFace]

You realize that the Avalanche's advanced metrics may be quite different next year, right?

There's no need to lose (or even loose, which also sounds exciting) one's **** explaining.

I'm almost 100% sure their advanced stats will be miles better. I personally think they will end up in the top 15 and maybe even the top 10 next year.

But if they end up with similar stats and success people will loose (lol) their **** trying to explain.

 

[Avs44]

I think at this point, with how little we know about how these stats really matter, the collapse of the Leafs has given a lot of credibility to these stats. It doesn't mean it's the final verdict, but the evidence is now tilted in favor of these stats.

I believe you're making a mistake by assuming the Leafs set the basis for other teams. They should be considered an abnormality, not the norm. See they're collapse against Boston in the playoffs. They've made the playoffs once in the past decade, and the one time they made it was in a 48 game season which was apparently not enough time for them to choke their spot away.

The Avs fans now sound much like the Leaf fans were then. There are ways to argue around advanced stats (like quality of shots) but it doesn't matter in the end.

It does not matter in the end? One must wonder why a team like the Devils was among the best in the league in terms of these so called advanced stats(they are not even advanced, corsi is the shots equivalent of +/- with decimals) yet the actual results are not so good. In the end, they missed the playoffs and the Avs did, so I'm going to go ahead and say that in the end it does not really matter. There are multiple teams that don't fit into the ranking of teams created by these stats. Stats in the NHL have not yet advanced to the point where one can accurately discern how good a team is without watching them. I'm more than aware of the flaws in the Avs and that their style of play is not sustainable unless Varlamov continues to be superman, but lets not pretend advanced stats are the be all end all determining factor.

That's another thing: many Avs fans are saying this article is obvious by saying that of course there will be some regression, but the article is saying they will be hard pressed to even make the playoffs, so it's not as meaningless as they are painting it.

In a division with Chicago, St.Louis and Minnesota with teams such as Dallas right there it does not take an article or any stats to say that for your average NHL team it may be a battle to make the playoffs. Of course the Avs will not win the division again, and if they don't, I don't call it regression. At the beginning of the year I predicted that Avs would be a borderline playoff team for two years. The exceeded my expectations this year, but nothing changes next year for me. 2016 is when I expect the Avs to really become a contender.

 

[Ceremony]

If the Av's Corsi/Fenwick numbers get better but their point total decreases, is that still regressing?

Ooh, what a conundrum.

 

[11111111111]

How does Leafs collapsing give credibility to these stats? It's randomness you are trying to infuse with meaning.

Canucks were 8th-9th in fenwick/corsi in the league this year and collapsed from 8th in the standings last December to 25th in the league when the season ended. They had 30 points in 2014. Leafs had 39 points in 2014. It's pretty much the same as what happened with Leafs but they had good instead of bad corsi so no one is arguing that it means anything.

People are making such a big deal of the few cases (Leafs this year, Wild a couple of years ago) where teams have a rough second half of the year when they have poor advanced stats as if it somehow was inevitable and proves the amazing predictive powers of corsi/fenwick while completely ignoring the more numerous cases where it doesn't happen or when the opposite happens.

Bad goaltending will still sink good possession teams. See the New Jersey Devils for proof of this.

The thing is, it is hard to control goaltending. Look at what St. Louis did this year, and how that Miller trade worked out. There are always things we cannot predict.

It isn't as hard, however, to control systems that preach possession. Perhaps teams lack talent, so of course there may be varying degrees of success in maintaining possession, but if something has shown to be a decent predictor for long-term success, it is worth noting.

David Backes recently explained Hitchcock's philosophy. I am paraphrasing, but the idea is that some of sports is always going to be chance, always going to be determined by the human element, etc. However, there are parts of the game that can be controlled. The Blues try to control what they can to give themselves the best chance to win. Luck, and other external factors still happen, but possessing the puck is something that teams can do to increase their chances of sustained long-term success.

Colorado might not regress next year, sure. But if one team in the West falters, between teams like LA, CHI, and STL, and Colorado, I pick the team that never has the puck to regress. It is simply more likely, though - of course - it cannot be guaranteed.

