Why the Avs will regress next year

[Dr Quincy]

You guys are right, a team that's been poor or has young players will never improve. I should just stop wasting my time following them. I'll just root for Chicago because that's so much easier. At least their fans are guaranteed to be happy.

No you are right. Colorado is the only team with young players. Young players automatically improve every single year, and every non-young player (Hedja for instance) sustain their level of play and never get hurt.... unless they are non-young players on teams other than Colorado, in which case they regress greatly.

You can write 100 reasons why you think the Avs will be better next year, but it doesn't mean they will. If you are right I give you permission to gloat. If you are wrong, I won't expect an admission of your mistake.

 

[Bullseyes]

So pretty much every analyst took the Avs in that series and most on these boards agreed. Hell, even Vegas had them winning but somehow you knew they would fail. Interesting. Also interesting that you decided to wait until after the series to call it predictable. Untimely injuries killed the Avs chances in that series and it's not even debatable.

Um, no, I'm not waiting till after the series to call it predictable. I have been saying since the regular season that Colorado is overrated. I voted for Minnesota to win that series. So no, I didn't wait. I didn't buy into the Colorado hype - bad defense - EVEN WITH BARRIE - and even with Duchene, a team that was constantly outshot. Apparently that's now a recipe for success, until of course it catches up with you.

To the first part: I didn't understand why everyone thought Colorado would win. Beats me.

 

[Hasbro]

Honestly... did you read the article? Because it wasn't generic at all.

Treating Corsi and Fenwick like it's gospel, assumption player performance is set in stone, ignoring any context, not taking into account the POSSIBILITY of roster change in the off season.

It's well trod ground at this point.

 

[jsalz16]

Um, no, I'm not waiting till after the series to call it predictable. I have been saying since the regular season that Colorado is overrated. I voted for Minnesota to win that series. So no, I didn't wait. I didn't buy into the Colorado hype - bad defense - EVEN WITH BARRIE - and even with Duchene, a team that was constantly outshot. Apparently that's now a recipe for success, until of course it catches up with you.

To the first part: I didn't understand why everyone thought Colorado would win. Beats me.

I guess I'll take your word because the link you provided only gives the poll results (at least on my phone). I'm probably the biggest Avs homer around and even I didn't think they'd go far but thought they'd beat the wild. The only issue I have with your post was calling it the obvious prediction while it went to OT in game 7 while the Avs were missing some pretty key pieces. They are not deep enough to overcome those losses yet. Anyway, guess we'll see next year how far this team regresses. Personally, of course repeating this season is optimistic but I def see them as a playoff team.

 

[Nihiliste]

Meh I'm almost certain that we won't finish 3rd in the regular season again. We clearly weren't that good. Where we actually end up, who knows? Lets wait and see what moves teams make over the summer.

I'll take the luck and the enjoyable season after some horrible luck for several years.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Um, no, I'm not waiting till after the series to call it predictable. I have been saying since the regular season that Colorado is overrated. I voted for Minnesota to win that series. So no, I didn't wait. I didn't buy into the Colorado hype - bad defense - EVEN WITH BARRIE - and even with Duchene, a team that was constantly outshot. Apparently that's now a recipe for success, until of course it catches up with you.

To the first part: I didn't understand why everyone thought Colorado would win. Beats me.

You picked Minnesota to win in seven games, and you can't understand why others might have picked Colorado?

 

[Lonewolfe2015]

That's great, but they weren't the 2nd best team in the West, so the fact that they finished there should tell everyone a lot.

The Avs losing the series vs. the Wild was one of the most predictable things that happened in this year's post season (and no, that's not because of Duchene or Barrie). They honestly were no different than the 2013 Maple Leafs, who shockingly (!) regressed this year. People can rag on advanced stats all they want, but there is nothing positive in being outshot in the majority of an 82 game season.

This is great. Losing your best forward and your most offensive dman doesn't influence the course of a series at all.

I mean, take away Parise and any one of Suter, Brodin or Spurgeon and the Wild lose in 5-6 games even WITHOUT Duchene and Barrie.

If anything, the Avs proved this year that shot differential is nothing more than a potential predictor of success, rather than the near-gospel it was held at before. I'd love to see a website pull the RSS feeds and calculate the average distance per shot Varlamov faced during the season to help support my argument he saw more shots due to the Avs playing a tighter slot and allowing perimeter shots (lower percentage ones).

 

[Menzinger]

This is great. Losing your best forward and your most offensive dman doesn't influence the course of a series at all.

I mean, take away Parise and any one of Suter, Brodin or Spurgeon and the Wild lose in 5-6 games even WITHOUT Duchene and Barrie.

If anything, the Avs proved this year that shot differential is nothing more than a potential predictor of success, rather than the near-gospel it was held at before. I'd love to see a website pull the RSS feeds and calculate the average distance per shot Varlamov faced during the season to help support my argument he saw more shots due to the Avs playing a tighter slot and allowing perimeter shots (lower percentage ones).

I don't think you'll find a single serious stats guy ever claim things like Corsi are absolutes. The stats community has been pretty adamant from the start that these things are just indicators - a couple more zealot posters on hfboards may take things a bit too far mind you, but most of the main bloggers/journalists who have embraced advanced stats are well aware of its limitations.

Randy Carlyle and the leaf's front office staff spent all season boasting about how the "shot quality" against the leafs was poor, and we all saw how that turned out. Believe me, I really, really sympathize with your position (I spent all of last year rolling my eyes at the advanced stats crew), and there is a possibility that the Avs continue to advance next season - but i've seen this song and dance too many times now to know what's probably going to happen. On our boards, posters are acting like Bernier won't regress in the slightest next season, but he probably will, and I can see the leafs getting a bottom five finish quite easily unless we undergo some serious roaster changes.

 

[S E P H]

Sure or if you looked and even with those players they relied on their goalie to bail them out for the majority of the season. Whether people like advanced stats or not, I think it showed with the Leafs that being outshot and winning isn't sustainable. The Avalanche are no different there.

And even with those injuries (and some of them are going on with every team), people still thought they'd win that series vs. the Wild. But I thought over that 7 game series the Wild were easily the better team, even when Duchene or Barrie were in the line up. People were saying they'd be #1 or #2 in the Eastern Conference had they played there. That's how highly this site thought of them for some reason.

Practically every single thing of this post is wrong.

 

[Hasbro]

I don't think you'll find a single serious stats guy ever claim things like Corsi are absolutes. The stats community has been pretty adamant from the start that these things are just indicators - a couple more zealot posters on hfboards may take things a bit too far mind you, but most of the main bloggers/journalists who have embraced advanced stats are well aware of its limitations.

it's well more than a couple and happens outside of HF (our trade board is our unique shame). Moneyball is the Atlas Shrugged of Sports only without the promise of it's blogosphere running off to the desert to die.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

This is great. Losing your best forward and your most offensive dman doesn't influence the course of a series at all.

I mean, take away Parise and any one of Suter, Brodin or Spurgeon and the Wild lose in 5-6 games even WITHOUT Duchene and Barrie.

Suter was the biggest difference maker for Minnesota. And usually it's Duchene for Colorado. Missing him as being 100% healthy was a HUGE difference maker. Good point.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Believe me, I really, really sympathize with your position (I spent all of last year rolling my eyes at the advanced stats crew), and there is a possibility that the Avs continue to advance next season.

And I empathize with yours. However, I do not think Colorado will be another Toronto, as I'm sure players and coaches will attest to, the reason why they lost isn't their poor Corsi.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Um, no, I'm not waiting till after the series to call it predictable. I have been saying since the regular season that Colorado is overrated. I voted for Minnesota to win that series. So no, I didn't wait. I didn't buy into the Colorado hype - bad defense - EVEN WITH BARRIE - and even with Duchene, a team that was constantly outshot. Apparently that's now a recipe for success, until of course it catches up with you.

To the first part: I didn't understand why everyone thought Colorado would win. Beats me.

They were 3 minutes away from doing so. Credit to Minnesota to coming back, but I assure you, the Wild players will not confine that they steamrolled Colorado.

 

[AvsGuy]

This is a funny thread. Of course Colorado will likely regress next season – they went from 29th in the league to 3rd overall in one season, and the likelihood of being either 1st or 2nd overall gets slim when there are 3 in your division alone who could win the President’s trophy.

I’ll personally be blown away if the Avs slip out of the top 10. MacKinnon’s ascent is going to be exponential after those playoffs. Duchene, O’Reilly and Landeskog are cementing themselves as true star forwards. The money is there to logically fix the blue line. This young team beat out Chicago and St. Louis for the division title, and with the addition of defensive help and playoff experience, now all of a sudden we are the Maple Leafs? Get ****ed.

 

[jp7]

I don't think it will be as big of a regression as some people, but I also don't expect to see them in the top 3 next year. I could see them finishing 6th in the west. I will be somewhat surprised if they aren't in the playoffs again next year

 

[Mr Positive]

Treating Corsi and Fenwick like it's gospel, assumption player performance is set in stone, ignoring any context, not taking into account the POSSIBILITY of roster change in the off season.