 

[Mr Positive]

How does Leafs collapsing give credibility to these stats? It's randomness you are trying to infuse with meaning.

Canucks were 8th-9th in fenwick/corsi in the league this year and collapsed from 8th in the standings last December to 25th in the league when the season ended. They had 30 points in 2014. Leafs had 39 points in 2014. It's pretty much the same as what happened with Leafs but they had good instead of bad corsi so no one is arguing that it means anything.

People are making such a big deal of the few cases (Leafs this year, Wild a couple of years ago) where teams have a rough second half of the year when they have poor advanced stats as if it somehow was inevitable and proves the amazing predictive powers of corsi/fenwick while completely ignoring the more numerous cases where it doesn't happen or when the opposite happens.

The success of the Leafs gives credibility because their success put the credibility of advanced stats into question. The teams are also obvious mirrors of each other which is why I'll talk about that team a lot when talking about the Avs.

(edit: deleted because already mentioned above)

at any rate, like I said, this isn't the final verdict, and I'll be curious about what happens to the Avs. There's also ways to prevent a collapse from happening, which is why a team like the Leafs overpaid for Clarkson, but fixing it is not as easy as adding supplementary players.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Avalanche is team full of young players, I think they will improve in the summer. I doubt they win the division again next season (very unlikely when you have Chicago&St.Louis in your division), but they will make playoffs again IMO. Colorado's core is still young, their time will come. It will be very hard to top this season, especially regular season success, because they did overachieve this season by a lot.

 

[Mr Positive]

Actually, quality of shots, and the quantification thereof should be the next big breakthrough in the advanced research of hockey. It's not arguing around, it's actually a relatively large part of hockey.

that may be so but until it's implemented and proven to be reliable it's not credible.

I agree that it is very likely important, but at this point it seems way too subjective to be able to say which team is better than which in this area yet.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

You mean they won't win their division?

Not too surprising or daring projection to make really

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Bad goaltending will still sink good possession teams. See the New Jersey Devils for proof of this.

Cory Schneider was the downfall of the Devils? More like their shots weren't enough and they didn't score because shots =/= goals.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Cory Schneider was the downfall of the Devils? More like their shots weren't enough and they didn't score because shots =/= goals.

It stands to reason that he was referring to Martin Brodeur, who played nearly half of the Devils' 2013-14 games despite playing at about replacement level.

 

[11111111111]

Cory Schneider was the downfall of the Devils? More like their shots weren't enough and they didn't score because shots =/= goals.

Martin Brodeur played 39 games with a .901 SV%. I specifically chose the Devils because they had a choice to use a better goalie and didn't, which makes their possession numbers less likely to reflect the actual strength of the team. However, you are right to point out that their shots weren't enough, as I noted that some teams simply don't have the same talent as others and may not be able to produce the same shooting percentage. This point about shot quality is actually trying to be quantified and answered now, I believe, which promises to be interesting.

I would be willing to bet, as I did on Minnesota beating Colorado in 7 games , that if the Devils gave Schneider the actual starter job, they would have finished higher. I can't guarantee it, but the fact that the Devils' possession stats don't align with their NHL standings has, at least in my opinion, quite a lot to do with playing a sub-par goaltender for almost 50% of their games.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

It stands to reason that he was referring to Martin Brodeur, who played nearly half of the Devils' 2013-14 games despite playing at about replacement level.

They were stupid playing Brodeur so much. Basically ruined their season. Brodeur is done..

 

[Henkka]

Roy winning Jack Adams would jinx this for sure. Almost every Jack Adams winner has a worse season after that winning year.

Honeymoon is over.

 

[ArWKo]

I think for the most part you'll find Avs fans to be of the consensus that next year they will see some regression in the standings. I think it's very unlikely that the goaltending next year is at the level it was this year, and that - with their advanced stats taken into consideration, was a huge reason the Avs had such a great season this year.