It's well trod ground at this point.

I think at this point, with how little we know about how these stats really matter, the collapse of the Leafs has given a lot of credibility to these stats. It doesn't mean it's the final verdict, but the evidence is now tilted in favor of these stats.

The Avs fans now sound much like the Leaf fans were then. There are ways to argue around advanced stats (like quality of shots) but it doesn't matter in the end.

That's another thing: many Avs fans are saying this article is obvious by saying that of course there will be some regression, but the article is saying they will be hard pressed to even make the playoffs, so it's not as meaningless as they are painting it.

 

[Freudian]

I think at this point, with how little we know about how these stats really matter, the collapse of the Leafs has given a lot of credibility to these stats. It doesn't mean it's the final verdict, but the evidence is now tilted in favor of these stats.

The Avs fans now sound much like the Leaf fans were then. There are ways to argue around advanced stats (like quality of shots) but it doesn't matter in the end.

That's another thing: many Avs fans are saying this article is obvious by saying that of course there will be some regression, but the article is saying they will be hard pressed to even make the playoffs, so it's not as meaningless as they are painting it.

How does Leafs collapsing give credibility to these stats? It's randomness you are trying to infuse with meaning.

Canucks were 8th-9th in fenwick/corsi in the league this year and collapsed from 8th in the standings last December to 25th in the league when the season ended. They had 30 points in 2014. Leafs had 39 points in 2014. It's pretty much the same as what happened with Leafs but they had good instead of bad corsi so no one is arguing that it means anything.

People are making such a big deal of the few cases (Leafs this year, Wild a couple of years ago) where teams have a rough second half of the year when they have poor advanced stats as if it somehow was inevitable and proves the amazing predictive powers of corsi/fenwick while completely ignoring the more numerous cases where it doesn't happen or when the opposite happens.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

The Avs fans now sound much like the Leaf fans were then. There are ways to argue around advanced stats (like quality of shots) but it doesn't matter in the end.

Actually, quality of shots, and the quantification thereof should be the next big breakthrough in the advanced research of hockey. It's not arguing around, it's actually a relatively large part of hockey.

 

[Beerfish]

They overachiever this year so there is a good chance they will not be as successful next year, that is not to say their plan and program is not still sound and will be successful but they did have a lot of things go right this year. It happens in this league and people need to be cautious about expectations. The same thing can be said about the Sens the year before last, very much overachieved so when things dipped down this year it looked worse.

 

[The Kingslayer]

I think at this point, with how little we know about how these stats really matter, the collapse of the Leafs has given a lot of credibility to these stats. It doesn't mean it's the final verdict, but the evidence is now tilted in favor of these stats.

The Avs fans now sound much like the Leaf fans were then. There are ways to argue around advanced stats (like quality of shots) but it doesn't matter in the end.

That's another thing: many Avs fans are saying this article is obvious by saying that of course there will be some regression, but the article is saying they will be hard pressed to even make the playoffs, so it's not as meaningless as they are painting it.

The Avs were supposed to be a lottery team after this season, they were supposed to miss the playoffs, they weren't supposed to win their division etc. Everything was a fluke this season for the Avs. All their players suck.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Actually, quality of shots, and the quantification thereof should be the next big breakthrough in the advanced research of hockey. It's not arguing around, it's actually a relatively large part of hockey.

Absolutely. The jab is an effective tool to use but significant strikes count for more. Shots are nice but quality of shots against is what should matter. And if anyone watched any Avs game this season the amount of quality of shots against wasnt nearly as much as some of you momo's would think.

 

[Miri]

If the Avs regress, i hope they regress enough to take that McDavid kid :-D

On serious note, i can live with fewer points in regular season, as long as they make deeper run into playoffs than this year.

 

[MountainGoat]

maybe, maybe not

they'll still make the playoffs which is all that matters, that team is too good not to

 

[ASmileyFace]

One of the safest bets of the off season is that the avs will "regress." Just like so many have said they went from 29th to 3rd. That's a CRAZY big jump considering they are in the most competitive division in hockey. Advanced stats just aren't fleshed out enough yet to predict with certainty which teams succeed and which fail.

But god do I hope the avs repeat their success from this year just to watch the advanced stats people lose their **** trying to explain.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

But god do I hope the avs repeat their success from this year just to watch the advanced stats people loose their **** trying to explain.

You realize that the Avalanche's advanced metrics may be quite different next year, right?

There's no need to lose (or even loose, which also sounds exciting) one's **** explaining.