I think though that if they can add the right pieces to the defense this offseason, the Avs could regress points-wise in the standing while seeing themselves play a better all around game and seeing the advanced stats jump up from the bottom of the barrel where they were this season.

Defensively, they are still a couple of years+ away from having some of their drafted blue line talent come up and make an impact (Bigras, Siemens), but if they can find some pieces to plug and and play in the mean time I don't see why they can't continue to complete for playoff position and challenge for the division going forward.

 

[bbud]

A very young talented core who should get better with experience cant see a big regression my own biggest question was Roy and whether he would be able to adjust and leave some of his junior coaching antics behind and I was surprised at how well he did.
Overall they should be a solid playoff contender for a while may not be a legit cup team as of yet and west is tough .

 

[Hasbro]

Bad goaltending will still sink good possession teams. See the New Jersey Devils for proof of this.

So by the same token wouldn't good goaltending invalidate a bad Corsi?

 

[Hasbro]

that may be so but until it's implemented and proven to be reliable it's not credible.

Which hasn't happened with Corsi/Fenwick.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

If the Av's Corsi/Fenwick numbers get better but their point total decreases, is that still regressing?

Conundrum!!!!

It really helps bring up the point: What's more important?

 

[The Thin White Duke]

A bit off topic here but does anyone think a team would have a winning record if their primary focus was their advanced stats? A team that wasn't playing a game to win but to out-possess and out-chance the other team regardless of the score? Would a winning record be a side effect of being Corsi-hunters?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Conundrum!!!!

It really helps bring up the point: What's more important?

You answered the question with your last question.

These are intended to be leading indicators - suppose the indicators are low, but the results are high. If the results decline but the indicators get better, then that's self-consistent.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

A bit off topic here but does anyone think a team would have a winning record if their primary focus was their advanced stats? A team that wasn't playing a game to win but to out-possess and out-chance the other team regardless of the score? Would a winning record be a side effect of being Corsi-hunters?

Teams wouldn't do that. In general, teams attempt to outscore their opponents, and the way to do that is to outpossess and outchance their opponent.

It's similar to a goaltender's goal - is the goaltender's goal to win games or to stop pucks directed at him? Clearly, it's to win games. How does he best accomplish that? By stopping pucks directed at him.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don't think anyone really knows the trajectory the Avs will take. Typical lottery teams don't have records that go 95 69 95 68 88 67 (projected) 112. Everyone just wants to look at the 29th to 3rd jump but what about taking the whole last 7 years into account. I don't have the answers either but I don't think it's fair just to chalk it up to all a fluke.

And to the person that suggested Berra will split with Varly, one was given 4 million dollars and the other was given 30 million dollars. Follow the money, it's not that difficult.

 

[Aceonfire*]

I don't think anyone really knows the trajectory the Avs will take. Typical lottery teams don't have records that go 95 69 95 68 88 67 (projected) 112. Everyone just wants to look at the 29th to 3rd jump but what about taking the whole last 7 years into account. I don't have the answers either but I don't think it's fair just to chalk it up to all a fluke.

And to the person that suggested Berra will split with Varly, one was given 4 million dollars and the other was given 30 million dollars. Follow the money, it's not that difficult.

Tell that to Luongo-Schneider or Hiller-Andersen/Fasth/Gibson

Ward-Khudobin, Crawford- Raanta..etc etc

Did I say the split would be 50-50? A tandem doesn't have to be.

And just because they pay him more, that doesn't give him absolute job security. If Varlymov slumps the job is Berra's to take.

IF Varlymov posts average numbers instead of his Vezina numbers that 5.9 cap hit is going to look terrible.

Massive goalie deals always look bad in the end.

 

[BF3]

There is a 100% chance of the Avs regressing - they will not hit 112 points next season. I'd expect them to land right around 95-100 points next season, comfortably in the playoffs but not competing for the top record in the West like they did this year. They were extraordinarily lucky by almost any advanced metric. It finally caught up the Toronto late in the year, it will probably bite Colorado next season.

Worse luck, better advanced stats, regression from this past season. And if they have to play Chicago or STL in round 1 then they probably will be knocked out in round 1.